GRRM is tweaking sample chapters. Desired/feared changes?

[sifth]

9 hours ago, Mithras said:

Blackfyres did not exist when AGoT was published. Varys in AGoT was a totally different character with still unknown motives. If I had to guess, I would assume that this original Varys was the equivalent if Pryrates from Memory, Sorrow & Thorn who was a mysterious priest and advisor to king. He was secretly trying to revive the Night's King equivalent in that story. Perhaps that is why Varys wanted the Dothraki invasion: to start a war of attrition and made the Realm bleed so that the invasion of the Others would be easier. This sits well with rather blatant clues in AGoT implying that Varys was a sorcerer.

Yea, this is pretty much how I feel as well, but as stated above certain things were clearly altered in the writing. At the very least it flows more natural than most series.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I haven't been hanging out here on a constant basis over the last 2-3 years; I just pop in for a bit every few months. As a result, I really had no idea what Lord Varys was talking about when he was referring to the Mercy chapter as the "first post-5-year-gap Arya chapter". I just read through the 

Do we think George passed 1500 manuscript pages?

 

thread, and the welcome new (to me) info from Werthead. Did I miss anything else, especially pertaining to Alayne I?

 

[Lord Varys]

Don't get confused by Blackfyre stuff - that is just window-dressing for Dunk & Egg. If Varys/Illyrio/Aegon actually do have some ties to the Targaryens via the bastard branch then the important thing is just that they are relations. We can expect some more information in the main series about Maelys the Monstrous and the Ninepenny Kings war - especially since Barristan Selmy killed Maelys and is now a POV - but the ASoIaF main series is not going to bother delving into the Blackfyre Rebellions 1-4. That is for Dunk & Egg and the history books to do.

If the world hadn't been expanded by Dunk & Egg and the history books, then the Aegon plot wouldn't have been that different, although the connections of the people behind Aegon and the Targaryen main branch may have been less convoluted. Now chances are pretty good that if there is a connection there Aegon is an obscure descendant of an obscure descendant of Daemon Blackfyre.

To put it mildly, the Aegon plot likely was introduced as early in the story as the decision to give Rhaegar a son whose head was dashed in ... which may have been made around the time the author decide to invent characters like Varys and Littlefinger (who weren't there when he wrote the original outline) and decided to pass the role of one of the major villains from 'Evil Jaime' to Littlefinger, Tywin, Walder Frey, and Roose Bolton ... which all also happened during the writing process of the first book.

People just have the weird notion of this being 'a late addition' because ADwD came out this late. George was already writing Aegon material back around 2000 considering the post-ASoS chapters stretch back this far. If AFfC/ADwD had been one book coming out in the early 2000s people would never have gotten that impression.

[Mithras]

The 1993 outline of ASOIAF was revealed more than 5 years ago. However, lots of factually wrong stuff about this outline still keeps getting repeated whenever the outline is brought up. Given the importance of such a document in dearth of new material and considering that it is only 3 pages long, one would expect the fans of ASOIAF to read it carefully. But here we are.

To illustrate, I keep seeing lots of comments claiming that there was no Cersei or Littlefinger or Varys (or Tywin ffs!) at this early stage of the story (because they are never mentioned by name in the outline). Another similarly misguided comment is that Tyrion was not a dwarf when this outline was written.

Dear Ralph,

Here are the first thirteen chapters (170 pages) of the high fantasy novel I promised you, which I'm calling 'A Game of Thrones.' When completed, this will be the first volume in what I see as an epic trilogy with the overall title, 'A Song of Ice and Fire.'

GRRM did not send just a 3 pages long letter. He also sent 13 chapters (170 pages) from the first book. That is plainly written in the letter, in fact, right at the beginning.

Now the question is whether those chapters are the first 13 chapters of AGoT (with or without the Prologue) and whether those chapters went through excessive rewriting.

