GRRM is tweaking sample chapters. Desired/feared changes?

[Mithras]

I think the fragment is from the first Asha chapter. Here is how I expect it to be:

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Theon is brought before the weirwood tree. He confesses the truth about the boys he killed. His story is confirmed. Theon asks to take the black. Stannis spares Theon and sends him to the Wall along with Massey’s party. Many days pass before the battle starts. Cold count skyrockets. Starvation and cannibalism run rampart. The morale in the camp dips. Desertions start, especially among the Karstark and Peasebury men. Finally, Freys arrive. Battle on Ice starts. Frey vanguard easily breaks the hungry and weak ranks of Stannis. The host of Stannis is routed. Survivors flee all over the frozen lakes. Freys give them chase. This is when the ice breaks. Both the fleeing men and their pursuers drown by the hundreds. Freys still have their reserves and supply train intact. Asha spots the Manderly knights charging to battle. She thinks all is lost.

This is just a summary of the chapter though. Theon's confession and departure will be provided as flashback. Desertions, cold casualties and cannibalism will also be given as flashback or as passing mentions. The impending start of the Battle on Ice might be the opening of the chapter. After the flashbacks are provided in the chapter, the battle proper starts. Asha observes the defeat as it unfolds. The breaking of the ice comes as a shock but the remaining Freys regain the upper hand. Stannis is left with only dozens of followers. The ironborn are all slain except Asha. At this moment Asha spots the Manderlys blowing their horns and charging to battle. She thinks this is the final nail in the coffin. And the chapter ends here.

This chapter, along with the preceding Theon chapter, should have been in ADwD. In that case, the Pink Letter would have worked much better as a plot device. The publishers twisted GRRM's arm into releasing ADwD before it was complete in order to ride the GoT wave. And rode they did.

Before the SPLIT, AFfC was supposed to cover all the POVs. In this shorter version of the story, I am convinced that the last Davos chapter would be the one where Lord Manderly orders his execution at the Merman's Court and the last we see Stannis would be like this (i.e. about to get slain in battle) in an Asha chapter; followed by the Pink Letter in the final Jon chapter. Therefore, the readers would be led to think that both Davos and Stannis (along with Asha) were dead and the Pink Letter was totally true. Only in the next volume (which was supposed to be the actual ADwD, not the "thing" we have now) would it be revealed that they were both alive. But GRRM was saying in interviews that readers should not take anything for granted before seeing it regarding the fates of Stannis and Davos.

 

[Lord Varys]

The fragment comes from a picture of Anne Groell and her screen ... and it confirms that Hosteen Frey did away with Mors Umber and his boys, and they now use Mors's head as a banner.

1 hour ago, Mithras said:

I think the fragment is from the first Asha chapter. Here is how I expect it to be:

This is not very likely since we already got confirmation that Stannis is going to use the terrain to his advantage. There will be no silliness like Stannis' people trying to flee across the lake, nor can we expect Hosteen Frey to accomplish anything considering he is both pretty stupid and ruled by his emotions. The fact that Aenys Frey is dead pretty much sealed the fate of the Freys. They will fail and die because they are led by Hosteen the Moron now. Stannis now knows what his enemies know, and he can use that to his advantage. And not just in terrain territory but also insofar as how to use the Karstark levies. The enemy will expect them to turn ... but they won't now, which means this, too, can be used to misdirect and surprise the enemy.

There is also not the slightest indication in the material we already know that it is going to take them a long time to fight. The Karstark maester told Roose about the location of Stannis' army and the village is just a couple of days away. The Freys and Manderlys both are mounted, so it shouldn't take them long to reach the village, never mind the snow.

Also, you completely ignore the determination of the clansmen there. They rode to war to bathe in Bolton blood before they die. They are all people like Roddy the Ruin and his Winter Wolves. They will not retreat, they will not yield, and they will give no quarter. They will kill until they are killed themselves, and they will gladly sacrifice themselves in suicide attacks - very much like the Winter Wolves did at the Fishfeed and First Tumbleton.

And, no, Theon 1 pretty much gives away that the Pink Letter is horseshit. If that chapter had been in ADwD nobody would have ever believed Stannis could lose the coming battle(s). After all, the crucial element in all that was the planned Karstark betrayal. That's the ploy that could have ensured Stannis' defeat ... and Theon 1 removed that from the equation.

But with Hosteen and (quite possibly) Ramsay leading troops there is no chance that the Boltons can win this. Even if the Manderlys stayed true to Roose - which they won't.

What people usually overlook when discussing those things is the Winterfell situation. The Boltons lost 'Arya Stark', and thus all pretense of legitimacy. Aside from Roose's own men most Northmen at Winterfell won't fight and die for a Bolton who lacks 'Lady Arya' - even the Dustins and Ryswells might refuse to fight in such a situation. Things were about to explode when Roose sent the Manderlys and Freys out, and they might continue to deteriorate.

Pretty much nobody fights for the Boltons because 'they are in the right' or they believe in their cause. They fear Roose and they thought he was more likely to prevail ... but as those prospect change so will the determination of the Northmen to fight for Roose. He may already have lost the men who were only at Winterfell because 'Arya Stark' is technically the lady of the place.

