The Flight From Dragonstone

[Mourning Star]

21 hours ago, LynnS said:

I'm not sure Walys Flowers was involved in the flight from Dragonstone.  The solft hands Dany remembers are likely her nursemaid whom she has fogotten and conflates with Willem Derry.  I think Derry is with her at some point.

Haldon Halfmaester is probably a maester who is also in disguise and doesn't wear his chain.  I think "half-maester" has something to do with parentage.  His father was a maester.  We know this is true of Walys Flowers.  

I do not think Dany has ever been on Dragonstone... nor that Rhaella birthed a living child.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Walys Flowers was at the Tower of Joy however.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

But we know she was there, Oberyn and Willem Darry made the secret pact in Braavos.

Dany is not mentioned in the wedding pact at all, it was for Viserys.

[TheLastWolf]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

If I say that someone has white skin and red eyes but don't use the word albino; does that mean they are not albino?  Bloodraven is never labelled that way and yet we know that he is by description.

The question you should be asking is: why does Martin obscure the fact that Marwyn is a dwarf by not using the word itself, by not making it obvious.  Martin's wife has said that he doesn't do obvious.  Here's an example of that.

Like @Tucu said and which you accepted as a possibility (good thing you are open to ideas unlike a few I can think of) ibbenese or Skagosi possible 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

Dany is not mentioned in the wedding pact at all, it was for Viserys.

But Willem is there. He dies there, Viserys and Dany were there with him.

Now it is entirely possible that there are two sets of  Darry, Viserys and Dany around Essos, with Dany's trio being imposters. Imposters who Varys and Illyrio gave three Dragon Eggs to and arranged to marry to one of the most powerful figures in Essos. This is all possible. But as others have said, far too convoluted given there are only two books left. 

Having both Aegon and Dany have storylines that involve them possibly being fake is just going to be a mess. An M Night Shyamalan ending would ruin the books, I give GRRM the credit to recognize this.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

I do not think Dany has ever been on Dragonstone... nor that Rhaella birthed a living child.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Walys Flowers was at the Tower of Joy however.

I think there's something to Lemongate, though I'm not convinced it necessarily means that Rhaella is not Dany's mother. If there is a parentage twist for Dany, I'm pretty confident that Lyanna is not her mother. Who are Jon's parents in your opinion? We know per comments from GRRM about the age gap between them that they are not twins, so if Lyanna is his mother in your view, did she have back to back pregnancies? If not, who are Jon's parents?

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

But Willem is there. He dies there, Viserys and Dany were there with him.

Now it is entirely possible that there are two sets of  Darry, Viserys and Dany around Essos, with Dany's trio being imposters. Imposters who Varys and Illyrio gave three Dragon Eggs to and arranged to marry to one of the most powerful figures in Essos. This is all possible. But as others have said, far too convoluted given there are only two books left. 

Having both Aegon and Dany have storylines that involve them possibly being fake is just going to be a mess. An M Night Shyamalan ending would ruin the books, I give GRRM the credit to recognize this.

I'm of the opinion that from her very first chapter Dany was intended to be someone other than Daenerys Targaryen daughter of Rhaella, and that throughout the tale details pop up which should make us question the tale we are told about her past, not the least of which being the discrepancies in her own memories. I actually don't think it would take any more time to explain this swap than it will to explain Jon's own, after all, my best guess is that they are siblings. So it's less like M Night Shamalan and more like Star Wars.

I expect Dany's chapter title to change to "Dany" at some point when she remembers who she is.

It's not just Aegon and Dany though, it's Jon, and Tyrion, and Moon boy for all I know!

25 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I think there's something to Lemongate, though I'm not convinced it necessarily means that Rhaella is not Dany's mother. If there is a parentage twist for Dany, I'm pretty confident that Lyanna is not her mother. Who are Jon's parents in your opinion? We know per comments from GRRM about the age gap between them that they are not twins, so if Lyanna is his mother in your view, did she have back to back pregnancies? If not, who are Jon's parents?

I disagree here about Lyanna. Nobody in the series (Arya included) is more like Lyanna than Dany. From being a natural horseman (with a Stark colored horse no less) to loving flowers and wearing them in her hair. She actively fulfils the prophesy of the child of ice and fire and waking dragons from stone, it all fits too well.

Best guess, Dany is Jon's little sister and while Jon was conceived at Harrenhall (providing a much more rational explanation for Lyanna's disappearance than trying to fulfil some prophesy), it was Dany that Lyanna died giving birth to. There seems to be less of an age gap issue with this timeline than if the closer to 8-9 month than a year gap meaning Jon was born at the same time as the Siege of King's Landing (9 months before Rhaella gave birth on Dragonstone). 

