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Why doesn't Varys just kill Tommen?


Alyn Oakenfist

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Nobody needs to sew dragon banners - they already have them. The entire Crownlands are Targaryen loyalists, have always been. Stokeworth will side with Aegon, considering Bronn has nothing good to expect from Tommen. Rosby, too, considering that Cersei fucked with Gyles' ward. The Crackclaw Point folk, too, and what remains from the Narrow Sea lords.

And the Kingslanders, too. It might be too subtle for some people, but the play about the lions being devoured by the dragon from the egg is clear foreshadowing what's going to happen in the city. The people will get rid of Tommen and his ilk, and replace him with Aegon.

And that will go even smoother in light of the fact that the only soldiers left to 'King Tommen' are Reach men - who are predominantly Targaryen loyalists, too. They are not Westermen who sacked the city in Tywin's and Robert's name - they are men who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident or besieged Storm's End with Mace. Some of them might even be men whose peers were cut down by Tywin's army during the Sack.

If push comes to shove they will either stand aside and let the Golden Company install Aegon as king ... or they will actively turn against Tommen and put him down.

Either way, Aegon is going to win.

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1. Tommen is relatively safe in Maegor's. He got Pycelle and Kevan because outside of Maegor's he can use the secret passages to move secretly and ambush them. He can't do that in Maegor's and it would be nigh immpossible to get the weapons and people he'd need to kill Tommen and his guards in Maegor's.

2. Tommen is simply a puppet and one who can be replaced by say Myrcella with rearranged marriage alliances to ensure the support of House Tyrell. Tommen being dead doesn't help them and may actually harm them. Kevan and Pycelle are the two main figures proping up the Lannister cause and more importantly keeping it out of Cersei's hands. Now that they are dead Cersei is the only serious Lannister leader left in the capital or well really anywhere. Cersei will promptly go on a rampage as quickly as possible against her presumed enemies. The Lannister cause will look worse and worse and Aegon will go from an obscure pretender to their best chance to get rid of Cersei quickly. It may also encourage the Tyrells to defect if the alternative is having to work with Cersei again.

3. Sparing Tommen (e.g. sending him to the Night's Watch or to be a Septon or possibly a Maester) after taking King's Landing could be a good move politically. It makes him look merciful and would serve as a sharp contrast to both Aegon's Grandfather and Robert's regime. Both got soaked in blood and by starting his reign by sparing his predecessor could encourage other lords to support him. Once he taken an oath that removes him from contesting the throne as long as Aegon doesn't totally screw things up he won't be in serious contention again. It might be a good move to win support by contrasting him with the other regimes which have taken the Iron throne.

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It's worth the effort to compare why Tommen can be allowed to live while the real Aegon of 15 years ago could not.  Tommen is living proof of the illegitimacy of Cersei's children.  It's not foolproof but good enough to cause people to doubt.  He is young enough where he can be manipulated to do anything.  He can give up claim to the throne and kneel before Aegon the Blackfyre and later on forced to marry the daughter of an ally.  Real Aegon was unfortunate b/c he was not politically useful.  RAegon was a threat to Robert's fledgling reign.  Tommen could be shaped so he isn't. 

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Let's be real Tommen is just a puppet king. Maybe part of Varys plan is to spare the boys life by having him voluntarily surrender the crown. The boy is kind enough to do it, given the right circumstances and it would pretty much destroy Cersei's plans with as little bloodshed as possible.

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19 hours ago, sifth said:

Let's be real Tommen is just a puppet king. Maybe part of Varys plan is to spare the boys life by having him voluntarily surrender the crown. The boy is kind enough to do it, given the right circumstances and it would pretty much destroy Cersei's plans with as little bloodshed as possible.

So basically the PR hit of capturing him alive and having him bend the knee to Aegon. While I agree that would help Aegon a lot, instantly severing the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and badly destabilizing the Lannisters I think would be more worth it. Then again if Varys did that we couldn't have the bloodbath of Westerosi Agincourt or whatever Cersei will do, so I guess it was necessary for the plot for Tommen to live and Kevan to die.

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4 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So basically the PR hit of capturing him alive and having him bend the knee to Aegon. While I agree that would help Aegon a lot, instantly severing the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and badly destabilizing the Lannisters I think would be more worth it. Then again if Varys did that we couldn't have the bloodbath of Westerosi Agincourt or whatever Cersei will do, so I guess it was necessary for the plot for Tommen to live and Kevan to die.

Just my own personal theory, assuming Varys is true about caring about the "good of the real" and what not. I remember something similar happening in Legend of the Galactic Heroes, which is one of my favorite book series/animes.

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5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So basically the PR hit of capturing him alive and having him bend the knee to Aegon. While I agree that would help Aegon a lot, instantly severing the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and badly destabilizing the Lannisters I think would be more worth it. Then again if Varys did that we couldn't have the bloodbath of Westerosi Agincourt or whatever Cersei will do, so I guess it was necessary for the plot for Tommen to live and Kevan to die.

Kevan was going to send Cersei back to Casterly Rock if she survived her trial. He took away all her power, that's the reason he had to be eliminated. And as far as that battle that's coming up for Storm's End, that's really not Varys's doing. It's happening because Aegon decided to listen to Tyrion and head to Westeros instead of waiting for Dany or heading to Meereen to meet her. 

If Varys had killed Tommen, then I think the person who would have succeeded him would have been Stannis, something that Varys was never keen on to begin with. 

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Kevan was going to send Cersei back to Casterly Rock if she survived her trial. He took away all her power, that's the reason he had to be eliminated. And as far as that battle that's coming up for Storm's End, that's really not Varys's doing. It's happening because Aegon decided to listen to Tyrion and head to Westeros instead of waiting for Dany or heading to Meereen to meet her. 

If Varys had killed Tommen, then I think the person who would have succeeded him would have been Stannis, something that Varys was never keen on to begin with. 

The Lannisters aren't just going to find Stannis and crown him, if Tommen dies. That would be the dumbest move in the entire series and one likely to get most of them killed. They would simply crown Myrcella and marry her, ASAP.

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50 minutes ago, sifth said:

The Lannisters aren't just going to find Stannis and crown him, if Tommen dies. That would be the dumbest move in the entire series and one likely to get most of them killed. They would simply crown Myrcella and marry her, ASAP.

The Lannisters won't. But others might. The Lannisters only have the Tyrells as their allies and even that's on shaky ground. 

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