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Mithras

Cersei will not flee

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There is this mistaken notion that Cersei will flee to Casterly Rock so that fAegon can take King's Landing. This cannot be further from the truth. Cersei will never flee.

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“Tell Lady Sansa why I keep you by us,” said Cersei.

Ser Ilyn opened his mouth and emitted a choking rattle. His pox-scarred face had no expression.

“He’s here for us, he says,” the queen said. “Stannis may take the city and he may take the throne, but I will not suffer him to judge me. I do not mean for him to have us alive.”

“Us?”

“You heard me. So perhaps you had best pray again, Sansa, and for a different outcome. The Starks will have no joy from the fall of House Lannister, I promise you.” She reached out and touched Sansa’s hair, brushing it lightly away from her neck.

 

Cersei spent almost all her life at King’s Landing. Just do the math and you will see. She has no real connection to Casterly Rock near as close to King's Landing. Power flows from King’s Landing and Cersei is addicted to it. Then or now, she will not flee. She will not be judged by anyone.

In fact, after the tragedies she suffered since Blackwater and will further suffer in the Winds, she will be even more resolved to make her last stand at the seat of ultimate power. There is no life for her if she loses King's Landing or the power associated with it. She will not meekly accept the unravelling of Maggy's Prophecy in front of her eyes. She will not give the joy of victory to whoever she believes to be the younger and more beautiful queen or the valonqar.

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17 minutes ago, Mithras said:

There is this mistaken notion that Cersei will flee to Casterly Rock so that fAegon can take King's Landing. This cannot be further from the truth. Cersei will never flee.

Cersei spent almost all her life at King’s Landing. Just do the math and you will see. She has no real connection to Casterly Rock near as close to King's Landing. Power flows from King’s Landing and Cersei is addicted to it. Then or now, she will not flee. She will not be judged by anyone.

In fact, after the tragedies she suffered since Blackwater and will further suffer in the Winds, she will be even more resolved to make her last stand at the seat of ultimate power. There is no life for her if she loses King's Landing or the power associated with it. She will not meekly accept the unravelling of Maggy's Prophecy in front of her eyes. She will not give the joy of victory to whoever she believes to be the younger and more beautiful queen or the valonqar.

:agree: :cheers:

She's gonna RIP in KL. Okay, not in peace tho

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40 minutes ago, Mithras said:

There is this mistaken notion that Cersei will flee to Casterly Rock so that fAegon can take King's Landing. This cannot be further from the truth. Cersei will never flee.

Quote

 

“Tell Lady Sansa why I keep you by us,” said Cersei.

Ser Ilyn opened his mouth and emitted a choking rattle. His pox-scarred face had no expression.

“He’s here for us, he says,” the queen said. “Stannis may take the city and he may take the throne, but I will not suffer him to judge me. I do not mean for him to have us alive.”

“Us?”

“You heard me. So perhaps you had best pray again, Sansa, and for a different outcome. The Starks will have no joy from the fall of House Lannister, I promise you.” She reached out and touched Sansa’s hair, brushing it lightly away from her neck.

 

Cersei spent almost all her life at King’s Landing. Just do the math and you will see. She has no real connection to Casterly Rock near as close to King's Landing. Power flows from King’s Landing and Cersei is addicted to it. Then or now, she will not flee. She will not be judged by anyone.

In fact, after the tragedies she suffered since Blackwater and will further suffer in the Winds, she will be even more resolved to make her last stand at the seat of ultimate power. There is no life for her if she loses King's Landing or the power associated with it. She will not meekly accept the unravelling of Maggy's Prophecy in front of her eyes. She will not give the joy of victory to whoever she believes to be the younger and more beautiful queen or the valonqar.

:agree:

I would like to add, that this being true also supports the notion that Aegon is legit. He will be the one to take KL, and if he is the valonquar, then he's a little brother. The real Aegon was one, Rhaenys's little brother, while if he is born from Illyrion and Saerra then that is no longer the case. So I think that Aegon is legit and Cersei will die by the hand of his armies slowly tightening the noose around ehr proverbial neck.

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She will either flee or end up Aegon's prisoner - and he might not bind her with golden shackles like Rhaenyra used on Alicent, but throw her in a black cell to starve to death.

The latter would just be a stupid plot line for her, since we will have two POVs in KL with Jon and Arianne, no need for a third. And Cersei is not cut out to play the role of another Sansa for the remainder of the series. She is a character who has to do something. Which she can't right because nobody is going to follow her.

This is not a static story. People do travel around.

