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Mance Rayder and Jon Snow violated guest rights


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12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Ramsay hadn't written the letter Jon would have revealed that in ADwD - the man did receive letters from Ramsay before and knows his handwriting - the huge, spikey hand. The handwriting isn't mentioned in the chapter, true, but it would have been mentioned if it had been different.

Roose had Ramsay write letters before - to Jon and Asha - meaning it is not unusual for him to use Ramsay for that job again. Especially since the entire purpose of the letter is to manipulate Jon into doing something stupid ... and it works perfectly: Jon gets himself killed. And part of the reason why it works is that one bastard goads another into doing things. Which is the reason why Ramsay was chosen to write this letter.

The idea that the point of the letter is to actually get what Ramsay demanded isn't very likely. It is way to stab at Stannis' allies at Castle Black and cause trouble there without actually being there.

We don't even know whether Mance can write - not very likely considering his background - nor is it conceivable that he had access to a raven sending letters to Castle Black. And while Mance isn't stupid there is just no way that he would send as shitty a message as the Pink Letter to Jon Snow. That's completely outrageous as an idea.

Stannis would also not doing something like that. Stannis might fake his death - as he lays out in Theon 1 - to deceive his enemies, but he wouldn't do it to deceive his allies. Massey might hear that Stannis is dead ... but not from Stannis or Stannis' people but his enemies. Just as Jon Snow did when he received Ramsay's letter.

It's pointless to get into further explanations and suggestions. Here's what we know about the pink letter and why someone might not have been the one wrote it.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bastard_Letter/Theories

Plus, this would require Stannis being defeated, which we might doubt if we assume the plot requires him alive or not.

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6 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

It's pointless to get into further explanations and suggestions. Here's what we know about the pink letter and why someone might not have been the one wrote it.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bastard_Letter/Theories

Plus, this would require Stannis being defeated, which we might doubt if we assume the plot requires him alive or not.

There isn't really any need to consider the possibility that the letter wasn't written by Ramsay since nothing actually indicates it might not have been written by him.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, anyone doubting that Ramsay wrote the letter is entering complete crackpot territory.

Then for the first time in AFOIAF history, call me a god damn crackpot. Or just admit that's a completely absurd statement since there's a legitimate 4-5 options even the wikis hows. Ramsay's definitely a strong possibility but we don't even know how well he can read / write. We just know that he's sent letters to castles.

And re the weather, yes that's exactly how it works. Wind blowing in west from the ocean goes up an over the mountains and comes down even colder. You're basically looking Canada and the Plains states in the US for a context point.

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17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is really no need to assume Mance suspects 'Arya' may be a fake. He goes through great lengths to get 'Arya' out and if he was wondering he could and would have forced Theon to tell him the truth. In fact, if he was suspecting something asking Theon about the true identity of Ramsay's bride would have been a crucial part of his talks with Theon, possibly his first question to him.

There's certainly "no need" but it's an interesting thought in my opinion at least.  I know there are certainly a lot of people who have theorized before that Mance knows Arya is fake- it just doesn't matter to Mance's overall plans whether she is or not.  As you yourself said, taking "Arya" away harms the Boltons.

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Of course, Jon the character is confused when Alys shows up and it turns out that what Mel was rambling on about had, seemingly, nothing to do with Arya. And he is subsequently irritated and pissed since he doesn't really understand whether Mel fucked with him or not. Did she really persuade Jon to let Mance loose to save Arya ... or did she manipulate Jon to unleash Mance for some other nefarious purpose Jon Snow has no clue about?

That is the main reason Jon doesn't trust Mel after that and keeps her at arm's length despite the fact that she told him about the skulls prophecy and his scheming friends, etc.

In that sense, Jon's issue is not so much about what was Mance supposed to do but rather: Was Mance actually supposed to do what they agreed he would do? Or did they play him.

 

To me these are one and the same at least as far as Jon is concerned.  As I mentioned either Mel and Mance had separate plans or Mance is freelancing on his own.  Either way I do not think Jon was remotely privy to a Winterfell infiltration or Jon would not wonder where Mance was when Alys showed up.  Jon specifically thinks to himself "a grey girl on a dying horse.  Melisandre's fires had not lied, it would seem.  But what had become of Mance Rayder and his spearwives?"  This is right after he hears "Arya" is now at the Wall before figuring out it was actually Alys Karstark.

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But it isn't really clear what the plan/mission Mance was given by Jon did or did not entail since the chapter ends before the conversation is over, before Mance picks his women and Jon finally signs off on him leaving Castle Black. Those decisions have yet to be made at the end of the chapter.

