US Politics 47 - Biden Time (To Be Litigious)

[Relic]

continue...

[Relic]

Will Giuliani find anything? Will the GOP grow some testicles? Will Trump stop tweeting?

 

Find out next season on "America" 

[Mindwalker]

I'm just watching an interesting German panel discussion about the election (Presseclub). One of them puts into words my fears: The R know they will always be the minority, which is why they've been applying a scorched earth strategy for a long time.  McConnell will try to divide the D's: He'll make some deals/ compromises with Biden that will skew heavily Republcan, thus alienating the liberal/ prrogressive wing of the Dems.

PS: Why am I surprised T wants "concessions"?! Of course he would and I hope he won't get any substantial ones. Actually I hope he won't get any.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

PS: Why am I surprised T wants "concessions"?! Of course he would and I hope he won't get any substantial ones. Actually I hope he won't get any.

To crib from Donald Trump's favorite Democrat "I've got these fucking nuclear codes, and they want me to give them to somebody!  And I'm not gonna give them away for fucking free!"

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

One of them puts into words my fears: The R know they will always be the minority, which is why they've been applying a scorched earth strategy for a long time.

I think Republicans, and most other people, assumed that. But I think this election changes things, even though Democrats won. Things will change some once the remaining votes are counted (although other than NY, and maybe IL, plus AK to some extent, I'm not sure there's any more "blue shifts" remaining), but right now, Biden's popular vote margin is 2.8%. House Democrats popular vote margin is only 0.9%. Compare this to 2018, when House Dems' margin was 8.6%. 

And there's not much evidence of voters flipping to Republicans since 2018, not even in the Hispanic communities that swung so much. Instead it was a much higher turnout election and Republicans found a lot more irregular/unlikely voters to show up then Democrats did. It's impossible to know how things might further shift when Trump is no longer on the ballot, but it would be foolish to say that Republicans can't win legitimately.

Its one of the reasons I think most elected Republicans have stayed silent since the election, rather than support Trump (though obviously a few have); they did better then him in the election. And there's a decent chance they can win back at least some of their lost voters going forward, so long as they aren't seen as an extension of him. Meanwhile, they're hoping that by just staying silent, they won't piss off the MAGA crowd too much either.

[Maithanet]

The blue shift is definitely still happening.  Biden's popular vote lead is going to be 4, if not 5 points.  If the electoral college doesn't give Republicans a consistent advantage (and historically this changes cycle by cycle) then it is hard to see this election as a real sign of hope on the republican demographic decline.  Maybe if they can actually move back to 2004 levels with Hispanic voters, but that will take some work.

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The blue shift is definitely still happening.  Biden's popular vote lead is going to be 4, if not 5 points.  If the electoral college doesn't give Republicans a consistent advantage (and historically this changes cycle by cycle) then it is hard to see this election as a real sign of hope on the republican demographic decline.  Maybe if they can actually move back to 2004 levels with Hispanic voters, but that will take some work.

I see 4 points maybe, not 5. The California votes coming in have not been notably blue. In fact in some of the outstanding races there, Republican leads have been increasing. New York and Illinois seem like the only huge tranches of blue votes left, and I don't think there's enough there to get to 5 points.

But even if Biden does, my point stands. House Republicans did better than Trump, and did far better than they did in 2018; in a higher turnout election.

[Mindwalker]

As for what T could do in the lame duck period, Kirschner has a few ideas to distract him:

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I have a horrifying thought.  If Biden dies before inauguration does the person with the second highest vote tally in the EC become President?  Until inauguration the President elect and Vice-President elect are not in office or in the line of succession...

With the crazies screaming “fraud” could this turn into an actual play for power?

[Maltaran]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I have a horrifying thought.  If Biden dies before inauguration does the person with the second highest vote tally in the EC become President?  Until inauguration the President elect and Vice-President elect are not in office or in the line of succession...

With the crazies screaming “fraud” could this turn into an actual play for power?

I thought if it was after the EC voted then the VP-elect would become president-elect. Not sure what happens if it’s before the Ec vote though.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Maltaran said:

I thought if it was after the EC voted then the VP-elect would become president-elect. Not sure what happens if it’s before the Ec vote though.

I don’t think it is explicit...

[Larry of the Lawn]

9 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I don’t think it is explicit...

Yeah I thought if he does before the EC then the house votes with each state delegation getting one vote.

