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Lollygag

US Politics - And Now it Begins

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Y'all are clearly dropping the ball if I'm doing this.

Adding to the list of Republicans getting primaried for not being sufficiently loyal.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/158106-us-politics-the-liar-in-winter/&do=findComment&comment=8608551

 

Brian Kemp is now getting rammed from the right.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/watch-far-right-and-white-nationalist-groypers-rally-against-gop-governor-brian-kemp-call-him-a-traitor/

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“And if Republican traitors like Kemp are not willing to show up for us — then we will not be willing to show up for them,” James stated. “Brian Kemp is a traitor!”

Trump supporters in Georgia vow to destroy the Republican Party if Trump doesn’t win pic.twitter.com/04dPRQFfC0

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) November 21, 2020

 

“If the Republican establishment stands back and stands by and allows the steal to go through, we will do whatever it takes to completely destroy the Republican Party forever,” James continued.

Hannity has called for Doug Collins to primary him.

https://www.mediamatters.org/voter-fraud-and-suppression/sean-hannity-complains-about-georgia-mail-ballots-and-tells-rep-doug

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The Republican party was destroyed when they voted to have Trump as their nominee in 2016. It has been nothing but a remnant of the old party in the hands of a cult of personality since then. Perhaps when Donald Trump is put in jail for his crimes there will be some people among the "leaders" in today's GOP who will be willing to fight back against Trumpism, but I haven't seen any evidence of it happening.

If Brian Kemp, of all people, is looked at as "disloyal" for simply doing his job and not being ruled by the conspiratorial fantasies of the neo-nazis on the far right, then it is time for the party to die. Perhaps some advocates of conservatism can coalesce around a non -Trump party, but that would entail courage to offer a different vision than Trump. A quality sorely lacking in the Republican Party right now.

The irony here is that the Biden administration might actually provide a path forward for non-Trump republicans. They will just have to be willing to work with him.

Edited by SFDanny

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Calling it now.

Both Dems and Republicans tend to decide what's good and bad depending on what benefits them right now and they don't game it out like they should. The formation of our government was a lot freer to weigh the pros and cons of any given thing from multiple sides as the party thing was largely just Federalist and Anti-Federalist.

For those calling for a national popular vote or for putting in laws saying all of x state's EC votes to go to the national popular vote winner, it's not the sure thing you all think it is - THE REPUBLICANS ARE USING THIS ELECTION FRAUD STUFF TO THROW THE POPULAR VOTE. What happens when we get a bunch of Trumpist govs, and SoS all working together to manipulate the popular vote and places like Colorado are forced to go red?

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Nope. Madison was very clear about that  (n°10). It's right there on the page.

The Founding Fathers were more honest about the fact that electing representatives limits the power of the people, pretty much by definition.

Like any 18th century politician, Madison would presumably be comparing it to the Athenian example, by which standard almost no modern democracy is a democracy. Which is fair, but not in accordance with common usage - and also involved the exclusion of slaves and women.

Edited by FalagarV2

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So the congressional races appear to almost, mercifully, finishing up.  In the New Jersey 7th, Tom Kean Jr. (R) has conceded.  In California's 21st, as of yesterday TJ Cox (D) still trails by about 1600 votes.  He's yet to concede, but David Wasserman has called the race for Republican David Valadao.  That puts the House at 222-210 with 3 races remaining. 

In California's 25th, Katie Hill's old district, Mike Garcia (R) claimed victory yesterday, yet only leads by 400 votes with approximately 2,500 yet to be counted in LA county.

In New York's 22nd, Claudia Tenney (R) holds about a 285 vote lead and has claimed victory, but it appears the race will be resolved by a judge on Monday:

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During Monday's proceedings, Justice DelConte will rule over the fates of at least 2,696 ballots. For a link to see the court order mandating this process, click here.

These ballots fall into four categories: ballots where a campaign has challenged their legality, and that challenge was sustained by elections commissioners; ballots that were challenged and the challenge was unsustained by the commissioners; ballots that were rejected for administrative reasons by the commissioners; and finally, in the case of Oswego County, 73 overseas and military ballots that have not yet been touched at all.

The challenged ballots have already been included in the county's vote totals; if the challenge is successful, the vote will be subtracted from the total. The opposite is true for the administrative rejections, which have not been included in the counts. If those rejections are overruled by Justice DelConte, they would need to be added, or "installed", in the final count.

Finally, in the Iowa 2nd, a recount continues with Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks retains a 47-vote lead, although now it appears there's some controversy over counting some 60 thousand absentee votes.

It should be noted that the CA-25th and NY-22nd would be GOP holds, while IA-2nd would be a GOP pickup.  All in all, if there's no change in outcome in the three races and the House composition ends up 222-213, that will be a ten seat loss for the Democrats.

