Covid-19 #22: What Were You Doing This Time Last Year?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@Heartofice - most people I see around Atlanta ARE wearing surgical masks. It’s easy, they are disposable. 

Doctors wear N95 masks to operate. 

Oh yeah? Well bank robbers wear masks too!!!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

All joking aside, I'm curious about something I've heard mentioned more and more. A lot of people are saying we should prioritize getting the first shot to as many people as possible, and we'll hopefully deal with the second shot a few weeks later. But what if we can't do that? How effective is just getting the first shot, and what happens if people can't get the second one do to supply concerns?

[Derfel Cadarn]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

All joking aside, I'm curious about something I've heard mentioned more and more. A lot of people are saying we should prioritize getting the first shot to as many people as possible, and we'll hopefully deal with the second shot a few weeks later. But what if we can't do that? How effective is just getting the first shot, and what happens if people can't get the second one do to supply concerns?

People are less protected, and at some point, the effectiveness wears off and the sort-of protected population becomes much less so. All the while, the virus is spreading and potentially mutating into a strain that even a full dose no longer protects against.

I think. 

[Clueless Northman]

Pfizer has repeatedly stated it was a risky bet because they can't promise how long a first dose would actually protect you. They only know it works for 3-4 weeks but didn't widely test for longer than that. As far as I'm concerned, it's another dumb idea from (like "Masks don't work, let the pros use them and go without them" or "We'll deal with how to vaccinate people once the vaccines are there, no need to plan ahead") politicians gambling with our lives, that are freaking out because they've totally lost control of the situation and should actually resign and let competent people handle the mess they've left us.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

That’s kind of what I expected, which is why I’m surprised people are saying we should get as many people as possible the first shot without a real plan afterwards.

Also, competent people is relative. Just keeping this to a U.S. perspective, most of the top politicians are Ivy League educated. You would think that would suggest they are competent. The truth is most people can be competent in a few areas and inept in many others. I always use Dr. Ben Carson as an example. He is one of the most brilliant brain surgeons to have ever lived, and if you Google him giving a lecture, it’s incredible how smart he is. OTOH, if you listen to him talk about literally anything else, he sounds like he dropped out of HS and is a night janitor.

[kairparavel]

There's some real concerns in prioritizing first instead of full doses. This article outlines other vaccinations with multi-doses.

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/22163315/covid-19-vaccines-doses-pfizer-moderna

Along with people just not bothering, the potential side effects are a real barrier to getting the second shot. This article points out the three dose Hep B vaccine and how it doesn't have side effects. I guess I'm an exception because the first dose was awful for me and I almost vomited in my car on the drive home, feverish with headaches. It was an awful 12-24 hours. But I couldn't do my clinical rotation and therefore graduate without taking the full thing. Unless employment or something as compelling is in the mix I fear many people will forgo more of something that makes them feel unwell. And we'll be worse off. 

And that's not even counting the people who think the first shot of vaccine will save them from wearing masks and physical distancing.

[ljkeane]

I doubt supply issues is really a big concern in terms of people getting their second vaccine dose. All the companies are ramping up their production at the moment so barring some unforeseen major issue, which would be a problem anyway, it's pretty unlikely that there's going to be less vaccine available however long down the line we're talking about than there is now.

Whether people won't actually bother getting their second dose or not, who knows?

[Fragile Bird]

I think all the people who are anxious to get a vaccine will be damn sure to get their second dose. Again this morning they showed scenes of a 1,000 people lined up in their cars in a parking lot to get a vaccine. Those people are going to go back for their second shot. And if the faster-spreading variant gets a hold in communities, I suspect the anxiety levels will ratchet up compliance.

[Zorral]

So overwhelmed by covid-19 cases -- which is what happens when there has been no concerted plan and direction for containment, and everyone decides for themselves, thinking this only applies to old people and poor people and others who aren't really people at all.  So very 18th century!

"L.A. County first responders told not to bring patients to hospital if survival chances are low"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/05/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

 

[Fury Resurrected]

I am now 19 hours out from dose 2 with zero side effects this time other than a little injection site ache

As to @Clueless Northman’s concerns, at least the trial I am involved with (though it is my understanding Pfizer has a similar trial going on which is not the same one that got their emergency approval) goes for two years to check ongoing immunity levels.

[The Monkey]

Thanks all for sharing your experiences regarding the risk of mask wearing leading to less social distances

21 hours ago, Mudguard said:

The claim that masks don't work is garbage.  There are dozens and dozens of papers now that provide evidence that masks work, not that anything beyond common sense was required to understand that masks work.  People trying to reconcile the recommendation for health care workers to wear masks, because masks work, with the recommendation for the general population not to wear masks, because mask don't work, have been tying themselves in knots trying to reconcile the two contradictory claims.  Lot's of dubious arguments were made.

