US Politics: finally we can get back to blaming each other

[IheartIheartTesla]

Normally Georgia runoffs tend to go Republican; but I wonder if at least the Warnock one will be an outlier because he is African American, and much of the gains the GoP makes in runoffs comes because of the drop in AA voters. Plus there may be election fatigue from Democratic voters having already done some heavy lifting there.

Still, I think Warnock may have a good chance. Osoff...not so sure.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

15 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

He's never going to use that kind of direct language that will put him in legal peril. Look at how he inspired the kidnapping plot of Whitmer and egged it on. 

I think it depends on how desperate he gets and how quickly his handlers can shut off his means of communication.

[Fury Resurrected]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

They couldn't be bothered to support Trump's inauguration when all they had to do was show up and cheer. They're not going to drive across the country to take part in an armed insurrection in which they'd be in personal danger (touch wood).

I wouldn’t be so sure of that, we saw them show up in Minneapolis during the uprising just so they could enjoy some apocalypse cosplay. Kyle Rittenhouse was here before Kenosha. The Boogaloo Bois stole guns and body armor out of the 3rd precinct. Somebody will show up and it’ll be exactly the worst ones

[Martell Spy]

31 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think it depends on how desperate he gets and how quickly his handlers can shut off his means of communication.

I just hope the men in the pretty white coats come for him eventually. I really want to see them use the butterfly net on him.

[Guy Kilmore]

Personally, I think the majority of the Republican party knows that Trump is toast in regards to being president.  All their activity and concern is on the Georgia Run Off and Trump demonstrated one thing, he gets people out to vote.

[horangi]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Normally Georgia runoffs tend to go Republican; but I wonder if at least the Warnock one will be an outlier because he is African American, and much of the gains the GoP makes in runoffs comes because of the drop in AA voters. Plus there may be election fatigue from Democratic voters having already done some heavy lifting there.

Still, I think Warnock may have a good chance. Osoff...not so sure.

Ossoff would, I assume, be on the same ballot as Warnock, so he may benefit on the 'coattails.'  I assume the Dems will be pretty fired up, but I really dont know if Trump losing fires up the republicans to block unified control or depresses turnout to be honest.  On one hand, I assume the more traditional R party voters would be a bit more savvy to the nature of politics (knowing what the hell the Senate does for example) and want to vote.  However, with the new wave of Rs that Trump captured, I could see them tossing their hands up and buying the message that its all rigged and why bother.  On the, umm, third hand, I could see some 'status quo ante' Biden voters choosing one or both republican senators to maintain split government.  Overall

[Jaxom 1974]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

They couldn't be bothered to support Trump's inauguration when all they had to do was show up and cheer. They're not going to drive across the country to take part in an armed insurrection in which they'd be in personal danger (touch wood).

There's a difference between driving cross country to clap and driving cross country to maybe shoot some stuff...

2 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

* I assume you mean guns.

On a larger sale, they are only slightly more organized than "antifa". They have their own little units, with different names for their little militias, but beyond that, suspicion of the outsider - even allied groups - is high. Working together is generally not their strong suit.

Especially if they are going up against real authority. Remember the reason why the Michigan governor-kidnapping plot failed...one of the guys ratted the group out because there was a possibility that they would have to actually kill the real police, and the love of authority is strong with most of these guys. 

It has to be the *right* authority though. Police? Good. FBI or military types? Those are gubmint folk...they can be shot at...

1 hour ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I wouldn’t be so sure of that, we saw them show up in Minneapolis during the uprising just so they could enjoy some apocalypse cosplay. Kyle Rittenhouse was here before Kenosha. The Boogaloo Bois stole guns and body armor out of the 3rd precinct. Somebody will show up and it’ll be exactly the worst ones

And despite what I have written above, Kyle Rittenhouse is likely more to the actuality of things.  Play at wannabe soldier, shoot people, freak out and run away...obviously the actual killing of people, that might actually stop some.of these cosplayers...

[Kalbear]

On the Georgia race: Ossoff is probably doomed but Warnock may win because a whole lot of Republicans hate Loeffler and won't vote for her. 

[Gorn]

10 minutes ago, horangi said:

Ossoff would, I assume, be on the same ballot as Warnock, so he may benefit on the 'coattails.'  I assume the Dems will be pretty fired up, but I really dont know if Trump losing fires up the republicans to block unified control or depresses turnout to be honest.  On one hand, I assume the more traditional R party voters would be a bit more savvy to the nature of politics (knowing what the hell the Senate does for example) and want to vote.  However, with the new wave of Rs that Trump captured, I could see them tossing their hands up and buying the message that its all rigged and why bother.  On the, umm, third hand, I could see some 'status quo ante' Biden voters choosing one or both republican senators to maintain split government.  Overall

I'm cautiously optimistic that we may see the reverse of the "Obama effect" and that many Trump voters will go back to being nonvoters if he isn't on the ballot.

Besides, morale among Georgia Democrats must be pretty high after actually flipping the state after 28 years.

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, horangi said:

Ossoff would, I assume, be on the same ballot as Warnock, so he may benefit on the 'coattails.' 

Good point.  While I've been rather dismissive of Ossoff's chances, Warnock's comparative advantage mobilizing the black vote should be effectively neutralized as one would assume those voters will fill in Ossoff's name as well.  What will be interesting to see is if there's a substantial amount of ticket-splitters likely simply due to Loeffler's unpopularity.

[Kalbear]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

They couldn't be bothered to support Trump's inauguration when all they had to do was show up and cheer. They're not going to drive across the country to take part in an armed insurrection in which they'd be in personal danger (touch wood).