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56 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

For those calling for a national popular vote or for putting in laws saying all of x state's EC votes to go to the national popular vote winner, it's not the sure thing you all think it is - THE REPUBLICANS ARE USING THIS ELECTION FRAUD STUFF TO THROW THE POPULAR VOTE. What happens when we get a bunch of Trumpist govs, and SoS all working together to manipulate the popular vote and places like Colorado are forced to go red?

Um, what in gods' names are you talking about?  The Republican governor and SoS of Georgia just certified the results giving Biden victory.  In Maricopa, four Republicans (and one Democrat) just certified the results giving Biden victory.  Congressional GOP leaders in Michigan just sandbagged Trump's beckoning of them to the White House, and GOP legislative leaders in AZ, MI, PA, and WI have remained consistent they aren't going to go along with any attempt by Trump to fuck with the electoral college.  The Colorado governor and secretary of state are Democrats.  The notion GOP governors would overturn the results in blue states such as Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, or Vermont is positively preposterous.  And outside of Arizona and Georgia those are the only blue states with GOP governors, BTW.

Even if all of that was reversed, anyone that can count knows it'd be incredibly more difficult to try to overturn the 6 million vote margin Biden has nationwide than the ~45 thousand vote margin combined in AZ, GA, and WI - which if overturned would put the EC at a 269 tie.  Suggesting changing to the national popular vote winner would not obviously benefit the Democrats for the foreseeable future is hair dye running down the sides of Giuliani's face-level insane.

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33 minutes ago, DMC said:

Um, what in gods' names are you talking about?  The Republican governor and SoS of Georgia just certified the results giving Biden victory.  In Maricopa, four Republicans (and one Democrat) just certified the results giving Biden victory.  Congressional GOP leaders in Michigan just sandbagged Trump's beckoning of them to the White House, and GOP legislative leaders in AZ, MI, PA, and WI have remained consistent they aren't going to go along with any attempt by Trump to fuck with the electoral college.  The Colorado governor and secretary of state are Democrats.  The notion GOP governors would overturn the results in blue states such as Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, or Vermont is positively preposterous.  And outside of Arizona and Georgia those are the only blue states with GOP governors, BTW.

Even if all of that was reversed, anyone that can count knows it'd be incredibly more difficult to try to overturn the 6 million vote margin Biden has nationwide than the ~45 thousand vote margin combined in AZ, GA, and WI - which if overturned would put the EC at a 269 tie.  Suggesting changing to the national popular vote winner would not obviously benefit the Democrats for the foreseeable future is hair dye running down the sides of Giuliani's face-level insane.

I'm aware of this. Colorado put into law that says their electoral votes go to the national popular vote winner. Not sure if other states joined but quite a number of folks thought this was a just-add-water fix.

I'm not talking about now. I'm referring to the EC vs popular vote debate which is obviously not relevant at present (hence a scenario with Collins or Jordan as gov, which they aren't. Yet). I'm pointing out how they're gaming the system and I'm deeply frustrated that Dems make knee-jerk decisions without gaming them out.

Yes, it's tougher with a wider vote margin. Except it's not always this wide and if you put into place sycophants in a number of gov/SoS positions, that can be manipulated to be closer. 

Bold: reread my post. I didn't suggest this.

Edited by Lollygag

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What we need to be worried about in terms of transition is that in Florida, particularly Miami, Spanish language media of every kind including the radio are running that giuliani press conference and his wild ravings about conspiracy, theft and that rumpty won, non-stop, as the very truth.

Doing the same in English language media in places like, o Omaha, where outside liveth one of my nephews and his born again wife and family. They believe every single word of of the lies, including Covid-19 is a hoax and nobody is really dying of it.  All these deaths are natural, from age, cancer, heart failure, and would have happened anyway.  I know it's so because my sister told me so -- while herself not able to convince herself that this is actually so . . . . She's having a hard time in her family.  She lives and has lived for nothing but her children and her grandchildren now, but she can't quite let go all the way of the brain she inherited, even though like me she's from North Dakota.

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1 minute ago, Lollygag said:

I'm aware of this.

Colorado is indeed the most recent state to enact the National Popular Vote compact into law.  Obviously, that doesn't come into effect until states possessing at least 270 electoral votes combined have passed such laws.  Anyway, the party of Colorado's governor is irrelevant to the compact beyond the fact only a Democratic governor would sign on to the compact and only a Republican governor would sign a law reversing that.

What "knee-jerk" decisions are the Dems "not gaming out" and how does that have anything to do with supporting the national popular vote winner being the actual winner?  Brian Kemp is a Trumpist governor and he still certified the results.  The only difference between him and Doug Collins ideologically is that Kemp was in the unfortunate (for his political hopes among Trumpists) position that it was his responsibility to certify the results.

