The payoff for Jon Conn's greyscale

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So every plot point has an eventual pay off, that is at least in the works of GRRM and not of Dimwit&Debrained. So what is the payoff of Jon Conn's greyscale? The way I see it there are 2 options

- Jon Conn's character. Jon Conn is a character who's single driving motive is putting Aegon on the Throne. Add that the ticking death sentence of the grey scale and you get a potent mix of a man who would do anything to win the war and win it fast. The eventual payoff would be him breaking guest right to take Storm's End and massacring the prisoners at the end of Stormlands Agincourt. In short the mix of his regret and possible PTSD of the Bells and the Greyscale would transform him into Tywin come again.

- The Grey Plague. There are a lot of theories that Jon Conn will bring about an outbrake of the Grey Plague. Now besides the fast that most post war winters in the past seemed to be accompanied by some sickness (The shivers, the winter fever, the Spring Sickness), there isn't anything to this theory, but a lot of people (probably Dany fans) support it as an excuse of why Aegon's reign will not be good and he will just have to be removed by Dany. No way Dany could be an usurper.

So which one do you think is the case?

[TheLastWolf]

My title. Sry. Rank

[Alyn Oakenfist]

2 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

My title. Sry. Rank

Edited 1 hour ago by TheLastWolf
Rank, not title

Yeah, thing is, killing Jon Conn can be done in quite a lot of ways, killed in battle, killed by Cersei or dying in childbirth, all perfectly good alternatives. So why greyscale?

[Lord Lannister]

Maybe Westeros catches the gray plague, maybe not. Really no way to know. Regardless it definitely has influence on Connington's character. He has willfully chosen to risk those he supposedly cares about and everyone else by exposing them to Grayscale all to accomplish his personal goals. He's on a clock and he's desperate. This is a man who will be capable of any atrocity to accomplish his desires before his time is up.

[TheLastWolf]

21 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yeah, thing is, killing Jon Conn can be done in quite a lot of ways, killed in battle, killed by Cersei or dying in childbirth, all perfectly good alternatives. So why greyscale?

To spread pandemic. Covid 19 surely would have given George the idea in the unlikely case he already hadn't got it 

Edit

Totally agree with @Lord Lannister

[talvikorppi]

54 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Maybe Westeros catches the gray plague, maybe not. Really no way to know. Regardless it definitely has influence on Connington's character. He has willfully chosen to risk those he supposedly cares about and everyone else by exposing them to Grayscale all to accomplish his personal goals. He's on a clock and he's desperate. This is a man who will be capable of any atrocity to accomplish his desires before his time is up.

For now, I think the more important thing is the effet on JonCon's character, the ticking clock. He wants to achieve his life goal of the past dozen or so years, to find personal "redemption", as he sees it.

His musings about how he should've been more like Tywin at the Battle of the Bells doesn't bode well.

However, GRRM put a lot of mentions and explanations about greyscale/grey plague in ADWD so I think some kind of an epidemic seems likely. Maybe from Shireen and JonCon, north and south. As if the situation in Westeros wasn't bad enough already!

Having an epidemic during a prolonged pre-modern war is realistic.  Apparently more soldiers and civillians died from disease (infected wounds, cholera, dysentry, typhys etc. etc.) than actual battle.

[HoodedCrow]

True, talvikorppi. People die of starvation, too. People also die at a greater clip after floods, hurricanes and earthquakes. We still have contaminated water in large parts of the world. I am surprised that Martin tackled the problem of disease, but he did!

[talvikorppi]

11 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

True, talvikorppi. People die of starvation, too. People also die at a greater clip after floods, hurricanes and earthquakes. We still have contaminated water in large parts of the world. I am surprised that Martin tackled the problem of disease, but he did!

True, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters are also fertile breeding ground for epidemics, just as are man-made disasters such as war. Destruction of crops leading to malnutrition and starvation, making the population more susceptible to disease; combined with destruction of infrastructure leading to problems with transport even if help was available, and most of all, poor sanitation that helps to spread disease in an already vulnerable population. To top it all, restricted or no access to modern medicine.

This is happening in our world even at this moment, so of course GRRM has to have it happen in Westeros!

I'm not a big fan of the Meereenese storyline, but I liked how GRRM included the Pale Mare, seemingly a cholera epidemic.

[Only 89 selfies today]

9 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So every plot point has an eventual pay off, that is at least in the works of GRRM and not of Dimwit&Debrained. So what is the payoff of Jon Conn's greyscale? The way I see it there are 2 options

- Jon Conn's character. Jon Conn is a character who's single driving motive is putting Aegon on the Throne. Add that the ticking death sentence of the grey scale and you get a potent mix of a man who would do anything to win the war and win it fast. The eventual payoff would be him breaking guest right to take Storm's End and massacring the prisoners at the end of Stormlands Agincourt. In short the mix of his regret and possible PTSD of the Bells and the Greyscale would transform him into Tywin come again.