[Loras]

20 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Tyrion I has never been fully retranscribed, so we'll never be able to know exactly to what extent it needs to be changed (or not). But I think it is still necessary, because Brown Ben Plumm is negociating a possible return into Daenerys's service with Tyrion in his last chapter in ADWD, but we see the Second Sons turning their cloaks in Tyrion II. if you remove Tyrion I entirely, BBP went from unsure and trying to have guarantees to effectively switching sides without any event or pressure forcing/encouraging him to do so in between

I guess a lot of this is based on speculation about what Tyrion’s ‘Winds’ arc is likely to be. I just feel that the two are a little ‘samey’ or static especially given that in the second chapter, the battle is raging around the Second Sons camp. This could be due to not having read Tyrion I though.

 

21 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

So even though Tyrion I and II could be rearranged in one big, action packed chapter, I think they work better as two entirely separate chapters.

I think two shorter chapters would work much more efficiently in terms of pacing the battle.  The three set up chapters followed by shorter battle chapters.  It seems deliberate that Martin has his characters reacting to the same events to establish chronology within his structure.

[The Winged Griffin]

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We join Tyrion playing cyvasse with Brown Ben, while they wait for "Ser Grandfather's army to sally forth and try to break the siege of Meereen. THese two share banter with other of Brown Ben's staff about what's the worst thing about waiting for the battle to start, punctuated by the sound of the trebuchets as they fling more plague corpses into Meereen. Brown Ben muses that the two dragons are wild cards which could attack anything on either side during the battle. They assume Dany will return on the third dragon and speculate about rescuing the three hostages - Daario, the eunuch and the horse boy - and delivering them to Meereen thereby changing sides a second time but claiming that they only pretended to change sides before so as to learn the Yunkish plans. Tyrion thinks any skepticism about this will be outweighed by gratitude that he killed Dany's most dangerous enemy - Tywin. Just as Tyrion is about to win the cyvasse game Jorah bursts in with news of black sails in the bay (ironborn ships) flying dragon banners.

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the second chapter was a tyrion chapter and mostly consisted of a game of cevasse with brown ben plumm; tyrion slyly begins to coax brown ben into switching sides (again), telling him that nothing would prove his loyalty to dany like the blood of her enemies! they keep getting interrupted by a second son who tells them that there’s a fleet in the bay and that they should probably go look, but brown ben dismisses the boy and tells him it’s probably just the fleet from volantis

eventually jorah mormont himself interrupts the game and informs them that it’s not the volantine fleet at all, but ships with black sails with krakens on them, oh shi!

Two different summaries of Tyrion I, found here on A Forum of Ice and Fire.

We can see that the battle hasn't started yet, but we see Victarion's fleet approaching by the end of that chapter. This means that Tyrion I is after Victarion I, but before Barristan I. This means that Victarion and Barristan's attacks take place literally at the same time. Just as the city gates open and Barristan's men are pouring on the battlefield, Victarion's fleet appears on the horizon and engages the Yunkish ships.  My guess is that we will have a Victarion II chapter right after Barristan I (which ends with Barristan opening the gates) in which we will witness the battle from a naval perspective (honestly, who didn't like Victarion's "The Reaper" chapter?). We also know in Barristan II that the fleets are already engaged and we know in Tyrion II that Barristan has already destroyed 2 (or 3?) trebuchets. This then means that Tyrion II takes place after Barristan II, which itself would take place after the Victarion II chapter I am proposing. So I think a possible order for the battle would be :

- Victarion I

- Tyrion I

- Barristan I

- Victarion II

- Barristan II

- Tyrion II

- More battle chapters after this point (perhaps one for each POV?)

This seems like a lot of chapters, but looking at Tyrion II and Barristan I's lengths, they are only 3200+ and 4400+ words long, which is pretty short compared to Alayne I's 6700+ words or Mercy (6000+ as well). The fact that the battle is going to be cut into many short chapters makes me think that Tyrion I and II can end up being two different chapters without compromising the rest of the book because there won't be enough pages to tell the rest.

Who knows? Maybe Winds will be published in two volumes (a boy can dream...) of 50+ chapters each, released simultaneously? If so, George can have as many lengthy chapters he wants, and none of the sample chapters would require to be condensed, trimmed or entirely cut. 

[Loras]

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

This seems like a lot of chapters, but looking at Tyrion II and Barristan I's lengths, they are only 3200+ and 4400+ words long, which is pretty short compared to Alayne I's 6700+ words or Mercy (6000+ as well). The fact that the battle is going to be cut into many short chapters makes me think that Tyrion I and II can end up being two different chapters without compromising the rest of the book because there won't be enough pages to tell the rest.

I think it’s fairly likely that there will be a number of short chapters to make up the battle itself... we haven’t got to the sounding of the horn yet which is something I’m expecting in the second Victarion chapter (but as far as we know hasn’t yet happened in the timeline of the battle).

The only issue that I have with your proposed order of chapters is that the Barristan chapter ends at dawn, but there must be light for Tyrion and the Second Sons to see the fleet approaching?

is that just a continuity issue though? 

[TheLastWolf]

I want Mors to stay dead. 

