GRRM is tweaking sample chapters. Desired/feared changes?

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, sifth said:

You say that, yet Tryion's first trial went exactly how he planned it. I will say you are probably right, and I'm expecting the High Sparrow to somehow discovery Who/What Ser Robert Strong is and use that as an excuse to over throw the Lannisters in the city; kind of like what happened during the original Dance of the Dragons. Just my theory though, for all I know GRRM could take things in a completely different direction.

Tyrion's first trial went the way it did because he was smart and Lysa was stupid. But I never suggested that the unknown champion of the Faith will actually win the duel. Far from it.

Also, the remark was about both the trials. We don't expect Cersei's trial the way she and Kevan hoped it to go, just as we don't expect that Margaery's trial will go exactly as she and her father hope it will go (if that even takes place).

If the High Septon declares Cersei guilty once he realizes what Ser Robert is regardless how the fight went, then most people will go with his interpretation, especially those seeing the Qyborg monster for what it is.

56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

The problem with Mercy is the timing of it and the political stuff with Ser Harys and the Sweetling. Who is the queen in charge that they are talking about? Are they talking about Cersei or Margaery (Mace will likely fall over himself to make her the new Queen Regent)? If so, how do they not know about their imprisonment, much less Cersei's Walk of Shame? Or the fact that she has been removed from power and Kevan Lannister has taken over? That's BIG news. The common Braavosi may not know but the Sealord and the other noblemen of Braavos would know. Ser Harys would know. It would be his business to know.

As I said, I expect the parts about the queen to be revised. Not just to reflect the new status quo but also to reflect the fact that Kevan was Swyft's father-in-law and that he is distraught about his and Dorna's loss.

Swyft's entire mission is also likely to be presented as being much more urgent ... and the Braavosi as being a tidbit more hostile considering the AFfC/ADwD made it clear the Iron Bank is leaning in Stannis' direction now. Swyft should be a more desperate man, trying to sweeten the keyholders and other officials, not having a nice time with the courtesans.

And to be clear - Margaery can never be the Queen Regent. A regent running the government during the minority of a king - or while he incapacitated - is usually an experienced person. Westeros doesn't like women in charge, and Cersei only made herself regent by staging a coup. They would not throw the regency on a girl who is barely a woman grown, and one whose virtues are in serious doubt right now.

If a new regent is appointed - which isn't really necessary since Mace as Hand can exercise the same power since he, too, speaks with the King's Voice. Back when the regency passed from Cersei to Kevan that was only because both the Hand and the regent were gone - Merryweather fled the city, and Cersei was arrested.

If Mace bothers with the regency then he will likely take the office himself, not give it to his daughter who is barely an adult and about to face her own trial. That would create the absurd situation - yet again - that a father was technically subject to the authority of his daughter (as it was with Cersei-Tywin) ... something no father would want and something that wouldn't work, anyway, since Mace would still tell his daughter what to do.

It could be that the new regent is appointed immediately after Kevan's corpse is discovered ... or they don't bother with that for the time being.

56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

And then it is a matter of when? If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter, does it mean that we aren't going to hear from or see Arya until after Cersei slithers her way back into power? If that's the case, then we would probably need at least 2-3 Cersei chapters, 3-4 Arianne chapters and maybe 1-2 Connington chapters. Which means that we won't see Arya until...the second third of the book???

Again, don't expect Cersei to return to power. But you are right that Mercy cannot be an early TWoW chapter in any case. If it is the first Arya chapter it is likely only going to come after, say, page 200 or so in the published book.

That certainly leaves the possibility of there being another Arya chapter before that, although that would necessitate considerable rewriting of Mercy since Arya would have to have something to do in the previous chapter ... and Mercy effectively has her as an actress learning her lines for quite some time, and all her actor buddies are introduced in that chapter.

Thus I'm not very convinced there will be another Arya chapter before that one despite that being a possibility.

56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If so, what have Harys Swyft and Raff the Sweetling been doing this whole time? They left for Braavos in what Cersei chapter from A Feast for Crows? Cersei VII or Cersei VIII? That was a long time ago...

They haven't left yet. In the Epilogue Kevan tells Swyft to hire some of Gregor's men and the Small Council decides that Swyft should eventually go to Braavos if they don't get any money from Pentos (which Illyrio will see to that they don't).

Chances that sending Swyft away will be a top priority after the double murder is also not that likely. He should still be there in Cersei 1 when they discover the bodies and react to that since that's going to take place, we assume, immediately after the Epilogue (i.e. in the night or the next day).

Whether Swyft will stay behind and attend Cersei's trial - if that takes place - or be sent to Braavos before that happens we cannot know at that point.

But the longer George waits before he sends him the later the Mercy chapter will be placed in TWoW.

Although part of the speculative rewrite there about Swyft could be that he just arrived in Braavos when Mercy takes place.

56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If that is true, then that means that Arya is a character who is going to experience a sizeable time jump. Because Mercy reads like it is the very last day of Arya's training with Izembaro. If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter in Winds, then we will have seen absolutely none of her training with Izembaro. It doesn't sit right with me and it doesn't sound anything like GRRM.

You have a point there, but it might be that the only point of the Izembaro training was that Arya can now play roles like an actress. We don't really need to see her learning that, it might be enough to see how she uses what she learned to deal with Raff.

56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

How is it possible and sensible to get two Arianne chapters of her travelling from Sunspear to Storm's End (by both land and sea, through Dorne and Stormlands) and two chapters of Tyrion preparing for a battle but we can't even get one Arya chapter of her training as an apprentice.