- The Grey Plague. There are a lot of theories that Jon Conn will bring about an outbrake of the Grey Plague. Now besides the fast that most post war winters in the past seemed to be accompanied by some sickness (The shivers, the winter fever, the Spring Sickness), there isn't anything to this theory, but a lot of people (probably Dany fans) support it as an excuse of why Aegon's reign will not be good and he will just have to be removed by Dany. No way Dany could be an usurper.

So which one do you think is the case?

I am a fan of Daenerys Targaryen.  But you don't need to be a fan to believe the greyscale will spread from Connington and Shireen.  It's too good of a plot device for George to not use. 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 minute ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

I am a fan of Daenerys Targaryen.  But you don't need to be a fan to believe the greyscale will spread from Connington and Shireen.  It's too good of a plot device for George to not use. 

Oh I didn't say Dany fans in general, heck she's one of my favorite characters too (but after Jaime and Stannis). I meant the people that worship Dany as the God Queen and make up ever more convoluted explanations to try and make her into the perfect messiah.

As for the plot point, it's really hard to say, I think Jon Conn will be discovered, but I don't really see it turning into an epidemic.

[Only 89 selfies today]

Just now, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Oh I didn't say Dany fans in general, heck she's one of my favorite characters too (but after Jaime and Stannis). I meant the people that worship Dany as the God Queen and make up ever more convoluted explanations to try and make her into the perfect messiah.

As for the plot point, it's really hard to say, I think Jon Conn will be discovered, but I don't really see it turning into an epidemic.

The real world pandemic has inflicted enough troubles.  George may leave diseases and pandemics out of his story.  You just never know. 

[Curled Finger]

I'm not convinced seating Aegon is Jon Connington's main objective.  His chapters are filled with regret for things he did not do.  While he drones on in thought about Tywin's decisive and atrocious actions, I'm not sold Jon has the wherewithal to pull it off.  There is an opportunity in this for Connington to be the better man in our estimation if not his own.   Could be Aegon finds out about the greyscale and has him executed.  Locking him up doesn't make a lot of sense when faced with a serious epidemic.  Aegon is impetuous and I wonder if he isn't the one who will screw everything up with his impulsive decisions.   Infecting Aegon is another possibility and I can't get excited to read Connington's remorse and self recrimination over such a thing.  It's just sad and offers no path for redemption on Connington's map of self worth.

With Dany likely to bring half of the free fighting forces in Essos you have to believe there will be numerous people in Westeros by the time she lands.  I'm thinking this greyscale will be the end of Aegon's reign, perhaps extending to the people close to him, but not wide spread throughout Westeros.   

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 minute ago, Curled Finger said:

With Dany likely to bring half of the free fighting forces in Essos you have to believe there will be numerous people in Westeros by the time she lands.  I'm thinking this greyscale will be the end of Aegon's reign, perhaps extending to the people close to him, but not wide spread throughout Westeros.   

Nah, Dany will burn him. If Dany was to be the well loved queen in Westeros it would be a cliché, not to mention that Aegon already fills the savior trope. And what better way to turn her whole ark and identity on her head then have her be seen as an usurper?

[Curled Finger]

1 minute ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Nah, Dany will burn him. If Dany was to be the well loved queen in Westeros it would be a cliché, not to mention that Aegon already fills the savior trope. And what better way to turn her whole ark and identity on her head then have her be seen as an usurper?

Sorry Man, I don't see this at all.   Aegon comes off like an indulged brat.  

[Alyn Oakenfist]

Just now, Curled Finger said:

Sorry Man, I don't see this at all.   Aegon comes off like an indulged brat.  

I'm not talking about personality but how he will be perceived by Westeros. Aegon comes as the first sane, adult and kind pretender Westeros has seen since Renly. He also comes at a time when Cersei will go ballistic, and when the faith is strong and can only chose between Aegon and Tommen, who is an abomination of incest in their eyes. So Aegon will be seen as a savior, especially by the faith and implicitly by the smallfolk, especially if Cersei gets into some wildfire shenanigans, which let's be honest she will

[Curled Finger]

10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I'm not talking about personality but how he will be perceived by Westeros. Aegon comes as the first sane, adult and kind pretender Westeros has seen since Renly. He also comes at a time when Cersei will go ballistic, and when the faith is strong and can only chose between Aegon and Tommen, who is an abomination of incest in their eyes. So Aegon will be seen as a savior, especially by the faith and implicitly by the smallfolk, especially if Cersei gets into some wildfire shenanigans, which let's be honest she will

Maybe I'm just so unimpressed with Aegon I am blind to possibility.  I can see him gain traction, but I can't see everyone just jumping on the Aegon bandwagon.  