Here is the hero who checked the early Tyrion II partial in the Cushing library reporting this Tyrion chapter was almost exactly the same as he published version. If Tyrion was not a dwarf, this person would have noticed. More importantly, if GRRM went through extensive rewriting of these early 13 chapters attached to the 1993 outline, you would expect him to remove foreshadowing to the stuff he would later abandon (like the evil king Jaime or questionably the Jon-Arya romance).

To conclude:

1. The 1993 outline also had 13 chapters (170 pages) attached to it .

2. These were almost certainly the first 13 chapters of AGoT with minor changes (if at all) with respect to their published versions.

3. That means even though Cersei or Littlefinger or Varys or Tyrion’s dwarfism were not mentioned in the outline, they were obviously in these attached chapters and they were already conceived in 1993.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Mithras said:

The 1993 outline of ASOIAF was revealed more than 5 years ago. However, lots of factually wrong stuff about this outline still keeps getting repeated whenever the outline is brought up. Given the importance of such a document in dearth of new material and considering that it is only 3 pages long, one would expect the fans of ASOIAF to read it carefully. But here we are.

To illustrate, I keep seeing lots of comments claiming that there was no Cersei or Littlefinger or Varys (or Tywin ffs!) at this early stage of the story (because they are never mentioned by name in the outline). Another similarly misguided comment is that Tyrion was not a dwarf when this outline was written.

Dear Ralph,

Here are the first thirteen chapters (170 pages) of the high fantasy novel I promised you, which I'm calling 'A Game of Thrones.' When completed, this will be the first volume in what I see as an epic trilogy with the overall title, 'A Song of Ice and Fire.'

GRRM did not send just a 3 pages long letter. He also sent 13 chapters (170 pages) from the first book. That is plainly written in the letter, in fact, right at the beginning.

Now the question is whether those chapters are the first 13 chapters of AGoT (with or without the Prologue) and whether those chapters went through excessive rewriting.

Here is the hero who checked the early Tyrion II partial in the Cushing library reporting this Tyrion chapter was almost exactly the same as he published version. If Tyrion was not a dwarf, this person would have noticed. More importantly, if GRRM went through extensive rewriting of these early 13 chapters attached to the 1993 outline, you would expect him to remove foreshadowing to the stuff he would later abandon (like the evil king Jaime or questionably the Jon-Arya romance).

To conclude:

1. The 1993 outline also had 13 chapters (170 pages) attached to it .

2. These were almost certainly the first 13 chapters of AGoT with minor changes (if at all) with respect to their published versions.

3. That means even though Cersei or Littlefinger or Varys or Tyrion’s dwarfism were not mentioned in the outline, they were obviously in these attached chapters and they were already conceived in 1993.

Doubting Tyrion's dwarfism is stupid ... assuming that Varys or Littlefinger must have been in the first versions of the chapters not so much. Even if they were there, them being in existence and them already having the role in the plot they eventually got is also not a great idea considering that we know that this tale growing in the telling is part of the author's writing process (think of the changes to the ADwD Dany chapters or the final Brienne chapters from AFfC when you compare them to the original Russian edition).

Varys could have just been some extra, and Littlefinger merely a Lannister pawn whose role was to help bring down Ned, not him being a guy with his own agenda fueling the entire conflict.

But if you actually check which chapters the first thirteen chapters of AGoT are and you assume the ones George sent were also those chapters then the final chapter would be Ned's conversation with Robert after they leave Winterfell ... and Daenerys only just married Khal Drogo. Which is very crucial considering the original plan for Dany's story was that Drogo turned out to be a monster who killed Dany's brother. There was no sign of this being a Dothraki helps Dany to free herself of Viserys. And that wouldn't have been in the outline if the first thirteen chapters had included Daenerys 3.

We don't get any Varyses and Littlefingers in those chapters, nor any Renlys and Stannises ... meaning at this point the story was still very small. And the main villain was indeed Jaime. Even Tywin wouldn't have been important enough a character at that point to make it into the outline even if George had already invented him.

