US Politics - And Now it Begins

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

I wouldn't even say that's cynical, just an honest appraisal of such a situation.

Another lesson in how norms =/= laws, and how preying on the former can null the latter. 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Another lesson in how norms =/= laws, and how preying on the former can null the latter. 

Well, what you're suggesting is very obviously against the law, not just norms.

[Darzin]

3 hours ago, GrimTuesday said:

That's kind of the thing, Democratic polices are popular. I'm going to keep trotting out the statistics of M4A, where an overwhelming number of American support it (or some version of it) and yet the Democrats still winge at supporting it.

Medicare for all is incredibly popular, but if you ask those people what they mean they say the option of having government insurance. The Bill that Bernie wrote is incredibly unpopular because it bans private insurance. It literally makes it illegal all you need to do to make it popular is take out the language banning private insurance. As of now, however, any honest reading of the bill and it's a lead weight with the American people.

I do agree with your foreign poilicy criticisms of Biden. He has the choice to make these appointments and he made them. Not that we should expect any different from Obama's VP. The only candidate who truly ran against American Empire was Tulsi Gabbard, and look at all the criticisms here for her having a friendly meeting with Assad and saying maybe we shouldn't overthrow his government. Not like Obama and both Clintons had friendly meetings with the Saudi's or anything and directly materially supported their government. 

Foreign policy is one aspect the president has a huge influence. Obama’s was not great and I don’t expect Biden’s to be either. Also the democrats are losing a bit of ground here Trump especially in 2016 framed himself as the peace candidate to many people. Both Biden and Clinton voted for the war in Iraq, which not only shows a huge lack of judgement, but also opens up a line of attack for newer rightwing politicians who weren’t there to make that choice.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, what you're suggesting is very obviously against the law, not just norms.

Is it? Because if this packed SC approved it, it is the law. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is it? Because if this packed SC approved it, it is the law. 

Any member of the SC not confirmed by the Senate is plainly violating the appointments clause.  The president unilaterally expanding the composition of the court without Congress passing a new law plainly violates existing statute.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Any member of the SC not confirmed by the Senate is plainly violating the appointments clause.  The president unilaterally expanding the composition of the court without Congress passing a new law plainly violates existing statute.

Welcome to the Kick Rocks, I Have Power section of legal theory.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Welcome to the Kick Rocks, I Have Power section of legal theory.

....Yeah, also known as The Dictator's Handguide to Faux-Legitimacy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

....Yeah, also known as The Dictator's Handguide to Faux-Legitimacy.

You might have the title for a good dark comedy in the making there. 

[SFDanny]

On the subject of norms, I'm not sure the right thing to do is to reestablish all the old ones. Particularly 60 votes needed for consideration of somethings before the Senate. Nor the tradition of limiting the SC to nine members. If the Democrats can win both Georgia seats, it would be asinine in my humble opinion to give the Republicans veto over much needed legislation through old norms they blew up, or to allow the court packing on the SC to stand. It would be time to wield the 50 - 50 vote majority the Vice President's tie breaking vote gives them to push through changes. Starting with DC statehood,  expanding the SC and the number of lower federal courts, reenactment of the VRA, National Police Reform, and many other things. If Warnock and Ossoff win, it is not a time for timidity and the resurrection of all the old Senate traditions the GOP trashed on their road to solidify minority rule. 

If you want dramatic changes, the first step is the runoff elections in Georgia. Contribute what you can.

[Ran]

It's all well and good, but that 50-50 majority will depend on Tester, Manchin, and Sinema, all three who have publicly stated their opposition to eliminating the filibuster.

Instead, consider retaining it but adjusting how it works, as Norm Ornstein suggested at The Atlantic back in September when he noted that even a 53-47 Democratic majority would find it difficult to remove the filibuster outright. This could satisfy the concerns of all three while making it possible to get significant legislation passed.

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

It's all well and good, but that 50-50 majority will depend on Tester, Manchin, and Synema, all three who have publicly stated their opposition to eliminating the filibuster.

Instead, consider retaining it but adjusting how it works, as Norm Ornstein suggested at The Atlantic back in September when he noted that even a 53-47 Democratic majority would find it difficult to remove the filibuster outright. This could satisfy the concerns of all three while making it possible to get significant legislation passed.

I really don't care if there needs to be such a compromise with reluctant senators, or they must be persuaded with the chair of their prized committee, or threats of primary opponents, are almost anything else that is legal to do, but the rules must change! Quaint notions of the glory days of the senate and its supposed gentlemanly ways have to be done away with after the manner of which McConnell and company have forced minority rule on this nation. There was no hesitation to steal three seats on the SCOTUS and give us a nightmare to deal with for generations. Nominations from a president who had his seat without the approval of the people of this country. The Democrats have to stand up for majority rule, and not be complicit in clear plans to undermine it. Of course none of that makes a difference if Warnock and Ossoff don't win. First things first.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

You know the thirst for celebrity love is high when you're repeatedly retweeting Randy Quaid's support....

