US Politics: Does the fat man singing count?

[IheartIheartTesla]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Don't do this to yourself, man.

We are talking about Georgia. You might as well hope for two senate pick ups in Florida, when Rubio and Luthor are up for re-election.

No, I'm drawing a line. A line between Florida and Georgia. I am going to call it....the Georgia-Florida Line

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Slowly, but surely, we advance our secret agenda!

Indeed.  My dad was born and raised in Hayward, my mom moved there when she was a teenager, and they both graduated from Berkeley.  Zazdarovje, comrade!

[Centrist Simon Steele]

29 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Just to clarify, my country is the US. I'm a lifelong socialist who was born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area. I'm also quite aware of the sectarianism of certain elements of the socialist left. I've also spent my life in the Trade Union movement and have been a part of negotiations numerous times against very large corporations. I'm well aware of who my enemies are, and how that changes from situation to situation, in different contexts. 

We won't likely convince each other of anything, but your targeting of allies against Trump as enemies convinces me we shouldn't waste our time in further discussion. Good luck in grad school. 

 

Trump has been defeated. We voted him out. Trumpism won't be defeated through centrism. Tanden's Center for American Progress has been accused of union busting in addition to just her bullying behavior like punching journalists. So with Trump on the way out, why do I have to ally with this specific person?

[GrimTuesday]

46 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Trump has been defeated. We voted him out. Trumpism won't be defeated through centrism. Tanden's Center for American Progress has been accused of union busting in addition to just her bullying behavior like punching journalists. So with Trump on the way out, why do I have to ally with this specific person?

While I agree that centrism won't defeat Trumpism and fascism, I think that this is a battle that we need to be clear eyed about. After my initial reaction to the Tanden news, I cooled off a bit and have come around on Tanden to an extent. I still think she sucks as a person, but I think that you can't lose sight of the fact that she is a party hack who will pretty much go wherever power is concentrated and if Biden says that something is going to be a priority, she's going to make it happen. Of course, that does not mean that she is our friend, but purging Tanden and her ilk is not a priority.

Also Sam Seder brought up the point that she is better than the alternative, and frankly I'd rather have someone like Tanden who is going to do what the party wants her to do versus someone like Bruce Reed who has a ideological motivation to pull some budget hawk bull shit.

[Kalbear]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

No, it's accounting for the systemic error in the sample.  That's importantly different than expecting what will happen.  Based on both 2016 and 2020, the systemic error seems to clearly be D+2-4 overall, but YMMV.  Like I said, this is the exact same thing we do with estimating how much the Dem candidate will have to win the popular vote in order to confidently win the EC, or how large the Dems generic ballot lead will have to be to win the House, etc.

I think the 'based on 2016 and 2020' is the problem here. If Trump's on the ticket that sounds reasonable. If there's someone else though, it could be entirely accurate or entirely wrong in a very different direction. I think that these polling values were biased against Obama-level support in the midwest, and putting your thumb on the other way for Trump and not 'generic Republican' is a problem too. 

2 hours ago, DMC said:

It's not polling, it's interpreting the polling.

It's absolutely polling methodology. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

I think the 'based on 2016 and 2020' is the problem here. If Trump's on the ticket that sounds reasonable. If there's someone else though, it could be entirely accurate or entirely wrong in a very different direction.

Well sure, I just think basing it on the error in those two cycles is the best basis to go off of right now.  Obviously that will change in the future.

3 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

It's absolutely polling methodology.

No, it absolutely isn't.  I think both you and Maith are fundamentally misunderstanding what I'm talking about.  I'm talking about how to read the polling averages right now.  So, say, if Ossoff/Perdue is tied, that would mean I'd read it as Perdue has a slight advantage.  I'm not talking about pollsters actually doing this.  At all.  That'd be a horrible mistake.

[Kalbear]

Oh hey look more Georgia voter suppression

 

 

[argonak]

7 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

Oh hey look more Georgia voter suppression

 

 

Its not the behavior of the GOP that surprises me anymore, its just how blatant they are about it.  They don't even try to hide anymore.

[Kalbear]

What the actual fuck. This is one of the people who was working for Florida's COVID 'response' and who quit when she felt it had been politicized. 

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

No, I'm drawing a line. A line between Florida and Georgia. I am going to call it....the Georgia-Florida Line

Is this a reference to a dude with a baseball cap driving in his rusty old pickup to a date with someone, whom Rudy would consider too closely related for marriage turned into music (in a very broad sense).

[Week]

Re: Neera Tanden, the allegation of "punching" a journalist goes back to her pushing Faiz Shakir in the chest (who would later work has Bernie's campaign manager in 2020). Anyone trying to smear it as a "punch" or "assault" has an axe to grind coming from Bernieworld (though not Bernie) or is a Republican.

 

Note, my phone autocorrected Neera Tanden to Beers Tandem. My faculties were able to overcome such challenges, however.

[The Anti-Targ]

I feel like an state election official somewhere is going to die before this stop the steal thing is over. The election terrorists are becoming more and more extreme by the news reports I'm reading, and someone is going to go to far.

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

Trump has been defeated. We voted him out. Trumpism won't be defeated through centrism. Tanden's Center for American Progress has been accused of union busting in addition to just her bullying behavior like punching journalists. So with Trump on the way out, why do I have to ally with this specific person?