If we are being honest though, the textual and story reasons are far more compelling than any timeline.

The House of the Undying even starts to make sense from this perspective.

Hell, even the Star Wars parallel is hard to unsee once you notice it, from Dany seeing her own face in Rhaegar's black helm during her Dragon dream, a la Luke seeing his face in Vader's, to Rhaegar's "There must be one more," being startlingly reminiscent of Yoda's "There is another."

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And saw her brother Rhaegar, mounted on a stallion as black as his armor. Fire glimmered red through the narrow eye slit of his helm. "The last dragon," Ser Jorah's voice whispered faintly. "The last, the last." Dany lifted his polished black visor. The face within was her own.

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys IX

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

16 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I'm of the opinion that from her very first chapter Dany was intended to be someone other than Daenerys Targaryen daughter of Rhaella, and that throughout the tale details pop up which should make us question the tale we are told about her past, not the least of which being the discrepancies in her own memories. I actually don't think it would take any more time to explain this swap than it will to explain Jon's own, after all, my best guess is that they are siblings. So it's less like M Night Shamalan and more like Star Wars.

I expect Dany's chapter title to change to "Dany" at some point when she remembers who she is.

It's not just Aegon and Dany though, it's Jon, and Tyrion, and Moon boy for all I know!

I disagree here about Lyanna. Nobody in the series (Arya included) is more like Lyanna than Dany. From being a natural horseman (with a Stark colored horse no less) to loving flowers and wearing them in her hair. She actively fulfils the prophesy of the child of ice and fire and waking dragons from stone, it all fits too well.

Best guess, Dany is Jon's little sister and while Jon was conceived at Harrenhall (providing a much more rational explanation for Lyanna's disappearance than trying to fulfil some prophesy), it was Dany that Lyanna died giving birth to. There seems to be less of an age gap issue with this timeline than if the closer to 8-9 month than a year gap meaning Jon was born at the same time as the Siege of King's Landing (9 months before Rhaella gave birth on Dragonstone). 

If we are being honest though, the textual and story reasons are far more compelling than any timeline.

The House of the Undying even starts to make sense from this perspective.

Hell, even the Star Wars parallel is hard to unsee once you notice it, from Dany seeing her own face in Rhaegar's black helm during her Dragon dream, a la Luke seeing his face in Vader's, to Rhaegar's "There must be one more," being startlingly reminiscent of Yoda's "There is another."

 

If Jon was conceived at Harrenhal he'd be more than a year older than Robb. Any pretense that Robb was older would be ridiculous. There's also a SSM where Martin expressed an uncertainty off the top of his head that's difficult to square with any theory where Lyanna got pregnant at Harrenhal.

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When was the year of the false spring?

Don't have my references to hand, but it was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2003/04

The year of the false spring is of course the year that the Tourney at Harrenhal took place. If Martin's story involved Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal and running away because of it, how could he possibly think it could ever be two years before Robert's Rebellion started? It's one thing to not have the exact details of a timeline hashed out in your mind. But in this scenario, the close proximity of the Rebellion to the Tourney is of the utmost importance to the story, there's no way you'd forget that it couldn't possibly be more than one year before the year the Rebellion started.

I also think it's difficult to square this scenario with Ned Stark's character or his thoughts in AGOT.

Rhaegar's "there must be one more" line was said to Elia after Aegon's birth. How does this point towards him fathering Jon and Daenerys in separate pregnancies?

 

 

[LynnS]

17 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

And saw her brother Rhaegar, mounted on a stallion as black as his armor. Fire glimmered red through the narrow eye slit of his helm. "The last dragon," Ser Jorah's voice whispered faintly. "The last, the last." Dany lifted his polished black visor. The face within was her own.

I think of this as Dany's Vader-ish moment.  In which case Rhaegar would be Dany's father, rather than her brother.

The vision of Rhaegar in the HoU where he looks at someone in the doorway and says there must be one more; he could be addressing one of Elia's handmaidens.  That puts me in mind of Ashera especially since Selmy thinks Dany looks like Ashera's daughter.

I also think that Rhaegar "the lovestruck prince" fell in love with Ashera at the tourney and not Lyanna.  So if he was in a hurry, I would put Dany's birth at about nine months after Aegon and born on Dragonstone. That is if the prophecy of being born in a place of salt and smoke means anything.

We're talking about a Vader-ish moment according to Alfie Allen.  I think Jon's moment would come if he discovers that his mother is Lyanna and still thinks Ned is his father.  There's the brother-sister connection.  It would be quite a shock to know that you are a bastard and a product of incest.   

