Win the WOTFK (Robb)

[James Steller]

10 hours ago, Rondo said:

Stark + Baratheon = the ruin of both houses

The Starks dating back from the time of Rickard Stark should mind their own business and keep their noses (and long chins) in the north.  They should have never arranged to make Lyanna marry Robert.  Sansa should never have been engaged to Joffrey.  Robb should not have married Jeyne.  The Starks should remain in the north.  Ice melts in the south.  Some tragedy would befall both families if they had joined forces with Stannis.  It could have something to do with the Valyrian blood in the Baratheons and the blood of the Others in the Starks.  Fire melts ice.  Ice smothers fire.  They need to stay away from each other.  

How do you explain Bran the Builder helping Durran Godsgrief to construct Storm’s End?

[The Young Maester]

21 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

That was an extra advantage, but if Robert would have taken the throne in the same way but without having Targ blood he would have been king anyway, and no one could have argued that. Ned intended to leave Aegon and Rhaenys, so Robert wouldn't be Aerys's heir at that point. And Viserys and Dany did live! and little people cared about it. Robert was king by right of conquest.

Robert wasnt the leader of the rebellion until the trident. Their were 4 great lords of equal status with most likely Jon Arryn taking the helm. One thing to remember is that Robert told Ned he shouldn’t have been king, but Ned responds by telling him he had the better claim. It is very likely everyone sat down and decided to speak on who to make king. Viserys and any Targaryen was a no go and they instead went with whomever was next in line and that was Robert.

If Jon Arryn had the better claim he would have been made king instead. 

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Robert wasnt the leader of the rebellion until the trident. Their were 4 great lords of equal status with most likely Jon Arryn taking the helm. One thing to remember is that Robert told Ned he shouldn’t have been king, but Ned responds by telling him he had the better claim. It is very likely everyone sat down and decided to speak on who to make king. Viserys and any Targaryen was a no go and they instead went with whomever was next in line and that was Robert.

If Jon Arryn had the better claim he would have been made king instead. 

Yes, I agree, but if Robert wouldn't have been part of the rebellion, then someone else would have been king, regardless of the better claim.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

On 12/8/2020 at 2:30 AM, Loose Bolt said:

Pedigree matters and so there is a possibility that Cerwyns would not not have enough of that to command houses with better pedigree like Boltons and Umbers who were petty kings. So it is possible that Medger Cerwyn would not have enough authority to command or at least some lords with better pedigree would have challenged his orders anytime that they disagreed with those orders.

House Cerwyn are listed as being among the most powerful houses in the North, and given their significant presence in both Robb's army and the army which besieges Theon in Winterfell, I wouldn't discount their position. Besides, Roose and Greatjon would be with Robb anyway, so there's no authority lost.

It just baffles me to no end that the Northmen thought they could win the battle after a night march, giving away their element of surprise, and then giving up their high ground to charge an army which they surely can see has a lot of cavalry ready to charge them. 

Imagine if a competent lord had taken charge, or rather, a lord who wasn't so clearly trying to lose. The Northmen could have taken their time and rested themselves, since Tywin's army is convinced that the entire Northern army is in front of them anyway, so an extra night's delay only benefits Robb. Then they take the high ground, and form a shield wall. It becomes the Battle of Hastings, except that the infantry army are only trying to distract and delay, so they can stand behind their shields as long as they can manage. Tywin wouldn't have taken nearly as many casualties in that scenario, plus he'd have still been hoodwinked into leaving Jaime to Robb's ambush.

On 12/8/2020 at 1:11 AM, TsarGrey said:

First, Stafford's army. It may be mostly untrained, but there are those 4k left from the battle of the Camps. If Oxcross doesn't happen, either that whole army or a part of it may turn relevant.