I guess George completely rewriting many of Jon's chapters of that book sort of confused things there. I'd also expect that originally Mel's chapter was from Jon's POV.

The context there clearly is that the certain ploy is about the mission Mel and Jon are about to give to Mance. Where things get confusing on the part of the reader is if we presuppose that Jon just thought Mance would definitely just pick up Arya on the road. Then we talk Jon the Moron or Jon the Demented because, as you say, he would have to have completely forgotten the women and the talk about the certain ploy.

But his mandate must have been much broader or else he would have (1) never asked for the women because their purpose is clearly just to get him inside Winterfell in the Abel-and-washerwomen disguise, and (2) Jon Snow would have never just given those women to Mance if Mance hadn't explained or hinted at for what he would need them - hinted at in a more concrete manner than we see in the Mel chapter.

 

Look, it may be as simple as the rewrites, etc. by GRRM just messed everything up here and he never bothered to fix it.  It certainly seems that way to me the more I think about it since none of it really makes much sense.  Reading Jon's thoughts after Alys shows up and wondering where Mance is multiple times, I think the context is clearly that Jon was lied to and truly thought Mance was only showing up to Longlake to pick up Arya.  Which makes Jon seem completely idiotic since he supplies him with spearwives and does not seem to remotely register/question Mance's talk of a "certain ploy."

I take it that Jon was sold the spearwives line as a way to help gain Arya's trust.  Which makes a bit of sense as I don't think a little girl like Arya would be remotely trustful of a solo man like Mance coming to help her on his own.  I think we are supposed to think that Jon would not send his own brothers here for the same reason he won't ask them to come to Winterfell with him right before he's stabbed, etc.  He doesn't want them involved and he doesn't want it traced back to the Night's Watch.

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A lot of people argue against this because they do not want Jon to be complicit or approving of Mance's mission inside Winterfell ... but if we think about in detail it would make no sense for him to restrict Mance to a strict 'Just pick up my sister if you chance upon her on the road' directive.

As I said - for such a mission alone he would not need Rattleshirt-Mance. It could be anyone at the Wall, a black brother, Jon himself, even Melisandre if she could be persuaded to go. Waiting for somebody on the road isn't a big deal. Instead, the implication in the entire Mance plan is that Mance provides Jon Snow with a means to get his sister back from the Boltons without him actively showing his hands. It may be that they just pick up Arya on the road ... but that things go this way isn't a guarantee. And if Mance thinks as much in the Mel chapter - and he does think that! - then Jon Snow cannot be stupid enough to not also think that.

But I concede that the way it is written is confusing.

 

Yeah I mean I just answered this above but Jon does not want his brothers involved in this since he knows it means some problems with the Boltons.  I'd say the way it is written is definitely confusing, and I think the only way to truly read it is Jon was willfully ignorant or outright stupid of what Mance was planning.  It's the only way to make any sense of Jon's constant thoughts after the fact of "where Mance is?" and "whether Mel lied to him".  

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Let's say Mance and his women go down the Kingsroad, operating under the assumption a fleeing Arya on a horse would stick to that road exclusively because it is the fastest way to the Wall ... but they do not find Arya. Instead they learn from the folks they meet on the road that Arya Stark is still at Winterfell and about to be married to Ramsay Bolton.

What should they do in that scenario? One imagines, that Jon either implicitly or explicitly told Mance to save Arya Stark, no matter what. That's the mission, and that's what Mance did.

The vision of the girl on the dying horse could still become true if it had been 'Arya' (but she wasn't!) if, say, the gang is pursued after 'Arya' is out of Winterfell and Mance and the women send her ahead and stay behind in attempt to kill or slow down the Bolton hunters.

In that sense, Jon's crucial issue is that it turned out that the girl on the dying horse turned out to be Alys Karstark and not Arya Stark ... and his conclusion is Melisandre is at best incompetent in the prophecy department ... and at the worst she uses prophecy talk to manipulate him.

In fact, if we think about the fact that Jeyne Poole isn't Arya we can reasonably conclude that Jon would also be pissed - outraged even! - if Mance had brought back an 'Arya' that turned out to be Jeyne. He would certainly be glad that Jeyne was safe, I guess, but he would have *never* showed his true colors with the Boltons over Jeyne Poole the way he did while he thought she was Arya.