The idea that Cersei will remain in KL until her death is about as ridiculous as the idea that Daenerys will remain in the Dothraki Sea or Tyrion in Meereen.

Not to mention that the only thing glueing Cersei to that ridiculous KL court is Tommen. She wanted to move to Casterly Rock back in AFfC and not chose not to do this because it would do further damage to Tommen's legitimacy and standing. Once Tommen/Myrcella are dead - and as per the prophecy they will predecease Cersei - nothing will tie her to the capital.

And in the end she can still die in KL if she ever retakes the city. This story is far from over.

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I agree that Cersei lives and dies in Kings Landing. She will not give up her hold on power until her life is taken from her. Her kids were just a conduit.

George promised we would see Casterly Rock, but it will not come from Cersei. I believe that will be either from Tyrion's or Arya's POVs (on their way back to Westeros). Maybe Jaime's, but I don't see it.

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I've never read Cersei as a runner.   She has already demonstrated that she will die before surrender.  More likely than fleeing she will pull something along the lines of Maegor or Aegon III, standing her ground in some safe space in complete defiance of the inevitible.  Or the IT itself will kill her.  

6 hours ago, Mithras said:

Power flows from King’s Landing and Cersei is addicted to it.

I suppose we shall see how clever Cersei really is, how Tywinesq Jon Connington can be and how perfect Aegon responds to her sheer will.  Will the perfect prince kill a woman?  Will she remain defiant when her baby is killed?  Delicious.  

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I used to think that Cersei was supposed to parallel Rhaenyra (mainly because of the three bastard children with their suspicious hair), but now I'm more inclined to believe that her fate will be closer to Alicent's. I'm guessing that fAegon will take her prisoner rather than killing her, in order to show the people that he is merciful, and that she will become a POV from inside the Red Keep, along with Arianne and (possibly) Sansa. I'm sure she'll still be scheming in the shadows, so there's probably plenty left for her character to do, even as a captive. 

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She will either flee or end up Aegon's prisoner - and he might not bind her with golden shackles like Rhaenyra used on Alicent, but throw her in a black cell to starve to death.

The latter would just be a stupid plot line for her, since we will have two POVs in KL with Jon and Arianne, no need for a third. And Cersei is not cut out to play the role of another Sansa for the remainder of the series. She is a character who has to do something. Which she can't right because nobody is going to follow her.

This is not a static story. People do travel around.

The idea that Cersei will remain in KL until her death is about as ridiculous as the idea that Daenerys will remain in the Dothraki Sea or Tyrion in Meereen.

Not to mention that the only thing glueing Cersei to that ridiculous KL court is Tommen. She wanted to move to Casterly Rock back in AFfC and not chose not to do this because it would do further damage to Tommen's legitimacy and standing. Once Tommen/Myrcella are dead - and as per the prophecy they will predecease Cersei - nothing will tie her to the capital.

And in the end she can still die in KL if she ever retakes the city. This story is far from over.

I'm willing to bet that Qyburn will survive fAegon's invasion, so we might see the two of them scheming in the shadows if she becomes a prisoner. It also could just be that Cersei's character might take a backseat for part of TWOW in order to focus on the other characters, similar to how Sansa or Theon did.

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51 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I used to think that Cersei was supposed to parallel Rhaenyra (mainly because of the three bastard children with their suspicious hair), but now I'm more inclined to believe that her fate will be closer to Alicent's. I'm guessing that fAegon will take her prisoner rather than killing her, in order to show the people that he is merciful, and that she will become a POV from inside the Red Keep, along with Arianne and (possibly) Sansa. I'm sure she'll still be scheming in the shadows, so there's probably plenty left for her character to do, even as a captive. 

And the main parallel to Rhaenyra that I’ve seen is Stannis (though he would hardly appreciate the comparison). Both believe themselves to be the rightful heir to the Iron Throne, with their opposition a usurper (Aegon II is seen as a parallel to Joffrey), hold their seat of power at Dragonstone, their ascension is feared by their detractors because of their unforgiving nature, and each attempts an invasion of King’s Landing (Stannis fails, Rhaenyra succeeds).

Edited by Angel Eyes

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3 hours ago, Travis said:

I agree that Cersei lives and dies in Kings Landing. She will not give up her hold on power until her life is taken from her. Her kids were just a conduit.

Cersei no longer has any power and no means to regain it. This is not a fairy-tale world where disgraced queens just can conjure up armies out of thin air.

