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Canadian Politics: Is that a Light at the End of the Tunnel?


Fragile Bird

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1 hour ago, kairparavel said:

Snow Birds gonna be pissed.

https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2021/02/government-of-canada-expands-restrictions-to-international-travel-by-land-and-air.html

I assume the week stagger is to allow said Snow Birds to arrange getting back now?

 

Old news, Kair! :P 

Ontario started testing at airports immediately, once the feds announced it. I don't know if we had set up hotels or had to wait for the federal government to do it, I think the latter. We also reduced the number of airports allowing international flights to land, to 6, I think.

It's great they now added testing at the border crossings. The timing isn't to let people in without tests, it's to get everything set up across the country, there are a lot of border crossings. Wikipedia lists 118, and a lot are pretty isolated. (eta: that's why there are no quarantine hotels at land borders, no infrastructure to do that at many crossings)

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My American neighbors tried to cross the border into Canada with hunting guns for protection, they said. They were asked where they were going to encounter wild animals, as they had provided an itenerary for populated areas, so they were told to give their guns to a ( named) bar in the States a short drive away so they could enter Canada. It cost them ten dollars. The problem was not rare. No hotels!

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For 'Bird upon seeing my first article about Canada and Covid and the US on a mainstream news source (not saying there aren't others, but despite the very many news sources I check every day, the first one I've seen -- but I don't watch tv, so maybe that's why?):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/canada-snowbirds-coronavirus-florida-vaccine-restrictions/2021/02/12/d1f8b9f2-6572-11eb-bf81-c618c88ed605_story.html

 

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36 minutes ago, Zorral said:

For 'Bird upon seeing my first article about Canada and Covid and the US on a mainstream news source (not saying there aren't others, but despite the very many news sources I check every day, the first one I've seen -- but I don't watch tv, so maybe that's why?):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/canada-snowbirds-coronavirus-florida-vaccine-restrictions/2021/02/12/d1f8b9f2-6572-11eb-bf81-c618c88ed605_story.html

 

Thanks! I subscribe to the NYT and the WaPo and they draw your attention to stuff about Canada. I see stories on CNN, CNBC and Public tv out of Buffalo. 
 

I laughed at that story, really. 11% of the population vaccinated, 2.38 M first doses administered, 1.1 M people fully vaccinated. All of Canada has received 1.43 M doses for the whole country, 975k first doses, 294k second doses, sharply lower than Florida because so many provinces have given first doses only to try to give some modicum of protection.

”Tens of thousands” of Canadians have received vaccines in Florida! Estimates are that less than 1% of the usual 3.5 M visits from Canadians have been made, so less than 35,000 people. Florida said 40,000 non-residents received vaccines, and I bet many came from neighboring states. I can’t imagine that every Canadian in Florida got vaccinated.

CNBC did a report from areas usually full of Canadians (the long-term stay folks tend to hang out together) showing empty beaches, empty restaurants and bars, and shop owners bemoaning missing tourists. I have said before, if you are asking people to come down and spend money ($6 B, usually!) you should be vaccinating them. Toronto would do it, if we had vaccine, but we don’t.

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Honestly, Bird, I think the situation in Canada really isn't different from here, in terms of who is getting vaccinated and when.  Supply is far under what is demanded, fundamental, and every level of acquisition, organization, distribution, administration has been very poorly done because there is no unity of leadership and direction -- and here, additionally, the 'federal' government, meaning you know who and his enabling monsters, grifted, grafted, lied and were utterly incompetent, and beyond that, just didn't give a damn, and beyond that even, had an idea the more sick and dying, the better for them in the election.

And ya the rich and famous find it so easy to get a vaccination, where the rest of us, even those like us, who aren't suffering like so many are, and who have access to health care, can't get it, other than by spending a week of one's life all day and night going repeatedly to every site and trying, or by sheer luck.