Because things are happening in those chapters when Arya is completely alone and not interacting/preparing for anything significant in her present chapters?

Mind you, I'd like another chapter before Mercy. George could place a short chapter there when she arrived, being an extra in another play before they turn to the Forel piece, and perhaps catching up some more with her Nymeria dreams and other stuff. But I don't think we will get a chapter focusing on Arya's time with Izembaro specifically, meaning the kind of chapter we got for when she was Cat.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Of course. In the medium or long term. But in the short term, Cersei has the advantage, because she has the king on her side. Tommen has the right to appoint new members of the KG. The High Septon has no right to dispute that. Cersei must be represented by a member of the KG. She will be.

Tommen is not on anybody's side because nobody tells him anything. He is just a pawn. They didn't tell him about his mother's arrest, her walk, nor about the problems Margaery was/is facing.

And right now Cersei doesn't even have access to her son, nor the manpower needed to even try to stage a coup in his name. Hell, she cannot even really count on Qyburn and Ser Robert ... if Mace was making them a better offer than Cersei (not very likely that he will bother, but if he did) then a man like Qyburn - who is only loyal to his experiments - would jump ship immediately.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

There is practically no chance anyone will be able to get UnGregor to remove his helmet. He will stand there, keeping his "vow" of silence. Either the fight occurs and he steamrolls his opponent, or the HS raises a stink and won't let his man fight. In that case, Cersei only need say that she met her obligations, is vindicated, and goes home. Tommen will confirm it.

Tommen is not going to have a say in the trial. It is a trial-by-combat, meaning the Seven decide, not the king. Technically the gods speak their will in who wins the duel, but if one party were to use black magic to rig said duel and deceive the Seven then things could go differently.

And of course Robert Strong wouldn't lift his helmet of his own free will - but there will be a fight, so there is a chance that it might be knocked off. And considering Gregor Clegane's behavior at the last trial-by-combat chances are not that bad that he might ran amok or shout out who and what he is if he feels like it. Chances are not that high that this guy is just some kind of mindless robot doing everything Qyburn asks him to.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Of course that means the HS will raise the KL mob. But that will take time.

Cersei doesn't have the men to protect her when she goes to the trial. There are tens of thousands of sparrows in the city, and the Lannisters are down to a couple of hundred of guardsmen. They have no army. Mace has an army in the city, but he is not going to use those men to protect Cersei. If Cersei goes to the trial she will be effectively in the hands of the Faith ... again.

And Margaery will have a similar problem if she is returned there for her trial ... although Mace having thousands of soldiers will that make a different thing.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

The big loser will be Margaery. The HS can't let both queens get away; he'd lose too much face. He'll rig the jury against her. Or that's what Tyene will report to Mace. And Mace will have Tommen quash the charges against Margaery, just as he suggested in the epilogue. Now the HS will point the mob at both Cersei and Marge. Mace screwed up when he let Cersei's trial go first. Meanwhile, Mace will be advancing House Tyrell's interests at the expense of House Lannister so blatantly that the remaining Lannisters will have no choice but to look to the only real leader available - Cersei. Enter fAegon and Co. 

There is no reason to assume that there will be a Margaery trial if the trial-by-combat will blow up or go not according to plan. If Mace were to cancel the trial, as suggested by Mace and Randyll in the Epilogue, then this is certainly going to raise tensions but no way near in the same degree if the nature/identity of Robert Strong were revealed.

This could mark the beginning of a war between the Faith and Tommen and, especially, between Dorne and Tommen, completely independent of Arianne-Aegon. Neither the Sand Snakes nor Doran Martell will suffer the betrayal with the skull. That was just too much humiliation.

What remaining Lannisters are you talking about? There are none in KL. And those back in the Riverlands and the West either have their own plates full or won't have the time to react. Even if they wanted to help Cersei ... how could they even make an impression without first raising another army. Which then would have to get to KL through the Riverlands ... which isn't likely to happen with the folks there taking back their lands and castles and destroying the Lannisters and Freys. And that's a scenario where the Lannisters back home are determined to help Cersei out ... which they weren't when she was arrested as Kevan showed.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

If GRRM was going to change the dynamics in Mercy, he would have done so before posting the chapter. He knew what was in it.

But he now confirmed that he changed also chapters he previously released or read from, so, no, there is no reason to assume he would have done it before.

Especially since said chapter was never supposed to be a sample chapter in its own right. George released that chapter shortly before GoT episode in the Crossroads Inn aired to ensure that we first got his take on how Arya dealt with Gregor's goons (that the show later used Mercy for the Trant plot in Braavos is something that wasn't clear back then).

Mercy is a chapter he worked on for over a decade and its textual history makes it the first Arya chapter after the planned five year gap, meaning at a time when Cersei would have still been in charge. The point to make it fit with the new status quo is when it is finally prepared for publication and it is clear where exactly it will fit in the story ... which is still unclear to us. Clarity will only come there when we know when Harys Swyft is going to Braavos ... which we don't right now.

And you have to keep in mind that a more updated version of Mercy could have spoiled things for the reader if Swyft left after the trial(s) and they were referencing them in such a version - as they should. They should also talk about Kevan's murder and who the guys in charge think did it, etc. But I honestly don't think George had bothered to update the chapter at that point. There was no rush with TWoW not exactly being finished. It is the same with the Alayne chapter - that clearly wasn't finished, either.

2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

And Cersei will have one other ally during her trial - Mace.

