Might Aegon become George's Richard III?

[Lord Varys]

George really likes Richard III.

Both Tyrion and Stannis are in part based on or have parallels to that guy.

Yet the character whose plot narrative might be rather reminicent of Richard's final years is actually Prince Aegon. Richard only showed his true colors with the coup ... prior to that he was known as an honorable and loyal supporter of his brother. Aegon, like Richard, might seize the throne due to decisive action and boldness in a moment of crisis. Like Richard III was crippled and struck by personal tragedy (deaths of his son and wife) Aegon might face a major crisis in the Jon Connington/greyscale department. Like Richard, Aegon is not likely to be be ascendant for very long ... and like Richard he might be slain in battle.

But the most interesting parallel, I think, could be how he comes into power.

Renly and Ned - who could also have pulled a Richard III back in AGoT - failed 'usurping the throne' and dealing with Elizabeth Woodville Cersei and the other Woodvilles Lannisters the way Richard III we don't have this 'Princes in the Tower' plot so in ASoIaF ... despite the fact that this is actually the kind of plot device we could expect and might see in ASoIaF at some point.

But Tommen and Myrcella are still around and they are still children, meaning they could go down like the Princes in the Tower ... and that is actually a plot I expect to see a version of in ASoIaF. It is one of the core parts of the Wars of the Roses story and I'd be surprised if George did completely ignore this plot point when he is going to kill some more royal children.

So does anybody expect that Aegon/his administration end up seizing the throne by means of either openly or clandestinely murdering Tommen and/or Myrcella?

And I put the idea of an Aegon-Myrcella marriage on the table ... which, it happens, would also mimic, in a sense, Richard's alleged plans to marry his niece Elizabeth ... sister of the Princes in the Tower. An idea that might look very obscene if Aegon had Tommen murdered only to then marry Myrcella to strengthen his own claim and neutralize Myrcella's.

The final interesting parallel would be Aegon's eventual downfall. Henry Tudor (who I'd parallel with Daenerys in this scenario) ended up being able to not only rally the remaining Lancastrian loyalists to his side but he was also able to gain the support of the remaining Woodville and some other Yorkists loyal to Edward IV but not Richard III.

Thus Aegon might mar his own reign by the way he seizes the throne, leading his enemies - even those, like the Lannisters and Tyrells, who are now firmly in an anti-Targaryen camp - to side with Daenerys following the 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' routine.

Of course there is also Euron to consider, but he, if he ended up siding with Cersei and the Lannisters, could serve in a sort of Henry Tudor-like role if he ended up being able to rally the anti-Targaryen faction to his cause.

[Nathan Stark]

That's definately one way things could go south for Aegon. I tend to think that Aegon himself is a red-herring designed to entice Dany into going to Westeros. Ultimately Euron will be the main human antagonist going forward.

[SeanF]

I think that Jon Con and/or the Sand Snakes will murder Tommen, at least.  Perhaps Myrcella, as well.

I could see that causing Arianne Martell a real crisis of conscience. And if fAeon is king at that point, I could see it doing immense damage to his regime, even if the never gave the orders. 

[Aldarion]

Yep. I don't think Aegon will be directly responsible for it, but Jon Connington himself is clearly developing into person capable of doing so. He is deliberately trying to become Tywin Lannister, and well, we know what happened with Tywin and Robert's rise to power...

[Back door hodor]

I actually think marriage to Myrcela, and her claim in general,is a very possible major plot point going forward(in fact we have already seen it start with Arriannes failed coup attempt.). Myrcella is (on paper) the great granddaughter of a Targaryen princess, Dani calls Bobby B Usurper, and while this is technically true it ignores the fact that Jon Arryn was both the first Lord to call his banners against Arys, and the de facto head of the Rebellion being Ned and Robert's foster parent, and the fact that after the rebellion Robert was next in line after Viserys and Dani, who technically fled the realm.

Myrcela had a legit claim on her own, and while the twincest is hard to prove,(short of catching them in the act.) Its literally impossible to prove that Robert is not Myrcela's father, if it fits someone's agenda to claim Mycela as legitimate, they will. If it fits someone's agenda to declare her a bastard and product of incest, than someone will do that too.(possibly  both will happen.