Do you want my answer?

Assuming you do, I would say two things to start. First, Trump is still in office and trying to overturn the election by illegal means. So, even his electoral defeat is not yet completed. But, secondly, assuming he leaves office on January 20th, that doesn't mean  Trumpism as an ideology is spent. Obviously we have over 74 million votes cast that prove the continuing danger it represents to this country. The struggle continues, to borrow a well worn phrase.

How one sees the importance of this, what I would call anti-fascist effort, determines the needed breadth and size of the coalition to accomplish it. How many allies one must seek, if you will, to succeed in winning against Trump and Trumpism. In the assembling of a winning coalition against fascism and fascists the dividing line of allies and opponents is not those who agree with you on every question. Constructing a winning strategy does depend on where you think that dividing line lays.

Just to be clear, allies are not necessarily the same as friends. They may be allies in one area of struggle and opponents in another. Neera Tanden, and the political forces she works with are clearly on the side of the struggle against Trump and Trumpism, and that is why she is an ally. But more than that, as a nominee of the incoming Biden administration, aiding the right-wing in trying torpedo Biden and Harris is counterproductive in assembling the people to move the government away from Trump's legacy and from Trumpism. It helps the GOP sabotage any movement for progress.

So to the point of your question in your post, you should see Tanden as an ally against the greatest political danger our nation faces. Not as a friend you would never criticize. Nor as an enemy in this political moment. 

[Week]

Sounding the alarm by Zeynep Tufekci, who has been ahead of the curve on a lot of things ... very concerning ...

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Yes, it is true various parts of the Bay Area have been characterized as the "People's Republic of [fill in the blank]." But truth be told, the GOP has the right about us San Franciscans - San Francisco politics are taking over the US. Slowly, but surely, we advance our secret agenda!

Imagine how far we've come over the last 10 or so years. Pelosi was seen as a far left San Francisco Democrat who was too liberal, but now she's a moderate centrist Dem. Lol.

[Fragile Bird]

Breaking news: retired General Lloyd Austin to be named Sec. of Defense. Gen. Austin is black.

[SFDanny]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Imagine how far we've come over the last 10 or so years. Pelosi was seen as a far left San Francisco Democrat who was too liberal, but now she's a moderate centrist Dem. Lol.

It depends on where one stands how Nancy's politics look. The political commercials of the Republicans still demonize her as a far left Democrat. Some Blue Dogs agree with them. The Left has never recognized any truth in that characterization of Pelosi's politics. I'd call her a mainstream liberal in the Roosevelt, Kennedy, and LBJ tradition. But then I live in San Francisco, and she has never seemed radical to my eyes. Extremely competent - Yes. Far left - no. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 hours ago, Week said:

Re: Neera Tanden, the allegation of "punching" a journalist goes back to her pushing Faiz Shakir in the chest (who would later work has Bernie's campaign manager in 2020). Anyone trying to smear it as a "punch" or "assault" has an axe to grind coming from Bernieworld (though not Bernie) or is a Republican.

 

Note, my phone autocorrected Neera Tanden to Beers Tandem. My faculties were able to overcome such challenges, however.

If you read Simon's link it makes it clear that it was a push, and one that she is proud of.  It's not like it was a Maxine Waters / Michael Tracey situation.

 

Neera Tanden is everything wrong with the mainstream Dems, but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that she would be involved here.  Policy-wise, she's just a more obnoxious version of anyone else we could have expected, so I'm not sure what the surprise is to the far left, or why anyone who is not in what DMC calls the 'Stupid Left' (self included), should be surprised that the 'Stupid Left' is going to let you know we don't like her.  It'd be the same thing if it was Sanders coming into the WH and he named Sirota press secretary.

Simon's link has some legit gripes with Tanden.  Also, if you're going to take shots at Simon for an autocorrect error but not someone else spelling 'Tandeen' on this page it seems like your issue is more with the author than the misspelling.

This idea that we can't criticize Biden's team is stupid but we all knew it was coming.  

@SFDannyat some point in the future we're not going to be able to use Fear of Trump as the reason we can't have nice things, every single time.  I mean Pelosi is already trying to argue that the Senate relief bill is fine even though it's less than what they could have gotten three months ago because Biden is President-Elect.  As if that helps anyone who needs to pay rent or heating bills. 

The idea that we have to defend bad outcomes because they are better than what the GOP would do is mind-boggling and fatalistic.

 And there's plenty of room to criticize Biden and Dems for inadequate policies in the meantime.  If you're constantly tacking toward the corporate interests in policy out of fear of losing an election why even bother getting re-elected?

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

16 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

It depends on where one stands how Nancy's politics look. The political commercials of the Republicans still demonize her as a far left Democrat. Some Blue Dogs agree with them. The Left has never recognized any truth in that characterization of Pelosi's politics. I'd call her a mainstream liberal in the Roosevelt, Kennedy, and LBJ tradition. But then I live in San Francisco, and she has never seemed radical to my eyes. Extremely competent - Yes. Far left - no. 

She's clearly an Ice-Cream-Nazi-Terrorist! 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

This idea that we can't criticize Biden's team is stupid but we all knew it was coming.  

I don't think people are saying you can't criticize his picks, but often times it comes across as complaining for the sake of complaining because you don't really like Biden. It's largely counterproductive.