Kevan explained it to Mace during the epilogue - if Cersei loses her trial, she will be found guilty of incest, Tommen will no longer be king, and Margaery will no longer be queen.

Cersei has the law, UnGregor, Mace, and Tommen on her side. She wins (or lives to fight another day.) She makes the HS a mortal enemy, but he pretty much already is.

Mace doesn't need Tommen if he thinks he can marry Margaery to Aegon - which he might start to seriously consider. Mace could work with Kevan but without him he might decide to ditch the Lannisters ... especially if there are still many Targaryen loyalists in his army.

And the High Septon is not going to consult with anybody before denouncing anyone. The idea for possible Gregor Clegane zombie revelation at the trial is a situation akin to Ned's execution. Cersei and her people also didn't have a real interest in that happening ... but it did happen anyway. So the idea would be that Robert Strong wins the duel but reveals who and what he is in the process of doing that ... and then the High Septon speaks as the Voice of the Seven on Earth - and the avatar of the gods that he is - and declares Cersei guilty and her children abominable bastards born of incest with no claim to the throne. Like people listened to Joffrey when he commanded Ned's execution, people will listen to the High Septon when does that.

We did learn in FaB that the Faith used to burn witches at the stake, and what Cersei did there qualifies both as black magic and the vilest form of blasphemy considering she tried to deceive the gods by making a demonic creature her champion. That is not something this society can accept if it ever became public knowledge. It is a miracle that she and Qyburn got this far.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Why does he do that? The only thing I can think of is that he must want people to not rely on the summaries and instead read the previous books for themselves...

No idea, really.

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't see anything wrong with the idea that there could be tunnels connecting the Stormlands with the lands beyond the Wall.

It would just be way too convenient in a childish way. Tunnels from one side of the Wall to the other, yes, even a bigger tunnel system to the Gifts and so. But not to Winterfell. That, too, would be way too far. Especially if the idea is that POVs actually end up using such tunnels.

Mind you, George likes his tunnels and people living in caves, that's stuff that comes again and again in his stories, but we have that already with the Children and Varys and his little birds.

And for the Others/wights the entire purpose of the Wall would break down if there was a convenient underground route they could take. No, they have to have an incentive to destroy/breach the Wall which means they will most likely either never gain access to any tunnels or they won't be able to properly utilize them because the Children and/or NW blocked and warded them ages ago.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

 

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If the High Septon declares Cersei guilty once he realizes what Ser Robert is regardless how the fight went, then most people will go with his interpretation, especially those seeing the Qyborg monster for what it is.

A trial by combat is an appeal to the Seven. The HS literally has no right to overrule it. The rest of your assertion has no evidence to support it.

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Mace bothers with the regency then he will likely take the office himself,

Obviously, as I've stated. We agree here.

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tommen is not on anybody's side because nobody tells him anything. He is just a pawn. They didn't tell him about his mother's arrest, her walk, nor about the problems Margaery was/is facing.

And right now Cersei doesn't even have access to her son, nor the manpower needed to even try to stage a coup in his name. Hell, she cannot even really count on Qyburn and Ser Robert ... if Mace was making them a better offer than Cersei (not very likely that he will bother, but if he did) then a man like Qyburn - who is only loyal to his experiments - would jump ship immediately.

 

Tommen is on his mother's side. She just dined with him during the epilogue. Qyburn owes all he has to Cersei, and Mace kicked him off the council. Did you not read the books?

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tommen is not going to have a say in the trial. It is a trial-by-combat, meaning the Seven decide, not the king. Technically the gods speak their will in who wins the duel, but if one party were to use black magic to rig said duel and deceive the Seven then things could go differently.

Black magic is no match for the power of the Seven, or so the Faith will hold. The results of the trial are final and definitive. That's the whole point of a trial by combat.

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And of course Robert Strong wouldn't lift his helmet of his own free will - but there will be a fight, so there is a chance that it might be knocked off. And considering Gregor Clegane's behavior at the last trial-by-combat chances are not that bad that he might ran amok or shout out who and what he is if he feels like it. Chances are not that high that this guy is just some kind of mindless robot doing everything Qyburn asks him to.

Who does the HS have that would even pose the slightest challenge to UnGregor? No one in the text. And in fact "a mindless robot" is exactly what he appears to be.

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei doesn't have the men to protect her when she goes to the trial. There are tens of thousands of sparrows in the city, and the Lannisters are down to a couple of hundred of guardsmen. They have no army. Mace has an army in the city, but he is not going to use those men to protect Cersei. If Cersei goes to the trial she will be effectively in the hands of the Faith ... again.

Cersei has all the Tyrell troops in the city behind her. If she loses, Margaery is no longer queen. That's not just my judgement, that's Kevan's, and Mace accepted it.

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to assume that there will be a Margaery trial if the trial-by-combat will blow up or go not according to plan. If Mace were to cancel the trial, as suggested by Mace and Randyll in the Epilogue, then this is certainly going to raise tensions but no way near in the same degree if the nature/identity of Robert Strong were revealed.

Margaery's case is entirely separate from Cersei's, and and is not dependent on the outcome of Cersei's trial. You really didn't read the epilogue, did you? Randyll was not in any way part of Mace's suggestion to quash the charges. In fact, in ADWD Cersei I Kevan tells Cersei that Tarly swore a holy oath to deliver Margaery to trial in return for her release. If Mace quashes the charges (and Tarly can't deliver Margaery to trial), not only is that oath broken, Tarly is dishonored by his lord, and will likely desert to fAegon.

