Covid-19 #20: Nowhere to Hide

[Fragile Bird]

It's everywhere and they won't let you in to Oz or Kiwi land.

[DireWolfSpirit]

It's Monday and that always means gigantic reporting numbers likely.

[Zorral]

Won't let us into Canada either, nor should they.

So the Hassid massive wedding that went on for three days and nights maskless indoors was the weekend of the 7th -- imagine what the numbers for NYC and NY will be by tomorrow.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Worldwide chart numbers for active cases, daily new cases and daily new deaths are blowing away the high numbers from the spring wave.

It's going to be a long, long, dangerous winter before these vaccines can get dispersed and hopefully start the relief from this plague.

[Zorral]

Massively dangerous; these parties are making it worse:

https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/nyc-underground-nightlife-covid-19.html#_ga=2.100004510.1610686896.1606161596-11240196.1606161596

https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/cops-bust-80-person-party-at-a-sex-club-in-queens.html

https://www.thecut.com/2020/11/new-yorkers-on-partying-during-covid-19.html

And of course the synagogues and churches -- though we're not hearing stories like this out of the Islamic communities -- worship, weddings and funerals.

Plus all the 'at home' stuff, the restaurants -- and people just traveling back-and-forth, inspecting potential winter digs in Florida, etc.  and now the holidays, and all that flying back-and-forth.

 

[Clueless Northman]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

So the Hassid massive wedding that went on for three days and nights maskless indoors was the weekend of the 7th -- imagine what the numbers for NYC and NY will be by tomorrow.

Weird, I always thought the Torah referred to God as "Yahweh"; is there a hassidic variant where he's actually called Nurgle?

[argonak]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Worldwide chart numbers for active cases, daily new cases and daily new deaths are blowing away the high numbers from the spring wave.

It's going to be a long, long, dangerous winter before these vaccines can get dispersed and hopefully start the relief from this plague.

That's assuming that we have enough for everyone, and that the red hatters will take the vaccine.  

[Kalbear]

don't worry guys we're good

 

 

[Starkess]

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

It's everywhere and they won't let you in to Oz or Kiwi land.

I know, I've asked very nicely 8 times now... 

[BigFatCoward]

8 hours ago, argonak said:

That's assuming that we have enough for everyone, and that the red hatters will take the vaccine.  

There needs to be a huge restriction on what you can do without proof of vaccination. Want to fly, go to a concert, cinema, sports event? Get a vaccine. 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

There needs to be a huge restriction on what you can do without proof of vaccination. Want to fly, go to a concert, cinema, sports event? Get a vaccine. 

This kind of thinking will do more harm than good. I'm telling you.

[BigFatCoward]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

This fascist-like thinking will do more harm than good. I'm telling you.

There are already countries where certain vaccines are required. And conditions put on entry to venues, how is this any different? Or fascist? 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I think you basically have 3 groups of people

1. those that want the vaccine right now.

2. Those that want the vaccine but are wary of the speed its been developed and are unsure its safe.

3. Anti Vaccers.

 

yes there are those that also can't take vaccines for medical reasons.  - for this these people are not important since they can't have the vaccine no matter what.

 

I'm not really worried about those that won't take the vaccine right now as it will be a while before supply is more than demand.  let those that want the vaccine have it first.  ie group 1.  (starting with the venerable and frontline)

 

the vaccine wary people will be gradually encouraged as they see more and more people take the vaccine without there being nasty side effects.  it is important to manage the PR here.

Once most people who are willing to take the vaccine even if a bit reluctant have had it, then worry about the rest.  

Maybe make it a requirement of attending schools if that is the same as other vaccines.   possible a requirement of getting a visa to enter the country for foerign nationals.  this should help with the flying thing and importing it.  not sure you can stop your own people from flying without as we are now getting a bit draconian even if I personally would want to.

 

[rotting sea cow]

16 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

There are already countries where certain vaccines are required. And conditions put on entry to venues, how is this any different? Or fascist?  fascist-like

I removed the gratuitous labelling. My apologies.