 

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Update

Jan        10We  11Th  12Fr   13Sa  14Su  15Mo  16Tu  17We

BC          469     449    445    452     431    348     302    427         

AB          339     351    314    305     284    251     263    277        

SK          180     114    195    244     161    143     136    124             

MB           57       90      81    100      80       71      96      76                 

ON       1072     945  1076  1300    931    964     904     847 

PQ          989   1121    984  1049   910     728     669    800       

Atl-4         67     104      55     44      17        2       13      50                  

North         2         7        1       5        3        8         5        5                                       

Total      3178  3181  3151  3499  2864  2515   2388  2606 

I'm just getting caught up now, because of the holiday Monday, several provinces didn't report. I had a blank for Monday in Manitoba, and finally nailed down a number. Newfoundland found another 44 cases today. Ontario seems to be steadily dropping, although tomorrow's number could be higher since more people seem to come out to be tested on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. However, with the snow storm hitting us so hard it might not follow the regular pattern. Today's number includes 292 cases in Toronto, which shows you how Covid has spread around the province. Until recently more than half the cases would be here in the city. And we are supposed to get more snow over the next two days. Alberta is having more problems in meat packing plants, 7 have had outbreaks.

CTV has added a variant tracker. B.1.1.7 is the most common one, but the South African variant, B.1.351, has been popping up. One Mississauga condo tower has 5 cases, and none of the people know each other and none of them travelled. It could be one of them spread it to the others by being with them at some point in the elevator or some other common space.

So far this week we have received 271,635 vaccine doses, which I assume is all Pfizer vaccine, it looks like we are due to receive 168,000 Moderna doses next week. We are supposed to receive 403,650, let's see if it all comes in.

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Major-General Deny Fortin, who leads Canada's Covid-19 logistics team, said today that we have received the promised 403,650 Pfizer doses this week. They haven't showed up on CTV's vaccine tracker yet, perhaps tomorrow.

In other news, the Federal government has announced it's rolling back many of those mandatory minimum sentencing laws the Harper government introduced. Took them long enough. The laws have clogged up the courts and crowded the prisons. They were aimed at indigenous people and PoC, doubling their numbers in prisons in recent years.

Quote

The bill would make changes to both the Criminal Code and the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.

If passed, it would repeal more than a dozen mandatory minimum penalties on the books — including penalties for all drug offences in the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act, certain offences involving the use or possession of firearms and one tobacco-related offence.

Mandatory minimum penalties would remain in place for serious offences, including murder, child sexual abuse, firearm trafficking, importing and exporting restricted or prohibited firearms and firearm offences linked to organized crime, according to government documents prepared before a technical briefing on the new bill.

 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justice-reform-drug-treatment-criminal-code-1.5917710

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9 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Major-General Deny Fortin, who leads Canada's Covid-19 logistics team, said today that we have received the promised 403,650 Pfizer doses this week. They haven't showed up on CTV's vaccine tracker yet, perhaps tomorrow.

In other news, the Federal government has announced it's rolling back many of those mandatory minimum sentencing laws the Harper government introduced. Took them long enough. The laws have clogged up the courts and crowded the prisons. They were aimed at indigenous people and PoC, doubling their numbers in prisons in recent years.

 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justice-reform-drug-treatment-criminal-code-1.5917710

Every time I turn around I get this notice of another of Harper's laws being revoked, not just by the SC, but by the new regime because of all the problems they caused. I am so glad to see Harper's political legacy swirling down the drain. 

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Just bobbing up to criticize Ford (now becoming a regular hobby). Why would you send the wrong signal and start lifting restrictions at precisely the time when you were close to crushing the curve completely?

Lessons not learned.

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Update

Jan        12Fr   13Sa  14Su  15Mo  16Tu  17We  18Th  19Fr

BC          445    452     431    348     302    427     617   508         

AB          314    305     284    251     263    277     415   325        

SK          195    244     161    143     136    124     146   146             

MB           81    100      80       71      96      76     139     92                 

ON       1076  1300    931    964     904     847  1038  1150 

PQ          984  1049   910     728     669    800    900    800          

Atl-4         55     44      17        2       13      50       55     68                  

North         1       5        3        8         5        5         6       2                                      

Total      3151  3499  2864  2515   2388  2606  3316  3091

As predicted, the numbers went up on Thursday and Friday. Newfoundland keeps finding more cases. Nova Scotia is testing people coming off the ferry from Newfoundland. Ontario has reduced restrictions everywhere except Toronto and the GTA, North Bay and the Parry Sound area. The western provinces are loosening restrictions as well.

