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Fragile Bird

Canadian Politics: Is that a Light at the End of the Tunnel?

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Update

Mar       16Tu  17We  18Th  19Fr  20Sa  21Su  22Mo  23Tu

BC          556    498     622    737   556    598    631    682               

AB          355    479     505    696   556    555    456    465        

SK           156     87      115    174   200    178    205   150            

MB          111     96       91      93     89      90      66      98                 

ON        1074  1508   1553  1745 1829  1791  1699  1546   

PQ           561    703    702    764    775   648    712    656         

Atl-4            9        3      11        9        5      7       12      10              

North           0        0        0        0        0      0        0        0                                  

Total        2822  3374  3599  4218  4010  3867  3781  3607

We have 800 more cases since last Tuesday. The 7-day average was 3,193, now it's 3,779. Variant cases are up everywhere.

I see that another 245,000 vaccine doses showed up on the CTV vaccine tracker, the first of more than a million arriving this week.

Friends of mine were supposed to get their AZ vaccines yesterday, but the pharmacy didn't get their supply. They thought they'd come in on Thursday. Ontario has 176,436 vaccine doses that seem to be sitting in storage, because the government doesn't want to hand them out. A supply has to be kept back in case of outbreaks somewhere. I have never heard of anything so stupid. They should be distributing 150,000 of them and just holding back 20,000 or so, especially since we aren't doing second shots for weeks. It looks like only 1,000 to 2,000 second shots are done each day. I don't know what the heck is going on in the Maritime provinces, they've given so few shots.

In the meantime, Quebec is once again forging on with new ideas. This time it's being suggested that people who have had Covid receive only one shot, that between having had the virus and receiving a first shot, they're covered just as well as someone who has received two shots. Apparently the only other country trying out this idea is France.

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There are times when I think being a federated rather than unitary state was a mistake, then I remember Harper being in charge and realize it's a crapshoot no matter what.

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Update

Mar       19Fr  20Sa  21Su  22Mo  23Tu  24We  25Th  26Fr

BC          737   556    598    631    682     716    800     908               

AB          696   556    555    456    465     692    764     717        

SK          174   200    178    205    150     190    168     213            

MB           93     89      90      66      98      81     111    116                

ON       1745  1829  1791  1699  1546  1571   2380  2169   

PQ          764    775   648    712    656     783    945    950         

Atl-4           9       5       7       12      10        6       34      21              

North         0        0       0        0        0         0        0        0                                  

Total      4218  4010  3867  3781  3607  4051  5203  5094

It's so depressing to see these numbers go up, just as vaccine is rolling in.

And speaking of vaccine, we will receive more vaccine in April than we have received in total to date. I think the number will be about 8.5 M doses, so combined with the 4.3 M single doses done so far, by the end of April we'll have more than 12 M people vaccinated with one dose, almost 1/3 of the country. That should reduce the number of infections. 

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Update

Mar       22Mo  23Tu  24We  25Th  26Fr  27Sa  28Su  29Mo  

BC          631    682     716    800     908    936    805    777                      

AB          456    465     692    764     717    668    644    545        

SK          205    150     190    168     213    224    248    202            

MB           66      98      81     111    116      57      55      53                

ON       1699   1546  1571   2380  2169  2453  2448  2094   

PQ          712    656     783     945   950  1009    917    891         

Atl-4         12      10        6       34      21      17       9      11              

North         0        0         0        0        0         0       0       0                                  

Total      3781  3607  4051   5203  5094  5364  5126  4573

Things continue to worsen across the country, with BC and Ontario being the hot spots. BC is going into a 3 week "circuit breaker" emergency restrictions. Expectations are that Ontario will announce restrictions as well. Expect more provinces to make announcements. In early March I was watching our seven day average dropping through the 2000s, and here we are at 4,717. My suspicion, from looking at Europe, is that things are going to get worse quickly. BC's weekend cases were equal to the number they had in the first two months. Ontario's numbers are at the level we had before Christmas when we announced our lockdown. I caught a news broadcast out of Calgary where a doctor was talking about people showing up in the ICU being in their 50s, some in their 40s, and a few in their 30s. The same is happening here in Ontario.