But another part of me wants every warrior alive to fuck the Boltons and Freys over 

[The Winged Griffin]

2 hours ago, Loras said:

The only issue that I have with your proposed order of chapters is that the Barristan chapter ends at dawn, but there must be light for Tyrion and the Second Sons to see the fleet approaching?

is that just a continuity issue though? 

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All along the gunwales the faces of the Ironborn peered down, watching as Victarion clapped Wulf One-Ear on the shoulder and sent him clambering up the ladder. The sea was smooth and still, the sky bright with stars.

We know from this passage that Victarion I takes place at night, and as you said Barristan begins his sortie when dawn breaks. 

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Dawn had broken, and a sliver of the rising sun was visible behind the city's walls and towers, blindingly bright. To the west the stars were fading, one by one.

However, Tyrion II seems to be taking place one, perhaps two hours after Barristan I, judging from the fact that the sun is low enough to be hidden by the pyramids, and that stars are still visible in the sky. Enough time for him to take the entire Yunkish army by surprise, and to destroy or take some of the trebuchets. And enough time for Victarion to completely wreck the Yunkish fleet, judging from the number of ships that are burning, and from the fact that the ironborn have managed to break the naval blocus of the city and land men on the beach to take the Yunkish in the rear.

One explanation would be that as Victarion and Barristan's attacks both seem to have been planned to take place at dawn. Meaning that they both take place at the exact same time. Therefore, when Tyrion&Co spot the ironborn sails on the horizon, dawn has already broken, and visibility is starting to become gradually better. So this means that Victarion I, Tyrion I and Barristan I are all taking place simultaneously, and that Tyrion I ends perhaps 5 minutes before Barristan I ends. 

There are however a few problems with the arrival of that ironborn fleet. First, as you said, it's supposedly very dark, so how do they spot the black ships on the horizon? This can be partly explained by the fact that dawn is breaking at that very moment and that visibility is perhaps good enough as a result to spot the sails.

But there's something that surprises me even more. The sails are black and the ships are flying dragon banners. This is the Iron Fleet attacking, with the Iron Victory and Victarion at its head, when it should have been Wulf One-Ear and the merchant ships they captured on their long voyage to Slaver's Bay. Victarion's plan is to pack their captured ships with men belowdecks, and to approach the Yunkish fleet unsuspected, to surprise and board the yunkishmen once they are close enough, and make way for the Iron Fleet, with the real warships, to land men on the beach. So these ships with the black sails and the dragon banners are certainly a discrepancy that would need correction in Tyrion I. 

Now as we do not have a complete transcript of the chapter, we can't be certain if this actually is a discrepancy. Perhaps Wulf's ships have already arrived ("they keep getting interrupted by a second son who tells them that there’s a fleet in the bay and that they should probably go look, but brown ben dismisses the boy and tells him it’s probably just the fleet from volantis" - from the Tyrion I summary), and since we don't have a clear description of how much light there is in this chapter, we can't be sure wether the visibility is actually good enough to spot black sails on the horizon. 

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The White Bull would have called it folly. He would have warned Barristan against trusting sellswords too. This is what it has come to, my queen, Ser Barristan thought. Our fates hinge upon a sellsword's greed. Your city, your people, our lives...the Tattered Prince holds us all in his bloodstained hands.

We can also read in Tyrion II that the Windblown have turned their cloaks, something that Barristan had arranged using Quentyn's former dornish companions as messengers between himself and the Tattered Prince. Something that we are not explicitly reminded of in that same chapter, which is supposedly Barristan's first chapter in Winds. Reminding us of that by having Barristan think back on Quentyn's failed dragontaming attempt and the negociations with his companions wouldn't hurt imo. 

So yeah just a few changes in Tyrion I and Barristan I might be necessary, but nothing too major, nothing that would require a complete rewrite. 

[The Dragon Demands]

Word from Los Siete Reinos is that Martin is restarting his podcast next year?

https://winteriscoming.net/2020/12/29/george-r-r-martin-reportedly-resuming-personal-podcast-song-of-ice-and-fire-winds-of-winter/

[The Winged Griffin]

4 hours ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Word from Los Siete Reinos is that Martin is restarting his podcast next year?

https://winteriscoming.net/2020/12/29/george-r-r-martin-reportedly-resuming-personal-podcast-song-of-ice-and-fire-winds-of-winter/

"UPDATE: Okay, I have since been informed that the post at issue went up on December 28, which is the Spanish equivalent of April Fools’ Day. So this was probably just Los Siete Reinos having some fun."

Sigh... Also I think you posted in the wrong thread aha !

[The Dragon Demands]

Blast!

[Loras]

17 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

But there's something that surprises me even more. The sails are black and the ships are flying dragon banners. This is the Iron Fleet attacking, with the Iron Victory and Victarion at its head, when it should have been Wulf One-Ear and the merchant ships they captured on their long voyage to Slaver's Bay. Victarion's plan is to pack their captured ships with men belowdecks, and to approach the Yunkish fleet unsuspected, to surprise and board the yunkishmen once they are close enough, and make way for the Iron Fleet, with the real warships, to land men on the beach. So these ships with the black sails and the dragon banners are certainly a discrepancy that would need correction in Tyrion I. 