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If Jon was conceived at Harrenhal he'd be more than a year older than Robb. Any pretense that Robb was older would be ridiculous. There's also a SSM where Martin expressed an uncertainty off the top of his head that's difficult to square with any theory where Lyanna got pregnant at Harrenhal.

Yes, I think Cat is willfully ignorant of the age gap... in fact she basically has to be, although no one else seems to be.

Even Maester Luwin makes the odd comment about bastards growing up faster, but more importantly every rumor of Jon's conception places it well before Rob (except for Cat's explicitly uniformed opinion). Even the rumor in Winterfell about Ashara Dayne places the conception at Harrenhall:

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"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

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https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2003/04

The year of the false spring is of course the year that the Tourney at Harrenhal took place. If Martin's story involved Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal and running away because of it, how could he possibly think it could ever be two years before Robert's Rebellion started? It's one thing to not have the exact details of a timeline hashed out in your mind. But in this scenario, the close proximity of the Rebellion to the Tourney is of the utmost importance to the story, there's no way you'd forget that it couldn't possibly be more than one year before the year the Rebellion started.

I can't speak to a nearly two decade old quote, but we now know it was not multiple years before the conflict. In fact it was only a few months from the tourney to Lyanna's disappearance, about as long as one could possibly keep a pregnancy a secret.

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The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

The World of Ice and Fire - The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring

 

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I also think it's difficult to square this scenario with Ned Stark's character or his thoughts in AGOT.

Counterpoint, between Ned thinking of promises kept to broken promises is when Varys tells him the assassin has already been sent after Dany.

And Ned details to Cersei basically exactly what he would do with a child who's coloring makes them a target for Robert's wrath because of their parentage.

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"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."
"Exile," she said. "A bitter cup to drink from."
"A sweeter cup than your father served Rhaegar's children," Ned said, "and kinder than you deserve. Your father and your brothers would do well to go with you. Lord Tywin's gold will buy you comfort and hire swords to keep you safe. You shall need them. I promise you, no matter where you flee, Robert's wrath will follow you, to the back of beyond if need be."

A Game of Thrones - Eddard XII

I think exile, the bitter cup, is the "cup of ice" referenced in The House of The Undying.

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Rhaegar's "there must be one more" line was said to Elia after Aegon's birth. How does this point towards him fathering Jon and Daenerys in separate pregnancies?

Was it said to Elia? That seems far from clear to me, and hardly impacts the point. I actually think the fact that Dany recognizes and identifies Rhaegar (but not Aerys) is indicative of him being her father in itself.

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"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.
"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way.

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV

Have you seen Star Wars? Part of what makes this so reminiscent is the pseudo-breaking of the fourth wall going on. But obviously, this is just my take.

[Mourning Star]

17 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I think of this as Dany's Vader-ish moment.  In which case Rhaegar would be Dany's father, rather than her brother.

The vision of Rhaegar in the HoU where he looks at someone in the doorway and says there must be one more; he could be addressing one of Elia's handmaidens.  That puts me in mind of Ashera especially since Selmy thinks Dany looks like Ashera's daughter.

I also think that Rhaegar "the lovestruck prince" fell in love with Ashera at the tourney and not Lyanna.  So if he was in a hurry, I would put Dany's birth at about nine months after Aegon and born on Dragonstone. That is if the prophecy of being born in a place of salt and smoke means anything.

We're talking about a Vader-ish moment according to Alfie Allen.  I think Jon's moment would come if he discovers that his mother is Lyanna and still thinks Ned is his father.  There's the brother-sister connection.  It would be quite a shock to know that you are a bastard and a product of incest.   

Ok, if I'm really speculating wildly...

I suspect the prophesy of the prince who was promised (or dragon who was promised) will be fulfilled by three individuals in three different ways, the three heads of the dragon.

The Tower of Joy is easy to see as a place of salt and smoke, and Ser Dayne was a bleeding star, but there are plenty of options that fit this. Dany waking dragons from stone being the most obvious.

I wasn't familiar with the Alfie Allen quote... but it does look like it makes sense with what I'm saying.

I think Dany got her father's coat of arms while Jon will get the sword.

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Jon shrugged. "Girls get the arms but not the swords. Bastards get the swords but not the arms. I did not make the rules, little sister."

A Game of Thrones - Arya I

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

26 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Yes, I think Cat is willfully ignorant of the age gap... in fact she basically has to be, although no one else seems to be.

