Alyn Oakenfist Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 So this is one part that has always bugged me in AFFC, what did Cersei expect to happen if her schemes bore fruit and Margery and Loras were killed? Sure she might have plausible deniability with Loras going to Dragonstone of his own acrod and Margery getting tried by the Faith, but the Tyrells were not stupid. So with 2 massive Tyrell armies near King's Landing, one at Maidenpool and one at Storm's End, what did Cersei think would happen when she killed all her hostages and ties to the Tyrells. Did she not realize that the Tyrells would be able to sack King's Landing at will? Like I know that AFFC Cersei is delusional, paranoid and insane, but even for her this seems remarkably stupid. So what was her desired endgame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canon Claude Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: So this is one part that has always bugged me in AFFC, what did Cersei expect to happen if her schemes bore fruit and Margery and Loras were killed? Sure she might have plausible deniability with Loras going to Dragonstone of his own acrod and Margery getting tried by the Faith, but the Tyrells were not stupid. So with 2 massive Tyrell armies near King's Landing, one at Maidenpool and one at Storm's End, what did Cersei think would happen when she killed all her hostages and ties to the Tyrells. Did she not realize that the Tyrells would be able to sack King's Landing at will? Like I know that AFFC Cersei is delusional, paranoid and insane, but even for her this seems remarkably stupid. So what was her desired endgame? She is the Mad Queen. There’s really nothing else that’s needed to explain it. She’s drinking a lot to the point where she’s basically admitting that Jaime is Tommen’s father in public, and she’s so far gone that she doesn’t realise that she’s gaining weight. She’s also paranoid for herself and is obsessed with Tyrion to the point where she’ll get every dwarf in the world killed as long as he’s one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Steller Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: So this is one part that has always bugged me in AFFC, what did Cersei expect to happen if her schemes bore fruit and Margery and Loras were killed? Sure she might have plausible deniability with Loras going to Dragonstone of his own acrod and Margery getting tried by the Faith, but the Tyrells were not stupid. So with 2 massive Tyrell armies near King's Landing, one at Maidenpool and one at Storm's End, what did Cersei think would happen when she killed all her hostages and ties to the Tyrells. Did she not realize that the Tyrells would be able to sack King's Landing at will? Like I know that AFFC Cersei is delusional, paranoid and insane, but even for her this seems remarkably stupid. So what was her desired endgame? Why would Cersei be blamed if the Faith condemned Margaery for crimes that they say she committed? The Tyrells are not stupid enough to declare war on the Faith, especially since the main protectors of said faith are also the only house in the Reach that could truly challenge them on financial and martial levels. The Hightowers have always been ambitious and they’d probably love nothing better than to supplant the Tyrells and become the new rulers in the Reach with the support of the Faith and the devout population of Westeros. As for Loras, he volunteered in front of everyone, he’s a knight of the Kingsguard, and King’s Landing threw him a going-away party. How could Cersei be blamed? She got phenomenally lucky with Loras, though, and it’s funny to me that even she acknowledges it to herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexis-something-Rose Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Cersei doesn't think her shenanigans through because she thinks her plans and ideas are brilliant. She didn't think through the consequences of Tanda Stokeworth's fall, her broken hip before she tried to have Bronn killed. Then instead of giving Falyse men to help her take back her castle, she gives the woman to Qyburn. Cersei is stupid, she can't see past her self-inflated image. She strokes her own ego like nobody's business. When Cersei formulates her plans, she never takes into account the actions of others. She doesn't once consider that the High Sparrow would put Osney Kettleblack under the lash, when she herself had the Blue Bard tortured. Cersei functions with half a brain at the best of times. The other half of her brain is busy telling her how awesome she really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canon Claude Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said: Cersei doesn't think her shenanigans through because she thinks her plans and ideas are brilliant. She didn't think through the consequences of Tanda Stokeworth's fall, her broken hip before she tried to have Bronn killed. Then instead of giving Falyse men to help her take back her castle, she gives the woman to Qyburn. Cersei is stupid, she can't see past her self-inflated image. She strokes her own ego like nobody's business. When Cersei formulates her plans, she never takes into account the actions of others. She doesn't once consider that the High Sparrow would put Osney Kettleblack under the lash, when she herself had the Blue Bard tortured. Cersei functions with half a brain at the best of times. The other half of her brain is busy telling her how awesome she really is. All the more reason why I’m fully convinced that Cersei is the daughter of Aerys Targaryen and not Tywin Lannister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alyn Oakenfist Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, James Steller said: As for Loras, he volunteered in front of everyone, he’s a knight of the Kingsguard, and King’s Landing threw him a going-away party. How could Cersei be blamed? Blamed or not, the Tyrells would still sack KL and kill her if 2 of their children ended up dead because of Cersei. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexis-something-Rose Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Canon Claude said: All the more reason why I’m fully convinced that Cersei is the daughter of Aerys Targaryen and not Tywin Lannister. Oh, if I had to choose between her and Tyrion, I would choose her as Aerys's daughter. She even wants to build a white city on the other side of the Blackwater and I'm pretty sure she is going to succeed in cratering King's Landing. It's as subtle as a rock to the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floki of the Ironborn Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: Blamed or not, the Tyrells would still sack KL and kill her if 2 of their children ended up dead because of Cersei. You really think that Mace Tyrell would sack King's Landing? The man couldn't even take Storm's End when he was fighting on behalf of the establishment. This isn't Robert Baratheon or Tywin Lannister we're talking about here. Even Randyll Tarly would be too smart to see what a bad move that would be. Besides, Willas and Garlan are still alive and they're the best of the Tyrell kids anyway. Neither of them are rash hotheads either. At most, the Tyrells would simply withdraw their food supplies to King's Landing again, and watch as the city's population turns on their queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alyn Oakenfist Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Floki of the Ironborn said: You really think that Mace Tyrell would sack King's Landing? The man couldn't even take Storm's End when he was fighting on behalf of the establishment. This isn't Robert Baratheon or Tywin Lannister we're talking about here. Even Randyll Tarly would be too smart to see what a bad move that would be. Besides, Willas and Garlan are still alive and they're the best of the Tyrell kids anyway. Neither of them are rash hotheads either. The man may be a fool (or at least play the fool) but seems utterly devoted to his family, as for Olenna, she too seems devoted to her family with the added perk of being one of the best players out there. They'd sack KL in the name or Myrcella or whoever else they'd fancy without batting an eye, because at that point who is there to stop them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corbon Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 7 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: So this is one part that has always bugged me in AFFC, what did Cersei expect to happen if her schemes bore fruit and Margery and Loras were killed? Sure she might have plausible deniability with Loras going to Dragonstone of his own acrod and Margery getting tried by the Faith, but the Tyrells were not stupid. So with 2 massive Tyrell armies near King's Landing, one at Maidenpool and one at Storm's End, what did Cersei think would happen when she killed all her hostages and ties to the Tyrells. Did she not realize that the Tyrells would be able to sack King's Landing at will? Like I know that AFFC Cersei is delusional, paranoid and insane, but even for her this seems remarkably stupid. So what was her desired endgame? I would guess she thought that with no longer any skin in the game - ie no way to claim the iron throne for themselves any more, they would be forced to effectively withdraw from the game leaving her the undisputed master of the game of thrones. You need to actually have a claim. I doubt she actually thought about what else they might do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alyn Oakenfist Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, corbon said: I would guess she thought that with no longer any skin in the game - ie no way to claim the iron throne for themselves any more, they would be forced to effectively withdraw from the game leaving her the undisputed master of the game of thrones. You need to actually have a claim. I doubt she actually thought about what else they might do. That is badly underestimating what a grieving family might do just for revenge. As for a claim, they didn't need to depose Tommen, just to kill Cersei and install themselves as the puppet masters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corbon Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: That is badly underestimating what a grieving family might do just for revenge. This is Cersei... 