Discontinuity with Mance's characterization

[Mithras]

Why did he do the things he did in ADwD? In terms of personal motivation and characterization, I don’t see a natural, seamless progression from ASoS to ADwD for Mance. There seems to be a discontinuity. Without some further material and the expected payoff, I don’t think Mance’s survival is justified enough in the current books.

Originally, the main goal of Mance was to lead his people to the safety of the south of the Wall. But he was not willing to sacrifice their freedom in the land of the “kneelers”. That much he made it clear to Jon in their negotiation. But in ADwD, Mance seems to have let go his lifelong quest although majority of his people are still in grave danger beyond the Wall. Moreover, his people who passed the Wall do not seem to have a bright future as well.

GRRM provides the reason why Mance is bothered to help them as

Quote

 

“I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me.”

“Our false king has a prickly manner,” Melisandre told Jon Snow, “but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life.”

 

However, the Mance we knew was no craven and no kneeler. He would not be intimidated by death, which leaves the survival of his son as his only motivation. But how can he trust Mel with his son’s life? Is he stupid enough to believe in Mel’s words and promises? This might be yet another clue for Stannis being actually involved in the glamor switch. If Stannis swore to protect Mance’s son for his obedience and services, Mance might have been inclined to agree. But then again, this meant Mance was foreswearing his lifelong mission of bringing his people to safety and preserving their freedom. Moreover, if Mance was going to kneel to Stannis like this, why did he not do that publicly and remove the necessity for glamor? Yet another discrepancy that needs to be addressed. Naturally, discrepancies like this draw lots of tinfoil as a corpse draws crows. Most readers instinctively realize that there must be additional material for all this to make sense.

Finally, I want to talk about where this Mance problem comes from. I think before the 5 year gap was scrapped, Mance was destined to a far different route that was in line with his prior characterization. When that plan was scrapped, Mance became aimless and kind of a loose end. After releasing AFfC, GRRM greatly expanded the northern story for ADwD while inventing lots of new stuff. That is when he gave the current storyline to Mance. But what was his original storyline before the 5 year gap? Recall that GRRM wrote ASoS with the intention of a 5 year gap to follow. Below is my general sketch for Mance's original story:

1. fArya is introduced in ASoS and she is destined to Dreadfort. She has her reunion with Theon at Dreadfort.
2. Mance is secretly spared via a glamor switch by Stannis/Mel just the same. But only because of his knowledge of the Others.
3. Stannis takes Deepwood Motte and Asha becomes his prisoner just the same. But the campaign of Stannis against the Boltons slowly gets bogged down and he needs something big to change the status quo.
4. Mance is given the mission to raid Dreadfort and kidnap fArya from there. Asha is also involved in this mission along with remaining comrades and longboats. Mance kidnaps fArya and Theon from Dreadfort. But he does not return to Stannis. He betrays him and kills Asha. Theon remains as the POV beside Mance as his prisoner.
5. Mance flees to Hardhome to rally his people once again. This time, fArya is Mance’s greatest leverage for the safety of his son and the terms he would require from Stannis/Northmen. fArya as Mance’s hostage fits well with the original 1993 outline idea of Catelyn and her children falling into the hands of Mance Rayder.
6. Hardhome is attacked by the Others. Mance somehow flees to Braavos with fArya, Theon and the other survivors. The Lyseni slaver ship that took women and children from Hardhome and ended up in Braavos might be a remnant of this plan.
7. In Braavos, instead of Dareon (who would have stayed at the Wall with Sam), Arya kills Mance and gets blinded for it. You should notice the similarity with Arya killing an oathbreaker crow who happens to be a very good singer and getting blinded for it. I think Dareon inherited this role from Mance.
8. fArya dedicates herself to the House of Black & White in return for revenge and Arya switches places with her. This way, you should notice the similarity with the origin story of the Waif.

So, this was the story for Mance before the 5 year gap was scrapped: bring Theon and fArya to Braavos and get killed by Arya. I think this story might have survived even longer, well into the writing of AFfC before the split. Justin Massey will eventually take Theon and fArya to Braavos and the merger of fArya and Arya will still take place. Justin Massey inherited this role from Mance and Arya will kill him just the same. There is very clear setup for Justin Massey betraying Stannis for fAegon or Dany and trying to claim fArya for himself. That should be the moment where Arya kills him.