Why would Ned try to pass Jon off as being more than a year younger than he actually is in the first place? And remember that Robert also believes Ned conceived Jon after marrying Cat, why would he make such a dumb and obviously BS lie to the person he most needs to believe it? Yes, he may not have expected Robert to see Jon as a little kid ever, but all it takes is Robert hearing about how Ned Stark's bastard is obviously way older than his trueborn son, or an unexpected visit to Winterfell for the lie to fall apart and set off unwanted questions that are completely avoidable. I think Ned would also realize that it's much less likely people would suspect the baby of being Lyanna's if it was over a year old versus if it was born right around the time Ned visited the ToJ.

26 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Even Maester Luwin makes the odd comment about bastards growing up faster, but more importantly every rumor of Jon's conception places it well before Rob (except for Cat's explicitly uniformed opinion). Even the rumor in Winterfell about Ashara Dayne places the conception at Harrenhall:

"Bastards grow up faster" is not an acceptable justification for a baby well over a year old being passed off as younger than a newborn. The only concrete rumor about Jon's conception is the fisherman's daughter story in the Vale. There's no reason to give the story any weight, and there's no reason to believe the people propagating it are basing it off of their estimation of Jon Snow's age or his age relative to Robb Stark, neither of whom they've ever met. Harwin's quote does not mention anything about Jon, and he doesn't even believe the story. Catelyn's recollections of the rumors about Ashara Dayne say nothing about Jon being conceived at Harrenhal. To the extent we're giving Winterfell gossip any credence, we don't know what the full story there was. It's probable there were various uninformed and baseless rumors going around, unlikely there was just one version to begin with. And it's entirely possible that at least some of them believed Ned and Ashara started a romance at Harrenhal and later met up to conceive Jon. Or that they just didn't think about Jon's age relative to Robb's at all in coming up with rumors that we know are not true. 

My point about the SSM quote about the false spring is that whether or not he ultimately ended up putting the Tourney at Harrenhal at a place in time where it could kinda sort maybe fit this theory, it is impossible for me to believe he ever could have thought it might have been two years earlier. Lyanna's "abduction" by Rhaegar is essentially the domino that sets the major events of the backstory and ultimately the story in motion. In this scenario Jon and Dany's parentage is probably the biggest twist in the story. If he was planning on Lyanna running off because she got pregnant with Jon at Harrenhal, it would be very, very easy to remember that the year of the false spring could not have possibly been any further back than the year immediately preceding the start of Robert's Rebellion. That he was unclear on the timeline to this extent indicates clearly to me that the size of the gap in time between the tourney and Lyanna's disappearance is not nearly as important as it would be under the R + L = J & D theory.

There'd be a lot more than there is in AGOT if Ned thought his niece was going to die, I'm sorry.

Whether the line was technically said "to" Elia or someone out of the field of vision, GRRM has confirmed that it is Rhaegar and Elia in that scene, after Aegon's birth.  I'm very familiar with Star Wars, and I just don't get the comparison here at all. How does "there must be one more" point to two additional pregnancies?

If Rhaegar is Dany's father, I think Ashara Dayne is a much more likely mother.

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Why would Ned try to pass Jon off as being more than a year younger than he actually is in the first place? And remember that Robert also believes Ned conceived Jon after marrying Cat, why would he make such a dumb and obviously BS lie to the person he most needs to believe it? Yes, he may not have expected Robert to see Jon as a little kid ever, but all it takes is Robert hearing about how Ned Stark's bastard is obviously way older than his trueborn son, or an unexpected visit to Winterfell for the lie to fall apart and set off unwanted questions that are completely avoidable. I think Ned would also realize that it's much less likely people would suspect the baby of being Lyanna's if it was over a year old versus if it was born right around the time Ned visited the ToJ.

I'm not sure where you are getting this about Robert...

But, the whole story about Jon springs from wanting to deceive Robert first and foremost.

It's not even clear how old Jon and Rob were when Cat got to Winterfell. 

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"Bastards grow up faster" is not an acceptable justification for a baby well over a year old being passed off as younger than a newborn. The only concrete rumor about Jon's conception is the fisherman's daughter story in the Vale. There's no reason to give the story any weight, and there's no reason to believe the people propagating it are basing it off of their estimation of Jon Snow's age or his age relative to Robb Stark, neither of whom they've ever met. Harwin's quote does not mention anything about Jon, and he doesn't even believe the story. Catelyn's recollections of the rumors about Ashara Dayne say nothing about Jon being conceived at Harrenhal. To the extent we're giving Winterfell gossip any credence, we don't know what the full story there was. It's probable there were various uninformed and baseless rumors going around, unlikely there was just one version to begin with. And it's entirely possible that at least some of them believed Ned and Ashara started a romance at Harrenhal and later met up to conceive Jon. Or that they just didn't think about Jon's age relative to Robb's at all in coming up with rumors that we know are not true. 

