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Who told Doran


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Hey Guys! So, I'm back in my cycle of reading again and I believe I figured out a connection regarding the person who told Doran, the plan of crowning Myrcela by Arianne. 


Alright so the first time we here about crowning Myrcella is with Oberyn in ASOS:


Does the snake think I have Sansa squirreled away somewhere, like a nut I'm hoarding for winter? If so, Tyrion was not about to disabuse him. "A trip to Dorne might be very pleasant, now that I reflect on it."


"Plan on a lengthy visit." Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. "You and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarf's penny . . . the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncle's counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead."


If Varys had his little birds listening, Oberyn was giving them a ripe earful. "I believe I will have that cup of wine," said Tyrion. Queen Myrcella? It would have been more tempting if only he did have Sansa tucked beneath his cloak. If she declared for Myrcella over Tommen, would the north follow? What the Red Viper was hinting at was treason. Could Tyrion truly take up arms against Tommen, against his own father? Cersei would spit blood. It might be worth it for that alone.


So, the only people to hear this was Tyrion and Varys' spies as we learn that Varys has spies in KL and disguises himself there as Rugen in the black cells:


"Rugen was the man's name. An undergaoler who had charge of the black cells. The chief undergaoler describes him as portly, unshaven, gruff of speech. He held his appointment of the old king, Aerys, and came and went as he pleased. The black cells have not oft been occupied in recent years. The other turnkeys were afraid of him, it seems, but none knew much about him. He had no friends, no kin. Nor did he drink or frequent brothels. His sleeping cell was damp and dreary, and the straw he slept upon was mildewed. His chamber pot was overflowing."


In fact, Oberyn makes it a point to mention to let the birds know:


"Your father," said Prince Oberyn, "may not live forever."

Something about the way he said it made the hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck bristle. Suddenly he was mindful of Elia again, and all that Oberyn had said as they crossed the field of ashes. He wants the head that spoke the words, not just the hand that swung the sword. "It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening."

"Let them. Is it treason to say a man is mortal? Valar morghulis was how they said it in Valyria of old. All men must die. And the Doom came and proved it true." The Dornishman went to the window to gaze out into the night. "It is being said that you have no witnesses for us."


So lets go over the context of Oberyn saying this, at this point Oberyn has accepted the fight against the Mountain which may end up killing him. So Varys now knows:


- Oberyn will fight the Mountain 

- If Oberyn was to win, he will take Tyrion to Dorne and crown Myrcella

- He also gets a hint that Tywin might die


Doran and likely Oberyn knew about Varys and his spies:


Quentyn had begun to think that they might have done better to buy their own ship in the Planky Town. That would have drawn unwanted attention, however. The Spider had informers everywhere, even in the halls of Sunspear. "Dorne will bleed if your purpose is discovered," his father had warned him, as they watched the children frolic in the pools and fountains of the Water Gardens. "What we do is treason, make no mistake. Trust only your companions, and do your best to avoid attracting notice."


I don't believe crowning Myrcella is actually Oberyn's plan because if it was then he wouldn't say it out loud for spies to hear. Oberyn and Doran worked closely, I doubt Doran would approve of Oberyn telling their plan out loud for Varys to hear:


"I am not blind, nor deaf. I know that you all believe me weak, frightened, feeble. Your father knew me better. Oberyn was ever the viper. Deadly, dangerous, unpredictable. No man dared tread on him. I was the grass. Pleasant, complaisant, sweet-smelling, swaying with every breeze. Who fears to walk upon the grass? But it is the grass that hides the viper from his enemies and shelters him until he strikes. Your father and I worked more closely than you know … but now he is gone. The question is, can I trust his daughters to serve me in his place?"


Doran does say he still has friends at court:


Prince Doran took a jagged breath. "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know.


The key word here is still, this would refer from Aerys' time (as Doran and Robert hardly talked nor visited KL), so which person is still at court from Aerys' time? Varys is one that is left and lets not forget Varys was the one who tried to save the children and the city from the Lannisters:


"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.