3 hours ago, Travis said:

George promised we would see Casterly Rock, but it will not come from Cersei. I believe that will be either from Tyrion's or Arya's POVs (on their way back to Westeros). Maybe Jaime's, but I don't see it.

Would be bizarre in light of the fact that Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. And the person Tyrion should take Casterly Rock from should also be Cersei ... although she doesn't have to be there at that time. But that's something for well beyond TWoW territory.

3 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I've never read Cersei as a runner.   She has already demonstrated that she will die before surrender.  More likely than fleeing she will pull something along the lines of Maegor or Aegon III, standing her ground in some safe space in complete defiance of the inevitible.  Or the IT itself will kill her.  

Cersei will not run, she will go to raise another army and, presumably, to marry Euron Greyjoy. It will be a tactical retreat, but infinitely better than becoming a prisoner. Which she will be if she stays behind.

To parallel her present situation with her as the Queen Regent and - in that capacity - unquestioned ruler in KL from ACoK is misleading. Cersei no longer rules in Joff's or Tommen's name, she no longer has any large armies in the field nor men in the city that obey her commands. Even the Lannister household guards would commit treason if they were to try to stage a coup.

Mace Tyrell isn't Ned Stark down to a few guardsmen. He has hundreds of guardsmen in the castle and an entire army in the city. There is no way she can turn that around with the men she has.

And Cersei never has sat the Iron Throne so far ... and she most likely never will. She is a woman without so much a drop of royal blood. If she didn't dare to sit there as regent, she won't sit there as whatever she is now. And if sides with Euron he might sit it, but he would never allow her access to that chair. I guess she could end up there if Euron were to predecease her, but I doubt that will happen. He is a much better big bad than Cersei could ever hope to be.

46 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I used to think that Cersei was supposed to parallel Rhaenyra (mainly because of the three bastard children with their suspicious hair), but now I'm more inclined to believe that her fate will be closer to Alicent's. I'm guessing that fAegon will take her prisoner rather than killing her, in order to show the people that he is merciful, and that she will become a POV from inside the Red Keep, along with Arianne and (possibly) Sansa. I'm sure she'll still be scheming in the shadows, so there's probably plenty left for her character to do, even as a captive. 

While that is a possible plot line, I really hope it won't come to that. It would make her a pointless POV and George would have to jump through too many hoops to justify her survival. Arianne won't show any mercy after her Trystane plan and even less so after the Gregor revelation. Not to mention that she will also realize that Cersei will do everything to destroy them after Cersei finally figures out why Myrcella was disfigured.

Cersei is in a unique position to rule in her own right as Lady of Casterly Rock as well as make an alliance with Euron.

But depending how things go down Cersei certainly could also only flee after Aegon has taken the capital. The reason why I think it might make more sense for her to go before that happens is that in the wake of the double murder and her walk she might fear her enemies in KL and the Red Keep itself much more than any outside force. She will believe Tyrion will take out her and Tommen next.

But there is certainly a scenario imaginable where the Tyrells lock her up and she is only able to flee in the chaos when Aegon takes city and castle. It depends on what goes down after the double murder and more so after her trial - if that takes place.

54 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I'm willing to bet that Qyburn will survive fAegon's invasion, so we might see the two of them scheming in the shadows if she becomes a prisoner. It also could just be that Cersei's character might take a backseat for part of TWOW in order to focus on the other characters, similar to how Sansa or Theon did.

Hopefully not. Qyburn and Ser Robert should be crucial in her escape. Neither would be spared by Aegon's regime or be allowed to be part of it. Nor would Cersei be allowed to interact with them as a prisoner. In fact, if they spared her she would completely lose all access to support.

Unlike a Dance scenario Cersei cannot hope to have hidden friends and supporters among the castle servants. She isn't Alicent Hightower, and Aegon's new regime has no reason or intention to keep the people of the old regime. Rhaenyra spared them because Aegon II's court was her father's court, basically. But Tommen's court isn't exactly Aerys II's court, so there is little reason to keep any of the Lannister or Tyrell servants.

And considering how George recent reports indicate there will be multiple Cersei chapters in TWoW I'm rather confident that she gets a front seat.

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To entertain the notion of scheming Cersei for a moment, especially at Aegon's court. How the hell could she ever get into anyone's good graces from such a position. The Lannisters are not likely to fight a war in her name without a clear leader - and such a guy is nowhere to be found. Jaime won't do it, Daven is not likely to return from the Riverlands alive, and the others are just obscure names.

And aside from the Lannisters/Westermen Cersei has no one to trust or turn to.

