International Events 5, "As the World Turns"

[ithanos]

In heartening news, the pachyderms of Yunnan province are still traipsing about - but to where? no one seems to know, not even the pachyderms!

https://news.yahoo.com/elephants-500km-trek-across-china-230421448.html

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They've been seen smashing down doors, raiding shops, "stealing" food, playing around in the mud, taking a bath in a canal and napping in the middle of a forest.

They've also been spotted hoovering up crops in their wake and moseying into people's houses - on one occasion, lining up in a courtyard to drink water, successfully turning on a tap with their trunks.

 

 

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However, China is one of the few places in the world where the elephant population is growing thanks to extensive conservation efforts.

China has cracked down hard on poaching and, as a result, the wild elephant population in Yunnan province has gone from 193 in the 1990s to about 300 today.

 

Good to hear.

 

And in disheartening news, the final issue of pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily,

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-appledaily-idUSKCN2E10JU

Their website url has been redirected to a message page, at the bottom of which says "Good luck, and goodbye."

[TheLastWolf]

3 hours ago, ithanos said:

And in disheartening news, the final issue of pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily,

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-appledaily-idUSKCN2E10JU

Their website url has been redirected to a message page, at the bottom of which says "Good luck, and goodbye."

3 hours ago, ithanos said:

Quote

However, China is one of the few places in the world where the elephant population is growing thanks to extensive conservation efforts.

China has cracked down hard on poaching and, as a result, the wild elephant population in Yunnan province has gone from 193 in the 1990s to about 300 today.

 

Good to hear.

Isn't Yunnan near Wuhan? At least Mao's policies weren't so big a disaster to force eating jumbos. 

Plus India leads that former emboldened thing. Good thing that human population is not the only thing Indians are competing with China and leading soon. 

[Fez]

I don't know the quality of polling in Brazil, and the election is still more than a year away, but this poll at least suggests Lula is going to beat Bolsonaro in a landslide in his comeback.

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

36 minutes ago, Fez said:

I don't know the quality of polling in Brazil, and the election is still more than a year away, but this poll at least suggests Lula is going to beat Bolsonaro in a landslide in his comeback.

 

As a Brazilian, I have to say the quality of Brazilian polling is disastrously bad, specially early on, and very clearly biased for left-leaning politicians- in the last major elections, there were several mistakes beyond the margin of error in major cities, and without exception the more left-leaning one had the advantage in the polls compared to the actual results.

There's also the matter that, besides methodology errors and poll limitations, one of the many revelations about the corruption investigations about Lula and his cronies used corruption money to pay for these polls, particularly at some of the smaller, less reliable ones, that usually gave him even better numbers.

The idea that Lula couldn't manage to win an election in the first round in 5 tries (in fact, he lost to Fernando Henrique Cardoso twice in the first round), even when he was in office with incumbent advantage, and couldn't get his chosen successor to win in the first round when he had more than 80% approval, but somehow would do it now after he had multiple convictions for corruption that were annulled not because he was innocent, but because Supreme Court alleged irregularities that were somehow missed by dozen of judges in lower ones (coincidentally, after some SC members begun to see their names involved in corruption accusations themselves, they reversed their positions and begun to be against the investigations, with one particularly going to multiple TV shows to anticipate how he was voting on multiple issues, accusing the investigators and judges of all sorts of crimes, and even crying after he managed to overturn one of Lula's sentences), which caused anger across the entire population, is just laughable.

This is particularly true because his part lost 2/3 of the major posts it had in 2012, and a large part of it's seats in Congress.

Also, keep in mind that the same institutes in the last elections predicted either he or his puppet would win comfortably against anyone, and yet Bolsonaro nearly won in the first round and won comfortably in the 2nd one.

What is not false is Bolsonaro's massive fall in popularity-  he ran as anti-corruption crusader, but quickly abandoned that platform to save his family once the investigations got to them, and lost virtually everyone that voted on him for that reason, particularly middle-class and/or more educated votes (unlike what happened in the US, last elections urban, more educated voters voted on the right). Like I said before, is anecdotal, but I know a lot of people that regretted voting for Bolsonaro, but not a single one that regrets NOT having voted for him,

He actually contributed to Lula being released, actively sanctioning or supporting several pro-corruption measures, sabotaging Sergio Moro and the Car Wash investigation, appointing people connected to Lula's party to key jobs, including the Supreme Court, both to save his family and himself from corruption, and because Lula's massive rejection would play to his benefit in a 2nd round- however, due to his handling of the pandemic, his rejection rate is now even bigger.

Mind you, many analysts and politicians don't even expect Bolsonaro to make to the 2nd round last year, which is why Lula and his allies in the press (and there's a lot of them) are trying to play down or sabotage 3rd way candidates (whether from the center-left or center-right) because they know no one other than Bolsonaro has a similar rejection. It also explains why he doesn't support Bolsonaro's impeachment- his VP, Hamilton Mourão, is very much a right-winger, but is not insane, and far smarter and more pragmatic, and could be a problem if he does a good job (or at least, a good job in comparison to Bolsonaro, which is not that hard).

 

 

 

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

As a Brazilian, I have to say the quality of Brazilian polling is disastrously bad, specially early on, and very clearly biased for left-leaning politicians- in the last major elections, there were several mistakes beyond the margin of error in major cities, and without exception the more left-leaning one had the advantage in the polls compared to the actual results.

