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US Politics - The Liar in Winter


Larry of the Lawn

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I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

But you're wrong, anyway. Think about this. Trump cannot get a halfway competent or sane Republican lawyer to argue his case. What makes you think he can find a Republican judge to rule in his favour?

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1 minute ago, mormont said:

I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

They can, but it gets unlikely and the tail-risks get real high. It'd need to be stuff like:

  • A general strike
  • Massive mobilization of protestors in the streets
  • Pressure campaigns on corporate leaders
  • Appeals to the military and secret service to get involved
  • Democratic states acknowledging Biden as President

Bring down Trump the way someone like Viktor Yanukovych was brought down. It's too early to try that kind of escalation now, but that's the kind of stuff Democratic leaders should be preparing for if Trump's coup moves forward.

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6 minutes ago, Fez said:

They can, but it gets unlikely and the tail-risks get real high. It'd need to be stuff like:

  • A general strike
  • Massive mobilization of protestors in the streets
  • Pressure campaigns on corporate leaders
  • Appeals to the military and secret service to get involved
  • Democratic states acknowledging Biden as President

Bring down Trump the way someone like Viktor Yanukovych was brought down. It's too early to try that kind of escalation now, but that's the kind of stuff Democratic leaders should be preparing for if Trump's coup moves forward.

In the event that Trump was actually getting close to completing his coup, I think the first three on that list would happen on a scale never before seen in this country.  No guarantee it would be enough (very hard to predict anything at that stage), but it would definitely be big. 

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I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that at least Giuliani and diGenova have been swimming in Russian plutocrat money for years. I know MAGA chuds still believe Russian collusion was a hoax, but surely some intelligence and national security people somewhere have to be at heightened attention when these ghouls are attempting a coup?

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Georgia will be certified today, and I think Michigan certification is Tuesday, so whatever shenanigans the WH is cooking up with the MI GoP legislature (if the latter is complicit) has to happen pretty quickly. I read somewhere that GoP legislatures are 'in control' of ~ 300 EC votes, but some of them have Dem governors. Getting some of them off the table (like Georgia) would further shrink Trump's chances to go the faithless elector route.

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2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Georgia will be certified today, and I think Michigan certification is Tuesday, so whatever shenanigans the WH is cooking up with the MI GoP legislature (if the latter is complicit) has to happen pretty quickly. I read somewhere that GoP legislatures are 'in control' of ~ 300 EC votes, but some of them have Dem governors. Getting some of them off the table (like Georgia) would further shrink Trump's chances to go the faithless elector route.

Indeed.  Trump has often benefited from situations where his refusal to respect norms gave him leverage.  He lost the 2018-19 shutdown fight for wall funding, and then just moved the money from defense funding and made Democrats fight through the court system to stop him (still waiting on a final ruling on that). 

But this is not a situation where time is on Trump's side.  Things are happening to make Biden President in January and Trump needs to stop those things from happening.  His court challenges have been universally rejected.  He's been reduced to pressuring people not to do their jobs and in fact go way out on a limb for a dubious rewards.  He needs to somehow cajole, threaten and bribe the state legislatures in (most likely path) MI, WI and AZ to ignore their statewide vote.  And he needs to do it very soon.

The fact that he is attempting it at all is very dangerous, but this is still a monumentally difficult political feat he is attempting.  And he's a pretty shitty politician when it comes down to it.  And even if he successfully bends those state legislatures to his will, that only sets up a new set of court fights over which electors are the "real" ones.  And at that point, the eyes of the nation will truly be on the courts, and things like general strikes, protests, etc will be happening. 

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39 minutes ago, mormont said:

I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

But you're wrong, anyway. Think about this. Trump cannot get a halfway competent or sane Republican lawyer to argue his case. What makes you think he can find a Republican judge to rule in his favour?

This is blinkered. If Trump is trying a coup, which he absolutely is no matter how much he's fumblefucking around at it, do you think he's going to listen to the courts? 