As quoted above, the rumor in Winterfell was that Jon was Ashara's child conceived at Harrenhall.

The Fisherman's daughter rumor also makes Jon way older than Rob.

Only Cat seems to think otherwise, and she doesn't even have a potential version of event to postulate about. 

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My point about the SSM quote about the false spring is that whether or not he ultimately ended up putting the Tourney at Harrenhal at a place in time where it could kinda sort maybe fit this theory, it is impossible for me to believe he ever could have thought it might have been two years earlier. Lyanna's "abduction" by Rhaegar is essentially the domino that sets the major events of the backstory and ultimately the story in motion. In this scenario Jon and Dany's parentage is probably the biggest twist in the story. If he was planning on Lyanna running off because she got pregnant with Jon at Harrenhal, it would be very, very easy to remember that the year of the false spring could not have possibly been any further back than the year immediately preceding the start of Robert's Rebellion. That he was unclear on the timeline to this extent indicates clearly to me that the size of the gap in time between the tourney and Lyanna's disappearance is not nearly as important as it would be under the R + L = J & D theory.

I disagree. How long was it from when Lyanna ran off to the start of the war? Still unclear. Hell, the quotes in game of thrones make it seem like the war lasted less than a year anyway.

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The war had raged for close to a year.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard II

We still don't have a coherent timeline, so speculating based on twenty year old quotes seems rash at best, especially when we now know it wasn't anywhere near two years before. Hell it could just be a miss quote or misstatement, and he even says he doesn't know.

The fact is there are timeline issues however you cut it, and Cat seems the most obvious unreliable narrator when it come to Jon.

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There'd be a lot more than there is in AGOT if Ned thought his niece was going to die, I'm sorry.

Maybe... maybe not, I think there is quite a bit as it is.... Obviously, I'm inclined to disagree with you and it seems like an arbitrary line to draw in the sand. 

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"Treachery was a coin the Targaryens knew well," Robert said. The anger was building in him again. "Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it."
"You were not there," Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. "There was no honor in that conquest."
"The Others take your honor!" Robert swore. "What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon's honor!"
"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard II

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Whether the line was technically said "to" Elia or someone out of the field of vision, GRRM has confirmed that it is Rhaegar and Elia in that scene, after Aegon's birth.  I'm very familiar with Star Wars, and I just don't get the comparison here at all. How does "there must be one more" point to two additional pregnancies?

If Rhaegar is Dany's father, I think Ashara Dayne is a much more likely mother.

We know there were at least two additional pregnancies… is that even being debated? Do you really not think Jon and Dany are two heads of the dragon?

And still, it is the parallels between Dany and Lyanna that convince me more than Star War's references, I just think that helps explain the scene.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

2 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I'm not sure where you are getting this about Robert...

In AGOT, Roberts asks Ned about the name of his bastard's mother (Ned says "Wylla"). Their conversation makes it clear Robert believes Jon was conceived after Ned married Cat. He says that Ned scarcely knew Cat at the time and shouldn't be so hard on himself.

3 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

As quoted above, the rumor in Winterfell was that Jon was Ashara's child conceived at Harrenhall.

Please cite where exactly in your quote it says that Jon Snow as conceived at Harrenhal. Not that Ned and Ashara may have hooked up at Harrenhal, but where it says that Jon was conceived there.

4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

The Fisherman's daughter rumor also makes Jon way older than Rob.

Nowhere near as older as the Harrenhal theory, and I already addressed this. Nobody in the Three Sisters has ever met Jon Snow or Robb Stark, let alone saw them as babies. There's absolutely no reason to believe that this clearly baseless rumor is informed by any sort of educated guess about their relative ages (or that this is a consideration at all to those propagating the theory). And again, why would Ned try to pass off Jon as being more than a year younger than he actually was? It makes the lie riskier, it does more damage to his marriage, and accepted at face value it makes it much more likely that people would be inclined to think the baby was Lyanna's.

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I disagree. How long was it from when Lyanna ran off to the start of the war? Still unclear. Hell, the quotes in game of thrones make it seem like the war lasted less than a year anyway.

Even at the most generous interpretation of two years prior, that the tourney at Harrenhal occurred at the very end of one year, and the Rebellion began at the very beginning of two calendar years later, that is not a plausible timeline. And again, it's one thing for Martin to not have exact details hashed out. It's way less believable that he could have thought a gap of over a year between Harrenhal and the start of the Rebellion was plausible if his entire story hinged on a pregnant Lyanna running off with Rhaegar. There's two options here: either A) Martin got so confused he didn't realize this was completely implausible when giving that answer or b) your theory is wrong. Option B is a lot more likely to me than Option A. 