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

What remaining Lannisters are you talking about?

Harys Swyft and the Red Cloaks, as I said. Swyft must soon leave for Braavos, of course. The Red Cloaks are too few to hold the city, but together with the Green and Gold Cloaks, they could hold the Red Keep.

51 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Mace doesn't need Tommen if he thinks he can marry Margaery to Aegon - which he might start to seriously consider. Mace could work with Kevan but without him he might decide to ditch the Lannisters ... especially if there are still many Targaryen loyalists in his army.

Mace already has Tommen. Why should he give him up for a "feigned boy"?

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And the High Septon is not going to consult with anybody before denouncing anyone. The idea for possible Gregor Clegane zombie revelation at the trial is a situation akin to Ned's execution. Cersei and her people also didn't have a real interest in that happening ... but it did happen anyway. So the idea would be that Robert Strong wins the duel but reveals who and what he is in the process of doing that ...

The chance of that happening is so infinitesimally small it is not worth bothering over. The only warriors in the realm that could still challenge UnGregor are Garlan Tyrell and Sandor Clegane. They won't be there. The High Septon HAS NO RIGHT to denounce anyone. He is the spokesman of the gods. An appeal has been made to the gods, and their decision is final. He must honor it, or he denies his own faith.

Lord Varys, not only do I see no evidence supporting your arguments, I see outright contradictions of the text. Don't bother replying - I'm leaving this board for another extended break, and if I ever come back' I'll do my best to avoid threads you participate in. You are not honest.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

A trial by combat is an appeal to the Seven. The HS literally has no right to overrule it. The rest of your assertion has no evidence to support it.

I expect a surprise there, not something you can draw from already published stuff. But of course the man could do that ... just as he arrested Margaery and Cersei. He can do as he pleases because he knows the Seven and the truth are on his side.

Those trials-by-combat are up to interpretation. Queen Visenya declared Maegor victorious after his Trial of Seven, Beric Dondarrion declared Sandor Clegane the victor of their trial-by-combat, Lysa Arryn did declare Tyrion innocent after Bronn's victory, and so forth.

Somebody would have to make sense of what it meant that some zombie monster was serving on the Kingsguard if that was publicly revealed, don't you think?

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Tommen is on his mother's side. She just dined with him during the epilogue. Qyburn owes all he has to Cersei, and Mace kicked him off the council. Did you not read the books?

Cersei was allowed to dine with Tommen by Kevan. That doesn't mean the boy is on her side. He is a child who does as he is told. And Kevan is dead now. We have no idea who controls the king's person right now. Chances are that Mace is going to secure him, especially since Margaery as the queen might also reside in Maegor's Holdfast by now. Cersei couldn't do it since she doesn't even have freedom of the castle.

Mace didn't throw Qyburn out of the council, Pycelle and Swyft did when Cersei was arrested. Go back and read the last Cersei chapter of AFfC. And while Qyburn owes his rise to Cersei he could easily sell her out to Mace now if Mace were to make an offer. I don't think he will make such an offer since Qyburn was crucial in the plot against Margaery - meaning he is likely keen to destroy Qyburn as much as Cersei - but I'd expect the book to mention why Qyburn doesn't abandon Cersei for the Tyrells ... because she sincerely fucked right now.

But even with Qyburn and his monster - Cersei cannot reclaim the regency. That wouldn't work. I mean, even Kevan himself states in the Epilogue that he has replaced all of Cersei's guards with his own men, meaning she might not even command the allegiance of the Lannister men-at-arms in the castle ... especially not if they came to the conclusion that Cersei might have been behind Kevan's murder. And considering Cersei's paranoia she would not trust any men her uncle brought in ... meaning the chances that she will even try to take command over them are pretty slim.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Black magic is no match for the power of the Seven, or so the Faith will hold. The results of the trial are final and definitive. That's the whole point of a trial by combat.

I don't see the High Septon or any of the sparrows do suffer the victory of a creature like Ser Robert if it is revealed publicly what he is. You have to keep in mind that they don't know that yet.

And of course demons and the Lord of the Seven Hells might be opposed to the Seven in some capacity. We don't need the details of the theology of the Faith. But it strikes me as very, well, convenient to assume that people are just going to shrug off Qyburn's monstrosity and allow the witch-slut to get away with cheating the gods.

I mean, you can also go back to Maegor's Trial of Seven. They fought, people died, and neither side gave a rat's ass about the outcome afterwards. Not the High Septon in Oldtown, not the Warrior's Sons in KL, and definitely not Maegor the Cruel himself.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Who does the HS have that would even pose the slightest challenge to UnGregor? No one in the text. And in fact "a mindless robot" is exactly what he appears to be.

Considering we only saw him in the flesh once, in Cersei 2, I reserve judgment on that. But even a mindless zombie robot would still be visibly a monster if people saw him for what he was.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Cersei has all the Tyrell troops in the city behind her. If she loses, Margaery is no longer queen. That's not just my judgement, that's Kevan's, and Mace accepted it.

No, if the Faith were to denounce Tommen/Myrcella as incest bastards then Mace has a choice to make: He can either go against the Faith defending Cersei and her abominations ... or he can cut his losses and try to throw in his lot with Aegon. Or just stand aside, not committing himself to either side. In any case, Cersei would have to gain nothing from that. If Tyrell troops were to save her from the wrath of the Kingslanders and the Faith then she would be Mace's prisoner. Mace can insist Tommen is still king while imprisoning, torturing, or killing Cersei. Those things are not mutually exclusive. Mace doesn't need Cersei at all. He could try to control CR simply through Tommen or Myrcella who happen to be Cersei's heirs. If something happened to her Tommen himself would be the new Lord of Casterly Rock.