4 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: As for a claim, they didn't need to depose Tommen, just to kill Cersei and install themselves as the puppet masters. They don't have any claim to be Tommen's puppet masters any more - they did, but not with Margery dead. Nor do they have access, without fighting for it - they can hardly claim to be looking after Tommens' best interest after declaring war on his family and attacking his city. His family could, in a reverse situation, but not the 'outsiders'. Not even Cersei thinks that you can just make yourselves puppet masters without at least a semblance of plausibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alyn Oakenfist Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, corbon said: Not even Cersei thinks that you can just make yourselves puppet masters without at least a semblance of plausibility. They have the plausibility of the large massive army without any rivals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Canon Claude said: She’s drinking a lot to the point where she’s basically admitting that Jaime is Tommen’s father in public I don't remember this moment, can you quote it please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canon Claude Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: I don't remember this moment, can you quote it please? I can’t recall the exact passage in AFFC, but tommen is complaining about not being able to practice riding because Cersei doesn’t think he’s ready, and she suddenly says “one day you will rule the lists as your father did.” Margaery loudly says that she didn’t know that King Robert was known for jousting and Cersei just blusters her way out of the situation. Point is she’s getting very careless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad King Bolton Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 I think Cersei merely thought she was clever enough to have covered herself while disposing of her rivals. Margaery could be blamed on the Faith and she thinks the Tyrells would be pissed and either set themselves at war with the Faith (Cersei pitting more rivals against each other) and Loras either getting himself killed through his own recklessness (has happened to many a young glory seeking knight) or capturing Dragonstone. Win win for Cersei in her mind each time. That's her likely thinking process. I don't believe it's stupid, just delusional. It's been pointed out more than once by Tyrion and I believe others that she's not as clever as she thinks she is, but she's making the calls alone and with nobody to disagree with her, so she's left to think of herself as getting away with it all. On another point though, I don't think even in grief that the Tyrells would be foolish enough to sack Kings Landing even if they did think Cersei was to blame if both Loras and Margaery died. Firstly, unlike in the show, these two grandchildren are not the only Tyrells. They have a larger family to consider and as many wise characters have mentioned in the early books, taking Kings Landing and holding it are two different things. If the Tyrells tried to take KL even with the largest army available, they set themselves up immediately as the largest threat and make themselves all vulnerable to the rest of Westeros which is not something Olenna has shown a willingness to do (she's truly a subtle OG ninja player). I'm sure they'd be outraged and take some action, I just don't think it would be all out war as they have no way to claim the throne or justify it outside of opinion and that endangers them in the macro scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Leftwich Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said: I don't remember this moment, can you quote it please? 51 minutes ago, Canon Claude said: I can’t recall the exact passage in AFFC, but tommen is complaining about not being able to practice riding because Cersei doesn’t think he’s ready, and she suddenly says “one day you will rule the lists as your father did.” Margaery loudly says that she didn’t know that King Robert was known for jousting and Cersei just blusters her way out of the situation. Point is she’s getting very careless. It is AFfC, Cersei 5: "I was watching from across the yard. You did very well, Tommen. I would expect no less of you. Jousting is in your blood. One day you shall rule the lists, as your father did." "No man will stand before him." Margaery Tyrell gave the queen a coy smile. "But I never knew that King Robert was so accomplished at the joust. Pray tell us, Your Grace, what tourneys did he win? What great knights did he unseat? I know the king should like to hear about his father's victories." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Leftwich Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said: So this is one part that has always bugged me in AFFC, what did Cersei expect to happen if her schemes bore fruit and Margery and Loras were killed? Sure she might have plausible deniability with Loras going to Dragonstone of his own acrod and Margery getting tried by the Faith, but the Tyrells were not stupid. So with 2 massive Tyrell armies near King's Landing, one at Maidenpool and one at Storm's End, what did Cersei think would happen when she killed all her hostages and ties to the Tyrells. Did she not realize that the Tyrells would be able to sack King's Landing at will? Like I know that AFFC Cersei is delusional, paranoid and insane, but even for her this seems remarkably stupid. So what was her desired endgame? Cersei did not try to kill them. (The misleading title doesn't help this. Do better.) Schemes are just that, schemes with plausible deniability, same as Tywin, only Cersei's generally don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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