 

I don't imagine Jon remotely authorized a Winterfell mission.  That's a whole different level of provocation of the Boltons.  If Jon did anything but authorize Mance to go to Longlake and rescue Alys, we would not have multiple instances of Jon wondering where Mance is after Alys shows up.  Even if it was Jeyne who showed up I don't think that changes much for Jon.  As we saw with Alys Jon is a kind-hearted chivalrous person, he would try and protect her just the same.

Either way, Jon clearly thinks the grey girl on a dying horse was referring to what ended up being Alys, and this is why he is confused about Mance and his whereabouts once she shows up.  There is never once any reference or thought by Jon to "a certain ploy" that he authorized Mance to carry out.  Instead it's the opposite.  

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7 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Then for the first time in AFOIAF history, call me a god damn crackpot. Or just admit that's a completely absurd statement since there's a legitimate 4-5 options even the wikis hows. Ramsay's definitely a strong possibility but we don't even know how well he can read / write. We just know that he's sent letters to castles.

The wiki informs about theories people made, it isn't an authority on what's a valid theory. The mystery around the Pink Letter is what actually happened at Winterfell and with Stannis, not who wrote the letter. It is pretty obvious who wrote the letter.

And of course we know that Ramsay can write. He wrote a letter to Asha and another letter to Jon before the Pink Letter arrived. The idea that some maester wrote a letter in blood and enclosed 'pieces of prince' is just gross.

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And re the weather, yes that's exactly how it works. Wind blowing in west from the ocean goes up an over the mountains and comes down even colder. You're basically looking Canada and the Plains states in the US for a context point.

I'm not sure we can drag real world meteorology into a fantasy setting. But even if we did - there is no reason to assume the snowstorm is widespread. It could be ... or not. My point simply was that with us not knowing when exactly the Pink Letter was written, Jeyne and Tycho might turn up at Castle Black half an hour after the assassination.

7 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

There's certainly "no need" but it's an interesting thought in my opinion at least.  I know there are certainly a lot of people who have theorized before that Mance knows Arya is fake- it just doesn't matter to Mance's overall plans whether she is or not.  As you yourself said, taking "Arya" away harms the Boltons.

Mance doesn't seem to have any plans of his own. He does what Melisandre and Jon tell him, basically. The entire point of his mission is to please Jon Snow by saving his sister.

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To me these are one and the same at least as far as Jon is concerned.  As I mentioned either Mel and Mance had separate plans or Mance is freelancing on his own.  Either way I do not think Jon was remotely privy to a Winterfell infiltration or Jon would not wonder where Mance was when Alys showed up.  Jon specifically thinks to himself "a grey girl on a dying horse.  Melisandre's fires had not lied, it would seem.  But what had become of Mance Rayder and his spearwives?"  This is right after he hears "Arya" is now at the Wall before figuring out it was actually Alys Karstark.

If Mance was sent down south not to save Arya as Jon was told ... then Mance and his women could be anywhere. If Jon was betrayed by Mel and Mance then he has no reason to believe Mance ever tried to find Arya because Melisandre may have known that the girl on the dying horse wasn't Arya but Alys.

Jon doesn't know what Melisandre knew or didn't know and that's why he doesn't trust her afterwards.

In that sense, we can go with Jon being confused about Mance's whereabouts because he no longer thinks Mance ever tried to find the girl on the dying horse.

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Look, it may be as simple as the rewrites, etc. by GRRM just messed everything up here and he never bothered to fix it.  It certainly seems that way to me the more I think about it since none of it really makes much sense.  Reading Jon's thoughts after Alys shows up and wondering where Mance is multiple times, I think the context is clearly that Jon was lied to and truly thought Mance was only showing up to Longlake to pick up Arya.  Which makes Jon seem completely idiotic since he supplies him with spearwives and does not seem to remotely register/question Mance's talk of a "certain ploy."

Exactly. I guess George may have originally written the chapter so that Jon was always signing off on a direct rescue mission with, perhaps, the Alys vision being a later addition, and originally it was just Mel revealing Mance was still alive and could infiltrate Winterfell for Jon to save Arya.

In such a setting both the women and the certain ploy do make sense ... for a scenario where Mance is just sent to pick up a girl on the road it makes no sense at all.

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I take it that Jon was sold the spearwives line as a way to help gain Arya's trust.  Which makes a bit of sense as I don't think a little girl like Arya would be remotely trustful of a solo man like Mance coming to help her on his own.  I think we are supposed to think that Jon would not send his own brothers here for the same reason he won't ask them to come to Winterfell with him right before he's stabbed, etc.  He doesn't want them involved and he doesn't want it traced back to the Night's Watch.

