Lord Varys Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, sifth said: You say that, yet Tryion's first trial went exactly how he planned it. I will say you are probably right, and I'm expecting the High Sparrow to somehow discovery Who/What Ser Robert Strong is and use that as an excuse to over throw the Lannisters in the city; kind of like what happened during the original Dance of the Dragons. Just my theory though, for all I know GRRM could take things in a completely different direction. Tyrion's first trial went the way it did because he was smart and Lysa was stupid. But I never suggested that the unknown champion of the Faith will actually win the duel. Far from it. Also, the remark was about both the trials. We don't expect Cersei's trial the way she and Kevan hoped it to go, just as we don't expect that Margaery's trial will go exactly as she and her father hope it will go (if that even takes place). If the High Septon declares Cersei guilty once he realizes what Ser Robert is regardless how the fight went, then most people will go with his interpretation, especially those seeing the Qyborg monster for what it is. 56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said: The problem with Mercy is the timing of it and the political stuff with Ser Harys and the Sweetling. Who is the queen in charge that they are talking about? Are they talking about Cersei or Margaery (Mace will likely fall over himself to make her the new Queen Regent)? If so, how do they not know about their imprisonment, much less Cersei's Walk of Shame? Or the fact that she has been removed from power and Kevan Lannister has taken over? That's BIG news. The common Braavosi may not know but the Sealord and the other noblemen of Braavos would know. Ser Harys would know. It would be his business to know. As I said, I expect the parts about the queen to be revised. Not just to reflect the new status quo but also to reflect the fact that Kevan was Swyft's father-in-law and that he is distraught about his and Dorna's loss. Swyft's entire mission is also likely to be presented as being much more urgent ... and the Braavosi as being a tidbit more hostile considering the AFfC/ADwD made it clear the Iron Bank is leaning in Stannis' direction now. Swyft should be a more desperate man, trying to sweeten the keyholders and other officials, not having a nice time with the courtesans. And to be clear - Margaery can never be the Queen Regent. A regent running the government during the minority of a king - or while he incapacitated - is usually an experienced person. Westeros doesn't like women in charge, and Cersei only made herself regent by staging a coup. They would not throw the regency on a girl who is barely a woman grown, and one whose virtues are in serious doubt right now. If a new regent is appointed - which isn't really necessary since Mace as Hand can exercise the same power since he, too, speaks with the King's Voice. Back when the regency passed from Cersei to Kevan that was only because both the Hand and the regent were gone - Merryweather fled the city, and Cersei was arrested. If Mace bothers with the regency then he will likely take the office himself, not give it to his daughter who is barely an adult and about to face her own trial. That would create the absurd situation - yet again - that a father was technically subject to the authority of his daughter (as it was with Cersei-Tywin) ... something no father would want and something that wouldn't work, anyway, since Mace would still tell his daughter what to do. It could be that the new regent is appointed immediately after Kevan's corpse is discovered ... or they don't bother with that for the time being. 56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said: And then it is a matter of when? If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter, does it mean that we aren't going to hear from or see Arya until after Cersei slithers her way back into power? If that's the case, then we would probably need at least 2-3 Cersei chapters, 3-4 Arianne chapters and maybe 1-2 Connington chapters. Which means that we won't see Arya until...the second third of the book??? Again, don't expect Cersei to return to power. But you are right that Mercy cannot be an early TWoW chapter in any case. If it is the first Arya chapter it is likely only going to come after, say, page 200 or so in the published book. That certainly leaves the possibility of there being another Arya chapter before that, although that would necessitate considerable rewriting of Mercy since Arya would have to have something to do in the previous chapter ... and Mercy effectively has her as an actress learning her lines for quite some time, and all her actor buddies are introduced in that chapter. Thus I'm not very convinced there will be another Arya chapter before that one despite that being a possibility. 