Second, the Tyrells. Even if Tywin gets tied up, they have the power to save King's Landing alone. I would suggest two measures: first, open the negotiations with them, suggesting a marriage between Marg and Edmure. Should that fail or be not enough, one should be prepared to try and delay Tywin from linking up with them and simultaneously seek to burn the Tyrell barges at Tumbler's Falls or otherwise delay them. I'll put the Blackfish forward for that job. Relevant quote, ASoS Catelyn II.

Third, the communication with Stannis. Tyrion sends the mountain clans to the kingswood, so account for them. Besides that, the ravens and couriers (from Riverrun) will travel over the warzone which Tywin's raiding parties are or at least recently were burning and which will soon see a lot of movement if the Tyrells move north to the Blackwater Rush to link up with Tywin. The crownlands of course are in enemy hands too. Still, given that the Blackfish was able to send spies to the westerlands, and rivermen have the home turf advantage, it's hardly hopeless, and one could also send messages by the sea. Stannis has the naval supremacy. Relevant quotes, ACoK Catelyn I and V.

If Stannis is able to take KL, Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey are either captive or dead, and he may be able to get his hands on Tommen in Rosby. Myrcella is either already in Dorne or on the way there, betrothed to Trystane. That means that the Tyrells lose their royal marriage. Offer Edmure again and try to get Stannis offer a pardon. If he doesn't, the great western alliance will live on.

At this point Littlefinger might try to get the Vale involved. So what say you, would Lysa agree and would Bronze Yohn rebel?

First, I couldn't predict what Robb and Stannis would concoct between them. Maybe Robb simply sends a message to Stannis saying that the North and Riverlands are behind him and await instructions, so they try to keep Tywin penned up in Harrenhall (which admittedly would be tough, but it would certainly prevent the raiding parties from ravaging the Riverlands quite so severely. But if Robb could invade the Westerlands, find a secret path around the Golden Tooth, and fall upon Stafford's army with such devastation as he managed in the book, I'm completely confident that he could accomplish something similar on home turf if Stafford invaded the Riverlands. It might very well have been an even harsher defeat in that scenario. And hell, Edmure could hold off Tywin's forces with just over half his numbers, so I'm not sure how that'd be a problem in any case. Now imagine if Edmure had the Northern infantry, or if Robb had more cavalry. Either way, they hold the advantages.

Second, the Tyrells are not going to venture out on their own to save a dying regime. The Lannisters would be completely trounced in the Riverlands in my aforementioned scenario. Hell, the Ironborn might decide to raid the Westerlands after all if they see just how exposed the Westerlands have become. Not even Balon would ignore that, especially if HE was the one who thought of it rather than Theon turning it into a "gold price". If Balon decides that he can pay the iron price by attacking the Westerlands, he'll do it. It was just his pride getting in the way when it seemed like Robb was offering him the Westerlands as a bribe. In the middle of all that slaughter of the West, I really don't see the Tyrells taking on the Stormlands, North, and Riverlands again. They might declare independence, or they might withdraw and deny food to the other kingdoms, but either way, they aren't the ones to go on a huge initiative without a guarantee. Renly's death, Robb's triumph over Tywin, and Stannis' usurpation would put an end to all that. Olenna isn't the sort to gamble on long odds, she thought Renly was a fool from the start. 

Third, yes, the communication would be a thing, but if Catelyn could travel to the Reach and then the Stormlands unmolested, in small company, then I'm confident that Robb could have sent word to Stannis on Dragonstone. Hell, Wyman would surely have some ships ready by then; worst case scenario, send a ship to Dragonstone with a white flag of truce offering him the North and the Riverlands as allies. Might even threaten to put a smile on his face with news like that.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

3 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

First, I couldn't predict what Robb and Stannis would concoct between them. Maybe Robb simply sends a message to Stannis saying that the North and Riverlands are behind him and await instructions, so they try to keep Tywin penned up in Harrenhall (which admittedly would be tough, but it would certainly prevent the raiding parties from ravaging the Riverlands quite so severely. But if Robb could invade the Westerlands, find a secret path around the Golden Tooth, and fall upon Stafford's army with such devastation as he managed in the book, I'm completely confident that he could accomplish something similar on home turf if Stafford invaded the Riverlands. It might very well have been an even harsher defeat in that scenario. And hell, Edmure could hold off Tywin's forces with just over half his numbers, so I'm not sure how that'd be a problem in any case. Now imagine if Edmure had the Northern infantry, or if Robb had more cavalry. Either way, they hold the advantages.