But he later goes down the Kingsroad to arrest Cregan Karstark, does he not? With the support of his black brothers.

There is also no reason to assume that Arya Stark would need special people to gain her trust if she is en route to the Wall where she would find a lot of men in black clothes. Instead, meeting men dressed like men of the NW should attract her because those are the men she is trying to reach.

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I don't imagine Jon remotely authorized a Winterfell mission.  That's a whole different level of provocation of the Boltons.  If Jon did anything but authorize Mance to go to Longlake and rescue Alys, we would not have multiple instances of Jon wondering where Mance is after Alys shows up.  Even if it was Jeyne who showed up I don't think that changes much for Jon.  As we saw with Alys Jon is a kind-hearted chivalrous person, he would try and protect her just the same.

I'm not so sure about that ... after all, he doesn't think that much about what he and Mel and Mance talked about after the end of the Mel chapter. And he thinks he has been betrayed/fooled by them when Alys shows up. Why should he believe Mance is in Winterfell when he no longer believes Mel and Mance were sincere in what they made him authorize?

I guess it is open to debate whether Jon explicitly commanded Mance to infiltrate Winterfell. But Mance wouldn't have gone to Winterfell if he wasn't determined to get Arya out of there ... and the only reason why he would be doing that is to please Jon.

This entire mission is for Jon's sake, to get him into team Mel/Stannis/Mance. A side effect is also that the Boltons would be weakened if they were to lose Arya, but Mance wouldn't sacrifice himself to accomplish that.

The idea that Mance could have an ulterior motive to infiltrate Winterfell is, so far, completely without textual basis. It is a very dangerous game and chances are not that bad that he actually sits in that cage Ramsay mentioned in the letter. I don't think he does, but it is a real possibility.

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Thinking a little bit more on the line about the women and the 'certain ploy' it is actually very confusing, irritating even that George has Mance say that in front of Jon Snow if he wanted to send the message that Mel/Mance do have another agenda down south or at Winterfell directly and a merely using the vision and the fact that Arya is in danger as a means to mess with Jon's head.

After all, those lines are said by Mance in front of Jon Snow in a Melisandre chapter. It would be the easiest thing in the world to have Mel and Mance discuss the women and the 'certain ploy' while Jon Snow wasn't in the room. He isn't the POV in that chapter! And Mance and Mel do talk among themselves earlier in that very chapter.

In that sense - if the author intended for the reader to be under the impression that Jon wasn't aware or couldn't figure out that Mance needed the women to infiltrate Winterfell and planned to do that ... then this just doesn't work all that well.

I'd go as far as saying that this is the second big plot flaw of ADwD - the other being Tyrion feeding Aegon the idea to go west instead of east at a point in the story when nobody intended to go east - only south to Volantis where Daenerys would show up either by ship or the demon road. The idea that they should/had to go east to Meereen came only up after the gang learned that Dany had decided to stay in Meereen.

This clearly is an inconsistency grown out of George moving things around - originally Tyrion's 'west instead of east' speech was given at the Golden Company meeting before George decided to cut Tyrion out of the scene entirely and rewrite the thing from Connington's POV.

It may be that something like that also happened with the Arya/Winterfell thing - but if so, we have no clues for that (the Aegon thing can be pieced together from George's NAB postings about the progress of ADwD before publication).

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15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There isn't really any need to consider the possibility that the letter wasn't written by Ramsay since nothing actually indicates it might not have been written by him.

Well, I'd like not to consider that a fact, as I see Mance being a possibility, along with Ramsay. But, of course, it's just me.

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7 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Well, I'd like not to consider that a fact, as I see Mance being a possibility, along with Ramsay. But, of course, it's just me.

For Mance to be a possibility we would have to first establish that the guy is literate - which isn't likely considering Cotter Pyke isn't, either, and he is a noble bastard from the Iron Islands - and how he could get access to a raven flying to Winterfell.

And then we'd have to ask about his motive to send as stupid a message to Jon as the Pink Letter - which is completely self-destructive.

Any theory arguing for Mance in this context has to go deep into whacko conspiracy theory territory - like presupposing Mance has a secret motive to deceive Jon Snow (which is ridiculous considering the entire point of his mission is to save Jon's sister) or that the Pink Letter is some kind of weirdo code which Jon allegedly understands - which is even more whacko.

