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Fragile Bird

Canadian Politics: Is that a Light at the End of the Tunnel?

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Posted (edited)

Canada just approved the Pfizer vaccine for children 11 years old and older.

eta: actually, it for children older than 11, so 13 and up.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Posted (edited)

Update 

Apr  26Mo  27Tu  28We  29Th  30Fr    1Sa    2Su

BC     763     799     841     853    740    835    671

AB   1495   1539   1839   2048  2007  2433  1731

SK     245     224     213     205    264    262    239  

MB   210      218     189    230     295    266   281

ON 3510    3265   3480   3871  3887  3369  3732

PQ    889      899   1094   1042  1041  1101  1006

NB        7       24        8        10      15      18        6

NS      66       96       75       70      67    148     133

PE         2         0         2        0         2        0        1

NL         4         0         4        2         8        5        7

North   13        8         6       12       11       8      12

Total 7204   7072  7751   8343   8337  8445  7819

I guess the numbers speak for themselves. It was good to see BC get it’s number below 1,000 and ON below 4,000, and of course, we now have had two days below 3,000. NS shows what can happen when the variant gets loose. I thought numbers would drop when they started coming down, but then it was revealed they had a backlog of 45,000 tests to do. And the North numbers are almost all Iqaluit, where they’ve brought more stringent measures in to try to stamp the virus out.

We really need to pick up the vaccination game, now we’re getting 2 M doses of Pfizer in every week.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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On 5/5/2021 at 11:40 AM, Fragile Bird said:

 

I guess the numbers speak for themselves. It was good to see BC get it’s number below 1,000 and ON below 4,000, and of course, we now have had two days below 3,000. NS shows what can happen when the variant gets loose. I thought numbers would drop when they started coming down, but then it was revealed they had a backlog of 45,000 tests to do. And the North numbers are almost all Iqaluit, where they’ve brought more stringent measures in to try to stamp the virus out.

We really need to pick up the vaccination game, now we’re getting 2 M doses of Pfizer in every week.

3 straight days of ICU numbers dropping in Ontario ... hopefully we are past the worst of it.

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Posted (edited)

As of this week my mom (Moderna), and my middle sister (AZ) both on the Ottawa side of the river, and my youngest sister (Pfizer) on the Gatineau side have had their first jabs. 

Two weeks ago the age group dropped to over 40 for AZ in Ontario? Ottawa? Anyways middle and BIL qualified. 

Edited by kairparavel

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We will have received 25 M doses of vaccine by the end of May, which should mean most of the country should have received their first dose by the first week of June (those over 18), and in June we'll be getting 2.6 M Pfizer a week, so a third of the country should be fully vaccinated by July.

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Update 

May   30Fr    1Sa    2Su   3Mo   4Tu   5We   6Th   7Fr

BC      740    835    671    668    697    572    694   722     

AB    2007  2433  1731  2012  1743  2271  2211  1980

SK      264    262    239    207    189    196    156    295  

MB     295    266    281    251    291    272    363    502

ON   3887  3369  3732  3436  2791  2941  3424  3166

PQ    1041  1101  1006   798    797    915    907    919

NB       15      18        6      15       4      11      11        8

NS       67    148     133   146    153    175    182    227

PE         2         0        1        0        1       0         2       1

NL         8        5        7        5         4       6        6        7

North   11       8      12       17        7      19      25       2

Total 8337  8445  7819  7555  6689  7378  7981  7829

It's astonishing and distressing to see how rapidly the cases in MB and NS have increased. Both provinces have introduced more stringent measures now, but once again, it's amazing to see how we screw things up so quickly. And their ICUs are hitting capacity. ON dropped below 3,000 today again, so I hope that corner is being turned. We have also announced that Indigenous people living in cities can get their 2nd shots after 21 or 28 days. The region of Peel, I read, had 100,000 people vaccinated in the first three months but they have stepped things up and vaccinated 100,000 last week alone, and are ramping up to do 150,000 a week. Peel expects 75% to have received their first dose by the end of the month, and ON as a whole to have 65% of the eligible population to have received their first dose.

In the meantime, the NWT has added 35 cases in the last three days, and they have 75% of their population vaccinated with a first dose and 58% of the population overall.

I hope if we keep this up we'll soon catch up to and pass the US numbers. I heard that a recent survey shows the vaccine hesitancy number in Canada is 12%, much lower than the US number, and I expect that number to drop as more people get vaccinated. The Yukon has really slowed down, though, now that they've hit 76.5%. Only 362 got their first shot in the last week. On the other hand, a state like Mississippi only has 40% of it's eligible population vaccinated, and Canada is at 45%, and that state is awash in vaccine.