As for Mance in the current version, he will end up as the next Reek. Under torture, Mance will claim that he kidnapped fArya and assassinated Roose under the orders of Jon. Ramsay will try to use that to sway some northern lords to his side instead of joining Jon. Eventually, Ramsay will kill Mance.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

12 minutes ago, Mithras said:

As for Mance in the current version, he will end up as the next Reek. Under torture, Mance will claim that he kidnapped fArya and assassinated Roose under the orders of Jon. Ramsay will try to use that to sway some northern lords to his side instead of joining Jon. Eventually, Ramsay will kill Mance.

Interesting theory, however, that would require Ramsay to live through the Battle of Winterfell and actually win (very unlikely if  you ask me) and also for Mance to break under torture, which is not actually guaranteed to happen, especially if it's his son's life on the line

[Lady Topspin]

It's not a discontinuity.  Mance Rayder is a man of emotions.  He follows his feelings instead of rules.  His mind and his motivations can change based on how he feels.  He's a sneaky crook.  So we don't really know for sure what his plans are.  He's not into obedience.  That much we know.  Qorin even said so in Clash of Kings.  He loves his freedom more than anything.  The man is an oath-breaker and the worst traitor to the watch until Jon betrayed the order.  Mance deserved to die for his crimes.  And Jon should have never sent the him to get his sister.  A lord commander should never attack the warden of the north like that.  No man of the watch should even think of putting a raiding party of wildlings to attack people on their side of the wall.  Mance is not purely evil.  He was a ranger, and by Qorin's accounts, good at it.  He owes Jon.  Jon is his commanding officer.  Jon ordered him to get his sister.  Mance had no choice but to obey.  He is on this side of the wall after all.  Jon can send him to the fires at any time. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

3 hours ago, Mithras said:

He would not be intimidated by death, which leaves the survival of his son as his only motivation. But how can he trust Mel with his son’s life?

Maybe it's Jon he trusts with his son's life. Mance and Mel have been interacting and she wants Jon's trust. Burning a baby will not accomplish that. 

[The Sleeper]

In Storm he was a warlord of a vast horde with noone to stop him in sight and capable of negotiating from a position of strenght. In Dance he was a prisoner and basically Stannis' trophy, his son a hostage and his people had scattered facing starvation. He lost and he adapted. This does not make him either a kneeler or a coward. It's not like he can be of use to anyone if he's dead. On top of that his attitude isn't noticeably different and he obviously still has his own agenda. This does not establish discontinuity.

You make some interesting parallels with Arya's arc in Braavos but prior to that your proposed alternative is not that different from what actually transpired and parts of it need explanation. For instance, Mance wouldn't be of any particular use in Deepwood Motte and a raid at the Dreadfort (with Asha's longships?!) makes little sense.

[Mithras]

On 12/30/2020 at 4:55 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Maybe it's Jon he trusts with his son's life. Mance and Mel have been interacting and she wants Jon's trust. Burning a baby will not accomplish that. 

But Jon does not have the power to protect them. They are not his prisoners. That much is made clear when Jon took a big risk by sending Val beyond the Wall. Jon was absolutely certain that this might have cost his head if Stannis returned before Val. Jon can't do anything if Stannis and Mel decide to burn Mance's son. That is the reason why he made the baby switch in the first place and sent him away with Aemon because he knew that he could not protect them if things went ugly.

On 12/30/2020 at 5:01 PM, The Sleeper said:

In Storm he was a warlord of a vast horde with noone to stop him in sight and capable of negotiating from a position of strenght. In Dance he was a prisoner and basically Stannis' trophy, his son a hostage and his people had scattered facing starvation. He lost and he adapted. This does not make him either a kneeler or a coward. It's not like he can be of use to anyone if he's dead. On top of that his attitude isn't noticeably different and he obviously still has his own agenda. This does not establish discontinuity.

You make some interesting parallels with Arya's arc in Braavos but prior to that your proposed alternative is not that different from what actually transpired and parts of it need explanation. For instance, Mance wouldn't be of any particular use in Deepwood Motte and a raid at the Dreadfort (with Asha's longships?!) makes little sense.