[Larry of the Lawn]

I wonder when/if we're going to see any states actually doing quarantine / lockdowns again?  In NY cases are approaching new daily case rates comparable to mid March, I realize some of this is more extensive testing, and with the likelihood of any federal relief very low states are reluctant to fuck up their economies, but seems insane to keep restaurants and bars open , and can only imagine what the holiday retail surge will do for the spread post Thanksgiving.  

[Guy Kilmore]

9 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I wonder when/if we're going to see any states actually doing quarantine / lockdowns again?  In NY cases are approaching new daily case rates comparable to mid March, I realize some of this is more extensive testing, and with the likelihood of any federal relief very low states are reluctant to fuck up their economies, but seems insane to keep restaurants and bars open , and can only imagine what the holiday retail surge will do for the spread post Thanksgiving.  

Minnesota is just about there, we are on a four week lockdown, not quite as stringent as last time, but pretty close.

[kairparavel]

11 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I wonder when/if we're going to see any states actually doing quarantine / lockdowns again?  In NY cases are approaching new daily case rates comparable to mid March, I realize some of this is more extensive testing, and with the likelihood of any federal relief very low states are reluctant to fuck up their economies, but seems insane to keep restaurants and bars open , and can only imagine what the holiday retail surge will do for the spread post Thanksgiving.  

DC announced rollbacks yesterday  starting tomorrow, except for halving indoor capacity to 25%, which inexplicably starts on the 14th. 

Quote

The new restrictions include: 

The limit for outdoor gatherings has been reduced from 50 to 25 people. 

Indoor gatherings are now limited to 10 people, both within homes and elsewhere.

Restaurants may stay open until midnight, but alcohol sales and consumption must end at 10 p.m.

The number of people inside houses of worship has been reduced from 100 to 50 people, or down from 50% to 25% capacity, depending on which number is smaller. 

All indoor group exercise classes and all outdoor group classes with 25 or more people must be suspended. Individuals can still go workout solo in gyms.

The live entertainment pilot will be temporarily suspended.

Additionally, the maximum indoor capacity of restaurants will be reduced from 50% to 25%, effective Monday, Dec. 14, in order to give restaurants enough time to adjust, Bowser said.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/mayor-bowser-announces-new-covid-19-restrictions-in-dc/2484963/

No mention of financial help to all the people (re)affected by these changes like gym staff and hospitality workers. It's just such BS that this is how we are.

[DMC]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I really don't care if there needs to be such a compromise with reluctant senators, or they must be persuaded with the chair of their prized committee, or threats of primary opponents, are almost anything else that is legal to do, but the rules must change!

This may work for Sinema and Tester (I also think both may be pliable with carrots instead of sticks), but not Manchin.  Such pressure would lead him to break not bend - he'd simply switch parties.  I think it may be worthwhile to try to sell him on the rationale that eliminating the filibuster in cases of statehood is analogous to eliminating it for confirmation votes, and therefore not eliminating the legislative filibuster, but changing the composition of the court is definitely off the table.

[Maithanet]

With GA, MI, and PA now certified, there is no path for Trump to get to 270 votes among states remaining that are controlled by Republican legislatures (the only outstanding Biden wins are AZ and WI, and there's no indication they won't be certified soon). 

Any opportunity that Trump had to get the election overturned in courts or by the legislatures has passed.  Yay!

[Ormond]

The discussion of Manchin led me to thinking about states where the two U.S. Senators are not from the same party. After the new Democratic senators in Arizona and Colorado take their seats, I think there will only be five -- Maine, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Montana. Somebody tell me if I've missed one. This is certainly another sign of modern polarization -- I think a generation ago it was much more common for a state's two senators to be from different parties. 

[OnionAhaiReborn]

15 minutes ago, Ormond said:

The discussion of Manchin led me to thinking about states where the two U.S. Senators are not from the same party. After the new Democratic senators in Arizona and Colorado take their seats, I think there will only be five -- Maine, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Montana. Somebody tell me if I've missed one.

Ohio

[Fez]

39 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

With GA, MI, and PA now certified, there is no path for Trump to get to 270 votes among states remaining that are controlled by Republican legislatures (the only outstanding Biden wins are AZ and WI, and there's no indication they won't be certified soon). 

Any opportunity that Trump had to get the election overturned in courts or by the legislatures has passed.  Yay!

I agree that the danger seems like its passed. But if a legislature did want to go YOLO, I don't think certification would stop anything. They would just say that as the legislature they are deeming the vote irrelevant and are choosing change how the elector slate is elected and to award a slate to Trump, per their authority in the Constitution. And then rely on SCOTUS to say, yes, legislatures can do this.

 

In other news, it sounds like Democrats may actually win the IA-2 seat on recount:

It's not clear yet, but this would be a huge win for Democrats; considering how tight the House margin is. 

Meanwhile, NY22 continues to sound like a total shitshow, and I wouldn't be surprised if the seat remains vacant for months (a la Franklin not getting Coleman's senate until June in 2009).