I'm not particularly worried about Stafford, but merely pointed out that he should be accounted for. This timeline puts nearly eight months between the battles of the Camps and the Blackwater, seven between the Camps and the Fords. I trust that in that time Stafford could get his army in good enough order to matter. I don't know what advantages the Starks and Tullys hold against an army advancing up the river road, especially if it coordinates with Tywin.

How would you link up with the Northern infantry? Simultaneous advance to Harrenhal, or via the Twins? And where does the additional cavalry come from?

3 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Second, the Tyrells are not going to venture out on their own to save a dying regime. The Lannisters would be completely trounced in the Riverlands in my aforementioned scenario. Hell, the Ironborn might decide to raid the Westerlands after all if they see just how exposed the Westerlands have become. Not even Balon would ignore that, especially if HE was the one who thought of it rather than Theon turning it into a "gold price". If Balon decides that he can pay the iron price by attacking the Westerlands, he'll do it. It was just his pride getting in the way when it seemed like Robb was offering him the Westerlands as a bribe. In the middle of all that slaughter of the West, I really don't see the Tyrells taking on the Stormlands, North, and Riverlands again. They might declare independence, or they might withdraw and deny food to the other kingdoms, but either way, they aren't the ones to go on a huge initiative without a guarantee. Renly's death, Robb's triumph over Tywin, and Stannis' usurpation would put an end to all that. Olenna isn't the sort to gamble on long odds, she thought Renly was a fool from the start. 

I understand that the scenario consists of replacing Roose with Medger and declaring for Stannis before being crowned by the council. I take it that Tywin still wins against Medger, but the battle is less one-sided. If Medger didn't march as far south as Roose, that means Tywin is correspondingly more to the north. That might actually open a possibility to seize Harrenhal before Tywin.

Anyhow, assuming that Tywin still gains Harrenhal, I do not see how he is trounced in time. He just does what he did, waits there and burns the riverlands. I operate on the belief that the Tyrells do not want Stannis on the Throne. They imprison Parmen Crane and Erren Florent and Tarly puts Florents to death at Bitterbridge. Littlefinger is sent to Bitterbridge in Tyrion VIII (ACoK). In Tyrion IX he already should've been able to reach them. The latter chapter.

Quote

He wondered again about Littlefinger. There had been no word from Petyr Baelish since he had ridden off for Bitterbridge. That might mean nothing—or everything. Even Varys could not say. The eunuch had suggested that perhaps Littlefinger had met some misfortune on the roads. He might even be slain. Tyrion had snorted in derision. "If Littlefinger is dead, then I'm a giant." More likely, the Tyrells were balking at the proposed marriage.

According to the timeline, that leaves two months before the Blackwater. The Tyrells do not need to reach out themselves, all they need to do is what they do in the books, with the same guarantee. So yes, I expect they'll act.

I do not trust Balon to do that. Just my opinion. But if he does, the Tyrells have the Redwyne fleet to send. Paxter hardly has a problem with that: his son Horas is a hostage in KL while LF takes Hobber with him when he goes to negotiate.

So the question is: how is Tywin trounced? Because if that doesn't happen, I think the Tyrells join, and that means they can stop Stannis.

3 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Third, yes, the communication would be a thing, but if Catelyn could travel to the Reach and then the Stormlands unmolested, in small company, then I'm confident that Robb could have sent word to Stannis on Dragonstone. Hell, Wyman would surely have some ships ready by then; worst case scenario, send a ship to Dragonstone with a white flag of truce offering him the North and the Riverlands as allies. Might even threaten to put a smile on his face with news like that.