If Mance was thoroughly defeated and broken as you said, there would not be any need for glamor. He would kneel to Stannis as himself and become his lieutenant. Also it is not obvious that he has his own agenda. What makes you say that? And if it is so obvious, what is his agenda now?

In fact, Mance seems to have given up his previous agenda which drove him for many years prior. He worked very hard to secure a place for his people in the south but currently, majority of his people are suffering beyond the Wall. The ones who made it are only marginally better. They were humiliated in the process; they face food shortage and their security is not guaranteed.

Under these circumstances, Mance basically sacrificed his quest and then his life to kidnap fArya from Winterfell. No doubt he took pleasure from LARPing the legend of Bael the Bard to a certain degree. But there is almost zero chance of him making it out alive from Winterfell.

Stannis was considering to use the wildling fighters in his van until Jon persuaded him otherwise. No doubt he saw some use in them. And for the mission of abducting the Stark girl from a castle, he could not have found someone better than Mance. Stannis thoroughly questioned Mance in AsoS and no doubt he learned about his infiltration to Winterfell when Robert came. As for Asha and the longships: they were only meant for diversion to lure the Bolton forces out by raiding all over the Bolton lands while Mance did his thing; and for transportation.

[The Sleeper]

17 hours ago, Mithras said:

If Mance was thoroughly defeated and broken as you said, there would not be any need for glamor. He would kneel to Stannis as himself and become his lieutenant. Also it is not obvious that he has his own agenda. What makes you say that? And if it is so obvious, what is his agenda now?

In fact, Mance seems to have given up his previous agenda which drove him for many years prior. He worked very hard to secure a place for his people in the south but currently, majority of his people are suffering beyond the Wall. The ones who made it are only marginally better. They were humiliated in the process; they face food shortage and their security is not guaranteed.

Under these circumstances, Mance basically sacrificed his quest and then his life to kidnap fArya from Winterfell. No doubt he took pleasure from LARPing the legend of Bael the Bard to a certain degree. But there is almost zero chance of him making it out alive from Winterfell.

Stannis was considering to use the wildling fighters in his van until Jon persuaded him otherwise. No doubt he saw some use in them. And for the mission of abducting the Stark girl from a castle, he could not have found someone better than Mance. Stannis thoroughly questioned Mance in AsoS and no doubt he learned about his infiltration to Winterfell when Robert came. As for Asha and the longships: they were only meant for diversion to lure the Bolton forces out by raiding all over the Bolton lands while Mance did his thing; and for transportation.

Him being defeated is indisputable. I never said he was broken. And the glamor had more to do with Stannis' reputation than Mance. Besides it's not like he had much of a choice in any of this. As for having his own agenda, Mance pretty much comments on having plans with Melisandre. Moreover, noboody sent him to Winterfell. Mel send him to secure the girl in her visions which was last seen around Long Lake, well to the north of Winterfell. Wher Mance went of his own accord after mentioning he had a ploy he would like to try.

You are claiming that Dance Mance is different than Storm Mance on account of going along with the charade due to the  abandoned time skip and then propose as an alternative him doing the same things more or less. Whatever your case is you are not making it.

And BTW the Bolton's are landlocked.

[dbergkvist]

In ASoS we learn that he was present when Robert was at Winterfell, and used his bag of silver to hire the assassin, in order to cause conflict between the different houses south of the Wall. And in ADwD he sent the pink letter to cause Jon to abandon the Night's Watch, which caused him to be assassinated, again causing conflict between the different factions south of the wall. He seems quite consistent to me.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

On 12/30/2020 at 1:25 AM, Mithras said:

Our false king has a prickly manner,” Melisandre told Jon Snow, “but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life.

This is a fantastic quote. I have a silly idea I call.....                                                       “The Prickly Pickle”

I may post but I’m sure someone else has. If not please anyone else but me. Because, I mean, just look how I title it.

Jon thinks of Stanis as prickly through out a lot of chapters. So if Melisandre knows this she could be saying something a bit different on the sly.

...but there is a little more of a prick who’s open to the mind and royal?