It doesn't require Dany to be his niece to think that Ned would be still disgusted by the sack of KL 14 years later. In fact, there's no reason to think the two would ever be connected at all. We know Ned was disgusted at the time, before he had found Lyanna.

[LynnS]

7 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

How long was it from when Lyanna ran off to the start of the war? Still unclear. Hell, the quotes in game of thrones make it seem like the war lasted less than a year anyway.

This is derailing the OP  Have you considered that it was Ned who hid Lyanna with Howland'shelp?  When Brandon gets the message that sends him rushing off the KL; Hoster Tlully calls him a 'gallant fool'.  Which tells me that he knew the contents of the message.  How long would it take Hoster to pass that information to Ned especially since Brandon is charged with treason and Rickard is summoned to KL. What is Ned's next move?  Wouldn't it be to hide Lyanna with Howland's help?  And tell absolutely nobody including Robert?  All Robert knows is that Lyanna disappeared and isn't it likely that he would blame Rhaegar since he wasn't at KL when Brandon arrived to call him out? Robert is the originator of the kidnap/rape story.

What could be the contents of the message that would get Brandon's wolf blood into a boil.  A matter of honor maybe?  Could it have anything to do with the rumor that Ashera Dayne was dishonored by some man at Harrenhal?  Was Brandon accused in a ploy to attack the Starks.

This makes more sense to me than the kidnap/rape, elopement, run away, love story.  Especially since Brandon doesn't say a thing about Lyanna when he calls out Rhaegar. 

   

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

4 minutes ago, LynnS said:

When Brandon gets the message that sends him rushing off the KL; Hoster Tlully calls him a 'gallant fool'.  Which tells me that he knew the contents of the message.

How? This is the passage from the books:

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"He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. It was a rash thing to do." She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was what he called Brandon.

So even setting aside the fact that Catelyn ties it to Lyanna, she says that her father raged when the news was brought to Riverrun. There's no indication Hoster has any more insight than anybody else. Gallant fool is an apt term to describe Brandon's actions under the Lyanna story, so I don't see how it points towards an alternate explanation.

7 minutes ago, LynnS said:

How long would it take Hoster to pass that information to Ned especially since Brandon is charged with treason and Rickard is summoned to KL. What is Ned's next move?  Wouldn't it be to hide Lyanna with Howland's help? 

Why would Ned think Lyanna was in danger if the message had nothing to do with her? How would Ned or Howland be in a position to hide her? Where did they hide her? Where did Ned find her, and how did she die?

8 minutes ago, LynnS said:

All Robert knows is that Lyanna disappeared and isn't it likely that he would blame Rhaegar since he wasn't at KL when Brandon arrived to call him out? 

Incidentally, where was Rhaegar this entire time? Why was he MIA for months until after Hightower went to get him following the Battle of the Bells? Why were the 3 KG left behind?

9 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Robert is the originator of the kidnap/rape story.

There is absolutely no indication that's the case

9 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Especially since Brandon doesn't say a thing about Lyanna when he calls out Rhaegar. 

We do not have any sort of play by play description or dialogue from Brandon's arrival at the Red Keep. All Jaime says is that Brandon got locked up for demanding that Rhaegar come out and die. Assuming from this single line summarizing the incident that Brandon never said anything about Lyanna is a massive leap.

[Mourning Star]

20 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

In AGOT, Roberts asks Ned about the name of his bastard's mother (Ned says "Wylla"). Their conversation makes it clear Robert believes Jon was conceived after Ned married Cat. He says that Ned scarcely knew Cat at the time and shouldn't be so hard on himself.

Which makes sense since the entire tale about Jon's birth was created for Robert's benefit... 

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Please cite where exactly in your quote it says that Jon Snow as conceived at Harrenhal. Not that Ned and Ashara may have hooked up at Harrenhal, but where it says that Jon was conceived there.

You don't have to conclude that a conversation about Jon's birth resulting in an household retainer retelling a rumor about Ned sleeping with Ashara is drawing a connection then I don't know what to tell you... I don't believe the rumor, but there is almost certainly a shred of truth to it.

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"I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

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Nowhere near as older as the Harrenhal theory, and I already addressed this. Nobody in the Three Sisters has ever met Jon Snow or Robb Stark, let alone saw them as babies. There's absolutely no reason to believe that this clearly baseless rumor is informed by any sort of educated guess about their relative ages (or that this is a consideration at all to those propagating the theory). And again, why would Ned try to pass off Jon as being more than a year younger than he actually was? It makes the lie riskier, it does more damage to his marriage, and accepted at face value it makes it much more likely that people would be inclined to think the baby was Lyanna's.