[Mithras]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doubting Tyrion's dwarfism is stupid ... assuming that Varys or Littlefinger must have been in the first versions of the chapters not so much. Even if they were there, them being in existence and them already having the role in the plot they eventually got is also not a great idea considering that we know that this tale growing in the telling is part of the author's writing process (think of the changes to the ADwD Dany chapters or the final Brienne chapters from AFfC when you compare them to the original Russian edition).

Varys could have just been some extra, and Littlefinger merely a Lannister pawn whose role was to help bring down Ned, not him being a guy with his own agenda fueling the entire conflict.

But if you actually check which chapters the first thirteen chapters of AGoT are and you assume the ones George sent were also those chapters then the final chapter would be Ned's conversation with Robert after they leave Winterfell ... and Daenerys only just married Khal Drogo. Which is very crucial considering the original plan for Dany's story was that Drogo turned out to be a monster who killed Dany's brother. There was no sign of this being a Dothraki helps Dany to free herself of Viserys. And that wouldn't have been in the outline if the first thirteen chapters had included Daenerys 3.

We don't get any Varyses and Littlefingers in those chapters, nor any Renlys and Stannises ... meaning at this point the story was still very small. And the main villain was indeed Jaime. Even Tywin wouldn't have been important enough a character at that point to make it into the outline even if George had already invented him.

Both Littlefinger and Varys are mentioned in the first 13 chapters of AGoT, as are Tywin, Stannis and Renly.

The letter of the outline is dated to October 1993. There is a partial AGoT manuscript dated to November 1993 in Box 78 of the archive at Cushing Library. If you go check it, you will find that this partial AGoT manuscript has 351 pages without the maps. Unless you are confident that GRRM was able to write 181 more pages after he sent that letter to Ralph just within a month, it is obvious that GRRM had double the material he had sent along with the 1993 outline at the time. That means when he was talking in the letter, he had the first 26 chapters written or so. The person who checked this very manuscript reported minor changes with respect to the published version. Should I take her word for it or should I believe in your baseless speculations on this subject?

Long story short, the scenario you are making up about GRRM's writing process for AGoT just does not fit with the facts we know.

I don't even know what your problem is. I said at the beginning that when AGoT was written, Blackfyre backstory did not exist. That means Varys should have another agenda and the Targaryen pretender Dany was destined to fight should have some other backstory. Therefore, this original Varys in AGoT is not that character we see later on is what I'm saying. Similarly, the original Littlefinger, especially the way Jaime talked about him in Bran II (which you can go check and see among the first 13 chapters of AGoT), has nothing to do with the Gatsby-wannabe we see later on. That is one of the reasons why I believe that in AGoT, the original Littlefinger sent the catspaw, until GRRM later realized the logistical and logical problems with it and changed it along with many things, for better or worse.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

A couple notes on the "Pretender" issue - (note chapter numbers are based on the prologue as Chapter 00.)

(Hope this is correct. Apologies if I missed something.)

Chpt 12  Eddard II - the Barrowlands scene. Ned mentions the children's death, Tywin's presentation of the bodies

Chpt 20 Eddard IV - Ned arrives at Red Keep, meets Cat in LF's brothel. Ned remembers Aegon's body as "a red ruin".

Chpt 30 Eddard VII - The Tourney scene. First time IIRC Aegon's head being dashed against the wall is mentioned.

Chpt 32 Arya III - Arya catching cats, overhears Illyrio and Varys still planning invasion.

To have a pretender plot, you [edit<need>endedit oops] a missing or unrecognizable body (unless you're going with an identical twin). We can see how the unrecognizable body data point is revealed slowly, but that doesn't mean much, since it could have been a back edit.  Still, this shows that a pretender plot may be happening. The fact that there seems to be no other explanation for Illyrio and Varys's support of Viserys makes the pretender plot likely. But since Viserys's invasion wasn't going to happen anyway, and the pretender's invasion wasn't going to happen anytime soon, it may be that GRRM simply chose to put off deciding who the pretender would actually be. Varys is still supporting a pretender - does it matter why? I'm not sure that changes his character much, other than to keep his motives mysterious for a bit longer.