If she were to return home, take her lordship into her own hands, and spread a carefully constructed story about how she and her (late) children were abused and betrayed and murdered by their enemies then she stands a fighting chance ... especially if she were to hook up with Euron.

A Cersei at Aegon's court could not even hope to hook up or ally with people Aegon might eventually disappoint or antagonize, especially since the Martells, Tyrells, Stormlords, Riverlords, and Vale lords are likely to gather at his court. None of those people have any love left for House Lannister.

In a position of real power - i.e. with an army of her own and access to the gold of Casterly Rock - Cersei could become a player again, perhaps even a general in the field. You have to keep in mind that she was pissed that Jaime got to play with swords and is convinced she is better than men at the game played by men. She will never become a warrior, of course, but one certainly can see her leading armies into battle just as Dany does.

But for that she needs men who are loyal to her ... and they are not in KL.

It strikes me as very odd how people could actually believe Cersei is set up to return to power in KL. George jumped to a lot of hoops to make her losing of power in AFfC believable - the sparrow thing made some sense but still feels too rushed considering how little time has passed and how stupid Cersei reacted to them, but the really mindblowing - and completely unexplained - silly move on her part is her sending the Lannister troops back home while allowing the Reach troops to remain in the field and close at the capital at that.

That was utter nonsense from her POV. Even she as a character is not as stupid as that - which is why there was no explanation for this. It just happened in passing.

If the author's plan were to have Cersei preserve or regain her power in KL she would right now have men to count upon, an army/host strong enough to take on both the Tyrells and the Faith and Aegon. But she doesn't have that.

George could have given us a plot were Cersei sent the Reach troops back home, where the Lannister army in the city was split up to pacify the Riverlands and take Dragonstone and Storm's End. But he didn't do that. If he had, he could have still had both the arrest and the walk, with a Lannister loyalist playing the role of Tarly and Cersei being back in the regent's chair in the Epilogue instead of Kevan.

But that's not what he did. And we have to ask why. What is the point of specifically weaken the power of the Lannisters at court?

The answer can point in multiple directions ... but Cersei taking power in KL all by herself against the Tyrells and Aegon is just not one of them.

Doesn't mean she cannot return to power in the capital eventually. But for that she needs a new army ... and an army who specifically devoted to her and her cause.

42 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

She won't flee, but I'm pretty convinced she will succeed where Aerys failed. She is going to crater King's Landing. 

That is also an idea more for Aegon or Euron ... or their people. Cersei has right now intention to destroy the city. Not while her children yet live. And most definitely not while her relationship with Jaime isn't over for good (from her POV) and he completely and utterly betrayed her in her view.

And if she were to seize power in the capital - like she did in the shit-show, although such a plot simply cannot happen in the books - then she would also have no interest in destroying her own power base. Like she said, she would try to seduce any man but Stannis, so if Aegon or Euron came knocking she would not try to destroy herself and the city.

With Dany it might different, but even there ... why shouldn't she try to hook up with her, seriously? Dany is not going to be the one to kill her remaining children, Jaime is not going to join her, so if other factions end up hurting her - Aegon or Euron or the Martells and Tyrells, Littlefinger, Sansa, etc. - then such a standoff just would look very odd to say the least.

I mean, with Marge not being the younger, more beautiful queen it is kind of obvious that Sansa and Arianne are the two contenders for that role - both as Aegon's potential queens.

Arianne is one of the hottest women alive in Westeros, and younger than Cersei. And Sansa is arguable one of the few women who could grow into a more beautiful women than Cersei. Dany could, too, of course, but she is the obvious candidate for that role - like Tyrion as the valonqar - which is why that's not likely to happen.

If Dany was where Aegon is right now she would be the younger, more beautiful queen. But she is not, so that's simply not going to happen.

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1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

If Tommen dies, she may leave. Cersei can't get revenge on all those who wronged her if she dies in King's Landing.

She might even consider to flee after the double murder - to ensure that Tommen is not killed by the dwarfs and traitors hiding in the walls. She was paranoid before, her walk and the double murder is going to unhinge her even further. The idea that she is confident Tommen could continue to live at KL even if the Tyrells disappeared for some reason would be very far-fetched.

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wait people actually think this?

 

For Tommen's safety, MAYBE, but she'd still probably be convinced he's safest at KL and even moreso convinced her and her power is safe there?

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fAegon won’t take King’s Landing.

He doesn't have a navy yet.

He doesn't have enough numbers yet.