[Alyn Oakenfist]

15 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Maybe I'm just so unimpressed with Aegon I am blind to possibility.  I can see him gain traction, but I can't see everyone just jumping on the Aegon bandwagon.  

It's a matter of who else is there? At the moment there are 4 possible pretenders to the Iron Throne.

- Stannis, who is stuck in the North and has the charisma of a brick

- Tommen Cersei, who is slowly going insane, got arrested and Walked of shamed across the city like a common whore and with her mental state being what it is, only GRRM knows what fucked up stuff she will pull at her trial

- Euron, who is a lovecraftian eldrich villain

- And finally Aegon, who has a very strong claim on the Throne and is in general a pleasant, kind and dutiful young man

I wonder who people will chose? Keep in mind that Dany is yet at best a whisper at worst completely unknown to all lords not called Doran. And by the time she does arrive Aegon will have had time to solidify his rule

[Sigella]

3 hours ago, talvikorppi said:

I'm not a big fan of the Meereenese storyline, but I liked how GRRM included the Pale Mare, seemingly a cholera epidemic.

I vote dysentery.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Maybe I'm just so unimpressed with Aegon I am blind to possibility.  I can see him gain traction, but I can't see everyone just jumping on the Aegon bandwagon.  

Totally agree on this. He might get beloved by the smallfolk, but anyone who spends a longer period of time with him will see the Joffy-tendencies.

I imagine Aegon will have Varys spread "the truth" and the smallfolk will eat it up (the propaganda-war between Stannis and Cersei is still being felt so he has an advantage over them pr-wise from the get go anyway) while the nobility already seems certain that he's a fraud and they also have alliances and will need to break faith to side with him which isn't very honourable.

[Curled Finger]

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It's a matter of who else is there? At the moment there are 4 possible pretenders to the Iron Throne.

- Stannis, who is stuck in the North and has the charisma of a brick

- Tommen Cersei, who is slowly going insane, got arrested and Walked of shamed across the city like a common whore and with her mental state being what it is, only GRRM knows what fucked up stuff she will pull at her trial

- Euron, who is a lovecraftian eldrich villain

- And finally Aegon, who has a very strong claim on the Throne and is in general a pleasant, kind and dutiful young man

I wonder who people will chose? Keep in mind that Dany is yet at best a whisper at worst completely unknown to all lords not called Doran. And by the time she does arrive Aegon will have had time to solidify his rule

All true, I just can't see this guy really rallying home forces.  A lot of people will be displaced during his campaign.  Everyone remembers the Mad King.  Who actually knows Cersei is going insane outside the most inner circle?  Aegon is exactly what we are told he is; a manufactured invader.  While I think it's actually pretty sweet that you see this kid as dutiful, pleasant and kind, I think he's a brat.   He hasn't got the first clue about Westeros or the Iron Throne.  He's impulsive and that never ends well.  I'm stunned the high ranking people around Aegon allowed him to take charge when and how he did.  It was a better plan to sign Dany up and get her on board.  I interpret Varys' actions at the end of Dance as doing something he didn't trust Aegon to do: get rid of the options.  While you and I know Cersei isn't an option, no one in story does.  Kinda cheap trick to go kill Kevan when it could have been a glorious kill for Aegon.   So maybe Varys doesn't trust him either?   

Reading my own reply I see where we are not on the same track.  I'm looking at what I think while you are investigating what's going on instory.  Would you really want another contender?  Would you openly trust a guy who has nothing but paid soldiers and exiled (read failed) lords on his team?  I'm thinking the exiled lords alone will be enough to really turn folks off to Aegon.  Maybe a clearer way to look at it is through the eyes of the high lords.  Mace won't have any of it unless his daughter can be queen and she's already married to the current ruling house.  Doran may or may not be in depending on what hairbrained scheme Arianne comes up with.  Little Finger won't want anything to do with him because he didn't dream Aegon up.  Roose Bolton probably won't have time to make up his mind.  The Lannisters run the Riverlands, the Freys will follow suit.  The Westerlands will support the Lannisters.  The Stormlands seem to be the only real support this kid will have, more minor lords be damned.  If Randyll Tarly is the friend in the Reach there will be holy Hell to pay.   Is it worth it?  

[Curled Finger]

45 minutes ago, Sigella said:

I vote dysentery.

Totally agree on this. He might get beloved by the smallfolk, but anyone who spends a longer period of time with him will see the Joffy-tendencies.

I imagine Aegon will have Varys spread "the truth" and the smallfolk will eat it up (the propaganda-war between Stannis and Cersei is still being felt so he has an advantage over them pr-wise from the get go anyway) while the nobility already seems certain that he's a fraud and they also have alliances and will need to break faith to side with him which isn't very honourable.

Yah I think Aegon has an awful lot of ground to gain against the Lannisters, probably Tyrells.  Oh yay, more civil war.   Just what Westeros needs.