The Night Watch deal with the Iron Bank

[Buried Treasure]

Tangentially related to the recent thread on what will Bowen Marsh do next, what will come of the deal Jon Snow secured with Tycho Nestoris?

No word of the deal could have yet reached Bravo's, but the deal was signed and the first part fulfilled with the journey of Nestoris' galley to Hardhome. And we know that the IB considers it's deals to be with the institution, not the individual, so Jon's death would not invalidate the bargain.

[Lord Lannister]

A lot depends on what happens at the Wall. If the Night's Watch goes on, they'll be responsible for the debt. If not, they'll likely just consider whoever is in charge of the Wall the successor organization to the Watch and put the debt on them. I guess it's not impossible they'd just cut their losses, but that would set bad precedent for the Bank if nothing else.

[CamiloRP]

18 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

A lot depends on what happens at the Wall. If the Night's Watch goes on, they'll be responsible for the debt. If not, they'll likely just consider whoever is in charge of the Wall the successor organization to the Watch and put the debt on them. I guess it's not impossible they'd just cut their losses, but that would set bad precedent for the Bank if nothing else.

I think the debt would go to the IT, or it could be resolved if Ned's dream for spring comes to be. 

[broken one]

If the NW survives effects of Marshes coup the money will come. Maybe it will even help, if NW spends them before the Others attack. As for problems with paying the loan back - we won't see them.  I do not expect "the summer of the instalment plan" book.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Tangentially related to the recent thread on what will Bowen Marsh do next, what will come of the deal Jon Snow secured with Tycho Nestoris?

No word of the deal could have yet reached Bravo's, but the deal was signed and the first part fulfilled with the journey of Nestoris' galley to Hardhome. And we know that the IB considers it's deals to be with the institution, not the individual, so Jon's death would not invalidate the bargain.

At the moment, the collateral has been paid but the loan has not come through yet. So technically the NW does not owe a thing. When the first shipments of food do arrive, then the loan will likely be paid off in wood: something that the NW has in abundance but is scarce and highly valued in Braavos.

But before all of this happens, I believe the Iron Bank will fail. Illyrio and LF have been plotting to get the bank to overextend itself so that they will then try to withdraw their account at the IB (funded largely from the coin that the IB loaned the crown in the first place and was subsequently embezzled by LF), which the IB won't be able to cover. This will spark a classic bank run that can wipe the bank out in a day. So in the end, the NW will get nothing.

[Azarial]

Tycho said that he viewed the NW as servants of the Iron Throne, so I agree that the reason Jon found securing the loan 'too easy' was that they were simply adding it to the IT debt, like @CamiloRP said. But can also see this being the end of the IB when the IT no longer exists and there is no one to pay the loan back. Especially given all the things @John Suburbs said about the Iron Bank being overextended and not being able to absorb the losses.

[PrettyLittlePsycho]

5 hours ago, Azarial said:

Tycho said that he viewed the NW as servants of the Iron Throne, so I agree that the reason Jon found securing the loan 'too easy' was that they were simply adding it to the IT debt, like @CamiloRP said. But can also see this being the end of the IB when the IT no longer exists and there is no one to pay the loan back. Especially given all the things @John Suburbs said about the Iron Bank being overextended and not being able to absorb the losses.

The NW is explicitely not under the rule of the IT, or anyone else.

Plus, the IT failed to pay its own dues recently, why would the IB grant somone else a loan on ITs behalf ?

[broken one]

10 hours ago, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

Plus, the IT failed to pay its own dues recently, why would the IB grant somone else a loan on ITs behalf ?

Ditto. Even if the NW may be considered as sort of the IT's "agency" it is also a separate being, has an autonomy and legal subjectivity. The Gift belongs to the NW, not to the Iron Throne, not even indirectly. Stannis tries to obtain estates from the Watch, not to execute his right as their legal owner (because he is not).

[Azarial]

17 hours ago, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

The NW is explicitely not under the rule of the IT, or anyone else.

Plus, the IT failed to pay its own dues recently, why would the IB grant somone else a loan on ITs behalf ?

Because they are granting Stannis a new loan for the IT, so clearly they are granting loans to the IT so long as it's to a new ruler. And Tycho said outright to Jon that they view the NW as servants of the IT, and Stannis was directly linked with the wall. It's not much of a leap. The fact that they view themselves as separate and choose their own leader is irrelevant. It's what the IB believes that matters.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Azarial said:

Because they are granting Stannis a new loan for the IT, so clearly they are granting loans to the IT so long as it's to a new ruler. And Tycho said outright to Jon that they view the NW as servants of the IT, and Stannis was directly linked with the wall. It's not much of a leap. The fact that they view themselves as separate and choose their own leader is irrelevant. It's what the IB believes that matters.

