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US Politics - The Liar in Winter

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5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

On the State Legislature Coup thing... surely the State Legislatures have already determined the process of appointing electors via actual state-level laws, and as such appointing competing electors would require a change in State Law (which would run into Democratic Governor vetoes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania).

Basically, the coup would involve the State Legislatures literally ignoring their own laws, and deciding to act retrospectively. Which is a recipe for something very, very ugly.

Well, yes. There's a reason the word 'coup' keeps getting thrown about. There's nothing legal about any of it.

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2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Well, yes. There's a reason the word 'coup' keeps getting thrown about. There's nothing legal about any of it.

Oh, I realise that. I am just trying to determine whether there's enough of a figleaf for a Trump-influenced Supreme Court to get involved.

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Tucker Carlson: UFO's are totally a thing and everyone's lying about it, but THIS is one step too far!

Edited by Mindwalker

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I think Democrats need to quit talking about how improbable Trump's path to a coup is, and instead start talking about what material actions they're going to take to stop it if it starts looking more likely. 

People better start gaming out some tail-risk scenarios PDQ, because I, for one, am pretty fucking tired of being told how "improbable" it will be for Trump to win the primary, or get elected, or get re-elected, or whatever.

Democrats keep waiting for Trump to be forced to acknowledge reality, but I think that McConnell and Trump have proved that the U.S. has deliberately been built in such a way that if the only thing you care about is power, and you have enough of it, reality bends to your will, not the other way around. Somehow, we just always thought it was a really good idea to base all that power on nothing more than a gentlemen's agreement.

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I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

But you're wrong, anyway. Think about this. Trump cannot get a halfway competent or sane Republican lawyer to argue his case. What makes you think he can find a Republican judge to rule in his favour?

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1 minute ago, mormont said:

I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

They can, but it gets unlikely and the tail-risks get real high. It'd need to be stuff like:

  • A general strike
  • Massive mobilization of protestors in the streets
  • Pressure campaigns on corporate leaders
  • Appeals to the military and secret service to get involved
  • Democratic states acknowledging Biden as President

Bring down Trump the way someone like Viktor Yanukovych was brought down. It's too early to try that kind of escalation now, but that's the kind of stuff Democratic leaders should be preparing for if Trump's coup moves forward.

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6 minutes ago, Fez said:

They can, but it gets unlikely and the tail-risks get real high. It'd need to be stuff like:

  • A general strike
  • Massive mobilization of protestors in the streets
  • Pressure campaigns on corporate leaders
  • Appeals to the military and secret service to get involved
  • Democratic states acknowledging Biden as President

Bring down Trump the way someone like Viktor Yanukovych was brought down. It's too early to try that kind of escalation now, but that's the kind of stuff Democratic leaders should be preparing for if Trump's coup moves forward.

In the event that Trump was actually getting close to completing his coup, I think the first three on that list would happen on a scale never before seen in this country.  No guarantee it would be enough (very hard to predict anything at that stage), but it would definitely be big. 

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I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that at least Giuliani and diGenova have been swimming in Russian plutocrat money for years. I know MAGA chuds still believe Russian collusion was a hoax, but surely some intelligence and national security people somewhere have to be at heightened attention when these ghouls are attempting a coup?

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Georgia will be certified today, and I think Michigan certification is Tuesday, so whatever shenanigans the WH is cooking up with the MI GoP legislature (if the latter is complicit) has to happen pretty quickly. I read somewhere that GoP legislatures are 'in control' of ~ 300 EC votes, but some of them have Dem governors. Getting some of them off the table (like Georgia) would further shrink Trump's chances to go the faithless elector route.

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13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Senator Rick "I'm totally not a Lizard Person wearing human skin" Scott has tested positive.

Yesssssssssssss!

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2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Georgia will be certified today, and I think Michigan certification is Tuesday, so whatever shenanigans the WH is cooking up with the MI GoP legislature (if the latter is complicit) has to happen pretty quickly. I read somewhere that GoP legislatures are 'in control' of ~ 300 EC votes, but some of them have Dem governors. Getting some of them off the table (like Georgia) would further shrink Trump's chances to go the faithless elector route.

Indeed.  Trump has often benefited from situations where his refusal to respect norms gave him leverage.  He lost the 2018-19 shutdown fight for wall funding, and then just moved the money from defense funding and made Democrats fight through the court system to stop him (still waiting on a final ruling on that). 

But this is not a situation where time is on Trump's side.  Things are happening to make Biden President in January and Trump needs to stop those things from happening.  His court challenges have been universally rejected.  He's been reduced to pressuring people not to do their jobs and in fact go way out on a limb for a dubious rewards.  He needs to somehow cajole, threaten and bribe the state legislatures in (most likely path) MI, WI and AZ to ignore their statewide vote.  And he needs to do it very soon.

The fact that he is attempting it at all is very dangerous, but this is still a monumentally difficult political feat he is attempting.  And he's a pretty shitty politician when it comes down to it.  And even if he successfully bends those state legislatures to his will, that only sets up a new set of court fights over which electors are the "real" ones.  And at that point, the eyes of the nation will truly be on the courts, and things like general strikes, protests, etc will be happening. 

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39 minutes ago, mormont said:

I think that your argument defeats itself. If you're right, then Democrats can't stop Trump, and talking about how they'll try, simply lends his efforts more credibility and thus fuels them.

But you're wrong, anyway. Think about this. Trump cannot get a halfway competent or sane Republican lawyer to argue his case. What makes you think he can find a Republican judge to rule in his favour?

This is blinkered. If Trump is trying a coup, which he absolutely is no matter how much he's fumblefucking around at it, do you think he's going to listen to the courts? 

I'm not saying it's likely, but saying we shouldn't even prepare until it's *more likely* is just...I just don't even understand the logic there.

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Remember without Michigan (assuming Trump’s appeal to the Michigan Legislature works) Biden still has 290 Electoral votes.  For Trump’s hail mary to work he has to bring Biden below 270.  He’s not there and the EC meets 12/8

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25 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

In the event that Trump was actually getting close to completing his coup, I think the first three on that list would happen on a scale never before seen in this country.  No guarantee it would be enough (very hard to predict anything at that stage), but it would definitely be big. 

I think this is wildly optimistic; I think it would track pretty closely to the protests this summer - lots of people in the streets with broad support until moderates start tut-tutting about "messaging" and "tone". 

Besides, how many people are going to risk their jobs and losing their homes "in this economy", especially when McConnell has made clear those fucking losers can eat cake?

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Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Remember without Michigan (assuming Trump’s appeal to the Michigan Legislature works) Biden still has 290 Electoral votes.  For Trump’s hail mary to work he has to bring Biden below 270.  He’s not there and the EC meets 12/8

If he topples Michigan, it makes the next chain in the link easier to break.

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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

If he topples Michigan, it makes the next chain in the link easier to break.

I hope you are wrong.  That’s a tight Republican Majority in Michigan.  How disciplined is the Republican Caucus, will they move in lockstep to support Trump?

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I think this is wildly optimistic; I think it would track pretty closely to the protests this summer - lots of people in the streets with broad support until moderates start tut-tutting about "messaging" and "tone". 

Besides, how many people are going to risk their jobs and losing their homes "in this economy", especially when McConnell has made clear those fucking losers can eat cake?

Possibly. But else do you want? The only step beyond that is a shooting war, which would make things really fucked.

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