It isn't just this election, obviously, where it is clear the national vote winner would benefit Democrats.  There's also 2000 and 2016.  Unless there is a dramatic shift in the electorate's voting behavior and/or partisanship, deciding the winner by the popular rather than electoral college vote will inherently advantage Democrats for the foreseeable future.  This is inarguable - particularly if Florida and Texas remain red considering they are gaining 5 of the 10 electoral votes that are anticipated to shift following reapportionment.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

So the congressional races appear to almost, mercifully, finishing up.  In the New Jersey 7th, Tom Kean Jr. (R) has conceded.  In California's 21st, as of yesterday TJ Cox (D) still trails by about 1600 votes.  He's yet to concede, but David Wasserman has called the race for Republican David Valadao.  That puts the House at 222-210 with 3 races remaining. 

In California's 25th, Katie Hill's old district, Mike Garcia (R) claimed victory yesterday, yet only leads by 400 votes with approximately 2,500 yet to be counted in LA county.

While I follow Wasserman, and respect his analysis, I'm hoping the Cox-Valadao race isn't over. I've been watching for the last ballots in Kern county to come in where Cox has his greatest strength, but there hasn't been any real movement for a week or so. Valadao's strength comes mostly from Kings county and that is mostly in. I expect the race to tighten at the end, just as it did in 2018 when Cox came from behind to win the seat. I certainly don't know enough about the votes outstanding to say that will happen, but I think Cox hasn't conceded yet still gives me hope.

The Garcia/Smith race will turn on the results from LA county. Smith has done best there, but not to the extent Cox does in Kern.

We may know much more in a very short time. The state usually posts new results at 5:00 PM California time.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Colorado is indeed the most recent state to enact the National Popular Vote compact into law.  Obviously, that doesn't come into effect until states possessing at least 270 electoral votes combined have passed such laws.  Anyway, the party of Colorado's governor is irrelevant to the compact beyond the fact only a Democratic governor would sign on to the compact and only a Republican governor would sign a law reversing that.

What "knee-jerk" decisions are the Dems "not gaming out" and how does that have anything to do with supporting the national popular vote winner being the actual winner?  Brian Kemp is a Trumpist governor and he still certified the results.  The only difference between him and Doug Collins ideologically is that Kemp was in the unfortunate (for his political hopes among Trumpists) position that it was his responsibility to certify the results.

It isn't just this election, obviously, where it is clear the national vote winner would benefit Democrats.  There's also 2000 and 2016.  Unless there is a dramatic shift in the electorate's voting behavior and/or partisanship, deciding the winner by the popular rather than electoral college vote will inherently advantage Democrats for the foreseeable future.  This is inarguable - particularly if Florida and Texas remain red considering they are gaining 5 of the 10 electoral votes that are anticipated to shift following reapportionment.

Ok, but none of this really has anything to do with my point. Doing the windmill thing again, Quixote.

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2 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Ok, but none of this really has anything to do with my point. Doing the windmill thing again, Quixote.

Your points are impossible to divine.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Your points are impossible to divine.

I'm not very linear. :dunno:

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9 minutes ago, Raja said:

Is Jeb okay?

 

Apparently Room Rater is too politically partisan. And this is important right now. :rolleyes:

 

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Loeffler self-isolates after positive Covid test
The Georgia Republican has been actively campaigning ahead of the state’s Jan. 5 runoff, appearing with Vice President Mike Pence at a rally on Friday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/21/loeffler-self-isolates-after-positive-covid-test-439034

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Sen. Kelly Loeffler is self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus, her campaign announced on Saturday, though a second test was inconclusive and a rapid test came back negative.

The Georgia Republican, who has been actively campaigning for the state’s Jan. 5 runoff against Democrat Raphael Warnock, took two Covid-19 tests on Friday morning before appearing with Vice President Mike Pence at a campaign rally. The rapid test came back negative, but Loeffler, 49, learned on Friday evening that her PCR test — a more accurate sampling — came back positive, according to Loeffler’s spokesman, Stephen Lawson.

 

 

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There is only two things that Jeb should be remembered for, first for helping his fuck up brother steal an election, and second, for this.

Oh, one more thing, the fact that even with the power of his political dynasty behind him, he still got rolled by the guy from The Apprentice.

Edited by GrimTuesday

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Pat Toomey becomes the fifth GOP Senator to explicitly congratulate/acknowledge Biden's victory:

 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Pat Toomey becomes the fifth GOP Senator to explicitly congratulate/acknowledge Biden's victory:

 

Very interesting. Perhaps Senator Toomey is looking for something in return from Biden? That ambassadorship I was musing about just inched closer from just musings to still far-fetched? I'll take it!

"Dear Pat,

Dublin is beautiful and in need of a good friendly face as Brexit roles out. Would you, perchance, like to ..."

Just a note, that you @DMC I'm sure are already aware of, the Judge in the case received his appointment with the help of Toomey during the Obama/Biden Administration. One can be certain that three sons of the Irish diaspora played a role in Matthew Brann's appointment. Toomey, Casey, and Biden. A trifecta of Irish roots and not a bad name for a law firm. Perhaps that relationship will bring forth new cooperation?

Edited by SFDanny

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