This is a really good point, the arrival of these ships contradicts the plan that is outlined in Victarion I.  Vic's plan was a sort of Trojan horse style thing with the holds of the ships being packed with Ironborn, IIRC.

Perhaps a more appropriate ending would be Jorah bursting in to tell the Second Sons that the gates of Meereen were opening?

Does the second Barristan chapter not have a very similar ending with regards to the arrival of the Iron Fleet?

18 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Something that we are not explicitly reminded of in that same chapter, which is supposedly Barristan's first chapter in Winds. Reminding us of that by having Barristan think back on Quentyn's failed dragontaming attempt and the negociations with his companions wouldn't hurt imo.

I think that would need to go into the first Barristan chapter? It would upset the pace of the battle I think?

[The Winged Griffin]

3 hours ago, Loras said:

Perhaps a more appropriate ending would be Jorah bursting in to tell the Second Sons that the gates of Meereen were opening?

Does the second Barristan chapter not have a very similar ending with regards to the arrival of the Iron Fleet?

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Tumco draws Barristan’s attention to the bay, asking “Why are there so many ships?” Barristan remembers that yesterday there were twenty, but now there are thrice that many. His heart sinks when he reasons that the ships from Volantis must have arrived, but then sees that some of the ships are crashing together.

He asks Tumco, whose young eyes can see more clearly, to identify the banners. Tumco says “Squids, big squids. Like in the Basilisk Isles, where sometimes they drag whole ships down.” Barristan replies, “Where I’m from, we call them krakens.”

Realizing that the Greyjoys have arrived, his first thought is “Has Balon joined with Joffrey, or the Starks?” But he realizes that he’s heard that Balon is dead, and wonders if this has something to do with the Balon’s son, the boy who was a ward of the Starks. He sees that ironmen are coming ashore, fighting the Yunkish, and says, surprised, “They are on our side!” The sellswords did not come to meet his charge because they were already preoccupied with the ironborn!

Barristan is almost gleeful. “It’s like Baelor Breakspear and Prince Maekar, the hammer and the anvil. We have them! We have them!”

This is Barristan II's ending, as summarized by a fan(notice the highlighted passage about squids dragging ships down). Though it is indeed quite similar to Tyrion I's ending (they see the fleet approaching, think this is the Volantene fleet, and then realize it's the Iron Fleet), one difference is that the fleets are already engaged when Barristan sees them, and thinks that they are yet more enemies to fight until they attack the Yunkishmen. And this ending is imo a thousand times more epic and powerful than that of Tyrion I. Now I'm hyped again. Fuck...

One way of avoiding a potential redundance regarding the arrival of the fleet would be having Tyrion I ending with the gates of Meereen opening, as you said, but I think it would break the increasing pace in Barristan I. If Tyrion I ends with the gates of the city opening, it means that Barristan I would have to be situated before Tyrion I rather than after. Meaning that right after reading Barristan's epic speech, the red sun appearing on the horizon and the fire being lit atop the Great Pyramid (all in all, a very epic moment), you go back a few hours in time to read about a cyvasse game with Tyrion trying to get BBP to switch sides again. And after that, you go right back into the action with Barristan II. So despite your idea being really cool as well, I think it would cost a lot of the momentum that was built in Barristan I (and Victarion I as well). 

3 hours ago, Loras said:

I think that would need to go into the first Barristan chapter? It would upset the pace of the battle I think?

Oh yeah sorry, forgot to precise in which chapter the reminder about Barristan's deal with Tatters would need to go. Yes I think it would be better if it was in Barristan I. Like just adding two lines to remind us that Barristan used the two Dornishmen to convey a message to the Tattered Prince, before following up with this: 

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The White Bull would have called it folly. He would have warned Barristan against trusting sellswords too. This is what it has come to, my queen, Ser Barristan thought. Our fates hinge upon a sellsword's greed. Your city, your people, our lives...the Tattered Prince holds us all in his bloodstained hands.

 

[Loras]

17 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

One way of avoiding a potential redundance regarding the arrival of the fleet would be having Tyrion I ending with the gates of Meereen opening, as you said, but I think it would break the increasing pace in Barristan I. If Tyrion I ends with the gates of the city opening, it means that Barristan I would have to be situated before Tyrion I rather than after. Meaning that right after reading Barristan's epic speech, the red sun appearing on the horizon and the fire being lit atop the Great Pyramid (all in all, a very epic moment)

 

17 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

And after that, you go right back into the action with Barristan II. So despite your idea being really cool as well, I think it would cost a lot of the momentum that was built in Barristan I (and Victarion I as well). 

Something very similar happened with ‘The Kingbreaker’ and ‘The Dragon tamer’ at the end of ADWD.  Despite chronologically Quentyn’s chapter happening before (and during) and ending before Barristan’s chapter, it appears after it in the novel.

I think your right with regards to the pace - I am ready for the battle to begin properly at the end of Barristan I, that moment is epic - so I would like this chapter to be the one that runs directly into the battle chapters.

