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Assassination attempt on Bran in GOT


Monster_Under_the_Bed

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9 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Sure. And it's so common with real people that our entire justice system assumes that people can't be objective when it comes to tragedies that befall loved ones. Your frustration is certainly valid - I'm very frustrated with it too, but your problem is with human nature. Catelyn is only a mirror of it in this case.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oresteia

What does the Oresteia have to do with anything? It's a story about justice, revenge and sacrifice, no one does anything stupid just because of their emotions

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Aside from the other concerns that involve spoilers from Swords, two other things are extra weird about the dagger plot

- The catspaw was a rare specimen, that was paid lavishly in advance and actually carried on with the assassination of a Great Lord's child. 99 out of 100 other such fellows would get their bag of silver to White Harbor, get to the free cities and sell the dagger to live about a year in debauchery.

- Why did Littlefinger risk the lie? Varys was right in front of him and could have pointed the lie if he wanted, as well as Tyrion himself once he got to the city (his abduction was due to a chance encounter), and when taken to the king the lie would emerge and Littlefinger would have been in a tight spot. He could have achieved the same objective (putting Starks and Lannisters even more against each other) by simply telling the TRUTH. "Hey Cat, this dagger here, I lost on a bet to Bob. He must have taken it with him to the North. I don't believe he would be involved with the atempted murder on your child, oh no, but someone close to him, could. Maybe one of his Lannister in-laws, like the Imp, perhaps?"

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Just now, Alyn Oakenfist said:

What does the Oresteia have to do with anything? It's a story about justice, revenge and sacrifice, no one does anything stupid just because of their emotions

Um, yes, they do. That's actually one of the major themes.

Watch any real life crime show that's all over tv these days. Friends and families are so desperate for resolution that they bold-face ignore serious questions about an accused suspect's guilt because emotionally they need someone - anyone - to be found guilty. Again, our criminal and justice systems are based on the general assumption that people can't be objective when it's too close to home. 

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Just now, Lollygag said:

Um, yes, they do. That's actually one of the major themes.

When, where? The whole plot of the series, after Iphigenia suffers a small case of human sacrifices is about the ever escalating cycle of vengeance. Agamemnon's wife kills him, then Orestes kills her, then the furies try to make his life a living hell for it, and finally Athena brings it hope by breaking the cycle and establishing the defense, prosecution and jury system, because why not? There is no blind emotional stupidity just revenge there

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3 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Um, yes, they do. That's actually one of the major themes.

Watch any real life crime show that's all over tv these days. Friends and families are so desperate for resolution that they bold-face ignore serious questions about an accused suspect's guilt because emotionally they need someone - anyone - to be found guilty. Again, our criminal and justice systems are based on the general assumption that people can't be objective when it's too close to home. 

We don't even have to look to the classics for this lesson on the difference between justice and vengence... although I did love the reference!

Ned explains it in Game of Thrones:

Quote

"Do we have your leave to take our vengeance against Ser Gregor, then?" Marq Piper asked the throne.
"Vengeance?" Ned said. "I thought we were speaking of justice. Burning Clegane's fields and slaughtering his people will not restore the king's peace, only your injured pride." He glanced away before the young knight could voice his outraged protest, and addressed the villagers. "People of Sherrer, I cannot give you back your homes or your crops, nor can I restore your dead to life. But perhaps I can give you some small measure of justice, in the name of our king, Robert."
Every eye in the hall was fixed on him, waiting. Slowly Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness. "The First Men believed that the judge who called for death should wield the sword, and in the north we hold to that still. I mislike sending another to do my killing … yet it seems I have no choice." He gestured at his broken leg.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard XI

 

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9 minutes ago, Leonardo Abreu said:

Aside from the other concerns that involve spoilers from Swords

The OP did say it was a reread... 

9 minutes ago, Leonardo Abreu said:

Why did Littlefinger risk the lie?

I don't think we ever get a great explanation, but maybe he is just being an irrational jerk for the sake of being a jerk! Stirring up trouble might present him an opportunity, and perhaps he didn't think he'd be in much trouble if the lie was found out? Low risk high reward play at the spur of the moment? Shooting from the hip here... I don't know.