 

[Lord Varys]

Just to clarify - my point here just is that I say that the Aegon plot as 'mummer's dragon plot', i.e. a potentially fake Targaryen pretender plot, was there since AGoT.

Not necessarily since the early chapters of the book, as it involves rather minor edits to add such a plot.

But I'd maintain that both the character of Varys - who would have entered the story after Illyrio who would have been there since Daenerys 1, although just as some guy harboring Viserys without any deeper connection to the overall plot at first - as well as the specific manner of Aegon's death were there to pave the way for somebody showing up later to claim to be him.

But the guy at the core of this plot is Varys. When George invented him he also invented the Aegon story.

I mean, this very plot - the idea that a close friend to a king saved the rightful heir from death while an innocent child was killed in his stead - is a rather crucial part of Maurice Druon's Accursed Kings series which heavily influenced ASoIaF (and especially AGoT). Not to mention that it is also part of the aftermath of the Wars of Roses with the Warbeck and Simnel pretenders.

The narrative point of the Aegon plot is not so much about Aegon or the Golden Company and whoever else ends up supporting him. It is the reason d'etre for the Varys character, and has been from the start. Aegon is Varys' creation and pawn, he is the mummer's dragon. And while there is a chance that Aegon as a character might also grow in the telling, the overall point of his plot is about who Varys is and what he tries to accomplish using Aegon.

The biggest conceptual clash there should between Varys' idea that a king can be made in this manner and the stories of most of the accidental kings and leaders like Dany and Jon who are swept away and pushed into a certain direction by fate and thus may end up being better kingly material than a guy who was trained for it in a specific manner from childhood on.

Insofar as the other stuff is concerned my point always was that I take the outline letter at face value for George's original plans with the Lannisters for events up to the deaths of Robb and Joffrey. Meaning that while there may or may not have been references to certain courtiers and royal relations in the first versions of the early chapters ... I doubt that those characters already had an important or important enough role in those early chapters. Characters like Littlefinger and Renly and Stannis grew in the telling, they were not first mentioned in the story with their entire future story already existing in George's mind.

Including references to those characters in the first couple 13-15 chapters of AGoT would definitely qualify as minor changes.

But the get finally back on topic:

I think the bigger focus of George tweaking some of the TWoW sample chapter would be about them fitting better (or at all) in the new chronology - which is why Arianne 2, Mercy, and Alayne 1 are main suspects in this regard for the reasons I mentioned above. I've always said that the talk about 'the queen' in Mercy would not make it to TWoW, and now I'm more confident than ever that I'm right about that.

There might also be other reason to do so - like slowing down Theon 1 somewhat so the reader remembers what the hell is going on with Theon and Asha and Stannis right now, just as the Vic/Tyrion/Barristan chapters might get similar 'memory refresher' parts.

Aeron 1 pretty has a lot of memory stuff already in it considering it is conceptually both a 'what has Aeron done in the last couple of months' as well as a glimpse of Euron's actual personality. I don't expect (m)any changes there, although there might be some to the visions Aeron has if things unfold differently than originally intended in later TWoW chapters ... sort of like Moqorro was added to Quaithe's prophecy relating Dany's visitors in comparison to the version that was read where there was no mention of him.

[Mithras]

9 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

A couple notes on the "Pretender" issue - (note chapter numbers are based on the prologue as Chapter 00.)

(Hope this is correct. Apologies if I missed something.)

Chpt 12  Eddard II - the Barrowlands scene. Ned mentions the children's death, Tywin's presentation of the bodies

Chpt 20 Eddard IV - Ned arrives at Red Keep, meets Cat in LF's brothel. Ned remembers Aegon's body as "a red ruin".