I highly doubt the Fisherman's daughter rumor is baseless... nor do I think people are activly comparing baby ages to try and find offspring they don't know exist. We know there is a mystery, the characters in the story do not. It suits Cat most of all to believe Jon is younger than Rob.

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Even at the most generous interpretation of two years prior, that the tourney at Harrenhal occurred at the very end of one year, and the Rebellion began at the very beginning of two calendar years later, that is not a plausible timeline. And again, it's one thing for Martin to not have exact details hashed out. It's way less believable that he could have thought a gap of over a year between Harrenhal and the start of the Rebellion was plausible if his entire story hinged on a pregnant Lyanna running off with Rhaegar. There's two options here: either A) Martin got so confused he didn't realize this was completely implausible when giving that answer or b) your theory is wrong. Option B is a lot more likely to me than Option A. 

The False Spring lasted less than two months and it was snowing by the start of the year in 282, when Rhaegar was already absent from Dragonstone.

The War is over before the end of 283.

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It doesn't require Dany to be his niece to think that Ned would be still disgusted by the sack of KL 14 years later. In fact, there's no reason to think the two would ever be connected at all. We know Ned was disgusted at the time, before he had found Lyanna.

The conversation this quote is from is about Dany and it's the same quote where the whole war appears to have lasted less than a year.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that the length of the war grew in the telling and so did the baby age gap.

[Mourning Star]

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Starlight and seafoam, Dany thought, a wisp of silk that leaves my left breast bare for Daario's delight. Oh, and flowers for my hair. When first they met, the captain brought her flowers every day, all the way from Yunkai to Meereen. "Bring the grey linen gown with the pearls on the bodice. Oh, and my white lion's pelt." She always felt safer wrapped in Drogo's lionskin.

A Dance with Dragons - Daenerys IV

Just because I think this comparison is fantastic... We see Dany dress up for Daario in Stark colors with flowers in her hair, then Barristan compares them directly to Lyanna and Rhaegar.

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"She will weep and tear her hair and curse the Yunkai'i. Not us. No blood on our hands. You can comfort her. Tell her some tale of the old days, she likes those. Poor Daario, her brave captain … she will never forget him, no … but better for all of us if he is dead, yes? Better for Daenerys too."
Better for Daenerys, and for Westeros. Daenerys Targaryen loved her captain, but that was the girl in her, not the queen. Prince Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna, and thousands died for it. Daemon Blackfyre loved the first Daenerys, and rose in rebellion when denied her. Bittersteel and Bloodraven both loved Shiera Seastar, and the Seven Kingdoms bled. The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses. All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love, in defiance of their father's wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had himself followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies where he might have had fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire, and grief.

A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

 

[Moiraine Sedai]

The four men with Willem were never mentioned.  I would doubt if they came from prominent families.  I would liken them to Dunk and Davos. Men who lacked formal education but who were nonetheless very noble.  

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

5 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Which makes sense since the entire tale about Jon's birth was created for Robert's benefit... 

 

Why would he lie that Jon was more than a year younger than actually was? How is that for Robert's benefit?

6 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

You don't have to conclude that a conversation about Jon's birth resulting in an household retainer retelling a rumor about Ned sleeping with Ashara is drawing a connection then I don't know what to tell you... I don't believe the rumor, but there is almost certainly a shred of truth to it.

The conversation was not about Jon's birth. Ned Dayne told Arya that Wylla was Jon's mother. Arya was bothered by the idea that her father loved someone other than her mother, she did not think Ashara was Jon's mother.  Furthermore, I doubt there's any truth to the Ned-Ashara rumors. Every source of it is extremely dubious and second/third hand, and Ned literally doesn't think of Ashara once in AGOT, not when Cersei throws her name in his face, and not when he reflects on the Tourney at Harrenhal in the Black Cells.

10 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I highly doubt the Fisherman's daughter rumor is baseless... nor do I think people are activly comparing baby ages to try and find offspring they don't know exist.

The story of Ned crossing the sea there may be true, the idea that he potentially impregnated a fisherman's daughter in doing so is obviously bogus. And the second part of your sentence is exactly my point. The fisherman's daughter story is not evidence that Jon is older than Robb for precisely the reason you lay out.

12 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

The False Spring lasted less than two months and it was snowing by the start of the year in 282, when Rhaegar was already absent from Dragonstone.

The War is over before the end of 283.