The crucial thing here is that Mace was willing to (sort of) work with Kevan, but it is equally made clear in the Epilogue - by the tensions the soldiers of both houses feel and the hatred of the two queens for each other which is mentioned hints at - that Mace is not going to work with Cersei. That was why they had the walk. Cersei had to be destroyed, to be shipped back to the Rock and removed from government for there to be an accordance with the Tyrells, the Lannisters, and the Faith.

Now that no longer works.

I did not say that Mace and the Tyrells will be happy if the High Septon denounces Tommen/Myrcella as bastards. They do have considerable motivation to be angry about that. But that doesn't mean it won't happen. Because the scenario is not that the High Septon double-checks with Mace what to do after he realizes who and what Ser Robert is.

And to be sure - can Gregor Clegane even be a Kingsguard if he took his vows under a false name? Is that the correct procedure? I'd expect that thing would also provide an interesting loophole if people wanted to challenge the outcome of the trial.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Margaery's case is entirely separate from Cersei's, and and is not dependent on the outcome of Cersei's trial. You really didn't read the epilogue, did you? Randyll was not in any way part of Mace's suggestion to quash the charges. In fact, in ADWD Cersei I Kevan tells Cersei that Tarly swore a holy oath to deliver Margaery to trial in return for her release. If Mace quashes the charges (and Tarly can't deliver Margaery to trial), not only is that oath broken, Tarly is dishonored by his lord, and will likely desert to fAegon.

I think you either didn't read the Epilogue or have forgotten what's written there. Tarly is the guy who is pissed that they have caper to the whims of sparrows:

Quote

Lord Randyll snorted. “What have we become, when kings and high lords must dance to the twittering of sparrows?”

He doesn't give two groats about this 'holy vow' he swore, it seems.

And there is no indication whatsoever that Tarly will ever defect to Aegon. He dimisses him as a feigned boy repeatedly. That isn't the talk of a potential Targaryen defector ... at least not while Mace Tyrell sticks with Tommen. If Mace wanted to jump ship Tarly is not likely to object.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Harys Swyft and the Red Cloaks, as I said. Swyft must soon leave for Braavos, of course. The Red Cloaks are too few to hold the city, but together with the Green and Gold Cloaks, they could hold the Red Keep.

But we don't know when he will go. The Goldcloaks are not stationed in the castle but the city, and they might not exactly be loyal to King Tommen considering they have a new obscure commander in that Ser Humfrey Waters fellow, previously captain of the Dragon Gate (a rather ominous previous post for a guy who is supposed to stand with lions and roses, if you ask me).

Whoever holds the castle isn't that important in this trial context because both trials are supposed to take place on the other hill. They have to leave the castle for those trials to take place.

If Tommen's administration were to lose the city to the Faith, Targaryen loyalists, or other rioters they would be done. If they cannot control who enters the city they would end up like Rhaenyra.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Mace already has Tommen. Why should he give him up for a "feigned boy"?

Because he might realize that the Lannister ship has sailed if the High Septon denounces Tommen and Myrcella as bastards. Tommen's marriage was never consummated, so this thing is easily set aside even if Tommen were to live to a ripe old age.

The point is that the Tyrells aren't glued to Tommen in the same way the Lannisters are. They have other options if push comes to shove. And chances are very low that Mace and Margaery are looking forward to continue an alliance with Cersei after what she pulled ... and never forget what they pulled earlier: Mace might perhaps not know about the Joffrey plot, but Margaery must. And after what Cersei tried to do to her without knowing the truth she will be rather concerned about what might happen if Cersei ever found out/realized what they did to her eldest son. This alone should ensure that there won't be any working relationship between them.

And Cersei will eventually find out, of course. The entire point of dark secrets is to come out eventually. It might be one of the things which really unhinge so she can turn into a proper force of destruction. Right now she still wants to secure things for her children. But when they are gone and she learns how much people fucked with her before she will do anything to destroy them all.

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

The chance of that happening is so infinitesimally small it is not worth bothering over. The only warriors in the realm that could still challenge UnGregor are Garlan Tyrell and Sandor Clegane. They won't be there. The High Septon HAS NO RIGHT to denounce anyone. He is the spokesman of the gods. An appeal has been made to the gods, and their decision is final. He must honor it, or he denies his own faith.

This is nothing you can dismiss with made-up stuff about what the High Septon can and cannot do. We don't know what he can do. You don't have to like this scenario, of course, but you cannot dismiss it on the basis of invented nonsense ... especially in light of the fact that a twist like that is much more likely to occur than everything going according the plans of Cersei the Genius.

I certainly can be wrong about this ... but I'd wager that you are much more wrong than I since this is not going to go as planned. Something will happen to fuck things up.

And again, double-check with the High Septon fighting Maegor. Nobody said anything about the monster being defeated. Just to knock off his helmet or do something else that makes clear that he is an undead monster. Like injure him somewhat and there being no blood. Or him suffering a serious or mortal wound and him shrugging it off - which would also reveal that he isn't a normal guy. All of that or something like that can happen. I mean, there is a reason why the author gave us a zombie monster Kingsguard. And that reason should be for this character actually do stuff only zombie monster characters can do.

