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US Politics - The Liar in Winter


Larry of the Lawn

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6 minutes ago, Sci-2 said:

I still think that once Trump is out of government every 2024 Republican hopeful is going to try their level best to drag him down without getting caught directly in the defacing.

There are probably many of Trump's staff who will end up working for Cruz, Haley, etc. They may or may not have recordings of their own, given how easy it seems to get Trump or his staff on tape.

I don't understand this. This isn't like GWB where he was massively underwater and Obama absolutely obliterated the next election. He got 72 million votes and came within 67K votes in 3 states of becoming re-elected. This is absolutely unheard of popularity for a Republican since, well, Reagan. Furthermore, he's pushing the narrative that he isn't a loser, but instead he is a wronged person who had his presidency taken away from him. He has his highest approval rating since he got elected, too!

Why would people turn away that level of support? 

@DMC said something similar, that he's just going to go away and people are going to shun Trump, but with that level of electoral, political, and personal support I don't see it at all. 

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6 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

As long as those elected officials see that 72m+ number, they're not going to reject him, they're going to fear him.

While I mostly agree with you, I think fixating on the amount of votes Trump got (which is currently at 73.7) is the wrong way to look at it.  Any major party nominee is going to get lots and lots of votes, especially in a polarized environment.  The number to look at is right now he got 47.2% of the vote.  Now that may go down a bit, but it's about a full point more than the 46.1% of the vote he got in 2016.  The fact he actually boosted his support as a percentage of the electorate - and right now is exactly at the same vote share as Romney - in spite of his four years as president is the important thing.

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5 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

@DMC said something similar, that he's just going to go away and people are going to shun Trump, but with that level of electoral, political, and personal support I don't see it at all.

Yeah I said that in the event he got his ass kicked, which obviously he didn't.

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15 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

K.

I didn't either, and like Zorral I'd never block anybody.  If you're referring to the tweet you posted being reposted, it happens.

22 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

This is absolutely unheard of popularity for a Republican since, well, Reagan.

Well, no, it's objectively not.  Bush got 50.7% of the vote in 2004, a number Trump could never dream of achieving.

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I'm not sure where this should go exactly, but it does speak to our current state state of affairs:
 

Quote

Kyle Rittenhouse, the teen accused in the fatal shooting of two people in August during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, was released from custody after posting $2 million in bail, according to the county's sheriff's department.

Rittenhouse was released Friday afternoon after the $2 million was posted through his attorney, Kenosha County Sheriff's Department spokesman Sgt. David Wright told CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/us/kyle-rittenhouse-kenosha-shooting-bail-release/index.html

This is how nuts the right is getting. They literally were willing to donate $2m to a murder. 

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18 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, no, it's objectively not.  Bush got 50.7% of the vote in 2004, a number Trump could never dream of achieving.

I guess that's sort of true, but the level of turnout and engagement is pretty absurdly high. Rising tide lifts all boats and whatnot, but I know one of the common theories around these parts was that a large turnout would overwhelmingly help Dems, and that definitely doesn't appear to be the case. 

37 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I said that in the event he got his ass kicked, which obviously he didn't.

I'm pretty sure you said if he lost he'd be branded a loser and be ostracized, regardless of getting his ass kicked. I think you made the comparison to Romney. I think we're both in agreement that he's not going away like Romney did. 

 

43 minutes ago, DMC said:

While I mostly agree with you, I think fixating on the amount of votes Trump got (which is currently at 73.7) is the wrong way to look at it.  Any major party nominee is going to get lots and lots of votes, especially in a polarized environment.  The number to look at is right now he got 47.2% of the vote.  Now that may go down a bit, but it's about a full point more than the 46.1% of the vote he got in 2016.  The fact he actually boosted his support as a percentage of the electorate - and right now is exactly at the same vote share as Romney - in spite of his four years as president is the important thing.

Maybe? Again, I think that a lot of people were very shocked that high turnout would also mean a narrow Trump loss. In that respect vote share is a big deal but the bigger deal is vote share in a massive election. 

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1 minute ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

I guess that's sort of true, but the level of turnout and engagement is pretty absurdly high.

Yes, I agree, it's doubly impressive that he increased his percentage of the vote share while the turnout drastically increased as well - which ran counter to everybody's expectations.  (Including the GOP who have gone to extraordinary lengths to suppress such an increase in turnout for at least a generation!)

4 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

I'm pretty sure you said if he lost he'd be branded a loser and be ostracized, regardless of getting his ass kicked.

I'm not gonna waste my time going back and finding it, but I'm 100% sure that was always qualified on Trump losing "convincingly" or some such, basically by the 7-8 points he was expected to lose by.  I definitely was imagining the victory would include Biden winning FL and NC (although, ironically, not necessarily GA).  If you go back I know I said multiple times that in the event he lost in a similar manner to Clinton (I believe I specifically said within a couple hundred thousand votes in the EC) and was able to believably claim he was cheated, I agreed with you he'd be the clear frontrunner for 2024.  At least for now.

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Uh, yes I do. People were willing to donate so that his bail could be paid. 

My point is bail is collateral.  I don't know about the specifics about the donations, but what happens as long as he doesn't have to forfeit it?

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Donald Trump Jr. Has The Coronavirus
The president’s son has tested positive for COVID-19, according to multiple news organizations.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jr-positive-covid-19_n_5fb84a53c5b67493dd36753a

Quote

 

Donald Trump Jr. has the coronavirus, report both Bloomberg News and CNN.

The president’s son tested positive for the virus earlier this week, according to Bloomberg. He has been quarantining at a cabin since then, CNN reported. “He’s been completely asymptomatic so far” and is following medical guidelines, his spokesperson said in a statement. 

Several people surrounding President Donald Trump have gotten the virus since an election night party at the White House, including chief of staff Mark Meadows and Housing Secretary Ben Carson.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

My point is bail is collateral.  I don't know about the specifics about the donations, but what happens as long as he doesn't have to forfeit it?

I haven't seen many details, but my best guess is it would be returned to who paid it, so it depends if the donations were directly to him or a third party. I'm also not sure how various state laws would impact it. 

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