Chpt 30 Eddard VII - The Tourney scene. First time IIRC Aegon's head being dashed against the wall is mentioned.

Chpt 32 Arya III - Arya catching cats, overhears Illyrio and Varys still planning invasion.

To have a pretender plot, you [edit<need>endedit oops] a missing or unrecognizable body (unless you're going with an identical twin). We can see how the unrecognizable body data point is revealed slowly, but that doesn't mean much, since it could have been a back edit.  Still, this shows that a pretender plot may be happening. The fact that there seems to be no other explanation for Illyrio and Varys's support of Viserys makes the pretender plot likely. But since Viserys's invasion wasn't going to happen anyway, and the pretender's invasion wasn't going to happen anytime soon, it may be that GRRM simply chose to put off deciding who the pretender would actually be. Varys is still supporting a pretender - does it matter why? I'm not sure that changes his character much, other than to keep his motives mysterious for a bit longer.

 

I believe the original pretender GRRM intended would have something to do with Aerion, by way of his son passed over in a Great Council. Aerion appeared in the Hedge Knight as the major villain and the story of his son being passed over was provided in Jon I of ACoK; a chapter that should have been in AGoT. ACoK is all about the Great Ranging in the far north. This chapter does not sit well with the rest. When GRRM realized that the trilogy idea flew out of the window, he cut a couple of hundred pages from the AGoT manuscript and published AGoT as it is, while creating ACoK. Jon I with the Aerion detail might be among these chapters.

Then came the Blackfyre backstory with the Sworn Sword and ASoS. However, I still think that GRRM did not completely abandon the Aerion backstory. Through the Brightfyre theory, he might wed both ideas to serve as the backstory for fAegon. IMO, the most reasonable solution to explain both the original Varys in AGoT and the retconned version is to make him a missing descendant of Aerion. This would provide him the necessary motive to betray the Targaryens and put Aerion's blood on the Iron Throne (that is true if GRRM makes fAegon a Brightfyre).

[Mithras]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I've always said that the talk about 'the queen' in Mercy would not make it to TWoW, and now I'm more confident than ever that I'm right about that.

Lol.

Cersei will return to power in TWoW in the fastest way possible. That is the entire point of ADwD Epilogue and Mercy simply confirms it.

But who am I discussing with. You find your headcanon more valid than semi-published and sometimes even published material.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

24 minutes ago, Mithras said:

Cersei will return to power in TWoW in the fastest way possible. That is the entire point of ADwD Epilogue and Mercy simply confirms it.

Fully agree. Cersei has already atoned for the crimes she plead guilty to by doing her walk. UnGregor will win her trial by combat, proving her innocent of the other accusations. At that point, she's free and clear. And she's all House Lannister has left in KL. Swyft will defer to her. Whoever the captain of the Redcloaks is will take orders from her.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

 

4 hours ago, Mithras said:

I believe the original pretender GRRM intended would have something to do with Aerion, by way of his son passed over in a Great Council. Aerion appeared in the Hedge Knight as the major villain and the story of his son being passed over was provided in Jon I of ACoK; a chapter that should have been in AGoT.

I agree about the timing of the creation of ACoK Jon I. That would also have been when GRRM wrote the Targaryen entry for the AGoT appendix. So the story of the Great Council of 233 existed when AGoT was published. And probably a bit more. Oldstones is on the map in AGoT, so the Dragonfly story probably existed as well. But I disagree that a proto-Brightflame was originally the Illyrio-Varys backed pretender. I see Varys's prentender as of indeterminate identity until after the Blackfyres were invented post-ACoK. Nor do I see major changes in Varys or LF.

I do think that Maegor Brightflame's descendants are out there, however. and not connected to Varys or the Blackfyres. Off-topic here, though. Too speculative.