Sure. Messages can go through: as you said, Catelyn did. But one should be mindful of messaging. Ravens are brought down, riders captured, and ships sink. That's especially important if you mean to coordinate with Stannis sharing plans. The safer route by the sea also might take more time.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

How would you link up with the Northern infantry? Simultaneous advance to Harrenhal, or via the Twins? And where does the additional cavalry come from?

I understand that the scenario consists of replacing Roose with Medger and declaring for Stannis before being crowned by the council. I take it that Tywin still wins against Medger, but the battle is less one-sided. If Medger didn't march as far south as Roose, that means Tywin is correspondingly more to the north. That might actually open a possibility to seize Harrenhal before Tywin.

It depends on how things play out fully, because I don't want to just make a claim about what would happen based on my own desires. I'm simply pointing out changes in strategy which would have benefitted Robb compared to how things did play out. I already described how a more cautious man could have fought against Tywin's army: The Northern infantry could have formed a defensive shield wall, either on high ground or on the way to the Twins, whatever draws Tywin out. Heavy cavalry wouldn't be able to break a shield wall which is also being supported by spears and arrows; the Scots proved that against the English, and then the English proved it against the French. I don't imagine Lord Cerwyn or any other commander could have won that battle, mark you, but it would go from a disastrous defeat to a stalemate. Tywin would have to march away to save Jaime, and based on how he cheerfully left Edmure's army behind to go chase Stannis, I'd say he'd have done the same if push came to shove. That would leave Lord Cerwyn with an intact army to shadow Tywin, possibly launch attacks with his few cavalry. Tywin might try and battle them again, but the same outcome would happen, and meanwhile Jaime would still be captured and his army scattered. I hadn't considered Robb taking Harrenhal, but he'd be the one to have to do it, given that Tywin would still reach Harrenhall before Lord Cerwyn does. If we assume Robb still holds that council, Tywin would still take Harrenhall for his own, though he'd be outnumbered once the Northern army reunites and combines with the surviving Riverlords. 

To answer your other question, the additional cavalry I was thinking about was the 3,000 cavalry which Edmure used at the Fords. 

1 hour ago, TsarGrey said:

Anyhow, assuming that Tywin still gains Harrenhal, I do not see how he is trounced in time. He just does what he did, waits there and burns the riverlands. I operate on the belief that the Tyrells do not want Stannis on the Throne. They imprison Parmen Crane and Erren Florent and Tarly puts Florents to death at Bitterbridge. Littlefinger is sent to Bitterbridge in Tyrion VIII (ACoK). In Tyrion IX he already should've been able to reach them. The latter chapter.

According to the timeline, that leaves two months before the Blackwater. The Tyrells do not need to reach out themselves, all they need to do is what they do in the books, with the same guarantee. So yes, I expect they'll act.

So the question is: how is Tywin trounced? Because if that doesn't happen, I think the Tyrells join, and that means they can stop Stannis.

Tywin would be trapped in Harrenhal, as I said. He'd have to deal with around 20,000 Northmen, plus 15-20,000 Riverlanders, and that's before even mentioning the reinforcements that Robb could call on if he needed them (Dustin, Manderly, mountain clans, Cerwyn, Tallhart, Umber, Karstark, etc). His raiding parties only got a free reign because Robb took his heavy cavalry out of the Riverlands and Edmure allowed his own forces to scatter again to tend to their own territories. If Robb and Edmure made a loose siege of Harrenhall, then Tywin is trapped, and he's too cautious to give open battle to his enemies if he can't be sure of victory. That neutralises Tywin much more, even without the Vale helping out. Sure, the Tyrells might still act, but even if they still drive Stannis out, Tywin is still trapped, and he'd still end up having to fight his way out. And he's got a majority of the surviving Westerlands' nobility with him, too. If they all die, that leaves Cersei and Tyrion isolated at the mercy of the Reach, and the Reachmen have no grudge against Robb. Plus if Theon never goes to the Iron Islands, Balon isn't going to do much damage anyway. We know how quickly the Ironborn lost when they left their ships. And with Daryn Hornwood alive and well in the Twins, there's no Hornwood crisis for Ramsay to exploit. This means that the North remains united and drives the Ironborn out easily enough. Robb doesn't break his marriage pact, so Walder Frey and his brood stay loyal to him, especially if they're winning. Roose Bolton is kept close under Robb's personal eye, with no advantages, so he will stay loyal too. And if Bran and Rickon are alive and well, Catelyn never releases Jaime, which means the Karstarks stay loyal too. 