I'm not saying it's likely, but saying we shouldn't even prepare until it's *more likely* is just...I just don't even understand the logic there.

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25 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

In the event that Trump was actually getting close to completing his coup, I think the first three on that list would happen on a scale never before seen in this country.  No guarantee it would be enough (very hard to predict anything at that stage), but it would definitely be big. 

I think this is wildly optimistic; I think it would track pretty closely to the protests this summer - lots of people in the streets with broad support until moderates start tut-tutting about "messaging" and "tone". 

Besides, how many people are going to risk their jobs and losing their homes "in this economy", especially when McConnell has made clear those fucking losers can eat cake?

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Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Remember without Michigan (assuming Trump’s appeal to the Michigan Legislature works) Biden still has 290 Electoral votes.  For Trump’s hail mary to work he has to bring Biden below 270.  He’s not there and the EC meets 12/8

If he topples Michigan, it makes the next chain in the link easier to break.

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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

If he topples Michigan, it makes the next chain in the link easier to break.

I hope you are wrong.  That’s a tight Republican Majority in Michigan.  How disciplined is the Republican Caucus, will they move in lockstep to support Trump?

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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I think this is wildly optimistic; I think it would track pretty closely to the protests this summer - lots of people in the streets with broad support until moderates start tut-tutting about "messaging" and "tone". 

Besides, how many people are going to risk their jobs and losing their homes "in this economy", especially when McConnell has made clear those fucking losers can eat cake?

Possibly. But else do you want? The only step beyond that is a shooting war, which would make things really fucked.

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Just now, Fez said:

Possibly. But else do you want? The only step beyond that is a shooting war, which would make things really fucked.

Well, "descent into fascism" barely rates above a hot war in my book.

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6 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I think this is wildly optimistic; I think it would track pretty closely to the protests this summer - lots of people in the streets with broad support until moderates start tut-tutting about "messaging" and "tone".

You're the one saying that Democrats need to do something now.  What "material actions" can the Democrats take other than fighting them in court (they're doing that and winning), and being ready to take to the streets in an open strike if we need to? 

I think that an open strike now, prior to Trump making any actual progress towards subverting the election, would be premature, seeing how such a move would likely cost hundreds of lives from COVID spread.  But I can accept hundreds of Americans dying to prevent a coup being successful, as I would certainly be one of the people in the streets sharing those risks.  And I note, I wasn't at the protests in summer because of COVID. 

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I know exit polls could be bad—honestly I know they’d be worse this election with the majority of Trump voters 

With those caveats acknowledge exit polls are showing he did double his level of support among them even doing better than Romney.
https://www.metroweekly.com/2020/11/did-28-of-lgbtq-people-really-vote-for-donald-trump/

I still find the level of support a typical republican nominee could receive from the lgbt community weirdly high.

 

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

You're the one saying that Democrats need to do something now.  What "material actions" can the Democrats take other than fighting them in court (they're doing that and winning), and being ready to take to the streets in an open strike if we need to? 

I think that an open strike now, prior to Trump making any actual progress towards subverting the election, would be premature, seeing how such a move would likely cost hundreds of lives from COVID spread.  But I can accept hundreds of Americans dying to prevent a coup being successful, as I would certainly be one of the people in the streets sharing those risks.  And I note, I wasn't at the protests in summer because of COVID. 

I'm not talking about an open strike *right now*. 

Trump and the Republicans out there attempting this half-baked coup are at least out there telling their supporters what to expect. Democrats are telling their supporters "oh, everything's going to be fine, so keep sitting on your ass", which is at least consistent messaging for them.

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12 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Well, "descent into fascism" barely rates above a hot war in my book.

Fine. And if that's what it comes to, so be it. Certainly I'll be out in the streets for the protests if things reach that point, and I have not ever protested before.

But my point more is, if you think none of this will work, then the thing you should be doing is stockpiling ammo; instead of complaining that nothing else proposed would work.

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