I see we are going to get the most vaccine so far next week, because we're getting both Pfizer and Moderna deliveries, although it will be a reduced Moderna amount. Gen. Hillier in a press conference said Ontario is getting only 45,000 doses instead of the 90,000 originally scheduled. 475,000 will be coming from Pfizer and 168,000 from Moderna, for a total of 643,000. Let's see if the provinces can actually handle the larger shipment. Quebec still hasn't done any second shots, but maybe their numbers are coming down so well because they've vaccinated so many people

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Nothing wrong with delaying the second shot in my books. The protection and reduced transmission you get from a large number of single shots probably outweighs the benefits of a little more protection for half the number of people. Good improvisation given our supply woes.

ETA: Oh and I don’t expect ON to improve much more now in terms of hospitalizations. Any benefit from the vaccine will be wiped out by additional mobility and changes in behaviour outside of Toronto and Peel. Nice one Ford! 

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Update

Feb      15Mo  16Tu  17We  18Th  19Fr  20Sa  21Su  22Mo

BC          348     302    427     617   508   504    475    449         

AB          251     263    277     415   325   380    328    273        

SK          143     136    124     146   146   193    182    177             

MB           71       96      76     139     92    95      58      97                 

ON         964     904     847  1038 1150 1228  1087  1058 

PQ          728     669     800    900   800   769   666     805          

Atl-4           2       13       50      55     68    45     29       16                 

North          8         5        5        6        2      6       1       12                                      

Total      2515   2388   2606  3316 3091 3220  2826  2887

The higher numbers continued over the weekend in Ontario, driven by more testing toward the end of the week. Four days of 1000+ cases. Months ago the number would have been largely in Toronto, but now Toronto is only a third of the cases. Another third are in the GTA and the rest are all over the province. Today's number is below 1,000 again, 975, but per the usual pattern, we only processed 25,979 tests. Our R-number in Toronto is well below 1 at .81 and our 7-day average positivity is 4.8%. I thought numbers across the country must be much better now but I see the most recent positivity number in Alberta was 7.8% while Ontario's was 4.2%. Nunavut is still dealing with their outbreak, while Newfoundland's is slowing down.

There have been 390 cases of B.1.1.7 in Ontario and 9 cases of the SA variant, B.1.351, and 1 case of the P variant, which I assume is the Brazil one. However, there are 16,495 swabs awaiting full genomic sequencing. I was interested to read about the process. From the information about variants on the Ontario page:

Quote

The laboratory detection of a variant of concern is a two-step process. Samples that test positive for SARS-CoV-2 and have a cycle threshold (Ct) value ≤ 35 can be tested for the N501Y mutation. If positive for the N501Y mutation these samples then undergo whole genome sequencing (WGS) to confirm the presence of a designated VOC. The table below refers to step one of this process. 

 Ontario says 16,000 people got shots yesterday. Considering we will get roughly 257,000 doses this week, we need to more than double that rate to 36,000 a day. Not only that, but maintain that rate because Canada will get another delivery of +400k doses again, so about 160k for Ontario. I expect Saskatchewan will do the best job, followed by Alberta and BC, and the Maritime provinces will be slowest off the mark.

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Update

Feb      17We  18Th  19Fr  20Sa  21Su  22Mo  23Tu  24We

BC          427     617   508   504    475    449     559     456         

AB          277     415   325   380    328    273     267     430        

SK          124     146   146   193    182    177     122       56             

MB           76     139     92    95      58      97       76        45                 

ON         847   1038 1150 1228  1087  1058    975    1054 

PQ          800    900    800   769   666     805    739     806          

Atl-4         50      55      68    45     29       16      18       15                 

North          5        6        2      6       1       12       0         0                                      

Total      2606  3316  3091 3220  2826  2887  2760  2862

Trying to update more often here. As I had mentioned, that Tuesday number in Ontario was based on less than 26k tests. To quote Trump, if we test more there are more cases, amirite? So test numbers and cases have gone up. Today's number in Ontario is actually 1,138, but that was off nearly the maximum amount of tests. We can do 70k tests a day, and we did 66,351 in the last 24 hours, the day before saw almost 55k done.  Our positivity rate in Ontario is about 2%.