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1 minute ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

When, where? The whole plot of the series, after Iphigenia suffers a small case of human sacrifices is about the ever escalating cycle of vengeance. Agamemnon's wife kills him, then Orestes kills her, then the furies try to make his life a living hell for it, and finally Athena brings it hope by breaking the cycle and establishing the defense, prosecution and jury system, because why not? There is no blind emotional stupidity just revenge there

Revenge is usually blind emotional stupidity. That's the point. Follow that road and it goes nowhere good. the destructivness and bias of revenge is a major theme throughout lit, tv, movies going back to the earliest history that we know of to all manner of current works. Make the distinction between revenge and justice and recognize our own limitations when the circumstances are too close because that's how a lot of us will roll in that situation. Human nature.

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10 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

The OP did say it was a reread... 

I don't think we ever get a great explanation, but maybe he is just being an irrational jerk for the sake of being a jerk! Stirring up trouble might present him an opportunity, and perhaps he didn't think he'd be in much trouble if the lie was found out? Low risk high reward play at the spur of the moment? Shooting from the hip here... I don't know.

It is a reread, although it's been about 7 years since I finished the last book and I didn't even realize how much I forgot in that time.

I read up a little bit that the prevailing theory is that it was Joffrey who sent the assassin to kill Bran. It doesn't really make sense as he had no motive. I am now even more convinced though that it was Cersei. Jaime would not go along with the plan to send an assassin so she acted alone without telling him. The dagger that LF lost in a bet was won by Robert - the king. It makes perfect sense then that Cersei would have the assassin use that dagger. It would be traced back to the Baratheons and they would fall out with the Starks. Bran would be silenced and at the same time a conflict would arise that would be VERY beneficial for the Lannisters. Ned Stark would not become Hand of the King and there might even be a war. This way all the pieces fall into place and make sense.

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Both Tyrion and Jaime separetely come at the conclusion that Joffrey did it in an atempt to please his father somehow (this point is realistic, a psycho point of view) and never again it is talked about, maybe to rest all the holes involving the dagger.

if Joffrey did it, either the Hound was involved as well or are we to believe that the 12 year old Heir to the King, at the top of all his winsdom showed in the next books, managed to hatch the plot, evade his bodyguard and find a killer willing to do an assassination atempt against a Lord’s child in a castle he has been for a few weeks at most (and an extra reliable one like mentioned above). Probably Joffrey ordered the Hound to do the deed, and uwilling to obey the order himself convinced Joffrey to go with the catspaw, which he found himself.

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On 12/30/2020 at 8:34 PM, Monster_Under_the_Bed said:

He's still the queen's brother, Tywin's son, and a very wealthy man. Easily among 10 most important people who arrived at Winterfell with the king. Even if the other Lannisters hate him, and not all do as Jaime has genuine affection for him, should he come to any harm, he could easily be a pretext to conflict. Besides, very few men are wholly without ambition, even if they pretend not to care for the time being.

Actually, Tyrion gets an allowance. There is no mention of him in the books having any wealth at all of his own. Being someone's son or brother is only significant on its if you are that someone's heir. Otherwise it is only as important as said someone choses to make it. And both Tywin and Cersei would rather pretend that Tyrion didn't exist. Barring the events in the books Tyrion would have been quite irrelevent.

 

On 12/30/2020 at 8:34 PM, Monster_Under_the_Bed said:

The important part is LF owning up that the attempted murder weapon used to be his. From that point on it's crucial to trace what happened to the dagger afterwards and confirm Petyr's story in the first place. There were presumably some witnesses to the bet at least. LF's small lie could have been discovered almost immediately, which would lead to further questions. 

Littelfinger could own up to owning the weapon or have the Starks finding out on their own from Aron Santagar as per Cat's original plan. The difference for LF would have been a lost opportunity to influence the Starks and what they did next. Gooing to Santagar meant that they would be spotted as both LF and Varys demonstrated.

People would have remembered that Jaime fell to a kid. People might know that Tyrion habitually bets on his brother. It is extremely unlikely for anyone to remember who or what LF had bet on in that particular day. The only who would know for sure is Santagar whose job presumably among other things is to oversee the royal armory.

On 12/30/2020 at 9:45 PM, Leonardo Abreu said:

- The catspaw was a rare specimen, that was paid lavishly in advance and actually carried on with the assassination of a Great Lord's child. 99 out of 100 other such fellows would get their bag of silver to White Harbor, get to the free cities and sell the dagger to live about a year in debauchery.