In relation to the Pink Letter the only mystery is what contents are actually true ... and to a lesser extent who opened and read it before Jon. The pink wax sealing the letter is just a smear, indicating that Clydas may have opened the letter in advance to show it to Marsh. That could explain why Marsh and his co-conspirators were already ready to take out Jon throughout the chapter - Ghost is suspicious/agitated earlier, etc. Why guess would be that Marsh gave Jon one last chance after reading the Pink Letter - if he were to do what he did (declaring war on the Boltons with the help of the wildlings) - he would be killed.

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27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

For Mance to be a possibility we would have to first establish that the guy is literate - which isn't likely considering Cotter Pyke isn't, either, and he is a noble bastard from the Iron Islands - and how he could get access to a raven flying to Winterfell.

And then we'd have to ask about his motive to send as stupid a message to Jon as the Pink Letter - which is completely self-destructive.

Any theory arguing for Mance in this context has to go deep into whacko conspiracy theory territory - like presupposing Mance has a secret motive to deceive Jon Snow (which is ridiculous considering the entire point of his mission is to save Jon's sister) or that the Pink Letter is some kind of weirdo code which Jon allegedly understands - which is even more whacko.

In relation to the Pink Letter the only mystery is what contents are actually true ... and to a lesser extent who opened and read it before Jon. The pink wax sealing the letter is just a smear, indicating that Clydas may have opened the letter in advance to show it to Marsh. That could explain why Marsh and his co-conspirators were already ready to take out Jon throughout the chapter - Ghost is suspicious/agitated earlier, etc. Why guess would be that Marsh gave Jon one last chance after reading the Pink Letter - if he were to do what he did (declaring war on the Boltons with the help of the wildlings) - he would be killed.

I’m gonna go with the theory that the letter was written after the battle of the Crofters village. Either stannis lost terribly or winterfell thinks they have defeated stannis. This most likely prompted Ramsey into writing a rash letter. If Ramsey believes that stannis has been defeated than it makes sense that he would want to March against the bastard that helped stannis.

Too many years without a new book has made people delusional, and literally every possible theory has been explored at this point.

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10 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

I’m gonna go with the theory that the letter was written after the battle of the Crofters village. Either stannis lost terribly or winterfell thinks they have defeated stannis. This most likely prompted Ramsey into writing a rash letter. If Ramsey believes that stannis has been defeated than it makes sense that he would want to March against the bastard that helped stannis.

Too many years without a new book has made people delusional, and literally every possible theory has been explored at this point.

That is a possible scenario ... but it is just as likely that the Boltons were defeated by Stannis and are right now besieged at Winterfell and about to be killed. And the Pink Letter is just a last stab at their enemies ... an attempt to cause chaos at the Wall.

It is also possible the letter was written before Ramsay/the Boltons fought against Stannis at the village - Theon's theories about what the Boltons will do imply the Freys and Manderlys will only be the vanguard - and there is a good chance that the top priority for Roose and Ramsay after Theon's escape was not so much Stannis but rather to figure out what had happened and who was behind the Jeyne escape. If they cracked Mance/the women before a battle against Stannis took place, then the Pink Letter could have been written and sent before the Boltons and Stannis fought at the village.

Assuming such a battle actually takes place. If Stannis and the Manderlys take out the Freys together they could afterwards figure out a plan to take Winterfell before Roose or Ramsay even march against Stannis.

The only thing we know for sure is that Ramsay must have learned about Mance and the Arya plan from either Mance himself or some of his women. That's all. Everything else could be just Ramsay's lies. That Ramsay mentions Mel in the letter, for instance, could simply go back to Mance/the women confessing that Mel was the one who came up with the Arya plan and the one who faked Mance's death.

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On 4/10/2021 at 2:15 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Where not sure which of the spear wives murdered, but we do know that at least 2-3 are now dead (we Saw them die) and so that alone may be the punishment for that act. You could also consider that Jon did not order them to kill, it was something they simply chose to do. Finally there is the reality that Mance is a king, and not necessarily considered a member of the nights watch by any attentive gods. the Boltons themselves were in violation of guest rite during the red wedding, as were the freys- the primary two groups targeted in Winterfell. These are possibly mitigating factors that may release jon from breaking guest rite, but it could just as well be like you said.

Regardless of the fact, jon snow is stabbed not long after the this, and that could be the punishment for his violating guest rite.

They have indeed been punished.  There are mitigating factors.  I am not going to say at this time what their punishment should have been because they are dead already.  They have paid the highest price for their deeds.  Let the dead rest in peace.  They killed and were accomplices to murder. They were killed in turn and that is that.  

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