I think Martin could employ the same device as I mentioned above - I think it would be much more effective for a chapter that is effectively about Tyrion trying to convince Ben to switch sides, if the ending is actually about him running out of time... almost like he has run out of turns in Cyvasse... the gates are opening and the battle is beginning.

For me, the ships are not quite as relevant to Tyrion’s story (yet) as they are to Barristan.  It also depends if there is another Victarion chapter in there...

Possible order:

Victarion 1 - Night before the battle

Tyrion 1 - Ends with the gates opening

Barristan 1 - Ends with his speech and dawn breaking

Victarion 2 - Naval engagement? 
 

Barristan 2 - ends with the ships reveal?

Tyrion 2 - ... ends with the white dragon. 
 

Maybe my order doesn’t really work because of the placement of that second Victarion chapter?  I put it there to break up the Barristan chapters.

[The Winged Griffin]

4 hours ago, Loras said:

 

Something very similar happened with ‘The Kingbreaker’ and ‘The Dragon tamer’ at the end of ADWD.  Despite chronologically Quentyn’s chapter happening before (and during) and ending before Barristan’s chapter, it appears after it in the novel.

I think your right with regards to the pace - I am ready for the battle to begin properly at the end of Barristan I, that moment is epic - so I would like this chapter to be the one that runs directly into the battle chapters.

I think Martin could employ the same device as I mentioned above - I think it would be much more effective for a chapter that is effectively about Tyrion trying to convince Ben to switch sides, if the ending is actually about him running out of time... almost like he has run out of turns in Cyvasse... the gates are opening and the battle is beginning.

For me, the ships are not quite as relevant to Tyrion’s story (yet) as they are to Barristan.  It also depends if there is another Victarion chapter in there...

Possible order:

Victarion 1 - Night before the battle

Tyrion 1 - Ends with the gates opening

Barristan 1 - Ends with his speech and dawn breaking

Victarion 2 - Naval engagement? 
 

Barristan 2 - ends with the ships reveal?

Tyrion 2 - ... ends with the white dragon. 
 

Maybe my order doesn’t really work because of the placement of that second Victarion chapter?  I put it there to break up the Barristan chapters.

That's exactly how I expect the battle chapters (five of which are sample champters) will be ordered to start the battle. I personally would love to read about the Qartheen galleys clashing with the ironborn ships. We see the fleet arriving in Tyrion I, but in Barristan II the naval battle is already engaged. While it is possible that there isn't a Victarion chapter about the naval engagements, I think it would be a huge mistake not to include one, on top of a massive missed opportunity to make the battle even more epic and cool than it already is. And as you said, if the chapter order we propose (the order you propose is actually the exact same I was proposing a few posts before ; ) ) happens to be correct, there has to be a chapter between Barristan I and II, and it won't be a Tyrion chapter (what could possibly be told that isn't already included in Tyrion I and II?)

[Loras]

On 12/31/2020 at 1:21 PM, The Winged Griffin said:

That's exactly how I expect the battle chapters (five of which are sample champters) will be ordered to start the battle.

Sorry that I hadn’t read your post closely enough! Though it is nice to have independently come up with the same chapter order! >.<
 

On 12/31/2020 at 1:21 PM, The Winged Griffin said:

We see the fleet arriving in Tyrion I, but in Barristan II the naval battle is already engaged. While it is possible that there isn't a Victarion chapter about the naval engagements, I think it would be a huge mistake not to include one, on top of a massive missed opportunity to make the battle even more epic and cool than it already is.

I decided to reread Tyrion II because I was feeling very underprepared for this discussion.  One thing that I noticed was the number of references to the Ironborn throughout the chapter.  Maybe Tyrion I does have to end with the Ironborn reveal?

I am a little confused by Victarion’s plan though, from Vic I, I don’t really understand whether the taken non-warships are meant to be displaying the banners or not? I’m assuming that they must be due to later events - but I had thought they were going for the element of surprise?

The other things of note though is that Tyrion says that some of the ships are still far off in the bay - and we know that Vic isn’t in the first wave of the attack? So maybe the second Vic chapter occurs after Tyrion II?

This battle is going to be really long! I’m not sure I would count Vic 1 as a battle chapter but Tyrion 1 and Barristan 1 are for sure. It’s going to be much longer than the Blackwater and nothing has gone wrong yet...

Surely the dragonhorn is the game changer? 

[The Winged Griffin]

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I am a little confused by Victarion’s plan though, from Vic I, I don’t really understand whether the taken non-warships are meant to be displaying the banners or not? I’m assuming that they must be due to later events - but I had thought they were going for the element of surprise?

[Victarion to Wulf One-Ear] "The slavers may shiver when they spy your sails rising from the sea" he told him. "but once they see you plain they will laugh at their fears.Traders and fishers, that's all you are. Any man can see that. Let them get close as they like, but keep your men hidden belowdecks until you are ready. Then close, and board them. Free the slaves and feed the slavers to the sea, but take the ships. We will have need of every hull to carry us back home."

So Victarion's plan is clear: use the taken non-warships to lure a false sense of security for the Yunkishmen, and create a distraction for the Iron fleet to arrive safely and possibly land men on the beach unharmed. For that reason, I'd assume that the merchant ships Wul One-Ear commands don't display the dragon banner. Otherwise, there would be no element of surprise at all. 