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I saw a great meme today. Sad, but true.
 

“India has gone into lockdown and all of a sudden Revenue Canada isn’t calling me anymore to tell me they have a warrant for my arrest.”

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I think 80% is as much as we will get from adults Canada-wide. Plenty of vaccine hesitations amongst my friendship group...a personal decision I guess.

I got my vacc today, courtesy of the weird hotspot rules. Not complaining though!

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On 5/9/2021 at 4:46 PM, SpaceChampion said:

This "short" census is way too long.

I hope everybody has done their census response!

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Update 

May    4Tu   5We   6Th    7Fr    8Sa   9Su  10Mo  11Tu

BC      697    572    694   722    596   605    558    515         

AB    1743  2271  2211  1980 2042  1633  1597  1449

SK      189    196    156    295   269    177    147    186

MB     291    272    363    502   488    532    502    329

ON   2791  2941  3424  3166 2864  3216  2716  2073  

PQ     797    915    907    919   958    960    662    660 

NB        4       11      11       8       8        6      11       2  

NS     153    175    182    227   163    165    121    118

PE         1        0         2       1        0        0        1       0

NL         4       6         6       7        6        5        3      15

North    7      19      25       2        7        5       10     26

Total 6689  7378  7981  7829  7401  7304  6326  5373

I almost don't want to mention we seem to be trending in the right direction for fear of jinxing the country, but we do seem to be trending in the right direction. I hope NS gets well below 100 cases this week, I hope AB gets below 1000 and MB gets below 200. I hate seeing the fact the NWT added 10 more cases and NL had 15 out of the blue. Nunavut added another 14 cases today.

Ontario and Alberta both announced they won't use the AZ vaccine for first shots anymore. The news comes just as we are about to receive the first shipment of AZ in a while, about 650,000 doses iirc. I expect other provinces to follow their example and use AZ only for second shots going forward. Ontario cases of VITT (vaccine induced thrombosis) were running at 1 in a 100,000, but then a few more cases popped up dropping the rate to about 1 in 60,000, and cases outside of Ontario are running at 1 in 55,000. Data from the UK, however, shows cases from second shots run at a rate of 1 in a million, so doing second shots seems safe. Canada has now vaccinated more than 40% of the population with at least a single dose and 48.4% of those over 16, we'll go over 50% on Thursday. Everyone over 40 in Ontario can receive a vaccine now, and in many high risk areas it's everyone over 16. Alberta has announced everyone over 12 can book an appointment, and I think Saskatchewan is going down through the 20s every day this week, one year at a time.

I thought I'd be able to say we have now received 20 M doses of vaccine, but the CTV tracker shows us about 100,000 short of that number today. The federal website shows over 20 M distributed, but there always seems a to be a small time lag between the two. With a good steady supply of vaccine coming in, provinces are starting to announce 2nd dose rollouts. Ontario says health care workers and some other essential workers can get second doses, as well as persons with certain medical conditions. I mentioned that the region of Peel, a very hot spot in Ontario, will try to vaccinate 150,000 people this week, and one of the things they are going to experiment with is a 24-hour a day vaccination clinic. It will be interesting to see how that works out. They hope to hit a 75% vaccinated level by the end of the month.

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I guess the good news as just saw in the Globe and Mail is that Canada has the highest vaccination rate amongst the G20. 

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The federal government has given a bit of a roadmap for the summer and what needs to be done to start relaxing restrictions. The goal is to get 75% of the population vaccinated with one shot and 20% with two, by the end of June or start of July.  I think that's 75% of those eligible to be vaccinated. If you think that's optimistic, yesterday we crossed the 50% line, as predicted. Looking at CTV's vaccine tracker, as of today we have about 4 M vaccine doses in the pipeline for administration. We are regularly doing the mid 300,000s, and Ontario keeps saying we can really ramp up. We did receive 655,000 AZ yesterday, and I hope the federal government tells the provinces to start on 2nd doses for everyone who got AZ asap. Most of the provinces have now said no more first doses for AZ, I bet Quebec will start in with AZ 2nd doses very quickly. And next week we get 3.6 M Pfizer doses, which will bring us up to 24 M doses received. We will receive 13 M Pfizer in the month of June, so this looks very doable.

The population over 16 looks like 31.6 M people, so if we have about 40 M doses by the end of June, we'll be there. And provinces will be allowing vaccinations for those over 12 years old. I saw a number of interviews with teens and they were pretty keen on getting vaccinated, so their lives can get back to normal. I don't know how many million 12-15 year-olds we have. 

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Yeah, it’s a weird roll out in AB. 
 