56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said: If so, what have Harys Swyft and Raff the Sweetling been doing this whole time? They left for Braavos in what Cersei chapter from A Feast for Crows? Cersei VII or Cersei VIII? That was a long time ago... They haven't left yet. In the Epilogue Kevan tells Swyft to hire some of Gregor's men and the Small Council decides that Swyft should eventually go to Braavos if they don't get any money from Pentos (which Illyrio will see to that they don't). Chances that sending Swyft away will be a top priority after the double murder is also not that likely. He should still be there in Cersei 1 when they discover the bodies and react to that since that's going to take place, we assume, immediately after the Epilogue (i.e. in the night or the next day). Whether Swyft will stay behind and attend Cersei's trial - if that takes place - or be sent to Braavos before that happens we cannot know at that point. But the longer George waits before he sends him the later the Mercy chapter will be placed in TWoW. Although part of the speculative rewrite there about Swyft could be that he just arrived in Braavos when Mercy takes place. 56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said: If that is true, then that means that Arya is a character who is going to experience a sizeable time jump. Because Mercy reads like it is the very last day of Arya's training with Izembaro. If Mercy is the very first Arya chapter in Winds, then we will have seen absolutely none of her training with Izembaro. It doesn't sit right with me and it doesn't sound anything like GRRM. You have a point there, but it might be that the only point of the Izembaro training was that Arya can now play roles like an actress. We don't really need to see her learning that, it might be enough to see how she uses what she learned to deal with Raff. 56 minutes ago, BlackLightning said: How is it possible and sensible to get two Arianne chapters of her travelling from Sunspear to Storm's End (by both land and sea, through Dorne and Stormlands) and two chapters of Tyrion preparing for a battle but we can't even get one Arya chapter of her training as an apprentice. Because things are happening in those chapters when Arya is completely alone and not interacting/preparing for anything significant in her present chapters? Mind you, I'd like another chapter before Mercy. George could place a short chapter there when she arrived, being an extra in another play before they turn to the Forel piece, and perhaps catching up some more with her Nymeria dreams and other stuff. But I don't think we will get a chapter focusing on Arya's time with Izembaro specifically, meaning the kind of chapter we got for when she was Cat. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: Of course. In the medium or long term. But in the short term, Cersei has the advantage, because she has the king on her side. Tommen has the right to appoint new members of the KG. The High Septon has no right to dispute that. Cersei must be represented by a member of the KG. She will be. Tommen is not on anybody's side because nobody tells him anything. He is just a pawn. They didn't tell him about his mother's arrest, her walk, nor about the problems Margaery was/is facing. And right now Cersei doesn't even have access to her son, nor the manpower needed to even try to stage a coup in his name. Hell, she cannot even really count on Qyburn and Ser Robert ... if Mace was making them a better offer than Cersei (not very likely that he will bother, but if he did) then a man like Qyburn - who is only loyal to his experiments - would jump ship immediately. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: There is practically no chance anyone will be able to get UnGregor to remove his helmet. He will stand there, keeping his "vow" of silence. Either the fight occurs and he steamrolls his opponent, or the HS raises a stink and won't let his man fight. In that case, Cersei only need say that she met her obligations, is vindicated, and goes home. Tommen will confirm it. Tommen is not going to have a say in the trial. It is a trial-by-combat, meaning the Seven decide, not the king. Technically the gods speak their will in who wins the duel, but if one party were to use black magic to rig said duel and deceive the Seven then things could go differently. And of course Robert Strong wouldn't lift his helmet of his own free will - but there will be a fight, so there is a chance that it might be knocked off. And considering Gregor Clegane's behavior at the last trial-by-combat chances are not that bad that he might ran amok or shout out who and what he is if he feels like it. Chances are not that high that this guy is just some kind of mindless robot doing everything Qyburn asks him to. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: Of course that means the HS will raise the KL mob. But that will take time. Cersei doesn't have the men to protect her when she goes to the trial. There are tens of thousands of sparrows in the city, and the Lannisters are down to a couple of hundred of guardsmen. They have no army. Mace has an army in the city, but he is not going to use those men to protect Cersei. If Cersei goes to the trial she will be effectively in the hands of the Faith ... again. And Margaery will have a similar problem if she is returned there for her trial ... although Mace having thousands of soldiers will that make a different thing. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: The big loser will be Margaery. The HS can't let both queens get away; he'd lose too much face. He'll rig the jury against her. Or that's what Tyene will report to Mace. And Mace will have Tommen quash the charges against Margaery, just as he suggested in the epilogue. Now the HS will point the mob at both Cersei and Marge. Mace screwed up when he let Cersei's trial go first. Meanwhile, Mace will be advancing House Tyrell's interests at the expense of House Lannister so blatantly that the remaining Lannisters will have no choice but to look to the only real leader available - Cersei. Enter fAegon and Co. There is no reason to assume that there will be a Margaery trial if the trial-by-combat will blow up or go not according to plan. If Mace were to cancel the trial, as suggested by Mace and Randyll in the Epilogue, then this is certainly going to raise tensions but no way near in the same degree if the nature/identity of Robert Strong were revealed. This could mark the beginning of a war between the Faith and Tommen and, especially, between Dorne and Tommen, completely independent of Arianne-Aegon. Neither the Sand Snakes nor Doran Martell will suffer the betrayal with the skull. That was just too much humiliation. What remaining Lannisters are you talking about? There are none in KL. And those back in the Riverlands and the West either have their own plates full or won't have the time to react. Even if they wanted to help Cersei ... how could they even make an impression without first raising another army. Which then would have to get to KL through the Riverlands ... which isn't likely to happen with the folks there taking back their lands and castles and destroying the Lannisters and Freys. And that's a scenario where the Lannisters back home are determined to help Cersei out ... which they weren't when she was arrested as Kevan showed. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: If GRRM was going to change the dynamics in Mercy, he would have done so before posting the chapter. He knew what was in it. But he now confirmed that he changed also chapters he previously released or read from, so, no, there is no reason to assume he would have done it before. Especially since said chapter was never supposed to be a sample chapter in its own right. George released that chapter shortly before GoT episode in the Crossroads Inn aired to ensure that we first got his take on how Arya dealt with Gregor's goons (that the show later used Mercy for the Trant plot in Braavos is something that wasn't clear back then). Mercy is a chapter he worked on for over a decade and its textual history makes it the first Arya chapter after the planned five year gap, meaning at a time when Cersei would have still been in charge. The point to make it fit with the new status quo is when it is finally prepared for publication and it is clear where exactly it will fit in the story ... which is still unclear to us. Clarity will only come there when we know when Harys Swyft is going to Braavos ... which we don't right now. And you have to keep in mind that a more updated version of Mercy could have spoiled things for the reader if Swyft left after the trial(s) and they were referencing them in such a version - as they should. They should also talk about Kevan's murder and who the guys in charge think did it, etc. But I honestly don't think George had bothered to update the chapter at that point. There was no rush with TWoW not exactly being finished. It is the same with the Alayne chapter - that clearly wasn't finished, either. 2 hours ago, Ibbison from Ibben said: And Cersei will have one other ally during her trial - Mace. Kevan explained it to Mace during the epilogue - if Cersei loses her trial, she will be found guilty of incest, Tommen will no longer be king, and Margaery will no longer be queen. Cersei has the law, UnGregor, Mace, and Tommen on her side. She wins (or lives to fight another day.) She makes the HS a mortal enemy, but he pretty much already is. Mace doesn't need Tommen if he thinks he can marry Margaery to Aegon - which he might start to seriously consider. Mace could work with Kevan but without him he might decide to ditch the Lannisters ... especially if there are still many Targaryen loyalists in his army. And the High Septon is not going to consult with anybody before denouncing anyone. The idea for possible Gregor Clegane zombie revelation at the trial is a situation akin to Ned's execution. Cersei and her people also didn't have a real interest in that happening ... but it did happen anyway. So the idea would be that Robert Strong wins the duel but reveals who and what he is in the process of doing that ... and then the High Septon speaks as the Voice of the Seven on Earth - and the avatar of the gods that he is - and declares Cersei guilty and her children abominable bastards born of incest with no claim to the throne. Like people listened to Joffrey when he commanded Ned's execution, people will listen to the High Septon when does that. We did learn in FaB that the Faith used to burn witches at the stake, and what Cersei did there qualifies both as black magic and the vilest form of blasphemy considering she tried to deceive the gods by making a demonic creature her champion. That is not something this society can accept if it ever became public knowledge. It is a miracle that she and Qyburn got this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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