So there are two possibilities in my mind: 

- The ships Tyrion sees on the horizon at the end of Tyrion I are indeed the merchant fleet, and they are displaying the dragon banner on purpose (though what purpose that woud be is a mystery). If that is the case, then I would assume that this is a mitake that needs to be corrected by George, otherwise Victarion's whole plan makes absolutely no sense, and the whole situation becomes stupid for the sake of ending a chapter in a dramatic way. That's what the show would do, but I don't believe that's what George is doing here. 

- The second option (and the most likely imo) is that the ships Tyrion sees is actually the Iron Fleet, with their black sails and the dragon banner. But why do they attack first, if the plan is for the merchant fleet to take the Yunkishmen by surprise?  They don't attack first. I think the merchant ships are already engaged or about to be by the time Tyrion sees the black sails on the horizon. 

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Dead men and dragons were moving through the sky, whilst warships crashed and clashed on Slaver's Bay. Tyrion could not see them from here, but he could hear the sounds: the crash of hull against hull as ships slammed together, the deep-throated warhorns of the ironborn and queer high whistles of Qarth, the splintering of oars, the shouts and battle cries, the crash of axe on armor, sword on shield, all mingled with the shrieks of wounded men.

Tyrion cannot see the ships in the bay, meaning that no one told him or BBP to go have a look when Wulf's merchant ships arrived, because they didn't raise any suspicion.

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they keep getting interrupted by a second son who tells them that there’s a fleet in the bay and that they should probably go look, but brown ben dismisses the boy and tells him it’s probably just the fleet from volantis

eventually jorah mormont himself interrupts the game and informs them that it’s not the volantine fleet at all, but ships with black sails with krakens on them, oh shi!

Actually, according to this summary they do get interrupted, and apparently more than once, because there are ships in the bay. But they only go have a look when Jorah tells them that this time, the ships have black sails and dragon banners. So I'm assuming that another fleet of ships appeared before. So by the time Tyrion sees the Iron fleet, the merchant fleet is already far closer to the Yunkish ships, and out of Tyrion's sight.

 

The only way we could know for certain would be by having a full transcript of Tyrion I, and potentially even better, getting to read the Victarion II chapter we both assume will be situated between Barristan I and II.  

[The Winged Griffin]

2 hours ago, Loras said:

This battle is going to be really long! I’m not sure I would count Vic 1 as a battle chapter but Tyrion 1 and Barristan 1 are for sure. It’s going to be much longer than the Blackwater and nothing has gone wrong yet...

Surely the dragonhorn is the game changer? 

Well we already have 4 battle chapters (or 5 if you count Victarion I, which I personally do) and as you said, nothing has gone wrong yet. Meaning that there are still a few (I'd say three more, one for each POV) chapters that are needed to bring the battle to a resolution. If we assume Winds is going to be the length of ADWD or ASOS, it means that the Battle of Fire alone could represent at least 10 % of the book in terms of chapters. That's absolutely insane. With everything else, the resolution of all the cliffhangers from ADWD might perhaps represent half the book. The book has to either be a monster book with 100+ chapters, or perhaps 2 books of 50+ chapters, because judging from the pace of the sample chapters (which were all originally meant to be included in ADWD, let's not forget) one ADWD-sized book isn't going to be enough to tell the story up until a point where ADOS is sufficiently set up. 

 

As for the dragonhorn, I expect it to be blown in the chapter right after Tyrion II, which I assume will be a Victarion III chapter (in which I think he'll probably die, but anything is possible at this point).  From that point forward, everything is going to move faster: We already saw in Tyrion II that the Yunkish army is already on the brink of routing, and if the dragons start joining the fray because of the dragonhorn, the battle is going to be over rather quickly, regardless of who they decide to burn. 

[Loras]

19 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

So Victarion's plan is clear: use the taken non-warships to lure a false sense of security for the Yunkishmen, and create a distraction for the Iron fleet to arrive safely and possibly land men on the beach unharmed. For that reason, I'd assume that the merchant ships Wul One-Ear commands don't display the dragon banner. Otherwise, there would be no element of surprise at all. 

And this is where is gets a little bit confusing for me - there isn’t an element of surprise at all.  The only surprising thing is the Ironborn clambering out of the hulls when the slaver fleet gets close enough.

So they have to be displaying banners to provoke some sort of interest from the slaver fleet - but which group of ships are displaying which banners? Or are they displaying the kraken and the dragon (and if they are, wouldn’t that have been a better thing for Tumco to point out to Ser Barristan?).

19 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Actually, according to this summary they do get interrupted, and apparently more than once, because there are ships in the bay. But they only go have a look when Jorah tells them that this time, the ships have black sails and dragon banners. So I'm assuming that another fleet of ships appeared before. So by the time Tyrion sees the Iron fleet, the merchant fleet is already far closer to the Yunkish ships, and out of Tyrion's sight.

So this kind of makes sense: Wulf’s fleet displays dragon banners to provoke the Slavers - who probably wouldn’t recognise the kraken banner anyway? - and Victarion displays the kraken.