[Lord Varys]

It is completely irrelevant conceptually how Aegon's family tree looks like. His point is about a nobody thinking he can create the ideal king from scratch. The important question is why they are doing this in the first place, not what amount of royal blood they have.

They could have some, but it would actually be a better story if Aegon was just a pisswater prince.

3 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Fully agree. Cersei has already atoned for the crimes she plead guilty to by doing her walk. UnGregor will win her trial by combat, proving her innocent of the other accusations. At that point, she's free and clear. And she's all House Lannister has left in KL. Swyft will defer to her. Whoever the captain of the Redcloaks is will take orders from her.

That would be completely un-GRRM. It is as naive as expecting reading AGoT that Ned's coup plan works, that Stannis' plan to win at the Blackwater works, that Robb's plan to retake the North works, that Littlefinger plan for Sansa at the end of AFfC goes down exactly this way, that Oberyn will win his trial-by-combat, etc.

The trials of the queens won't go exactly the way the people trying to rig them will expect.

We don't get a plan laid out in detail and see that then working.

Yes, Ser Robert Strong might kill the Faith's champion in the trial ... but Ser Robert is an undead abomination, not a living, breathing knight. If the latter were to be revealed during the trial this would be ... well, a scandal of monstrous proportions. Not just for the Dornish representatives about to reach KL - who were fooled by that skull - but also for the Faith. The idea that the point of judgment of the gods is to use black magic and demons to cheat would be somewhat far-fetched.

Mercy gives the freak impression that Slynt is still working for Cersei the Queen Regent. Only a Cersei running Tommen's government could demand his head if he came back without further loans/money. Even if Cersei won the trial and were thus acquitted it would never give her back her former position at court. She would then just be humiliated queen dowager who would still be under lock and key for her previous transgressions and slutty behavior.

As I pointed out, Slynt is also Kevan's father-in-law - yet nothing in Mercy indicates that the guy is sad or distraught because of Kevan's death. And neither do his men discuss the murder of Kevan. This makes no sense in context. If they were to discuss things in KL/Westeros they should mention this. Not to mention that chances are that the Small Council/Mace are going to force Slynt to leave the city even before the trials of the queens if they take place. The Epilogue already set that up. If Cersei magically returned to power in KL before Slynt left he would never go because he is the last Lannister crony on the council. She would never allow him to leave. Instead she would either dismiss him and replace him with another crony of hers ... or she would keep him by her side. Cersei doesn't give a damn about the Braavosi. She has no problem with the fact that they are pissed. Kevan and Mace wanted to do something about the Braavosi problem, but Cersei never gave a damn.

And there is no chance for a coup on her part. George ensured that when he gave her the ridiculous idea to send the Lannister army back home in AFfC while leaving tens of thousands of Tyrell men in the city. Even if Ser Robert and Qyburn magically killed the entire Tyrell leadership in the city, we would not expect their men to then answer to Cersei. They would either turn against her and kill her and her cronies or, more likely, simply abandon her and Tommen to their many enemies.

Finally, there would be no real point to Cersei's entire arc in AFFC/ADwD if she just ended up running the government of the boy king yet again - it is like expecting Ned or Tyrion will jump back to the Handship from their black cells. This entire story prepared them for something else, and it is the same with Cersei.

Doesn't mean she is done - far from it - but she is done in KL as a person running things.

[BlackLightning]

On 11/13/2020 at 10:36 AM, Amris said:

Mercy is my fav ASoIaF chapter ever. To me it is perfect. So perfect that I have read it over and over again just to enjoy it. So I am curious: Why do you think it has to be revised or rewritten even?

@Lord Varys quoted me too so this goes for him...

Mercy is a damn good chapter. I'm not saying that it isn't.