King’s Landing is the largest city with formidable defenses. Even the goldcloaks should be enough to defend the city from mercenaries with no navy or siege weapons. On top of that, basic logic necessitates that half of the Tyrell army will stay in King’s Landing to defend the capitol while the other half goes to deal with these mercenaries. That alone will kill any chance of fAegon being able to take King’s Landing for a long time.

Further reinforcements from Riverlands or the Reach can come to smash them.

Even the inclusion of Dornish armies and a few Stormlanders will not win the hearts and swords of Crownlanders to them. These people have no reason to believe fAegon's claim, nor any love for the Dornish. It will be seen as a power grab of Dorne with a feigned boy.

Cersei will not be found guilty, hence Tommen's legitimacy will not be questioned by the Faith.

As of the Epilogue of ADwD, Varys was trying to restore Cersei (not destroy her) so that she can continue doing mistakes to undermine the Lannister/Tyrell alliance while fAegon grows stronger. Mercy chapter confirms that Cersei returned to power, though some among you are bold enough to ignore that.

Even in the hypothetical scenario that fAegon manages to oust Cersei and takes King’s Landing, he will still have to conquer the rest of Westeros by force. No one will automatically declare for him just for that fact that he sits his ass on the Iron Throne. Then, why should he risk attacking King’s Landing? He can start with the conquering part already, instead of focusing on King’s Landing. Taking Westeros piece by piece and drawing the Lannister/Tyrell armies to the field instead of trying to defeat them while besieging them in a fortified city is the most reasonable course of action.

King’s Landing is a sink for gold. It is a huge burden for whoever holds it. The royal treasury is already empty and the Iron Throne cannot get new loans. Cersei will have no choice but to use the gold of the Casterly Rock to upkeep the city. Trying to feed hundreds of thousands of people in times of a war with no room for further taxes will quickly drain any treasury. fAegon would be a fool to take this burden upon himself as the first thing to do in Westeros.

Dany’s HotU vision about the cloth dragon can easily take place at Oldtown if fAegon arrives in time to save the city from the ironborn. fAegon’s army is already full of hungry knights waiting for their spoils and rewards. They are seen as mercenaries and sell-swords, with good reason. If they take the King's Landing, they will savagely sack it. That doesn't fit with the cheering crowd in Dany’s vision.

Mad Queen Cersei theory is one of the strongest theories that came with AFfC, long before the obsession with fAegon taking King’s Landing existed. All those mountains of Cersei-wildfire connotations pretty much makes it a given. Also GRRM revealed that Cersei’s story is far from being over. At this point, it is pretty much guaranteed that Cersei is an endgame character. Removing Cersei from King’s Landing, only to have her return to take it doesn’t make any sense. She will not flee as I showed in the OP. She is glued to King’s Landing till the endgame where she burns it.

Basic rules of playing a mystery necessitate that both the valonqar and the younger and more beautiful queen should be someone personally related to Cersei. If we take any person that came out of a vagina after someone as possible candidate for valonqar, there is no way to identify the valonqar uniquely before the story shows it. That is not a good way to play a mystery. Mysteries cannot be too obvious but they also cannot be impossible to guess. Arianne cannot be the younger and more beautiful queen because she doesn’t have a personal history with Cersei. Same goes for the idea of fAegon being the valonqar. Jaime being the valonqar is as solid a theory as Cersei being the Mad Queen.

By itself, fAegon taking King’s Landing is a weak and implausible theory. But its greater guilt is in directly contradicting with well established theories. When you try to remove a solid theory in favor of a weaker one, you end up making additional weaker theories to back it up. Hence, fAegon taking King’s Landing comes with a bundle of equally implausible theories.

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@Mithras SLOW DOWN SON lol

You start off well and then make assumption after assumption.

Let's start with facts; yes Cersei gains a modicum of power again in King's Landing. That still isn't the kit and caboodle of it.

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17 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I've never read Cersei as a runner.   She has already demonstrated that she will die before surrender.  More likely than fleeing she will pull something along the lines of Maegor or Aegon III, standing her ground in some safe space in complete defiance of the inevitible.  Or the IT itself will kill her.  

I suppose we shall see how clever Cersei really is, how Tywinesq Jon Connington can be and how perfect Aegon responds to her sheer will.  Will the perfect prince kill a woman?  Will she remain defiant when her baby is killed?  Delicious.  

She trice runs in the novel at least : When she breaks during the Walk of Shame, when she flees from Maggy the Frog's tent and when she is arrested by the Faith of Seven.

Edited by Eltharion21

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