Oberyn's message seems to be more for Varys. And what would Varys do with this information? Varys does want Aegon on the throne and Dorne to swear allegiance to Aegon. So, lets see what actually happens:


- Oberyn ends up dying

- Tyrion is shuffled to Pentos by Varys and Arianne tries to crown Myrcella

- Tywin ends up dying via Tyrion


It would actually cause more chaos if Tyrion was taken to Dorne, as he had wanted to go to Dorne and crown Myrcella


The cabin boy did not answer. He was an ugly boy, though admittedly more comely than a certain dwarf with half a nose and a scar from eye to chin. "Have I offended you?" Tyrion asked, as the boy was scrubbing. "Were you commanded not to talk to me? Or did some dwarf diddle your mother?" That went unanswered too. "Where are we sailing? Tell me that." Jaime had made mention of the Free Cities, but had never said which one. "Is it Braavos? Tyrosh? Myr?" Tyrion would sooner have gone to Dorne. Myrcella is older than Tommen, by Dornish law the Iron Throne is hers. I will help her claim her rights, as Prince Oberyn suggested.


Illyrio seems like he already knows and says that Myrcella would die if crowned:


The cheesemonger spooned up cherries. "In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death's-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her. Dorne might rise for Myrcella, but Dorne alone is not enough. If you are as clever as our friend insists, you know this."


Doran also comes up with the same conclusion:

"Only if we lost."

"If? The word is when. Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth. Valor is a poor substitute for numbers. Dorne cannot hope to win a war against the Iron Throne, not alone. And yet that may well be what you have given us. Are you proud?" The prince did not allow her time to answer. "What am I to do with you, Arianne?"

Forgive me, part of her wanted to say, but his words had cut her too deeply. "Why, do what you always do. Do nothing."


It is likely Oberyn knew crowning Myrcella would amount to disaster also. The only people who don't believe it would be a disaster is Arianne and Tyene, in fact it was on Tyene's mind when Doran went to Sunspear after Oberyn's death:


Prince Doran sighed. "Obara cries to me for war. Nym will be content with murder. And you?"

"War," said Tyene, "though not my sister's war. Dornishmen fight best at home, so I say let us hone our spears and wait. When the Lannisters and the Tyrells come down on us, we shall bleed them in the passes and bury them beneath the blowing sands, as we have a hundred times before."

"If they should come down on us."

"The lawful heir?" The prince snorted.

"She is older than her brother," explained Tyene, as if he were some fool. "By law the Iron Throne should pass to her."

"By Dornish law."

Doran tries to stop the crowning of Myrcella by imprisoning only Oberyn's children:


"Loreza is six, Dorea eight. What wars could they foment? Yet my father has imprisoned them with their sisters. You have seen him. Fear makes even strong men do things they might never do otherwise, and my father was never strong. Arys, my heart, hear me for the love you say you bear me. I have never been as fearless as my cousins, for I was made with weaker seed, but Tyene and I are of an age and have been close as sisters since we were little girls. We have no secrets between us. If she can be imprisoned, so can I, and for the same cause . . . this of Myrcella."


 I think the original plan told to Tyrion is a message to Varys that if he dies, he knows Arianne would try to crown Myrcella.  Doran seems to be informed of this but he didn't believe it which is the reason Arianne was able to get as far as she did:


"You make it difficult for a man to swallow his anger."


"Best stop swallowing, you're like to choke on it." The prince did not answer. "Tell me how you knew my plans."


"I am the Prince of Dorne. Men seek my favor."


Someone told. "You knew, and yet you still allowed us to make off with Myrcella. Why?"


"That was my mistake, and it has proved a grievous one. You are my daughter, Arianne. The little girl who used to run to me when she skinned her knee. I found it hard to believe that you would conspire against me. I had to learn the truth."


I think the person who told, is Varys. Varys informed Doran to stop the crowning of Myrcella, and Varys took Tyrion to Illyrio to babysit in order to not cause further problems with the crowning of Myrcella.


As for why would Varys tell Doran? Well, he could be the friend at court that Doran mentioned and Oberyn knew this information will be passed down. Or since Varys wants to crown Aegon and have Dorne's support perhaps he did not want another claimant at the same time of Aegon.


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I think Oberyn wanted Varys to hear him as a faint. After all, Dorne is somewhat inspired by Dune ('faints within faints within faints') and he did offer marriages to Arianne in order to disguise the marriage pact (or so he claims) and some people (myself included) believe that even the marriage pact was a faint. So it's likely that he wanted people to think the crowning of Myrcella was his plan.

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