[Martell Spy]

Ocasio-Cortez Strikes Cautious Tone After Biden Win, Speaks Of Divisions Among Dems
The congresswoman warned the Democratic Party to not turn its back on the progressive, grassroots movements that she said helped it win the presidency.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-biden-democratic-party_n_5fa773fbc5b66009569b4349

Quote

 

Speaking to The New York Times on Saturday, Ocasio-Cortez, who convincingly won reelection this week with more than 68% of the vote in New York’s 14th District, criticized leaders and other elements of her party for being distrustful of her and other more progressive members — who, she argued, have been pivotal in winning votes and candidates for the party.

She also accused Democrats of historically forgetting about grassroots movements and activists once elections are over. She said it’s left to be seen whether the Biden administration will behave any differently; but if they don’t, she warned, the party’s future will be bleak.

“I don’t know how open they’ll be,” Ocasio-Cortez told the Times when asked how welcoming she believed Biden would be to more progressive politics. “And it’s not a personal thing. It’s just, the history of the party tends to be that we get really excited about the grassroots to get elected. And then those communities are promptly abandoned right after an election.”

If Biden’s administration follows this pattern, “I’d be bummed, because we’re going to lose,” Ocasio-Cortez said.

“It’s really hard for us to turn out nonvoters when they feel like nothing changes for them. When they feel like people don’t see them, or even acknowledge their turnout,” she added.

 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I will say that the proliferation of Trump flag bearing Trucks does seem to have been staunched.  I haven’t seen one in three days.  

[Larry of the Lawn]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Ocasio-Cortez Strikes Cautious Tone After Biden Win, Speaks Of Divisions Among Dems
The congresswoman warned the Democratic Party to not turn its back on the progressive, grassroots movements that she said helped it win the presidency.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-biden-democratic-party_n_5fa773fbc5b66009569b4349

 

Another great excerpt from that interview:

Quote

 

“If the party believes after 94% of Detroit went to Biden, after Black organisers just doubled and tripled turnout down in Georgia, after so many people organised Philadelphia, the signal from the Democratic party is the John Kasich won us this election? I mean, I can’t even describe how dangerous that is.”

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I will say that the proliferation of Trump flag bearing Trucks does seem to have been staunched.  I haven’t seen one in three days.  

Oh they are loud and proud still around here.  

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Relic said:

Will Giuliani find anything? Will the GOP grow some testicles? Will Trump stop tweeting?

Are you just trying to get people to repeatedly and emphatically say "no?"  Maybe trying to get them to to start singing this classic jingle:

 

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Biden's popular vote margin is 2.8%.

I agree with Maith, Biden's popular vote margin will almost certainly eventually be 4-5 points - higher than 2012 and only topped by 2008 this century.  If we didn't know he was "supposed" to win by 7-8, that's objectively a pretty great margin in this day and age.  To be clear, I'm not disagreeing with your overall point in this post in the slightest, just saying.

29 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I have a horrifying thought.  If Biden dies before inauguration does the person with the second highest vote tally in the EC become President?

@Maltaran is right, check the 20th Amendment Section 3:

Quote

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President.

If it happens before the EC the Dems can just instruct their electors to choose Harris.  That shouldn't be controversial, although I guess with this court that may well fuck things up, yeah.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Are you just trying to get people to repeatedly and emphatically say "no?"  Maybe trying to get them to to start singing this classic jingle:

 

I agree with Maith, Biden's popular vote margin will almost certainly eventually be 4-5 points - higher than 2012 and only topped by 2008 this century.  If we didn't know he was "supposed" to win by 7-8, that's objectively a pretty great margin in this day and age.  To be clear, I'm not disagreeing with your overall point in this post in the slightest, just saying.

@Maltaran is right, check the 20th Amendment Section 3:

If it happens before the EC the Dems can just instruct their electors to choose Harris.  That should be controversial, although I guess with this court that may well fuck things up, yeah.

I didn’t know about that provision of the 20th.  Thank you.

[Fragile Bird]

3 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Another great excerpt from that interview:

 

Who the hell is saying Kasich won the election for Biden? He couldn't even win Ohio for Biden.

[Denvek]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

If it happens before the EC the Dems can just instruct their electors to choose Harris.  That shouldn't be controversial, although I guess with this court that may well fuck things up, yeah.

Given that dead people can be elected in the US anyway (see that guy in North Dakota who died of Covid) surely they can vote for Biden & Harris anyway and then Harris would become President as per what you said about the 20th.