20 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

The ships Tyrion sees on the horizon at the end of Tyrion I are indeed the merchant fleet, and they are displaying the dragon banner on purpose (though what purpose that woud be is a mystery). If that is the case, then I would assume that this is a mitake that needs to be corrected by George, otherwise Victarion's whole plan makes absolutely no sense, and the whole situation becomes stupid for the sake of ending a chapter in a dramatic way. That's what the show would do, but I don't believe that's what George is doing here. 

I feel that this would make some sense in terms of recognition of an enemy.  However, Tyrion is very clear it is the Ironborn in his second chapter.  

You’re right, something doesn’t quite add up here.  One of my big questions is why is Tyrion assuming that they are Ironborn in the second chapter if they aren’t displaying kraken banners in the first? It’s a long way from home for the Ironborn - and Barristan also reflects on this in the second sample we have from him.

20 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

The only way we could know for certain would be by having a full transcript of Tyrion I, and potentially even better, getting to read the Victarion II chapter we both assume will be situated between Barristan I and II.

Hopefully this year :-)! 
 

19 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

As for the dragonhorn, I expect it to be blown in the chapter right after Tyrion II, which I assume will be a Victarion III chapter (in which I think he'll probably die, but anything is possible at this point).  From that point forward, everything is going to move faster: We already saw in Tyrion II that the Yunkish army is already on the brink of routing, and if the dragons start joining the fray because of the dragonhorn, the battle is going to be over rather quickly, regardless of who they decide to burn.

This is exactly when I’m expecting it to happen too. I’m expecting the dragonhorn to be a major turning point in the battle - where things start to go wrong for all three viewpoint characters.

If anything, I think that the horn is going to make the dragons a little crazy - not being able to tell friend from foe.  I think we, the audience, needs to see how dangerous the dragons are - and Tyrion certainly does - to really give us cause to think about the role the dragons are playing.  I’m not sure that I’m anticipating the end of Victarion Greyjoy just yet - there are still a number of hanging threads after Vic 1 that I don’t expect to be resolved quite so quickly.

I’m expecting full on action after the horn is blown... Tyrion and Jorah running through the burning camp to rescue the hostages, Barristan and his lads trying to keep their seats as the dragons create chaos, it’s going to be like something out of a war movie.

19 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Well we already have 4 battle chapters (or 5 if you count Victarion I, which I personally do) and as you said, nothing has gone wrong yet. Meaning that there are still a few (I'd say three more, one for each POV) chapters that are needed to bring the battle to a resolution.

Let’s go for five, I’m willing to concede.  Then there is the assumed Vic chapter between the Barristan chapters bringing it to 6.

I’m expecting at least four chapters after this to form some sort of resolution to the battle, I’m not sure Vic will get another one after the dragonhorn.  But Tyrion hasn’t even starting fighting yet - so I’d expect at least one chapter of that - and things haven’t gone awry yet for Barristan so I think there is more to go there too.

I think the battle for Meereen could end up being the longest single battle in the series when all is said and done.

20 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

If we assume Winds is going to be the length of ADWD or ASOS, it means that the Battle of Fire alone could represent at least 10 % of the book in terms of chapters. That's absolutely insane. With everything else, the resolution of all the cliffhangers from ADWD might perhaps represent half the book. The book has to either be a monster book with 100+ chapters, or perhaps 2 books of 50+ chapters, because judging from the pace of the sample chapters (which were all originally meant to be included in ADWD, let's not forget) one ADWD-sized book isn't going to be enough to tell the story up until a point where ADOS is sufficiently set up. 

Im expecting Winds to be released in two halves if I’m honest.  How that split is carried out, I’m not sure.

The other thing to mention though is that these chapters are significantly shorter than the majority of the chapters in ADWD (the battle ones specifically) - so chapter length might not be the best way to determine how full the book is.

That said the remaining samples are all roughly the same length as an average ADWD chapter.

[The Winged Griffin]

We have to remember that the information we have regarding Victarion's fleet arriving is entirely based on fan summaries, which often contradict themselves. So really I think these contradictions have more to do with the different people who did the summaries rather than with George himself. So yeah, as I said, there is little chance that they will end up in the final form of the book. 

Quote

So they have to be displaying banners to provoke some sort of interest from the slaver fleet - but which group of ships are displaying which banners? Or are they displaying the kraken and the dragon (and if they are, wouldn’t that have been a better thing for Tumco to point out to Ser Barristan?).

Indeed, there seems to be further confusion about who displays which banners, because in Tyrion I, the Iron Fleet (I am still very much convinced that Tyrion sees the Iron Fleet rather than the ships that Victarion took on his way to Meereen) displays dragon banners, but in Barristan II, they display kraken banners. But to me, Victarion's entire plan only works if the merchant ships can get close enough to board the Yunkish ships unharmed. Because if they announce themselves clearly as enemies by displaying the dragon banner, it would indeed attract their attention, but what would it distract them from? the city? 

And if the merchant ships arrive with the dragon banners, the Qartheen galleys and Yunkish ships can simply ram them and be done with it. They are fishers and merchants. Their hulls have no chance of resisting if they get rammed. They represent no threat to them, unless and until they get close enough to board the galleys, unsuspected. Really, I feel like the only way Wulf's ships don't get sunk or destroyed is if they play the part until the last moment. Displaying any kind of banner would give away their true nature, so what would be the point of doing that. 