And keep in mind that Gregor was never that fast, and zombification may have slowed him down some more. All it would take was some lucky blast to the head or some other vulnerable part of the armor ... and even Maegor the Cruel couldn't prevent a serious head injury during his Trial of Seven.

And to be honest - we have no idea who is going to face Ser Robert Strong nor what kind of warriors have joined the Faith Militant in the meantime. Do not underestimate the power of fanaticism. The High Septon might choose a champion who doesn't bother whether he lives or dies. We see how devastating suicide attacks can with the Winter Wolves in the Dance. If the Faith's champion were to give anything in his power to get close enough to Strong to batter his head then he certainly should be able to do this.

Imagine the Faith's champion dancing around Robert and then simply jumping on him, ripping of his helmet in an attempt stab at his neck. That should doable. Robert would like crush the guy beneath his own monstrously heavy armor, but he could still deal him a wound that would kill a mortal man ... while surviving himself long enough to technically qualify as the victor of the duel (like Gregor did when Oberyn merely mortally wounded him).

5 minutes ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Lord Varys, not only do I see no evidence supporting your arguments, I see outright contradictions of the text. Don't bother replying - I'm leaving this board for another extended break, and if I ever come back' I'll do my best to avoid threads you participate in. You are not honest.

I can return that compliment ... especially in relation to your alleged 'textual knowledge'. But I guess other people might have fun reading this, so I'm not going to delete what I wrote.

[BlackLightning]

21 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said:

Ser Harys Swyft was still in KL as of ADwD epilogue. Raff was presumably part of Red Ronnet's escort at the same time. They haven't left yet.

Oh okay. I forgot about that...

Good to know. But it makes the revision and the placement of Mercy that much more important.

[Leonardo]

I read about the tweaking and my only thought was “wow we’re never getting all the books”

 

I agree with condensing the Tyrion and Barristan and Vic stuff, it overlapped too much and wasted page space on a battle with a mostly foregone conclusion, we’re just waiting for the horn at the end and whether it gets blown at all. Everything else is minor bow tie stuff

[Jekse]

Something I would like to see changed from Theon I is Mors Umber going out of Stannis' camp to slow the Frey's down. It's an almost entirely useless plan that would barely slow the Frey's down. I had also suspected Mors of working with Hother and Manderly to betray Stannis, though the leaked asha chapter seems to have thrown a wrench in those plans.

[Jekse]

22 hours ago, Leonardo said:

I read about the tweaking and my only thought was “wow we’re never getting all the books”

 

I share that feeling. I don't see what really could be changed from the sample chapters at this point. The chapter that we know of now are:
alayne 
arianne I & II
Tyrion I & II
Barristan I & II
Victarion
Theon I
Mercy
and The Forsaken
Really I don't see anything that would needed to be changed from the chapters of which we have a full transcript, except for Mors in the Theon chapter which I've written above ^
People say Mercy needs revising, but he'd been working on the Mercy chaptor for twelve years before publishing that one in 2014. I doubt he'd revisit that chapter for anything but fixing the mistakes in the text.
On second thought, I do see him revisiting Mercy; in his blog post he wrote ''Some very old'', Mercy is the only chapter that we know of that wasn't taken from Dance to put in Winds, and he started working on it in 2002. 
The other thing I see him changing is in either Tyrion I, Barristan II or the latter part of the Victarion chapter, for these ones we've only gotten a fan summary.
Really; him rewriting 10+ year old Battle of Fire chapters really seems quite bad. I know he doesn't write chronologically. But I really did not think he would still be working on fucking Mereen chapters in 2020. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I'm fine with the tweaking of the earlier chapters. The Tyrion sample from ADwD that's posted on here somewhere was tweaked a lot. The timeline was changed in it, a few things were removed, other things were added. Like Benerro was introduced in that sample chapter but removed to be introduced later instead. Illyrio's thoughts about Dany were also changed to something more admiring and the dragon has three heads line was completely dropped from the chapter. 

I think some chapters can stand to be tweaked. The Victarion chapter is not necessary, imo, since Barristan does see the ships and what's on their sails. And we know that it's the ironborn who are fighting their way through the blockade. That whole chapter can be incorporated into another.

[Tyrion1991]

On 11/10/2020 at 9:13 PM, Ibbison from Ibben said:

from Not a Blog -Nov 8, 2020

So...

Are there any changes you think he should make in the published/read sample chapters? Are there any changes you think he might make, but would disagree with?

I have one desired change. In Alayne I, LF sets up a party with Alayne/Sansa in a featured position. It's a fantasy come true for Sansa. Yet remarkably, GRRM provides no description of Sansa's dress. Given that it is a Sansa POV chapter, I find this completely OOC. George needs to channel his inner Jim Rigney and provide a description.

Any others?

 

I think he will massively condense the Battle of Mereen. It makes no sense having 9 plus chapters on an intro battle.

There is no reason to put what was obviously intended to be the grand set piece battle to conclude ADWD with all its multiple POV chapters and complexity to what’s basically just an intro battle. I don’t think he could quite Battle of the Fist and just have the battle recollected by Sam. But that’s the sort of treatment it would have to get. You could tell from the preview chapters that he was rehashing information and setup to desperately claw back narrative tension and just explain what was going on.

I think he has no choice and really he made that the moment he chose to cut the battle from Dance. They’re now basically dead weight since Dany has opted to leave for Westeros it only serves to tie up loose ends and can’t be the grand spectacle it was intended to be at the end of a very tense book in Dance.