Nonetheless, isn't it true that Lula is still pretty broadly popular in Brazil, in spite of the many scandals he's been involved in? 

[Hereward]

As I’m currently mainly working on counter-terrorist threat analysis in Mali, just thought I’d note that 12 German soldiers were wounded in a suicide bombing today. Best wishes to them. 

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Nonetheless, isn't it true that Lula is still pretty broadly popular in Brazil, in spite of the many scandals he's been involved in? 

Yes and no- I mean, he's popular in the same way someone like Trump is- he has a lot of fanatical die-hard support, but a massive rejection rate, specially among the more educated population and in the wealthier parts of the country. In fact, his electorate is in a lot of ways similar to Trump- poor, uneducated from the poorest areas of the country, with support from mainstream politicians from that areas, and a big rejection among college educated ones and among politicians from the (relatively) wealthier parts of the country- have his support in a place like the Northeastern states pretty much guarantees your election in most situations, while in São Paulo is suicide, just like having Trump backing you is gold in Mississippi and poison in New York.

Key difference between the two of them, and with Bolsonaro, is that, despite his origins and rhetoric, he's very much an establishment man. A good part of the mainstream politicians and businessmen (and judges) would be happy with him president forever- he's made them very wealthy.

 

 

[kiko]

12 hours ago, Hereward said:

As I’m currently mainly working on counter-terrorist threat analysis in Mali, just thought I’d note that 12 German soldiers were wounded in a suicide bombing today. Best wishes to them. 

I hope they will get the hint. German soldiers really should stay in Germany. Ideally in their homes.

[TheLastWolf]

Fuck off Brazilian tRump

[Hereward]

9 hours ago, kiko said:

I hope they will get the hint. German soldiers really should stay in Germany. Ideally in their homes.

You don’t think civilians deserve protection from jihadi terrorists, or you think they do, but someone else should bear the risk?

[kiko]

I just don't think German soldiers should go abroad. Other ways of support are acceptable but not boots on the ground.

Link added:

They didn't learn anything

[Winterfell is Burning]

The governor of Brazil's 6th largest state came out as gay, becoming Brazil's most preeminent gay politician  Eduardo Leite is 36 and is a potential contender for the presidency in 2022.    Should be noticed, however, that Brazil's first openly gay Congressman, Jean Wyllis, attacked him for coming out, apparently for not being left-wing enough and too white, even implying it was a purely political move (and trust me, it was even more confusing than it sounds)

[TheLastWolf]

3 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

The governor of Brazil's 6th largest state came out as gay, becoming Brazil's most preeminent gay politician  Eduardo Leite is 36 and is a potential contender for the presidency in 2022.    Should be noticed, however, that Brazil's first openly gay Congressman, Jean Wyllis, attacked him for coming out, apparently for not being left-wing enough and too white, even implying it was a purely political move (and trust me, it was even more confusing than it sounds)

Is that Bolsonaro guy still alive? 

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, The_Lone_Wolf said:

Is that Bolsonaro guy still alive? 

Of course, assholes live longer.

[TheLastWolf]

16 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Of course, assholes live longer.

Delist him and pop him

[The Marquis de Leech]

The Samoan Government is prosecuting the Opposition leadership... for the crime of winning an election:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/446289/samoa-police-asked-to-move-against-fast

https://samoaglobalnews.com/head-of-state-says-no-party-has-a-majority-and-hits-back-at-supreme-court-judgment-to-convene-parliament/

(This has escalated quickly over the last couple of months. The Government's response to losing the election was to call another election. The courts declared that unconstitutional. So the Government are ignoring the courts, and pulling this stunt instead).

 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

(This has escalated quickly over the last couple of months. The Government's response to losing the election was to call another election. The courts declared that unconstitutional. So the Government are ignoring the courts, and pulling this stunt instead).

Gosh this sounds familiar.  The only election that is a true and honest and authentic legitimate election is the one I win!

[DMC]

Putin has gone and done it now.  Pissing off most of the world's major military powers is one thing, but you do NOT fuck with the French winemakers!

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As geopolitical food fights go, Vladimir Putin’s assault on French Champagne might well be described as Extra Brut.

The Russian president signed a law on Friday that will ban foreign sparkling wine producers from using the term "Champagne" — even those produced in France's famed, wine-growing region from which the name originates. Only Russian-made shampanskoe wines will be able to use the term.

The move was viewed as a major affront in France, which has strict rules to protect the name and reputation of its beloved bubbly, and on Monday the country's main Champagne industry group called for all producers to halt exports to Russia "until further notice."

 

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Putin has gone and done it now.  Pissing off most of the world's major military powers is one thing, but you do NOT fuck with the French winemakers!

Nah, they were all bark and no bite. I understand exportations  to Russia have already resumed.

Though the whole thing was a big nothingburger anyway. What French winemakers can't use is the translated term: not Champagne but Shampanskoe. So what this tells us is that Champagne isn't that popular in Russia, and that French producers would have rather competed under the Shampanskoe label. Ha!

 

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

So what this tells us is that Champagne isn't that popular in Russia

A shocking conclusion!