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Fragile Bird

Canadian Politics: Is that a Light at the End of the Tunnel?

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I know, I know, I’m making excuses for her. She used to be so rational. I think they convinced her it was for the good of the province or something like that.

Edited by Fragile Bird
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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I know, I know, I’m making excuses for her. She used to be so rationale. I think they convinced her it was for the good of the province or something like that.

When Ford is making better pandemic decisions than you, you know you’re in trouble!

Oh and SK is hot on the heels of Alberta right now. Crazy stuff and for nothing considering that the other provinces have largely the same freedoms but health care systems that are at least somewhat below breaking point.

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Did my duty. Traffic was epic this evening. Not sure if that is because of the election or if a lot more people than usual started back at the office today.

Polling station was quite busy, but the queues were orderly, quiet and efficient. Line of maybe 30 people and I got out in about 10 minutes  My poll worker was my neighbour, she always wears denim overalls and plaid shirts. It all felt very Canadian.

Props to all the volunteers today!

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Gotta be honest I've no idea how things are gonna shake out tonight. Been watching the polls, but polls are national not riding specific. I've also been on Twitter way to much and the Liberal hate is, well Twitter Liberal hate. I suspect these two things have set me up for a worse outcome than what will happen, but I don't want to get my hopes up.

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Yeah, just watching the count even though our votes don't really matter, but ours come in first. Not that I need an excuse to drink wine, but...there's wine...

 

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CTV website has called it for the Liberals, but not as majority/minority.

@Maithanet generally most federal elections are called around this time EST because of the sheer number of ridings in Ontario and Quebec and the time zones. It's a little uh imperfect in a country with so many time zones and unequal distribution of population. 

I now see CBC also made the call.

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10 minutes ago, kairparavel said:

CTV website has called it for the Liberals, but not as majority/minority.

 

So what does that mean? Also I’m seeing conservatives ahead in terms of seats right now?

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5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

So what does that mean? Also I’m seeing conservatives ahead in terms of seats right now?

Are you looking at Canadian election results? The Conservatives are not ahead, at all. 

The winning party needs 170 seats for a clear majority and the Liberals have 153 with 5 ridings not reported. The Liberals will win with a minority government. So they'll have to form a coalition with the NDP to get anything done. 

So much orange on that map with so few seats. And the existence of the BQ and its resurgence is just bonkers. But look at that goose egg for PPC!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/live

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8 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I thought I was lol.

So how bad or good is this for Trudeau? 

On the one hand he didn't get the majority he clearly wanted, though on the other it wasn't a defeat and he'll be looking to form government, (as much as the other parties will try and spin it negatively). There's pretty much no chance that both the NDP and Bloc will refuse to work with him, and at any given point he can almost certainly rely on one of them going along with his plans. While to defeat him would require the Bloc, NDP, and Cons to work together. So it's just the status quo of the previous 2 years continuing. Not massive support, but not a repudiation either.

ETA: Also note that there's still a lot of mail in ballots to count. From what I've seen there's a fair bit of speculation that they'll go in favour of the Liberals so it's possible, if unlikely, that it'll flip enough seats to give the Liberals a majority.

Edited by TrueMetis

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2 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

On the one hand he didn't get the majority he clearly wanted, though on the other it wasn't a defeat and he'll be looking to form government, (as much as the other parties will try and spin it negatively). There's pretty much no chance that both the NDP and Bloc will refuse to work with him, and at any given point he can almost certainly rely on one of them going along with his plans. While to defeat him would require the Bloc, NDP, and Cons to work together. So it's just the status quo of the previous 2 years continuing. Not massive support, but not a repudiation either.

Huh this seems to made the election kinda pointless huh?

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Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Huh this seems to made the election kinda pointless huh?

Eh I don't consider any election pointless. No ultimate change in status quo is still a choice that needs to be made.

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1 minute ago, TrueMetis said:

Eh I don't consider any election pointless. No ultimate change in status quo is still a choice that needs to be made.

Ha. True enough. Well congrats on avoiding a conservative government.

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4 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Ha. True enough. Well congrats on avoiding a conservative government.

Thank you, though I want to amend the edit I made about the mail in ballots. Looking the the current results there are some ridings that are tighter than I thought, and more of them. With 1 million special ballots waiting to be counted I'm changing my prediction from unlikely to flip enough for a majority to definite possibility.

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I’m happy with result, honestly. Singh can chap my ass sometimes, but this should serve as a warning to the Liberals that they need to push left.

Blanchet with his separatist innuendo, O’Toole trying to refresh campaign talk before the knives come out, the PPC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan can fuck off into a black assholed, prolapsed and distant sun.

Edited by JEORDHl

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3 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

Thank you, though I want to amend the edit I made about the mail in ballots. Looking the the current results there are some ridings that are tighter than I thought, and more of them. With 1 million special ballots waiting to be counted I'm changing my prediction from unlikely to flip enough for a majority to definite possibility.

Are you assuming that, as happened in the US, mainly liberals (large L here) used mail-in ballots?

Since this is the first time they’ve been used it will be interesting to see if that’s true.

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