There was a big jump in Alberta cases, but I can't see an on-line story giving a reason for it. Did results from meat packing plants come in? BC seems to be in the same place Ontario is at the moment, both hitting levels they can't seem to get below. Nunavut is still concerned about Arviat, where most of their cases are. People are working hard on following all the guidelines, but the virus is lurking in the community.

I've been looking at various provincial websites and one trend is apparent - more and more cases of B.1.1.7 are being reported. Ontario has found another 54 up to 449. Newfoundland believes most of their new cases are the UK variant, but so far they are reporting only 19 because the genomic sequencing of the cases is in process.

I saw in a press conference that the 645k doses expected this week have arrived, but it's not showing up in the tracker I use yet. Ontario administered about 19k doses yesterday, if we don't pick up speed we're going to get overwhelmed. Alberta, Quebec and Nova Scotia have their websites up and running but ours won't come on line for another couple of weeks. The federal government is again re-affirming that by the end of June we will have received 23 M doses, enough for 11.5 M full vaccinations. By my math that means about 38% of the population fully vaccinated, since there are about 30 M adults in the country. And of course, we will likely have received J&J and Novavax doses by then as well.

Another thing to bear in mind is that a lot of people are saying the US will have enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone by May, so those companies will then be able to finally ship doses here. We may have all the vaccine we need by June.

 

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I am astonished to see we have approved the AZ vaccine without seeing the results of the Phase 3 trial in the US.

Eta: we actually approved the brand-name AZ vaccine and the Covishield vaccine being produced under the COVAX program. We ordered 20 M doses of the AZ vaccine, which is supposed to come from their US plants. God knows when that will happen. We are supposed to receive 1.9 M doses from COVAX, 500,000 to be supplied from Korea in the next few weeks and the balance from India every couple of weeks until May.

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Some great news on the effectiveness of a single shot of the vaccine amongst the most vulnerable:

Quote

Most nursing-home residents in Canada have received at least one shot of the two-dose vaccines. Provincial statistics show infection, serious illness and deaths have plummeted since. In Alberta, cases in long-term care have dropped 92 per cent since Christmas. British Columbia had 16 cases in long-term care last week, down from 485 weekly cases in early December. In Ontario, active long-term care cases among residents fell from 1,650 to 105 in the past month. Manitoba and Quebec experienced similar drops.

Only 105 cases in ON care homes! That’s brilliant. One of the scourges of Covid in Canada has almost been tamed. Provided no curve balls from rising variants...

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4 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Some great news on the effectiveness of a single shot of the vaccine amongst the most vulnerable:

Only 105 cases in ON care homes! That’s brilliant. One of the scourges of Covid in Canada has almost been tamed.

Not only that, but today was the first day, I think, that none of the deaths were from a LTC facility. All vulnerable LTC residents have received both vaccines. That is, residents who need care. Residents who are independent are just starting to get vaccinated. Most LTC homes have several levels of care, from essentially no care required all the way up to 24 hr a day care needed. In Ontario, I mean.

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We have the start of an outbreak at our shop. About 20 people in isolation now, which has crippled our manufacturing. A whole bunch of other employees basically walked out. Our entire shipping&receiving is gone and we had trucks arriving with no one, total disaster. Apparently they are deploying rapid test kits from the government on Monday. 

On site I had a positive worker return today after his isolation period, which caused a near mutiny because they had all previously made some sort of blood pact that they would get tested prior to returning.

This might not even be the worst Friday I've had in the last year.