I think this is dramatically wrong. What we've seen for the last 4 years are armed people going specifically to places that they thought would be able to get into violence. That was their goal. They're not interested in going to peaceful inaugurations and celebrations; they're looking to fight and kill people. 

[Werthead]

31 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

I think this is dramatically wrong. What we've seen for the last 4 years are armed people going specifically to places that they thought would be able to get into violence. That was their goal. They're not interested in going to peaceful inaugurations and celebrations; they're looking to fight and kill people. 

We've seen them doing that in areas where they thought they'd be in a majority or at parity, in areas relatively close to where they live and where they have a sympathetic local government and police force.

In intensely, intensely Democrat Washington DC, with tons of security around, with likely vast crowds of Democrat supporters (some of whom will be armed themselves), I think it's much less certain. Trump supporters have certainly been thin on the ground in DC so far to show their support for the President compared to protestors.

A key problem is that getting across the country to DC with guns is problematic for a lot of people. If you want to fly, you have to secure the gun in a hard-sided container which means you're probably not going to be flying with your favourite AR15. And jumping in a truck and driving across 20 states is impractical for a lot of people. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect some to show up, but I'd be surprised if it was in big enough numbers to be really an issue.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

22 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

I think this is dramatically wrong. What we've seen for the last 4 years are armed people going specifically to places that they thought would be able to get into violence. That was their goal. They're not interested in going to peaceful inaugurations and celebrations; they're looking to fight and kill people. 

I sort of agree - from my perch in Portland and having seen it in other areas of the state, it’s less about wanting to fight/kill than you instigate and intimidate.  They’re basically Trump w/o the podium, weekend warriors trolls showing up and trying to get people to pay enough attention to them that it validates their existence and identity and they can then be “against” whatever they feel at the moment - antifa, BLM, Biden presidency.

When you ignore them, they whine and scream louder  - when faced with consequences, law enforcement, fines, jail, they seem to cower and disappear (the majority).  But there are the loonies who show up in their midst, like any group, and actually do what all of these dipshits espouse and we get a Jeremy Christian or a Kyle Rittenhouse.

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

We've seen them doing that in areas where they thought they'd be in a majority or at parity, in areas relatively close to where they live and where they have a sympathetic local government and police force.

Not remotely true. Proud boys have been coming to Portland from the south. They came to Seattle when the police didn't want to deal with them at all. 

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

In intensely, intensely Democrat Washington DC, with tons of security around, with likely vast crowds of Democrat supporters (some of whom will be armed themselves), I think it's much less certain. Trump supporters have certainly been thin on the ground in DC so far to show their support for the President compared to protestors. 

Again, the comparison of Trump supporters to militia 'getting the call' is spurious. They aren't the same. 

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

A key problem is that getting across the country to DC with guns is problematic for a lot of people. If you want to fly, you have to secure the gun in a hard-sided container which means you're probably not going to be flying with your favourite AR15. And jumping in a truck and driving across 20 states is impractical for a lot of people. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect some to show up, but I'd be surprised if it was in big enough numbers to be really an issue.

You're really downplaying this. This is the thing that these people have been prepping and hoping for for YEARS. They've planned how to do this. They've rehearsed it. This isn't an inconvenience any more than getting to WorldCon with a Dalek costume is for fans. You're right that you're not going to get, like, a ton of randos - but there are literally hundreds of thousands of people in militias who have been dreaming of this opportunity - to save the country from an illegitimate takeover by a POTUS that asks them to be there. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

We've seen them doing that in areas where they thought they'd be in a majority or at parity, in areas relatively close to where they live and where they have a sympathetic local government and police force.

In intensely, intensely Democrat Washington DC, with tons of security around, with likely vast crowds of Democrat supporters (some of whom will be armed themselves), I think it's much less certain. Trump supporters have certainly been thin on the ground in DC so far to show their support for the President compared to protestors.

A key problem is that getting across the country to DC with guns is problematic for a lot of people. If you want to fly, you have to secure the gun in a hard-sided container which means you're probably not going to be flying with your favourite AR15. And jumping in a truck and driving across 20 states is impractical for a lot of people. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect some to show up, but I'd be surprised if it was in big enough numbers to be really an issue.

I'm not sure how much you know about people with who tend to have guns and like to show them off or show at this stuff but that isn't a problem at all. They'd just drive or rent a car.  It's way easier than flying, and until covid, was cheaper.

[DMC]

In this context, regardless of whether they turnout or not, the only practical concern of a bunch of morons larping with lethal weapons to rescue their besieged leader from the deep state is to ensure they don't turn their attention to the general public.

[Kalbear]

Just now, DMC said:

In this context, regardless of whether they turnout or not, the only practical concern of a bunch of morons larping with lethal weapons to rescue their besieged leader from the deep state is to ensure they don't turn their attention to the general public.

I disagree. Having a whole bunch of armed people having a shootout with DC police or secret service is not a great thing for our country either.

[DMC]

Just now, Killjoybear said:

Having a whole bunch of armed people having a shootout with DC police or secret service is not a great thing for our country either.

If you think these people are actually gonna through with death by cop you have a much different perception of these people than I do.

[Kalbear]

Just now, DMC said:

If you think these people are actually gonna through with death by cop you have a much different perception of these people than I do.

I am treating a lot of these people as fully radicalized extremist terrorists. That's entirely what they do in the service of their cause. Given the last 4 years I don't know why you wouldn't see this any other way. 

[Sci-2]

Some white nationalist shot up a garlic festival to stop the "invasion" of brown people. They almost kidnapped a governor because she asked them to wear masks...and of course the added bonus of enacting violence on a woman in authority.

The idea that these people won't be goaded into committing mass violence toward non-whites and/or targeted violence at government officials to prevent a "coup" against Trump seems overly optimistic.