It's fair to assume that if Tywin and his army die or surrender and Jaime remains a prisoner (and maybe Rickard Karstark gets to execute Jaime once his value as a hostage plays out), the Lannisters will fold like wet cardboard. The Tyrells might want to push for their marriage pact to play out, but how exactly are they going to inspire anyone outside of the Reach to follow them? They become no better usurpers than their enemies in that scenario. And sure, they've got a big army, but the North and Riverlands aren't throwing away their armies peacemeal at Duskendale this time.

Also, assuming that Stannis still survives his retreat from King's Landing, he can always sail away from Dragonstone and go to the Riverlands instead, where he assumes command of Robb and Edmure's forces. Now it's Stannis Baratheon in overall command, which dramatically increases the chance that Tywin's goose is cooked, no matter how fast the Tyrells try to mobilise and save him. Hell, maybe instead of attacking King's Landing first, he brings his 16,000 cavalry and 5,000 infantry to Harrenhall instead?

Regardless, this means that the Reach is forced to deal with Stannis at the head of tens of thousands of fighting men, with Dorne and the Vale being neutral, the Westerlands demoralised, the Ironborn presumably launching raids against them (if Euron still comes back and does his thing), and suddenly the Reach is fighting it alone. In the worst case scenario, Stannis and Robb pull back into the North and the Reach breaks themselves against Moat Cailin, or have themselves a Pyrrhic victory against Manderly's new fleet (and we know what happens when southrons go north during the winter).

[Ivan Tsarevich]

You know what, I'm quite convinced. I'll just leave few more thoughts.

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Heavy cavalry wouldn't be able to break a shield wall which is also being supported by spears and arrows; the Scots proved that against the English, and then the English proved it against the French.

I have rather high opinion of the combat ability of heavy cavalry, influenced by this writing which I believe is written by @Aldarion. For that reason, I'm a bit pessimistic of the performance of the Northern infantry. Still, better tactics certainly would make a difference.

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

He'd have to deal with around 20,000 Northmen, plus 15-20,000 Riverlanders, and that's before even mentioning the reinforcements that Robb could call on if he needed them (Dustin, Manderly, mountain clans, Cerwyn, Tallhart, Umber, Karstark, etc).

I'm also pessimistic of these numbers. Robb has at start some 18k, and mindful of what I say in the paragraph above, Medger's infantry might take more losses than that. If we add to these 4k Freys, (of which 1k cavalry,) and then those 11k Edmure had at the Fords (8k inf., 3k cav.) we get less than 33k and that Tyroshi sellsword at Riverrun whom George said he forgot. Which is enough to handle or at the very least match Tywin, to be sure.

Feel free to fix my numbers.

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

This means that the Reach is forced to deal with Stannis at the head of tens of thousands of fighting men, with Dorne and the Vale being neutral, the Westerlands demoralised, the Ironborn presumably launching raids against them (if Euron still comes back and does his thing), and suddenly the Reach is fighting it alone. In the worst case scenario, Stannis and Robb pull back into the North and the Reach breaks themselves against Moat Cailin, or have themselves a Pyrrhic victory against Manderly's new fleet (and we know what happens when southrons go north during the winter).