Sorry long Tangent, back to Richard III, I also agree with you that I could be Aegon and not Dani who takes power and pulls an Aerys, but predicting the political fallout of that is hard without knowing when it happens(in relation to Dani's invasion for example, what happens if she bypasses Blackwater Bay and lands her army in the reach? Say she takes oldtown while Aegon takes Kings landing?) 

So yes I see elements of the Richard III story being used in our story, Aegon is a good choice but not the only choice.

Edit: We are actually kinda seeing the princess in the tower plot play out in the North currently, with Ramsy and Jeyne Pool( fake Arya Stark), for example.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Yep. I don't think Aegon will be directly responsible for it, but Jon Connington himself is clearly developing into person capable of doing so. He is deliberately trying to become Tywin Lannister, and well, we know what happened with Tywin and Robert's rise to power...

That would then be Aegon as George's head canon Richard III - because he seems to be among those people who assume the guy didn't murder his nephews. But if his people do it with or without his knowledge he will be blamed for it. Especially if he doesn't punish whoever did it accordingly.

But thinking about the scenario it might also get ugly if Margaery were to end up as Aegon's prisoner. If she were to die under Aegon's watch, too - like Queen Helaena died while Rhaenyra's prisoner - then this could also mark an anti-Aegon uprising in the city and elsewhere considering Margaery Tyrell is fucking popular with the Kingslanders.

Not many people seem to consider that this might happen to Margaery ... but if she were to get survive her trial and not leave the city then chances wouldn't be bad that she ends up in Aegon's power if he takes the Iron Throne (the rationale behind that could be that they intend to marry her to the fourth king ... although they miscalculate there if Aegon-Arianne were to effectively hook up before Aegon gets to KL). And regardless whether Mace survives the battles or not - Margaery Tyrell would make a pretty decent hostage to encourage her father/brother(s) to either not continue to resist Aegon or to even declare for him.

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

I think that Jon Con and/or the Sand Snakes will murder Tommen, at least.  Perhaps Myrcella, as well.

I could see that causing Arianne Martell a real crisis of conscience. And if fAeon is king at that point, I could see it doing immense damage to his regime, even if the never gave the orders. 

The Myrcella question greatly hinges on where she is ending up. If she makes it to KL then she could die/be captured with Tommen or she could flee with Cersei if the latter gets away. If the Golden Company captures her in the Stormlands, then we would have a scenario where Myrcella as Aegon's first wife and queen - who might eventually end like Queen Jaehaera with Jon Connington pulling an Unwin Peake - would be a more likely scenario.

It should be even more easy to push Tommen out if Aegon were to march against KL with Myrcella Baratheon as consort at his side.

And, yes, if somebody in camp Aegon were to murder Myrcella this would definitely drive Arianne crazy. Whoever commanded/did that would like face her wrath. Even if this would allow her to marry Aegon herself (in a scenario where Myrcella is wed to Aegon).

3 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

Sorry long Tangent, back to Richard III, I also agree with you that I could be Aegon and not Dani who takes power and pulls an Aerys, but predicting the political fallout of that is hard without knowing when it happens(in relation to Dani's invasion for example, what happens if she bypasses Blackwater Bay and lands her army in the reach? Say she takes oldtown while Aegon takes Kings landing?) 

So yes I see elements of the Richard III story being used in our story, Aegon is a good choice but not the only choice.

Sure, but only Aegon seems to be the guy who is pretty likely to deal with royal children in a Richard III-like manner. The only other royal children around are Bran and Rickon (in a sense) and Jon Snow is not likely to pull a Richard III on them.

And the other rather crucial parallel there is the fact that Aegon's chances are pretty good to die in battle, just as his power base - while nominally strong if we assume that there are Targaryen fanboys everywhere - is not unlikely to be rather weak. He claims to be a dead prince, meaning the argument you made about the impossibility of (dis)proving parentage for Myrcella is doubly true for Aegon. He cannot really prove he is Rhaegar's son. And if things look bad for him people will start to tell each other that they had known he was a fake dragon all along.