I've said before I've been watching Poland because their population is almost the same as ours. In the last couple of weeks their numbers rose to the 10s of thousands, then the 20s, and then up to 35,000. They've dropped back down a bit but they are still very high. That could easily happen to us in the next few weeks.

On the bright side, the vaccine situation is improving. It's a shame about the mixed messages we're getting regarding AZ, people don't know what to believe. In Europe the blood-clot issue started as 1 case in a million, but in a couple of countries the rate is 1 in 100,000. In case that worries you, think about the fact that the rate of strokes in women who take birth control pills is 8 in 100,000 and no country has tried to ban them for that reason. Pfizer will be shipping us 1 M vaccine doses a week, and today Trudeau announced that it goes up to 2 M a week in May. It was also announced that by the end of June we will receive a total of 36 M vaccine doses, without including any AZ in the number, which means enough vaccine for every adult in Canada plus 6 M second doses. Of course we all know that not all people will get vaccinated. If 20% don't, it means 12 M second doses by the end of June. Also announced today was the fact that we will start to receive J&J vaccine at the end of April, although no quantities have been given. And presumably we will hear about Novavax being approved in the next few weeks.

Hang in there, stay at home, wear a mask when you go out, wash your hands, and stay in your bubble.

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The situation is so frustrating here in Quebec. For once we've had a slower start on this wave than other provinces (third time's a charm!) but meanwhile our government continues to open things up and this week demanded that high school students all be in our overcrowded, poorly ventilated schools full time, even though the variants have been rapidly spreading through schools. Always with the justification of "we have to think of kids' mental health!" (aka, we need their parents at work) and "hospitalizations are relatively low" (aka, we think you're too stupid to have noticed after one year that hospitalizations are always a couple weeks behind rising cases in this pandemic, and deaths a couple weeks behind hospitalizations). I think it's going to be a very shitty April in this province and country. And then... hopefully the vaccines will save us from ourselves and our governments.

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Whoa. Have you all been seeing heavy rotation of ads from a milk company called Fairlife, talking about how it’s Canadian milk? I knew that when it first came to Canada it was American milk, so I thought I would look it up to see what the hell the story was.

The fucking company is a Coca-Cola company. Coca-Cola is trying to destroy Canadian dairy farmers. Yes, it is now buying Canadian milk, but I trust Coca-Cola about as far as I can spit, which isn’t very far.

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Posted (edited)

Update

Mar       27Sa  28Su  29Mo  30Tu  31We   1Th   2Fr  

BC          936    805    777     840    1013   832   1074                      

AB          668    644    545     576      871   875   1081        

SK          224    248    202     164      191   254     280            

MB           57      55      53      77         71    59       -                

ON       2453  2448  2094   2336    2333  2557   3089 

PQ        1009    917    891     864    1025  1271  1314         

Atl-4         17       9      11        22        15     18      13               

North         0       0        0          0           1       0       0                                 

Total     5364  5126  4573   4879     5520  5808  6830

Just numbers in this post, since I will also update the weekend.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Update

Mar       30Tu  31We   1Th   2Fr    3Sa    4Su    5Mo    6Tu  

BC          840    1013   832  1074  1077   999    890   1068                       

AB          576      871   875  1081  1071   948    887    931        

SK           164     191   199    254    280    221   219    217               

MB           77       71     59       -      181       -     135     62             

ON       2336   2333  2557  3089  3009  3041  2938  3065 

PQ          864   1025  1271  1314  1282  1154  1252  1168         

Atl-4         22      15      18      13      13      18      13       9           

North         0        1        0       0         0        0        1       0                                

Total      4879  5520  5808  6830  6913  6381  6335  6520

So, here we are again, back at the abyss. Provinces are setting record numbers of daily cases, BC has, Alberta has, Saskatchewan has. The north has made great headway at first vaccinations of those over 16, Yukon at 69.5%, the NWT at 67.8% and Nunavut at 51.2%, and collectively have reported 2 new cases in the last three weeks. Meanwhile, variants are making up more and more cases across the country. Peel announced that schools would be closed to in-person learning, and Toronto followed suit today, much to the annoyance of the premier. And in the meantime the Atlantic provinces appear to have things in check.