Again, the actual timeline isn't the point. The point is that it is implausible to believe that George could have ever thought the year of the false spring might have been two years before Robert's Rebellion if his entire story swung on Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal and running away, leading to Robert's Rebellion. The odds of him getting confused on something so incredibly basic and integral to the story are a lot lower than the odds of a fan theory being wrong.

 

[Mourning Star]

22 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

The conversation was not about Jon's birth. Ned Dayne told Arya that Wylla was Jon's mother. Arya was bothered by the idea that her father loved someone other than her mother, she did not think Ashara was Jon's mother.  Furthermore, I doubt there's any truth to the Ned-Ashara rumors. Every source of it is extremely dubious and second/third hand, and Ned literally doesn't think of Ashara once in AGOT, not when Cersei throws her name in his face, and not when he reflects on the Tourney at Harrenhal in the Black Cells.

It doesn't take much of a leap to read between the lines there... talking about Ned having a bastard and loving a woman out of wedlock in the same conversation. But in both this and the fisherman case you seem to be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Just because we don't believe Jon is the son of Ashara or a fisherman's daughter doesn't mean there is no truth to those rumors. 

The fisherman's daughter was almost certainly not a fisherman's daughter, for instance. But that doesn't mean Ned didn't sneak to the north in the company of a pregnant woman.

So when we hear a tale from a member of the Winterfell Staff, it stands to reason it is the same story Cat heard from the Winterfell rumors.

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Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles. And if his seed quickened, she expected he would see to the child's needs.
He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence.
That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn II

22 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Again, the actual timeline isn't the point. The point is that it is implausible to believe that George could have ever thought the year of the false spring might have been two years before Robert's Rebellion if his entire story swung on Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal and running away, leading to Robert's Rebellion. The odds of him getting confused on something so incredibly basic and integral to the story are a lot lower than the odds of a fan theory being wrong.

Either your point is about the timeline or it's not... I'm not really sure what your argument is at this point.

Given that the Tourney at Harrenhall was about two years before the end of Robert's Rebelion I have to assume that's what GRRM meant all those years ago.

However, I'm always going to put more stock in the text than random ancient transcriptions of quotes where an author says he needs to check his notes.

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

15 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

It doesn't take much of a leap to read between the lines there... talking about Ned having a bastard and loving a woman out of wedlock in the same conversation.

It's two different conversations, one with Ned, and one with Harwin. Harwin does not talk about Ned Stark having a bastard at all. And given that he doesn't even believe the story, there's no reason to think that he believes Jon Snow was conceived then and there.

I didn't say that I don't believe the Ned-Ashara rumors just because Jon isn't their son. I said that I don't believe them because none of the sources are credible at all and Ned does not think of Ashara at all in AGOT. And given that the Three Sisters story involves Ned knocking up the girl, she clearly wasn't pregnant, or at least noticeably so, at the time. IMO it's much more likely that someone heard about Ned having a bastard and came up with a story that involved their tiny little remote location.

As I said in an earlier post, there probably wasn't just one single unified story about Ned and Ashara going around. The whole thing, as per Catelyn's recollections (which say nothing about Harrenhal, and apparently didn't negate her belief that Jon was younger than Robb) seems to have resulted from Ned going to Starfall and coming home with a baby, with Ashara committing suicide shortly after. There is absolutely no reason, IMO, to think the rumors that sprouted from that involved informed speculation about the exact conception date at the tourney at Harrenhal, taking into account Jon's relative age with Robb. 

Someone once brought up the question of Jon's age in context of the Ashara rumors to GRRM, implying that Catelyn should have realized that they were implausible if Jon was the same age or younger than Robb (or alternately that Jon was much older than she thought), given the date of Harrenhal. GRRM replied by emphasizing that Ashara was not nailed to the floor at Starfall during the Rebellion and could travel. N + A = J theorists like to cite that as support for their theory. I obviously don't buy that, but I think it's pretty clear evidence that GRRM himself does not believe that N + A = J requires a Harrenhal conception date.

My point is about George's idea of what was possible in his timeline, not the exact details of the timeline we ultimately got years later. If your theory is true, it requires George to have forgotten that the year of the false spring couldn't possibly have been 2 years before the start of Robert's Rebellion (his response specifically says the start, so your theory that he was talking about the ending is not true), even though the relative timing of those events would have been of the utmost importance in his narrative. You can keep saying that it doesn't matter because it was 20 years ago, but in a series that was conceived 30 years ago and had 3 books out when he made those comments, that doesn't mean much. This should not have been remotely confusing to GRRM if his story entailed Lyanna getting pregnant at Harrenhal. It's much easier to imagine him getting confused on that if the gap in time between Harrenhal and the Rebellion isn't very important, which it isn't if you do not believe Lyanna got pregnant there.