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US Politics: holding our breath waiting to see what happens next


Ser Scot A Ellison

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6 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Alito's politically charged address draws heat
The Supreme Court justice warned that not only is freedom of belief under threat, but freedom of expression is as well.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/13/alito-speech-religious-freedom-436412

 

As always, its important not to read tea leaves too deeply, but I wonder if this means some decisions this term aren't going to be going the way Alito had hoped. Scalia used to regularly make more public comments in the leadup to big decisions where the liberal wing was writing the decision. I feel like I remember Alito doing that before too, but I can't remember for sure.

Regardless though, none of what Alito is saying right now would matter if he had 4 fellow SCOTUS justices to change things. Maybe he doesn't. At least not to the extent he wants.

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39 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

They’re not supposed to.  I’ve never said “they don’t”.  

If you are in a State job and refusing to do your job because of your religious predilections your remedy is to resign.  You do not have the authority to impose your faith upon anyone else or refuse to do your job because of your religious beliefs.  Allowing agent’s of the State to do that is a violation of the establishment clause.

Many in this very position would actually conclude that their remedy is specifically to use their position to advance their religious views. This has only been happening since the dawn of the Judiciary, and it's happen nakedly right now in front of our eyes.

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It is time for 10 year terms or a retirement age for Supreme Court Justices.  Let the retired Justices sit on panel if a Justice is out sick, on vacation, or has recused themselves.  

I still think the 18 year rotating cycle is the best idea. That gives every presidential term two picks. 

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How much less likely would litigants be to bring BS cases in the hopes of getting to the Supremes if they cannot predict what panel of the Supremes will hear their case?

That's why the court would be best served with three conservatives, three moderates and three liberals. 

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Count Mary Trump as one person that does not think Donald will run again:

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Mary Trump, the president’s niece, told CNN’s Chris Cuomo that Trump’s talk of running again is just to feed his ego ― but he won’t actually do it for one simple reason.   

“He will never put himself in a position where he can lose like this again,” she said. 

In addition, she said, Trump would have to play a secondary role over the coming four years, something he’s not prone to doing.

 

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3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Looking at the House map, it appears Arizona is the only state outside of those in the North East that is geographically majority Democrat. Not that land area ultimately matters, but it's an interesting bit of trivia to me.

I think Nevada too, though its close. But yeah, the loss of NM-2 and MN-7 really hurt the Democrats land aesthetics. Though New Mexico Democrats already have explicitly said that they're going to gerrymander after redistricting, and I think NM-1 and NM-3 have enough slack in them to keep them safe while making NM-2 at least "Lean Democrat". 

1 hour ago, Maltaran said:

I’m guessing that’s the Navajo Nation

Yep, AZ-1 has the Navajo Nation and multiple other reservations as well. The district is 25% Native American. But is usually a very competitive election because most of what's not Native American are white rural communities; the Trump base. It's got Flagstaff too though, and that's been enough to tip things towards Democrats.

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29 minutes ago, DMC said:

Count Mary Trump as one person that does not think Donald will run again:

 

It's too hard to know, but what we can bet on, assuming he's not in jail, is that he'll still try to suck up all the oxygen in the room. Also, I hadn't looked at his twitter in a while, but the dude is going nuts.
 

 

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17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I really wonder if he’ll try to play “Bonnie Prince Trumpie”.  Claiming to be the “real” President?

In a courtroom in NY, when he claims to have immunity.

Anyway, I didn't come here for (more or less) witty one liners.

No, I came here to share an oped from Der Spiegel. Thought it's itneresting, because it tackles that Personalty Cult myth. @Tywin et al. (among others) is pushing. And why the Turtle is not denouncing. Spoiler. The Turtle was the (only?) winner from the past four years, and will probably happily wait for the next populist to take over once the orange one is gone.

 

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

In a courtroom in NY, when he claims to have immunity.

Anyway, I didn't come here for (more or less) witty one liners.

No, I came here to share an oped from Der Spiegel. Thought it's itneresting, because it tackles that Personalty Cult myth. @Tywin et al. (among others) is pushing. And why the Turtle is not denouncing. Spoiler. The Turtle was the (only?) winner from the past four years, and will probably happily wait for the next populist to take over once the orange one is gone.

 

No doubt Moscow Mitch won the last four years. Trump only has two real achievements, one being terrible (the tax cuts) and the other being super important to conservatives, but was literally done without Trump needing to do a single thing (judicial appointments).

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Count Mary Trump as one person that does not think Donald will run again:

 

I think she is probably correct because of her first reason, that Trump won't really put himself in a position where he might lose again. Though his calculations on that may partly depend on how popular Biden's administration is come 2023. 

I don't know what she means though that he "would have to play a secondary role".  If he is able to take over the machinery of the Republican party, he wouldn't be secondary within the party or within his followers. 

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4 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I think she is probably correct because of her first reason, that Trump won't really put himself in a position where he might lose again. Though his calculations on that may partly depend on how popular Biden's administration is come 2023. 

I don't know what she means though that he "would have to play a secondary role".  If he is able to take over the machinery of the Republican party, he wouldn't be secondary within the party or within his followers. 

I largely agree with what she said too.

I think on the second part, she means, having to support other Republicans get elected?  I think that won't stop him from running though, but I could see him not wanting to rally for other people.