I went to sign my 13 yo up for Pfizer, and after waiting 3.5 hours in queue the online options were for rehouse born between 2004 and 2009, which allowed me to sign the 11 yo up too, same date, same time. 
 

They might turn her away at the appointment, I don’t know. She’d only be 6 months off 12 but I guess we’ll see.

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1 hour ago, JEORDHl said:

Yeah, it’s a weird roll out in AB. 
 

I went to sign my 13 yo up for Pfizer, and after waiting 3.5 hours in queue the online options were for rehouse born between 2004 and 2009, which allowed me to sign the 11 yo up too, same date, same time. 
 

They might turn her away at the appointment, I don’t know. She’d only be 6 months off 12 but I guess we’ll see.

I could have sworn that I heard that children had to be 12 at the time they were receiving the vaccine, unlike the way they were rolling out adult vaccines, that, for example, if the age was 45 it was anyone turning 45 during the year. Well, you'll find out. Glad you got bookings!

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Posted (edited)

Update 

May    7Fr     8Sa   9Su  10Mo  11Tu  12We  13Th  14Fr

BC      722    596    605    558     515    600    587   494         

AB    1980  2042  1633  1597   1449  1799  1558  1433

SK      195    269    177    147     186    183    223    227

MB     502    488    532    502     329    364    560    491

ON   3166  2864  3216  2716   2073  2320  2759  2362 

PQ     919    958    960    662     660    745    781    838 

NB         8       8        6      11         2        9      16        5  

NS     227    163    165    121    118     149    110    117

PE         1        0        0        1        0         0        1        2 

NL         7        6        5        3      15       10       7        6

North    2        7        5      10      26       10      13      12

Total 7829  7401  7304  6326  5373  6189  6615  5987

Doing some quick math, the 7-day average for Canada was 6,456 yesterday, last Friday it was 7,670. Manitoba, Alberta and Nova Scotia are still struggling. In other news, I saw a story this week about the secretive nature of Covid-19 numbers in BC, which rather startled me. I can look at the Toronto's public health website and get detailed information about where the outbreaks are, and so can people in their communities across the country. Not, apparently, in BC, where the information is tightly controlled. Weird. The stuff hit the fan when somebody leaked the breakdown of numbers a few days ago. The numbers in Manitoba have exceeded their worst case scenario. The public health official says lots of people have admitted getting together with other people, contrary to the rules.

Vaccination doses. We administered 436k on Thursday, I wonder if we did better yesterday. Our 7-day rolling average was .91 per 100 people, which is, indeed, the highest in the G-20. The US is now all the way down to .58. I think Bahrain and Uruguay are ahead of us. I believe both countries are using Sinovac.

While typing this Ontario's number came out, 2,584. Disappointing to see it go up.

In other, shocking, news, Maj.-Gen. Dany Fortin, the person doing the logistics for Canada's vaccine distribution plan, has had to step down because of an allegation of sexual misconduct prior to 2015. I'm very sad about that, for months he's been like a steady rock, calm and straightforward no matter what happened. And patient, responding to all questions, no matter how aggressive or stupid. 

 

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Posted (edited)

Ontario is now opening up vaccine eligibility for all 18+s starting tomorrow. Presumably we will start seeing a decline in demand for first shots soon, as around 2/3 of Ontarians will have had their first shots by the end of the month. 

We will also be passing the US very soon in terms of % of population to have at least one shot...demand there has tapered off quickly. 

In less positive news, we are about to tick over 25,000 (officially recorded) fatalities due to COVID. 

Edited by Paxter

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36 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Ontario is now opening up vaccine eligibility for all 18+s starting tomorrow. Presumably we will start seeing a decline in demand for first shots soon, as around 2/3 of Ontarians will have had their first shots by the end of the month. 

We will also be passing the US very soon in terms of % of population to have at least one shot...demand there has tapered off quickly. 

In less positive news, we are about to tick over 25,000 (officially recorded) fatalities due to COVID. 

Ontario is getting 2.4 M doses this week, which is 15% of the population. We’ve vaccinated 54% of the adult population, so that should put us at 70% by the end of next week!

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It seems that the rest of the world is safe from any attack from Canada as just about every general in the armed forces seems to like having their pants down around their ankles, making it really hard to focus on military matters. 

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Posted (edited)

I was looking at some vaccine stats...how is it that only 68.8% of females over 80 are vaccinated (at least one dose)? That seems incredibly low to me.

The equivalent stat for males was closer to 75%. I can only guess that the average age of females over 80 is different and must be leading to different decisions?

Source was the Globe and Mail vaccine tracker. 

ETA: BTW, my 2/3 estimate was for all citizens, not just adults. I agree that 70% of adults is looking quite feasible soon.

Edited by Paxter

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