However there would be enormous pressure on him not to do that. Not only because these plots are significant cliffhangers people have waited a decade for but because he’s already read them out we know he has the material. 

I’ll say it right now. George is not writing Winds of Winter. He’s writing Dance with Dragons part 3.

—

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 11/10/2020 at 1:13 PM, Ibbison from Ibben said:

I have one desired change. In Alayne I, LF sets up a party with Alayne/Sansa in a featured position. It's a fantasy come true for Sansa. Yet remarkably, GRRM provides no description of Sansa's dress. Given that it is a Sansa POV chapter, I find this completely OOC. George needs to channel his inner Jim Rigney and provide a description.

Thank you!! Sansa is the Cher Horowitz of Westeros! We have to have a fashion description, even if she is wearing more modest clothes.

[BlackLightning]

On 11/19/2020 at 12:10 PM, Jekse said:

Something I would like to see changed from Theon I is Mors Umber going out of Stannis' camp to slow the Frey's down. It's an almost entirely useless plan that would barely slow the Frey's down. I had also suspected Mors of working with Hother and Manderly to betray Stannis, though the leaked asha chapter seems to have thrown a wrench in those plans.

Wait what about a leaked Asha chapter?

How on Earth did it leak? GRRM has that stuff locked up like Fort Knox.

On 11/26/2020 at 9:28 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

I think he has no choice and really he made that the moment he chose to cut the battle from Dance. They’re now basically dead weight since Dany has opted to leave for Westeros it only serves to tie up loose ends and can’t be the grand spectacle it was intended to be at the end of a very tense book in Dance.

Yeah he made a big mistake not including the Battle of Meereen in Dance. The Battle of Winterfell should've also been in Dance but it makes sense on a lot of different levels why it was left out. But the Battle of Meereen? Dragons gone wild and dancing in the skies during a battle about freedom from control and oppression...in a book called A Dance with Dragons?

He messed that up.

He could've rectifying it ahead of time by putting the first Asha chapter in Dance along with all the Jaime and Cersei chapters Dance chapters in Feast. Also Tyrion had WAAAAAAYYYYYYY too many chapters in Dance. Cut those down and he would've had more room.

[SeanF]

8 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Wait what about a leaked Asha chapter?

How on Earth did it leak? GRRM has that stuff locked up like Fort Knox.

Yeah he made a big mistake not including the Battle of Meereen in Dance. The Battle of Winterfell should've also been in Dance but it makes sense on a lot of different levels why it was left out. But the Battle of Meereen? Dragons gone wild and dancing in the skies during a battle about freedom from control and oppression...in a book called A Dance with Dragons?

He messed that up.

He could've rectifying it ahead of time by putting the first Asha chapter in Dance along with all the Jaime and Cersei chapters Dance chapters in Feast. Also Tyrion had WAAAAAAYYYYYYY too many chapters in Dance. Cut those down and he would've had more room.

Dany’s story in Dance could also have been pruned, leaving room for the battle.

[The Winged Griffin]

13 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Wait what about a leaked Asha chapter?

How on Earth did it leak? GRRM has that stuff locked up like Fort Knox.

It's not really a chapter, it's more of a proto-chapter. A picture of George working on his computer was extracted from John Oliver's show in 2014 IIRC, and crazy people zoomed and enhanced his screen. What was found is part of what is most likely Asha's first chapter in Winds, and it is currently known as the Asha Fragment. 

On 11/19/2020 at 7:10 PM, Jekse said:

Something I would like to see changed from Theon I is Mors Umber going out of Stannis' camp to slow the Frey's down. It's an almost entirely useless plan that would barely slow the Frey's down. I had also suspected Mors of working with Hother and Manderly to betray Stannis, though the leaked asha chapter seems to have thrown a wrench in those plans.

The point of having Mors outside Winterfell was for him to pick up Theon and Jeyne when they escaped, and to increase the tension inside the walls by having everyone think that Stannis had arrived. From George's perspective, having him laying traps for the Freys wasn't so much about slowing the Freys down, it was more about getting Aenys Frey killed, so that the command of the army would pass to his brother Ser Stupid, Hosteen Frey, giving Stannis better chances of winning the battle. 

[Loras]

On 11/25/2020 at 9:21 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think some chapters can stand to be tweaked. The Victarion chapter is not necessary, imo, since Barristan does see the ships and what's on their sails. And we know that it's the ironborn who are fighting their way through the blockade. That whole chapter can be incorporated into another.

I disagree about the Victarion chapter.  

The battle of fire is going to open the novel and one of the big payoffs during that battle will be the sounding of the ‘dragonhorn’.  I think it is important to re-establish those relationships, items, and characters prior to the battle.

1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

It's not really a chapter, it's more of a proto-chapter. A picture of George working on his computer was extracted from John Oliver's show in 2014 IIRC, and crazy people zoomed and enhanced his screen. What was found is part of what is most likely Asha's first chapter in Winds, and it is currently known as the Asha Fragment.

One of the things that I’ve been wondering about with the discussion of ‘Theon 1’ is whether there would be an ‘Asha 1’ that will be used to re-establish Stannis’ camp and all the characters that takes place before the Theon chapter - one where she comes up with the idea that she introduces at the end of Theon 1?

 

[The Winged Griffin]

28 minutes ago, Loras said:

One of the things that I’ve been wondering about with the discussion of ‘Theon 1’ is whether there would be an ‘Asha 1’ that will be used to re-establish Stannis’ camp and all the characters that takes place before the Theon chapter - one where she comes up with the idea that she introduces at the end of Theon 1?