Aegon's true power base should be very slim, because of the fact that he invaded Westeros with a bunch of sellswords (which is not going to make him everybody's best friend even if they continue to behave), because many regions are already ravaged by war (especially the traditionally rather Targaryen-friendly Riverlands), and because his main allies are most likely going to be the Dornishmen.

And there is another big parallel to Richard III. His power base was in the north of England, in no small part because he was married to Anne Neville. If Aegon is going to owe his success in no small part to the Dornishmen - and if he ends up making Arianne his queen - then the Dornish will demand rewards and favors and a share in the government of the Realm. But the Dornishmen are not exactly all that popular outside Dorne. This kind of thing could really reduce Aegon's popularity with other crucial Targaryen-friendly people.

Meaning that (huge parts of) the Reach and the Riverlands - not to mention the West - could end up in either team Dany or team Euron when Aegon has to defend his throne. And then he might die in battle like Richard III.

3 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

Edit: We are actually kinda seeing the princess in the tower plot play out in the North currently, with Ramsy and Jeyne Pool( fake Arya Stark), for example.

There is a small parallel there, but this is more a forced marriage kind of plot than the 'uncle/other relative steals the throne of his young relatives, locks them up, and has them murdered'.

And thinking about it - if Aegon were the guy to capture Tommen/Myrcella alive he would also pull a Richard III in the sense that he would finally do what nobody else did before ... declare them bastards, like Richard III did with his brother's sons.

[Aldarion]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is a small parallel there, but this is more a forced marriage kind of plot than the 'uncle/other relative steals the throne of his young relatives, locks them up, and has them murdered'.

And thinking about it - if Aegon were the guy to capture Tommen/Myrcella alive he would also pull a Richard III in the sense that he would finally do what nobody else did before ... declare them bastards, like Richard III did with his brother's sons.

Just a note, but Stannis actually did that already. In fact, he works far better as a Richard III parallel, seeing how he is Robert's brother, and actual rebel against the throne as opposed to a foreign invader. That being said, George does mix-and-match things, so while Aegon is certainly not a Richard III parallel, there might be some parallels involved.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Just a note, but Stannis actually did that already. In fact, he works far better as a Richard III parallel, seeing how he is Robert's brother, and actual rebel against the throne as opposed to a foreign invader. That being said, George does mix-and-match things, so while Aegon is certainly not a Richard III parallel, there might be some parallels involved.

Of course, Aegon cannot be the evil uncle. Those are, basically, Stannis and Renly and to a lesser degree even Ned who also tried to pull half a Richard III there ... especially if we assume for a more poor Dickie also truly believed his brother's children were legally bastards.

I meant that a King Aegon VI on the Iron Throne - in accordance with the High Septon and the Faith and, presumably, a majority of the lords of the Realm - publicly declare and decree that Robert's children aren't his. Richard III called a Parliament to do that - there is no equivalent in Westeros, of course, but Stannis never had the power and authority and popularity to convince anyone that this was true.

I think that if Aegon does that people will believe it ... and then the children might no longer be viewed as royal children/monarchs even by people sworn to Casterly Rock. But things could change again quickly enough, if they are also (brutally) murdered.

Stannis may have been able to convince people if he had won at the Blackwater - just as Ned may have if his coup had worked. But Aegon might be the one succeeding at it because he might simply only do it after he has captured Tommen/Myrcella as well as the Iron Throne and all the power and authority that will give him.

And I tried to illustrate what parallels I see - Stannis clearly has the evil uncle parallel there as well the fact that he is effectively a failed or would-be Richard III. The best parallel towards the evil uncle thing is the song about Stannis at Joff's wedding feast. That's really priceless.

[Mithras]

The only thing Aegon will become is the male claimant in the new version of the Dance of the Dragons. He doesn't have anything to do with Richard III.

And the idea of a Myrcella-fAegon marriage didn't get any less ridiculous over the past decade.