Considering who asked the catspaw, it wouldn't have been that different from one of the Seven coming to Earth in giving him that mission. He would have been fearfull to disobey, elated of the importance shown to him and hopeful that he might be further elevated following his service. They do take their aristocracy crap seriously. Besides, once he had taken the silver the easiest way out would have been with the Robert's entourage where there would have been the chance to be spotted by Joffrey. After that getting out of Winterfell undetected is not as easy as it sounds. It is supposed to be a fortress.

 

On 12/30/2020 at 9:45 PM, Leonardo Abreu said:

- Why did Littlefinger risk the lie? Varys was right in front of him and could have pointed the lie if he wanted, as well as Tyrion himself once he got to the city (his abduction was due to a chance encounter), and when taken to the king the lie would emerge and Littlefinger would have been in a tight spot. He could have achieved the same objective (putting Starks and Lannisters even more against each other) by simply telling the TRUTH. "Hey Cat, this dagger here, I lost on a bet to Bob. He must have taken it with him to the North. I don't believe he would be involved with the atempted murder on your child, oh no, but someone close to him, could. Maybe one of his Lannister in-laws, like the Imp, perhaps?"

Several reasons actually. Regardless of how much Littelfinger wants to downplay the significance of the dagger as evidence it is pretty solid. Robert's weapons would be valuable for more than one reason. Some would be girfts from dignitaries, others will sport decorations of precious metals and gems. They would most certainly be looked after, maintained, accounted for and guarded. I'm pretty sure there's a guy whose job it is to polish Robert's hammer. Ok, there are two, Tyrek and Lancel. So, there is reason one. It makes it look like the dagger's provenance can't be reliably ascertained. Which is not the case. The second reason is that it points directly to the royal family. Does Tyrion have access to the royal armory? Officially, I doubt it. At the very least, I don't believe he could've taken anything without note of it being made. The ones who would have had free access to said weapon would have been Robert, Cersei and their kids. Littelfinger's best guess would have had to be Cersei. There goes reason three. Jaime and Cersei are not reasonable people and not to be fucked with. They kill first and think about the consequences later. If he suspected what they did (and he'd be half right) there is no good scenario for him if they learned LF implicated them, even tangentially, even if they weren't actually involved.

The main reason is that the dagger seems to confirm Cat's speculations about Bran's fall. It points directly to Cersei and it is solid evidence implicating her. On top of it can come Stannis' claims and Lysa's own accusations, wrapping everyting together in a neat little bow around Cersei's neck, leaving Stannis as the heir and Robert in a very bad mood. Does that sound like a desirable outcome for LF to you?

As to why Tyrion. In keeping up with the narrative he had already set up through Lysa, he is the only Lannister who he could safely accuse, far less likely to murder him than his own siblings and convenienly not present to be confronted about this whole afair. Also, a dwarf (let's face it Westerosi are both superstitious and prejudiced) and unlikely to know anything about the bloody dagger.

I can think of two reasons of why Varys didn't intervene. At some point LF says that he has Varys' balls. That could be true. I think it more likely that Varys is the kind of person who would carefully  consider whether any given situation benefits his plans. I believe he ulitmately concluded that it would be more useful to him if he let it play out.

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On 12/31/2020 at 1:15 AM, Mourning Star said:

LFs tale is important to the plot, but not the mystery of who sent the assassin to kill Bran.

Well given that we have PoVs from Jaime, Cersei, and Tyrion we can be pretty sure it wasn't them.

Mance Rayder has the most obvious motive, and the most to gain, from Bran being killed with the King's dagger. Mance is planning to lead an army over the Wall and into the Seven Kingdoms. He knows his history, as I tried to point out with the quote above, and the assassination attempt on Bran spawns a conflict in the south, leaving the North open to invasion.

And this is what makes LF such a great misdirection, it makes sense that he would want to incite a struggle between Stark and Lannister... it's just that he isn't the only one for whom this motive makes sense, it works even better to explain why Mance would send a man to kill Bran with a stolen dagger.

LF causes chaos as a way of making opportunities for his own gain.

Mance has a plan for which this chaos is exceptionally useful.