The problem with Mercy is the timing of it and the political stuff with Ser Harys and the Sweetling. Who is the queen in charge that they are talking about? Are they talking about Cersei or Margaery (Mace will likely fall over himself to make her the new Queen Regent)? If so, how do they not know about their imprisonment, much less Cersei's Walk of Shame? Or the fact that she has been removed from power and Kevan Lannister has taken over? That's BIG news. The common Braavosi may not know but the Sealord and the other noblemen of Braavos would know. Ser Harys would know. It would be his business to know.

And then it is a matter of when? If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter, does it mean that we aren't going to hear from or see Arya until after Cersei slithers her way back into power? If that's the case, then we would probably need at least 2-3 Cersei chapters, 3-4 Arianne chapters and maybe 1-2 Connington chapters. Which means that we won't see Arya until...the second third of the book???

If so, what have Harys Swyft and Raff the Sweetling been doing this whole time? They left for Braavos in what Cersei chapter from A Feast for Crows? Cersei VII or Cersei VIII? That was a long time ago...

If that is true, then that means that Arya is a character who is going to experience a sizeable time jump. Because Mercy reads like it is the very last day of Arya's training with Izembaro. If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter in Winds, then we will have seen absolutely none of her training with Izembaro. It doesn't sit right with me and it doesn't sound anything like GRRM.

How is it possible and sensible to get two Arianne chapters of her travelling from Sunspear to Storm's End (by both land and sea, through Dorne and Stormlands) and two chapters of Tyrion preparing for a battle but we can't even get one Arya chapter of her training as an apprentice.

I don't know it just don't feel right.

Adjustments will have to be made. Mercy can stay but we might need an Arya chapter to take place before that one.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

mpletely un-GRRM. It is as naive as expecting reading AGoT that Ned's coup plan works, that Stannis' plan to win at the Blackwater works, that Robb's plan to retake the North works, that Littlefinger plan for Sansa at the end of AFfC goes down exactly this way, that Oberyn will win his trial-by-combat, etc.

The trials of the queens won't go exactly the way the people trying to rig them will expect.

 

You say that, yet Tryion's first trial by battle went exactly how he planned it. I will say you are probably right, and I'm expecting the High Sparrow to somehow discover who/what Ser Robert Strong is and use that as an excuse to over throw the Lannisters in the city; kind of like what happened during the original Dance of the Dragons. Just my theory though, for all I know GRRM could take things in a completely different direction.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The trials of the queens won't go exactly the way the people trying to rig them will expect.

Of course. In the medium or long term. But in the short term, Cersei has the advantage, because she has the king on her side. Tommen has the right to appoint new members of the KG. The High Septon has no right to dispute that. Cersei must be represented by a member of the KG. She will be. There is practically no chance anyone will be able to get UnGregor to remove his helmet. He will stand there, keeping his "vow" of silence. Either the fight occurs and he steamrolls his opponent, or the HS raises a stink and won't let his man fight. In that case, Cersei only need say that she met her obligations, is vindicated, and goes home. Tommen will confirm it.

Of course that means the HS will raise the KL mob. But that will take time. The big loser will be Margaery. The HS can't let both queens get away; he'd lose too much face. He'll rig the jury against her. Or that's what Tyene will report to Mace. And Mace will have Tommen quash the charges against Margaery, just as he suggested in the epilogue. Now the HS will point the mob at both Cersei and Marge. Mace screwed up when he let Cersei's trial go first. Meanwhile, Mace will be advancing House Tyrell's interests at the expense of House Lannister so blatantly that the remaining Lannisters will have no choice but to look to the only real leader available - Cersei. Enter fAegon and Co. 

Lady Nym will be a bit of a wildcard, but she will be perfectly willing to let Cersei discredit herself. Then she'll move.

If GRRM was going to change the dynamics in Mercy, he would have done so before posting the chapter. He knew what was in it.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

And Cersei will have one other ally during her trial - Mace.

Kevan explained it to Mace during the epilogue - if Cersei loses her trial, she will be found guilty of incest, Tommen will no longer be king, and Margaery will no longer be queen.