So Victarion's idea is not to surprise the slavers with ships, but rather with men hidden in these ships. 

2 hours ago, Loras said:

This is exactly when I’m expecting it to happen too. I’m expecting the dragonhorn to be a major turning point in the battle - where things start to go wrong for all three viewpoint characters.

If anything, I think that the horn is going to make the dragons a little crazy - not being able to tell friend from foe.  I think we, the audience, needs to see how dangerous the dragons are - and Tyrion certainly does - to really give us cause to think about the role the dragons are playing.  I’m not sure that I’m anticipating the end of Victarion Greyjoy just yet - there are still a number of hanging threads after Vic 1 that I don’t expect to be resolved quite so quickly.

I’m expecting full on action after the horn is blown... Tyrion and Jorah running through the burning camp to rescue the hostages, Barristan and his lads trying to keep their seats as the dragons create chaos, it’s going to be like something out of a war movie.

I think Victarion will die during the battle, either because he blows the horn himself, or because one of the dragons burns him. I could see him realizing that the horn didn't work after the thralls blew it because he thinks they are "lesser men" , and thinking that it will work for a true ironborn. But while there are still threads left hanging as you said, I don't think he'll live very long if he survives the battle anyway. Daenerys will be coming back, and she will punish those who tried to steal her dragons. But this to me, is foreshadowing of Victarion's death in battle : 

Quote

"My hand. What do you know of my hand?"

 

"I have seen you in the nightfires, Victarion Greyjoy. You come striding through the flames stern and fierce, your great axe dripping blood, blind to the tentacles that grasp you at wrist and neck and ankle, the black strings that make you dance."

 

"Dance?" Victarion bristled. "Your nightfires lie. I was not made for dancing, and I am no man's puppet."

The Iron Suitor - ADWD

 

2 hours ago, Loras said:

Im expecting Winds to be released in two halves if I’m honest.  How that split is carried out, I’m not sure.

The other thing to mention though is that these chapters are significantly shorter than the majority of the chapters in ADWD (the battle ones specifically) - so chapter length might not be the best way to determine how full the book is.

That said the remaining samples are all roughly the same length as an average ADWD chapter.

Yes, I think it should be released in two halves, although I think it won't. Because that's the only way to make The Winds of Winter fit into a single book, given the current pace of the story in the sample chapters. And the battle chapters are definitely going to have to be shorter than the others. Barristan I for example, is barely over 3000 words, so if all the others are about that length, the entire battle could be say 10 chapters long, but put together, the number of words would only make 5-6 ADWD-sized chapters, for example. 

[Loras]

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

am still very much convinced that Tyrion sees the Iron Fleet rather than the ships that Victarion took on his way to Meereen)

Depending on how much time passes between Tyrion 1 and Tyrion 2.  We know that in Tyrion 2 he can’t see the naval engagement (but he can hear it).  Tyrion’s location hasn’t changed which implies that the location of the ships has changed (from being visible to being invisible). He should still be able to see the ships further out in the bay though (again depending on where they actually go to see the ships in Tyrion 1).

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

But to me, Victarion's entire plan only works if the merchant ships can get close enough to board the Yunkish ships unharmed. Because if they announce themselves clearly as enemies by displaying the dragon banner, it would indeed attract their attention, but what would it distract them from? the city?

I think it would make sense for Victarion to try and draw ships away from the main body of the Yunkish camp.  He doesn’t know that Ser Barristan is going to attack at dawn, so surely he would want to draw away as many ships as possible to reduce the size of the force that his fleet would have to face?

Announcing themselves as a ‘weak’ target kind of makes perfect sense if that is indeed the plan.  The Yunkish would, in that situation, send some of the fleet over to deal with these interlopers - due to pride.  Similar to the way that the Meereenese nobles sent a champion to deal with Dany’s siege.  When that initial fleet is damaged by the Ironborn hidden in the merchant ships, the Yunkish would be forced to invest more of the fleet to defeat them.

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I think Victarion will die during the battle, either because he blows the horn himself, or because one of the dragons burns him. I could see him realizing that the horn didn't work after the thralls blew it because he thinks they are "lesser men" , and thinking that it will work for a true ironborn. But while there are still threads left hanging as you said, I don't think he'll live very long if he survives the battle anyway. Daenerys will be coming back, and she will punish those who tried to steal her dragons. But this to me, is foreshadowing of Victarion's death in battle

I agree that it is Victarion’s fate to die in battle.  The tentacles are often speculated to belong to Euros Greyjoy though and so it feels like there should be some kind of reckoning between the two brothers.  I also don’t think that the ship can be destroyed by dragon fire in the middle of the bay because Victarion wouldn’t have bloodied his axe yet and Moqorro needs to get back to the mainland somehow!

There is another naval battle to come though between the Iron Fleet and the Volantene fleet too.  But you are right, it’s tricky to predict when his death is going to come - but likely that it will.

I feel like we may need a separate thread to speculate on the Battle By Fire though! :-)