I do again like the find on Mance and theory, but a couple things to consider also.  you mentioned that the library was the target.  he may have taken something from the library, but the library was the distraction to kill bran, not the other way around. I could see Mance lighting a fire to cover his tracks on what was stolen, but then the assassination seems to me to be an odd coincidence (just as needing something from the library just as King Robert is in winterfell creating such a perfect opportunity to set him up by having Stark's son killed by what would seem to be king Robert himself?  then LF adds to the intrigue of Mance's plot by lying about the dagger and setting up Tyrion?  It's interesting but just too many pieces falling into place.  I could have seen Mance climbing the wall during Robert's visit as a distraction to grab a book, but even knowing of Robert's coming and successfully scaling the wall is a bit ridiculous in itself (how in hell would have have heard about it in time to make the trip.  It's plausible that he never went to Winterfell at all during the first book and it was simply building himself up to Jon.  

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On 1/1/2021 at 7:27 PM, Mad King Bolton said:

but the library was the distraction to kill bran, not the other way around.

What makes you so sure of this? The attempted killing of Bran certainly worked to distract from the library burning... no questions about why burn the library and no looking for another person involved. (edit: Obviously, there is also a motive to implicate Robert/Lannisters in a crime against the Starks since Mance plans to invade.)

The King's party arriving provides the cover Mance needs to get into Winterfell. 

As for how he heard... it doesn't take much. Word is sent to Benjen at the Wall and the news travels from there to the Free Folk.

Mance's ability to tell Jon details about the night, like who was singing what, is why we believe him in the first place.

So we know he was there and the timing question is moot... the wheel house and company moved super slow I suppose.

I find it much more difficult to believe Mance's motive was just to see Robert than that Robert's arrival was an opportunity for Mance to get into Winterfell.

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59 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I find it much more difficult to believe Mance's motive was just to see Robert than that Robert's arrival was an opportunity for Mance to get into Winterfell.

I forget, but doesn't Mance also tell Jon that he had a good look at him at Winterfell as well.  I think the Stark kids having direwolves beyond the Wall would have more significance to him and the free folk.

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I think Mance's motive is about starting crap between the Starks and southern houses to get them to neglect the Wall for lack of resources to do both though the library may also be important. Osha outright says Robb should be riding North, not South. Mance needs through the Wall to survive and the NW and the North are hard sells to let the wildlings through which means invasion of some sort. Better against only the depleted NW than also against Ned with the North rallied behind him too. Having been in the NW, Mance would be aware of the bad blood between Stark and Lannister as it seems to have been well-established by RR though we're not told where it comes from exactly.

On Joff, if GRRM says it's him, then it is. Think Mance's involvement is being kept hidden because it's spoilery somehow.

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9 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I have never heard GRRM actually say it was Jof, but if I missed it please point me to the quote!

Search isn't my friend today but did find this from a forum mod.

 

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3 minutes ago, Lollygag said:
14 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I have never heard GRRM actually say it was Jof, but if I missed it please point me to the quote!

Search isn't my friend today but did find this from a forum mod.

Didn't Preston Jacobs debunk the Joffrey sent the catspaw theory into the ground?

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12 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I have seen claims that GRRM said it was Joffrey but I've never actually seen a quote or video or GRRM actually saying it... 

I don’t believe he actually says it’s Joff, he just says the catspaw mystery should be resolved by ASOS.

Edit: does anyone have the quote? I can’t find it through searching the web...grr

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2 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Didn't Preston Jacobs debunk the Joffrey sent the catspaw theory into the ground?

I don't know. I kinda avoid him except for his show critiques which are bloody fantastic.

I agree that it being just Joff doesn't work as it's a complicated plot and GRRM repeats over and over and over about how Joff is an idiot. He also blows apart the idea that Joff did it to impress Robert when he has Tyrion give his condolences over Robert's death, and Joff is like "who?"

Tyrion I goes into how Joff was obnoxious about Bran's fall so it's easy to speculate that Mance noticed and  masquerading as a singer went up to Joff with the plan and led him along to start stuff to get the Starks away from the Wall. Mance not really wanting Bran dead and only wanting the conflict started explains why the Catspaw was told Catelyn wouldn't be there when she was there all the time and how Summer somehow learned how doorknobs work as he'd been shut outside. Mance would recognize Bran for a warg and could let Summer in to make sure Cat and Bran survived the attempt to tell the tale.

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