In other news, the Globe and Mail is saying in a stunning story that deaths in the west appear to have been much higher last year than initially reported. Much, much higher. Tara Moriarty, a professor of laboratory medicine and pathobiology (I didn't even know that was a word) at the U. of Toronto, studied 'excess deaths' across the country. While we all looked with horror at deaths in Quebec and Ontario, it appears Covid deaths in BC may be 6 times higher than reported and deaths in Saskatchewan may be 10 times higher. "I think we had a much bigger epidemic than we knew" said the professor, in a classic understatement. Even after subtracting out drug overdose deaths, BC appears to have had 1,650 excess deaths last year, but only 290 deaths attributed to Covid-19. Saskatchewan reported 29 Covid deaths, but had 293 excess deaths. Alberta, 1,049 v. 401, Ontario 4,037 v. 3,372. It looks like our Covid death toll last year was about 3,000 higher than reported. Only the North and the Atlantic Region did not have a big discrepancy between reported Covid deaths and excess deaths.

There is some speculation that many seniors had either asymptomatic Covid or symptoms that appeared to be colds, and with weakened immune systems passed away from the virus and were never tested.

On the good news front, as of today we have now had 10,090,200 doses of vaccine delivered. That means by the start of next week we should have close to 30% of the Canadian population older than 16 vaccinated. 730 k Canadians have received a second dose, so we won't hit 10M with this week's doses but we'll be there by the end of next week.

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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Looks like Ontario is going to move up to a Stay at Home order.

As always with that useless buffoon Ford. Too little too late. 

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When this is all over there needs to be a commission to analyze provincial and federal government response and the results need to be posted everywhere.

It just pisses me off that we could have responded to this so much better, yet if anything the damn responses are getting worse.

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In some good news, apparently about 60% of indigenous peoples in Canada (over 18) have received their first shot of the vaccine, and in some areas of the North it’s 70%. I also heard that in Quebec they will start setting up second shot clinics. I gather the doses are pretty well all Moderna, because it’s less complicated to handle than Pfizer. 
 

As a result cases have dropped by 85% among indigenous populations.

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Doug Ford has most certainly been the Worst Case Ontario. 

In the meantime, we have a 8 active cases in NL, with the February outbreak well behind us. There were 3 new ones today, which at this point feels like a lot again. 

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I have to give Ford credit for getting his vaccine today, he did get the AZ vaccine, so that was a good thing. I saw a story from Alberta that there are vaccine clinics that are almost empty because people won’t take the AZ vaccine. With case numbers skyrocketing, perhaps people will change their minds instead of holding out for something bettter.

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I think QC is potentially reaping the reward of holding back second doses. Hospitalizations there are increasing at a much slower rate than Ontario despite similar case increases. 

That’s speculation though - I can’t back it up with any evidence.

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So I've seen certain center-right folks in the US getting really upset about this over the past day, but is it going to actually be any sort of issue in Canada?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/11/trudeau-hailfax-security-forum-taiwan-480722

Quote

The organizers of one of the world’s most prestigious defense gatherings are in the midst of an uncomfortable international standoff between the Canadian government and China over a major award they had planned to give to the president of Taiwan.

The standstill, which is ongoing and has not been previously reported, has created tension between the Halifax International Security Forum and the Canadian government, which is a major sponsor of the forum.

Late last year, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the forum’s organizers decided to give its John McCain Prize for Leadership in Public Service to Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. Cindy McCain, a member of the forum’s board of directors, greenlit the decision to honor Tsai with the prize named after her late husband.

It would have been the third time the HFX presented the McCain award. The first, in 2018, went to the people of Lesbos, Greece, for their efforts to save refugees; the second, in 2019, went to the citizen protesters in Hong Kong. HFX planned to give the third to Taiwan’s president for standing strong against China’s relentless pressure.

When Canadian officials learned of the forum’s plans, they made it clear that if organizers gave the honor to Tsai, the Canadian government would pull support — and funding — from HFX.

 

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