The problem with this is that Stannis was gone when Jon and Tycho hashed out this deal. So why would Tycho assume Stannis will make good on the NW loan? Stannis is rather rigid, so he would not be expected to pay back money that he never agreed to borrow in the first place.

The much more plausible explanation is that Jon put up the wildling treasures as collateral to secure the loan and then will pay back the balance in wood, which the NW has in abundance but is scarce and very valuable in Braavos, as Sam quickly discovered.

And the only reason Tycho agreed to any of this is because the bank's coffers are so low -- due to the suspension of payment from the IT, as well as the disruption of the slave trade -- that any infusion of cash is welcome at this point, even the meager wealth of the wildlings.

[Azarial]

25 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The problem with this is that Stannis was gone when Jon and Tycho hashed out this deal. So why would Tycho assume Stannis will make good on the NW loan? Stannis is rather rigid, so he would not be expected to pay back money that he never agreed to borrow in the first place.

The much more plausible explanation is that Jon put up the wildling treasures as collateral to secure the loan and then will pay back the balance in wood, which the NW has in abundance but is scarce and very valuable in Braavos, as Sam quickly discovered.

And the only reason Tycho agreed to any of this is because the bank's coffers are so low -- due to the suspension of payment from the IT, as well as the disruption of the slave trade -- that any infusion of cash is welcome at this point, even the meager wealth of the wildlings.

I can see what you described being one possible answer. I can also see that it would be included in IT lump debt that we see Stannis take on without asking many questions. I see it being added to the bulk debt prior to Stannis signing as a plus in their mind, since he agrees to pay all IT debt with no amendments. They know how desperate for funds he is, and his rigidity would be a plus in favor of him paying it back and they made him agreeing to pay all debts no questions asked one of their terms for giving him the money, in short he has no choice. Tycho also knows that Stannis is living at the wall, left his family at the wall in the care of Jon etc. so there are some pretty good reasons to believe he would. 

[broken one]

On 12/1/2020 at 4:34 PM, Azarial said:

Because they are granting Stannis a new loan for the IT, so clearly they are granting loans to the IT so long as it's to a new ruler. And Tycho said outright to Jon that they view the NW as servants of the IT, and Stannis was directly linked with the wall. It's not much of a leap. The fact that they view themselves as separate and choose their own leader is irrelevant. It's what the IB believes that matters.

If so, why Tycho is making deal with Jon? And why Jon worries about paying the loan back if this would be IT's debt? If I was going to lend money to a company I would not deal with chief of a single department. In the end the company's management could show me middle finger, not the money (what debt, dude?). Tycho did not say anything about kings approval. Stannis could take what he wanted from NW by force, but Stannis respects law/customs. The wood (and wilding's goods?) thing is a speculation, as far as I remember there is nothing on the topic in the text. NW is separate body, just lie a single lord in the realm, all they ever got from IT were criminals and voluntary donations (like in the times of Queen Alysanne), no regular subventions.

BTW  wood from Westeros is probably too expensive for the Braavosi because of transportation costs. If not - why nobody has been selling it? I was speculating what I would do if I was sitting on the IT to fill the treasury. One of  ideas was to establish a joint - venture with Braavosi to cut and transport wood from the haunted forest. There would be some income (possibly), moreover the problem of the forest getting to the Wall would be solved  And if the wildings would make trouble... a joint  - venture with the Lysene, why not 

[Azarial]

On 12/5/2020 at 3:02 PM, broken one said:

If so, why Tycho is making deal with Jon? And why Jon worries about paying the loan back if this would be IT's debt? If I was going to lend money to a company I would not deal with chief of a single department. In the end the company's management could show me middle finger, not the money (what debt, dude?). Tycho did not say anything about kings approval. Stannis could take what he wanted from NW by force, but Stannis respects law/customs. The wood (and wilding's goods?) thing is a speculation, as far as I remember there is nothing on the topic in the text. NW is separate body, just lie a single lord in the realm, all they ever got from IT were criminals and voluntary donations (like in the times of Queen Alysanne), no regular subventions.

BTW  wood from Westeros is probably too expensive for the Braavosi because of transportation costs. If not - why nobody has been selling it? I was speculating what I would do if I was sitting on the IT to fill the treasury. One of  ideas was to establish a joint - venture with Braavosi to cut and transport wood from the haunted forest. There would be some income (possibly), moreover the problem of the forest getting to the Wall would be solved  And if the wildings would make trouble... a joint  - venture with the Lysene, why not 

They made a deal with Jon directly because he asked. Jon thinks they are separate, so he worries about paying it back. It doesn't disprove anything. I still find this no less likely than other options. My personal original thought was that it was a loan to Jon not the NW and them killing him means they get nothing. But there are lots of options and like to consider them all.

[TedBear]

They will have to prostitute themselves to pay. Jon already suspected that he would be betrayed and had that in mind. STONKS!