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Update

Feb       19Fr  20Sa  21Su  22Mo  23Tu  24We  25Th  26Fr

BC         508   504    475    449     559     456     395    589         

AB         325   380    328    273     267     430     399    356        

SK         146    193    182    177     122      56     211    153             

MB          92     95      58      97       76       45      70      64                 

ON      1150  1228  1087  1058    975   1054   1138  1258 

PQ         800    769   666     805    739    806     858    815          

Atl-4        68      45     29      16       18      15       22     16                 

North        2        6       1      12         0        0         4       1                                      

Total     3091 3220  2826  2887  2760  2862    3097  3252

Everybody's numbers creeped up during the week. PEI found a few cases in Summerside and asked all young people to be tested, and have found 6 cases one day and 6 the next. Once again B.1.1.7 is suspected. I gather the cases in Alberta were associated with a meat packing plant. Ontario has seen outbreaks in Thunder Bay and the Parry Sound area, and both of them are going under further restrictions starting Monday. This is why Ontario is struggling to get numbers down, cases are popping up in communities away from the GTA, Ottawa and Windsor.

It took the whole week for CTV to finally post the vaccine dose numbers on their tracking site, even though they apparently arrived on Monday. I assume we will receive another 400,000 or more Pfizer doses on Monday again. I have been watching the Ontario website to see how many vaccines they've been giving each day, and the highest I've seen so far has been about 25,000. Yesterday was only 19,000. We need to do 35,000 or so just to go through what we received this week. With more coming in we'll soon fall behind.

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Update

Feb       22Mo  23Tu  24We  25Th  26Fr   27Sa   28Su   1Mo

BC         449     559     456     395    589    532     508     438         

AB         273     267     430     399    356    415     301     291        

SK         177     122       56     211    153     162     141    154             

MB          97       76       45      70      64       90       50      35                 

ON      1058     975   1054   1138  1258   1185   1062   1023   

PQ         805     739    806     858    815      858     732    613          

Atl-4        16       18      15       22     16        16       15       4                 

North       12        0        0         4       1          0         1       1                                    

Total     2887  2760  2862    3097  3252   3258   2810   2559

The story over the weekend seems to be the fall in new cases across the country except for Ontario, and to some extent, BC. As I said before, BC seems to have hit a threshold it's finding hard to get under, and Ontario is seeing more cases outside the usual places. Today's number was under 1,000 again, but once again it was on a relatively low number of tests, just under 31k.

All the news today is about vaccines. First of all, BC is going to go the route Quebec took and only administer first doses for the next four months. Quebec itself said it was doing 3 months, 90 days. There are no second doses administered in Quebec so far, but presumably we'll start seeing them very soon. Apparently this subject has been under discussion in the meetings the provinces hold over the phone (every day, every couple of days, I don't know how often they meet) with the federal government. BC has come under some criticism for jumping the gun in it's announcement. The decision is apparently based on the results seen in Quebec, and other provinces may start to do the same.

The other news is about vaccine doses. We will receive about 945,000 this week, 445,000 from Pfizer and 500,000 from AZ. I have been tracking the daily doses administered in Ontario, and as I said before, we need to do 35,000 a day just to go through what we've received so far, but the most we've done is about 24,000. Of course, we may be reserving for second doses.

The 500,000 come from India and, I think, Korea. The rest of our 2 M Covax AZ doses will come from India. The problem is, 300,000 of the doses expire at the start of April. That sounds like all 300,000 need to be administered with second shots coming from later deliveries, unless we completely move to first shots only for now. Don't forget, we have 20 M AZ coming from the US as well.

Between April and the end of June we'll receive 23 M doses from Pfizer and Moderna. So far everyone has been counting this as 12.5 M people being vaccinated, but if we switch to first doses only, that means 23 M people being vaccinated. Back in December I wondered if this is what we should be doing, but then thought maybe we needed to do the two doses in the recommended time. I guess I am going back to the idea of one dose with a three month wait again. Oh...and the two million doses of Pfizer and Moderna we will receive this month as well. Since we only have 30 M people older than 18 in this country that would mean we'd be in pretty damn good shape.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/nearly-945k-vaccine-doses-arriving-this-week-including-first-from-astrazeneca-anand-1.5330307

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