To the point. Broad requirements like this are not based in science but in fear and fear has never been a good adviser. Did you read the lancet article I posted in the previous thread? Here goes again https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31976-0/fulltext

To be fair, it might well be that the vaccine can stop the transmission chains, it would be fantastic but we shouldn't expect that of the current set of vaccines. They will certainly protect of severe disease, so they really protect the recipient and will help to lower the burden of the health system. 

So, what will happen when people still infect others despite having the vaccine? Will you tell them that they still cannot visit the grandma? Or should they still use masks everywhere? What will happen when an outbreak is traced back to a Quanta flight?

You cannot play with people expectations like that.

They are also still unknowns regarding the vaccine (and the disease to be fair). Remember the rushed Pandemrix flu vaccine and narcolepsy in children?

Furthermore, given that vaccination campaigns will take a long time, you will be creating to classes of individuals within a country. People will not accept that and it will create tension. How long until a government or local politicians get elected by promising getting rid of the "vaccination passports"?  As I posted  in the other thread there is already a polemic in the UK regarding the mass testing which doesn't have clear public health benefits, but it benefits certain individuals and companies.

Given the erratic, irresponsible, incompetent and even corrupt behaviour of western governments in the management of the pandemic, can we really expect that they can manage the vaccine approval, the vaccination campaigns and those "public protection regulations" adequately. My answer is no.

The focus should be in transparency and convincing the population, otherwise I only expect further troubles down the read.

 

[Filippa Eilhart]

Furthermore, given that vaccination campaigns will take a long time, you will be creating to classes of individuals within a country.

that was my worry too.

[Fragile Bird]

17 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

It's Monday and that always means gigantic reporting numbers likely.

The numbers in the US will be distorted this week because of the holiday, folks will take time off, pandemic or no pandemic.

This past weekend has seen the most airline travel since the pandemic started. Three million passengers flew, 43% of what used to be the normal number, and it’s supposed to increase all week.

Our explosion of new cases in Canada happened after the Thanksgiving holiday, so beware.

[maarsen]

3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

There are already countries where certain vaccines are required. And conditions put on entry to venues, how is this any different? Or fascist? 

Canada being one such country. If you can't show proof of vaccination, Ontario doesn't let you go to school.

[Fragile Bird]

The world’s biggest manufacturer of medical use gloves, in high demand around the world because of the pandemic, is closing half their factories because of Covid outbreaks. Top Glove, located in Malaysia, has more than 2,000 cases in it’s workforce. Like other Asian countries, most employees live in crowded dorms.

And schools aren’t sources of the virus? The biggest single school outbreak has just closed an elementary school in Windsor, Ontario, with 28 students and 8 teachers infected. And 2 others, 38 in total.

[kairparavel]

Just now, kairparavel said:

DC announced rollbacks yesterday  starting tomorrow, except for halving indoor capacity to 25%, which inexplicably starts on the 14th. 

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/mayor-bowser-announces-new-covid-19-restrictions-in-dc/2484963/

No mention of financial help to all the people (re)affected by these changes like gym staff and hospitality workers. It's just such BS that this is how we are.

Reposting this from the politics thread.

[Zorral]

"Evidence Builds That an Early Mutation Made the Pandemic Harder to Stop
Scientists were initially skeptical that a mutation made the coronavirus more contagious. But new research has changed many of their minds"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/world/covid-mutation.html?

Quote

 

....But the new evidence, from research groups in the United Kingdom and the United States, has changed the minds of many scientists who were initially skeptical.

One study found that outbreaks in communities in the United Kingdom grew faster when seeded by the 614G variant than when seeded by its Wuhan ancestor. Another reported that hamsters infected each other more quickly when exposed to the variant. And in a third, the variant infected human bronchial and nasal tissue.

Trevor Bedford, associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, said that the collection of findings from different lines of research had won him over.

“My being convinced comes from seeing the same thing repeatedly,” Dr. Bedford said. “I think at this point that it is real.”

While impressed with the new work, Dr. Bedford and other scientists said it was still unclear if an inherent advantage was the main reason for the global dominance of the variant....