Well I think the Theon I sample chapter works well as a refresher chapter, and it condenses all the action at the crofter's village before the battle in one chapter. If there is an Asha chapter before this one, it would be entirely filled with memory refreshers, and little to no action, so it would be an unnecessary cost in pages imo. The Asha fragment shows us the arrival of the Freys, but I think we'll see Arnolf Karstark and Theon's executions before that. It would leave enough time for the refreshers that weren't put in Theon I to pop up. 

[Loras]

4 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Well I think the Theon I sample chapter works well as a refresher chapter, and it condenses all the action at the crofter's village before the battle in one chapter. If there is an Asha chapter before this one, it would be entirely filled with memory refreshers, and little to no action, so it would be an unnecessary cost in pages imo. The Asha fragment shows us the arrival of the Freys, but I think we'll see Arnolf Karstark and Theon's executions before that. It would leave enough time for the refreshers that weren't put in Theon I to pop up. 

This is a good point, especially if Asha is the viewpoint for the execution of Shireen Baratheon.  Martin does quite like mirror imagery in the first and final chapters of a character’s arc in a book.

I’m not sure whether the Theon chapter is a good refresher - it’s really complex.  Particularly when it comes to the Karstark plot - though it is a shame that this plot wasn’t resolved in ADWD because I think this payoff is quite complicated for the opening chapter in the ‘Northern’ arc for the novel.  It requires you to remember a lot of information about the Karstarks from ‘Dance’.

[The Winged Griffin]

4 minutes ago, Loras said:

This is a good point, especially if Asha is the viewpoint for the execution of Shireen Baratheon.  Martin does quite like mirror imagery in the first and final chapters of a character’s arc in a book.

I don't think Asha will remain by Stannis's side until he burns Shireen. The most likely POV to witness this would have to be Melisandre late in TWOW, or whoever the POV for the epilogue will be (if Stannis burning Shireen happens in the epilogue, that is). 

I still think Asha will escape with her ironborn friends right after or during the Battle of Ice, and with or without Theon, so that she can take back the Iron Islands later in ADOS. There is clearly some plot in this area left for her and Theon, and she will not stay by Stannis's side forever. 

11 minutes ago, Loras said:

I’m not sure whether the Theon chapter is a good refresher - it’s really complex.

 I agree with you, it's not perfect in terms of memory-refreshing, but as I said, I think there will still be some room left before the battle in Asha I for what Theon I didn't remind us of. Asha has the advantage of knowing the different lieutenants of Stannis's army better, so we might have more insight on the situation from her perspective. Hence why it would be interesting to have the rest of the refreshers in her first TWOW chapter. 

[Loras]

5 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I agree with you, it's not perfect in terms of memory-refreshing, but as I said, I think there will still be some room left before the battle in Asha I for what Theon I didn't remind us of. Asha has the advantage of knowing the different lieutenants of Stannis's army better, so we might have more insight on the situation from her perspective. Hence why it would be interesting to have the rest of the refreshers in her first TWOW chapter. 

Do you think that the Asha fragment is from her first viewpoint chapter in ‘Winds’? If so, there will be lots going on in the chapter.

6 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I still think Asha will escape with her ironborn friends right after or during the Battle of Ice, and with or without Theon, so that she can take back the Iron Islands later in ADOS. There is clearly some plot in this area left for her and Theon, and she will not stay by Stannis's side forever.

This is something about the distribution of viewpoints that I find really challenging in the early parts of Winds.  I don’t see Asha escaping without Theon (she has a broken ankle too), and I don’t see Theon escaping some sort of reckoning with the Boltons.

Coming back to the topic, I don’t really know much about the opening Tyrion chapter.  I feel that the second chapter could be just as effective an opener as his previous one? Although that could be bias against these Tyrion in the Yunkish camps chapters.

I really hope that Martin doesn’t make any major changes to the Alayne or Arianne chapters!

[The Winged Griffin]

15 minutes ago, Loras said:

Do you think that the Asha fragment is from her first viewpoint chapter in ‘Winds’? If so, there will be lots going on in the chapter.

I think so, but I'm probably wrong who knows? in Theon I we learn that the Frey army is only 3 days from the crofter's village, and that was when Theon escaped Winterfell. The Frey army could literally arrive at any moment as of the end of Theon I, so I think having another Asha (or Theon btw) chapter before the battle would be difficult in terms of timing. 

 

19 minutes ago, Loras said:

Coming back to the topic, I don’t really know much about the opening Tyrion chapter.  I feel that the second chapter could be just as effective an opener as his previous one? Although that could be bias against these Tyrion in the Yunkish camps chapters.

Tyrion I has never been fully retranscribed, so we'll never be able to know exactly to what extent it needs to be changed (or not). But I think it is still necessary, because Brown Ben Plumm is negociating a possible return into Daenerys's service with Tyrion in his last chapter in ADWD, but we see the Second Sons turning their cloaks in Tyrion II. if you remove Tyrion I entirely, BBP went from unsure and trying to have guarantees to effectively switching sides without any event or pressure forcing/encouraging him to do so in between. While the cyvasse game between Tyrion and BBP can be shifted to Tyrion II, the ending with the arrival of the Ironborn fleet cannot. It works really well as a way to end a chapter imo, and the Seconds Sons turning their cloaks is better as a chapter ending as well.

So even though Tyrion I and II could be rearranged in one big, action packed chapter, I think they work better as two entirely separate chapters.