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4 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

More like the Lost Cause. Surely Nunes and Lindsey Graham will get statues?

Nunes is one of the folks I think will face federal charges, if anyone does (assuming Trump doesn't blanket pardon absolutely everyone). Most elected Republicans are opportunistic scum that are happily destroying the country for personal gain; but there's no way to charge that. Nunes I truly believe is an FSB asset.

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Again, looking at narcissist behaviors is very useful in predicting what will happen next. Here's a good primer. Some descriptions of what is going on now:

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The narcissist goes into a schizoid mode: he isolates himself, a hermit in the kingdom of his hurt. He minimises his social interactions and uses "messengers" to communicate with the outside. Devoid of energy, the narcissist can no longer pretend to succumb to social conventions. His former compliance gives way to open withdrawal (a rebellion of sorts). Smiles are transformed to frowns, courtesy becomes rudeness, emphasised etiquette used as a weapon, an outlet of aggression, an act of violence.

The narcissist, blinded by pain, seeks to restore his balance, to take another sip of the narcissistic nectar. In this quest, the narcissist turns both to and upon those nearest to him. His real attitude emerges: for him, his nearest and dearest are nothing are but tools, one-dimensional instruments of gratification, Sources of Supply or pimps of such supply, catering to his narcissistic lusts.

Having failed to procure for him his "drug' (Narcissistic Supply), the narcissist regards friends, colleagues, and even family members as dysfunctional, frustrating objects. In his wrath, he tries to mend them by forcing them to perform again, to function.

And what we fear might happen later:

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These theories of conspiracy account for the decrease in Narcissistic Supply. The narcissist then - frightened, in pain, and in despair - embarks upon an orgy of self-destruction intended to generate "alternative Supply Sources" (attention) at any cost. The narcissist is poised to commit the ultimate narcissistic act: self-destruction in the service of self-aggrandisement.

 

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As to what this indicates to me: it depends on how much adoration Trump gets in the seeking of being a POTUS again. If he identifies that as a great source of attention, he will seek it out like a junkie. He will not be able to avoid it. Even though he knows that it might cause him pain, his need for adoration and attention is so high that he won't be able to help himself. He might not be successful in it, but that'll cause him to be even more erratic and bombastic, constantly pushing on those attention-seeking buttons to attempt to get more of a fix. 

To be really clear, Trump isn't going to act rationally on decisions like this, at least based on rationale (like possible success) that we would measure. He's going to act first and foremost to give him what he needs the most.

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2 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

As to what this indicates to me: it depends on how much adoration Trump gets in the seeking of being a POTUS again. If he identifies that as a great source of attention, he will seek it out like a junkie. He will not be able to avoid it. Even though he knows that it might cause him pain, his need for adoration and attention is so high that he won't be able to help himself. He might not be successful in it, but that'll cause him to be even more erratic and bombastic, constantly pushing on those attention-seeking buttons to attempt to get more of a fix. 

To be really clear, Trump isn't going to act rationally on decisions like this, at least based on rationale (like possible success) that we would measure. He's going to act first and foremost to give him what he needs the most.

I think it depends on a variety of factors.  If Trump can keep holding rallies and getting people to come out and see him without having to run for Potus, he won't.  He will flirt with it, he will get people to beg him too, but if he can keep people adoring him and not put himself at the risk of losing I think that is the path he will walk.  

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1 minute ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I think it depends on a variety of factors.  If Trump can keep holding rallies and getting people to come out and see him without having to run for Potus, he won't.  He will flirt with it, he will get people to beg him too, but if he can keep people adoring him and not put himself at the risk of losing I think that is the path he will walk.  

That's possible - but I suspect the rallies are always going to be a 'will he or won't he' type of thing. Like he'd announce that he'll have a bunch of rallies and at one of them he'll announce if he is or isn't running again, so you're going to just have to come out and show up and see (and cover it via press). 

But ultimately I think he knows that he doesn't get the attention without the campaigning. He won't be covered on national news and won't get the millions of people and the flags and truck rallies if he's not running. Him just, ya know, talking at people or having his own news organization isn't going to give him that rush again. 

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Trump just needs some shitty tv slot, they can call it something ridiculous like The Presidential Hour and he can rant and rave like Limbaugh and Hannity and have caller sand guests kiss his ass.  Will keep him busy and out of the way.  He'd still be annoying but his audience for this shit has been there for 40 years and they aren't going away anytime soon 

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In other news, WaPo reports that about 130 of the Secret Service is being quarantined after contracting COVID or being in close contact with others who have. That's about 10% of their entire force, the primary driver is them being at the various superspreader Trump rallies. I cant imagine many of them would relish the opportunity of dragging the narcissist in chief out of the residence come January 20, 2021.

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10 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Trump just needs some shitty tv slot, they can call it something ridiculous like The Presidential Hour and he can rant and rave like Limbaugh and Hannity and have caller sand guests kiss his ass.  Will keep him busy and out of the way.  He'd still be annoying but his audience for this shit has been there for 40 years and they aren't going away anytime soon 

Yep, this is the most obvious answer. He’s either going to launch his own network or essentially take over Fox or OANN and get his own show. I think he’ll try to get a subscription network myself, because he’s always here to grift clueless idiots.

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