Cersei has the law, UnGregor, Mace, and Tommen on her side. She wins (or lives to fight another day.) She makes the HS a mortal enemy, but he pretty much already is.

[BlackLightning]

On 11/13/2020 at 11:54 AM, Lord Varys said:

And since George refuses to include a summary at the beginning of the novel he has to include this memory stuff in the chapters - and he mostly does that in the first chapters of each POV.

Why does he do that? The only thing I can think of is that he must want people to not rely on the summaries and instead read the previous books for themselves...

On 11/13/2020 at 12:18 PM, Lord Varys said:

If that were to happen then any rational person would stop reading the novels. There are not going to be tunnels connecting the Stormlands and Reach with the lands beyond the Wall.

Conceptually I think the emptiness and sadness of the caverns are clues as to what ultimately may motivate/drive the Others or the forces behind them (if there are some rogue greenseers/Children behind them).

I don't see anything wrong with the idea that there could be tunnels connecting the Stormlands with the lands beyond the Wall.

After all... This is a series that has people being raised from the dead, different types of psychics, shape-shifters, magical non-humans (some of whom capable of manipulating the elements), gigantic turtles and spiders, flying crocodiles that can breathe fire so hot that it nearly rivals the potency of lava and the Sun and possibly mermen. 

Maybe having tunnels that stretch from the lands beyond the Wall to the Stormlands is a stretch. I'll allow that. But from the lands beyond the Wall to Winterfell, the Gift or whatever...not a stretch.

I agree with how the empty sadness of the caves and further exploration of the caves can lead to some interesting revelations.

[Amris]

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

@Lord Varys quoted me too so this goes for him...

Mercy is a damn good chapter. I'm not saying that it isn't.

The problem with Mercy is the timing of it and the political stuff with Ser Harys and the Sweetling. Who is the queen in charge that they are talking about? Are they talking about Cersei or Margaery (Mace will likely fall over himself to make her the new Queen Regent)? If so, how do they not know about their imprisonment, much less Cersei's Walk of Shame? Or the fact that she has been removed from power and Kevan Lannister has taken over? That's BIG news. The common Braavosi may not know but the Sealord and the other noblemen of Braavos would know. Ser Harys would know. It would be his business to know.

And then it is a matter of when? If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter, does it mean that we aren't going to hear from or see Arya until after Cersei slithers her way back into power? If that's the case, then we would probably need at least 2-3 Cersei chapters, 3-4 Arianne chapters and maybe 1-2 Connington chapters. Which means that we won't see Arya until...the second third of the book???

If so, what have Harys Swyft and Raff the Sweetling been doing this whole time? They left for Braavos in what Cersei chapter from A Feast for Crows? Cersei VII or Cersei VIII? That was a long time ago...

If that is true, then that means that Arya is a character who is going to experience a sizeable time jump. Because Mercy reads like it is the very last day of Arya's training with Izembaro. If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter in Winds, then we will have seen absolutely none of her training with Izembaro. It doesn't sit right with me and it doesn't sound anything like GRRM.

How is it possible and sensible to get two Arianne chapters of her travelling from Sunspear to Storm's End (by both land and sea, through Dorne and Stormlands) and two chapters of Tyrion preparing for a battle but we can't even get one Arya chapter of her training as an apprentice.

I don't know it just don't feel right.

Adjustments will have to be made. Mercy can stay but we might need an Arya chapter to take place before that one.

Ah, cool. Ty for the answer.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

If so, what have Harys Swyft and Raff the Sweetling been dhttps://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/profile/2802-lord-varys/oing this whole time? They left for Braavos in what Cersei chapter from A Feast for Crows? Cersei VII or Cersei VIII? That was a long time ago...
 

Ser Harys Swyft was still in KL as of ADwD epilogue. Raff was presumably part of Red Ronnet's escort at the same time. They haven't left yet.