And here's the kicker. The Vale. I earlier threw this question:

On 12/8/2020 at 8:11 AM, TsarGrey said:

At this point Littlefinger might try to get the Vale involved. So what say you, would Lysa agree and would Bronze Yohn rebel?

So do you think that Lysa stays put?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

On 12/9/2020 at 11:18 PM, TsarGrey said:

I have rather high opinion of the combat ability of heavy cavalry, influenced by this writing which I believe is written by @Aldarion. For that reason, I'm a bit pessimistic of the performance of the Northern infantry. Still, better tactics certainly would make a difference.

History has shown what happens when heavy cavalry charges against massed men who are fighting on foot, and remain disciplined. Bannockburn, Crecy, Agincourt, Poitiers, and more.

On 12/9/2020 at 11:18 PM, TsarGrey said:

I'm also pessimistic of these numbers. Robb has at start some 18k, and mindful of what I say in the paragraph above, Medger's infantry might take more losses than that. If we add to these 4k Freys, (of which 1k cavalry,) and then those 11k Edmure had at the Fords (8k inf., 3k cav.) we get less than 33k and that Tyroshi sellsword at Riverrun whom George said he forgot. Which is enough to handle or at the very least match Tywin, to be sure.

Feel free to fix my numbers.

Those numbers make sense, though there's thousands more Northmen to consider as possible reinforcements; if all goes as I pointed out, then Rodrik Cassel would still hold Winterfell for the Starks, the 2000 men he'd put together to stop Theon would all still be alive, as would the Manderly and Hornwood men killed when Ramsay seized Lady Hornwood (he'd never dare do that with her son still alive and waiting to return home, after all). Not to mention the Dustin and Ryswell forces that never went south, the Manderlys and their allies, the 3000 mountain clansmen, and more. Sure, the Glovers might still lose Deepwood Motte, and Torrhen's Square might be taken, but look how quickly the Northmen retook those places once they actually led assaults on them. And Victarion Greyjoy would still leave once Euron does away with Balon, so Moat Cailin falls too. 

On 12/9/2020 at 11:18 PM, TsarGrey said:

And here's the kicker. The Vale. I earlier threw this question:

So do you think that Lysa stays put?

That's hard to answer, honestly. The Vale could either make it really easy for Robb to win, or they could destroy him by siding with the throne, or they continue to do nothing. But my rationale is that if Littlefinger couldn't persuade Lysa to lead the Vale forces against the usurpers, even though it would have been a major boost to his reputation in King's Landing, then I'm convinced that he didn't have quite as much of a hold on Lysa as would be required to make her do anything differently from what she does in the books. So I think the Vale stays neutral, since not even Yohn Royce was dumb enough to disobey Lysa and risk the other Vale lords invading and carving up a traitor's estates.

[Canon Claude]

16 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

 

That's hard to answer, honestly. The Vale could either make it really easy for Robb to win, or they could destroy him by siding with the throne, or they continue to do nothing. But my rationale is that if Littlefinger couldn't persuade Lysa to lead the Vale forces against the usurpers, even though it would have been a major boost to his reputation in King's Landing, then I'm convinced that he didn't have quite as much of a hold on Lysa as would be required to make her do anything differently from what she does in the books. So I think the Vale stays neutral, since not even Yohn Royce was dumb enough to disobey Lysa and risk the other Vale lords invading and carving up a traitor's estates.

I don’t think Littlefinger was incapable of influencing Lysa. He simply never tried. It was in his best interests to keep the Vale neutral, because then the Starks and Lannisters destroy each other as he clearly intended. If the Vale intervened either way, then the conflict would have ended much faster with far fewer casualties. This way, the chaos has torn the Seven Kingdoms apart, Littlefinger has become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, and also the Lord Protector of the Vale. No doubt he’d have acted if Robb had crushed Tywin too quickly.