Mask wearing has been required in stores here for a while now, and while maintaining a 6 feet distance is not always possible in a crowded environment, it's definitely better than before, particularly in the checkout line where most people observe the recommended 6 feet spacing.  For me and I believe for many others, the mask is a tangible reminder to observe all the other rules, like the proper spacing and to wash hands.  So no, strangers do not spontaneously start hugging each other after they don masks.  At least not at the supermarket.

Don't you find it strange that the Swedish PHA ignores the mountain of evidence that supports mask usage while alleging, without evidence that I'm aware of, that mask usage will lead reduced social distancing?  Presumably the Swedish PHA has always recommended that health care workers wear masks, at least when treating COVID-19 patients, because they know mask usage works.  If the default is that masks work, shouldn't strong evidence be required before recommending that the public doesn't need to wear masks?  The contradictory positions just don't make any sense.

I agree with you; I'm highly critical of my government and its agencies handling of the pandemic. It seems like most people in Sweden have lost faith in them once we got so fucked in the second wave along with the rest of Europe. It seems insane that our agency's experts are the only ones who are right, and virtually every other county's experts are wrong. You have great point regarding them saying there is weak evidence for the effectiveness mark wearing, but cannot themselves back up their claim that it might lead to a false sense of security. It should be said though that the Swedish constitution prevents them from imposing a "hard" lockdown, however much they might have wanted it. (As in making it illegal to invite people to your own home or imposing curfews.) That being said, there is so many other things that could have (and should have) done that wouldn't have been unconstitutional. 

However, I'm not quite with you regarding your point on mask wearing for health workers. They use high-grade filter masks that protects the wearer, whereas the public in most counties wear surgical masks whose purpose is to limit the spread of droplets from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, thus reducing the risk that they unknowingly infect others. So it's two different purposes of mask use, as I understand it.

[Zorral]

At least in the UK there are those who understand that lock down will be the condition for a long time. 

"BBC to expand educational shows in response to UK Covid lockdown
CBBC broadcasts aim to ensure all children can access curriculum-based learning without the internet "

They, at the BBC, at least have a lot of experience doing this.  Doing a far better job, probably, than those who are supposedly responsible for the organization of vaccination and distribution.

Quote

 

Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, said in a statement released by the broadcaster that the new programming would be “a lifeline to parents”.

He said: “The BBC has helped the nation through some of the toughest moments of the last century, and for the next few weeks it will help our children learn whilst we stay home, protect the NHS and save lives.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jan/05/bbc-educational-cbbc-uk-covid-lockdown-curriculum

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The last 2 days? The last data point I see for daily cases is 29 Dec, and the last data point on daily deaths is 30 Dec. Worldometers hasn't shown any Sweden daily numbers on the main country table for months now, it's only in the Sweden country page.

I only did a cursory glance. 

This is disturbing.

[The Anti-Targ]

Da fuq is wrong with people?

Quote

A source has told the Herald that a woman who works at a Hamilton (New Zealand) managed isolation facility had recently had a Covid-19 test because she displayed symptoms. She was still awaiting her test results but turned up at court today anyway.

No indication in the article why the woman went to court only that she was going to the registrar's court, so that could be for any number of reasons. I would like to know if she called ahead to the court and was told to come in anyway, or if she didn't call ahead to find out if it was OK to go into court. But I doubt we will get much follow-up info, unless someone does end up testing positive as a result of the contact. On the face of it, it seems like there would have been strict instructions for her to isolate at home until the test result is reported.

[The Anti-Targ]

6 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I only did a cursory glance. 

This is disturbing.

Data dump of Sweden data today to bring daily case and death numbers up to date. It's plausible for the main table not to show daily numbers if Sweden is taking a day or two to report correct results. Not having data for several days was a bit of a worry, but it's all caught up now. Daily numbers seem to be dropping now, hopefully not an artefact of the holiday period.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

35 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

...hopefully not an artefact of the holiday period.

Unfortunately, that's probably exactly what that is. The next week will tell.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Little more detail about the person who destroyed the vaccines in Wisconsin: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/wisconsin-pharmacist-covid-19-vaccine-doses-steven-brandenburg

Quote

A Wisconsin pharmacist convinced the world was “crashing down” told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine, because he believed the shots would mutate people’s DNA, according to court documents released on Monday.

“He’d formed this belief they were unsafe,” Ozaukee county district attorney Adam Gerol said in a virtual hearing. He added that Brandenburg was upset because he and his wife are divorcing. An Aurora employee said Brandenburg had taken a gun to work twice. Charges are pending.

An unfortunate case, but I wouldnt take it to mean anything more for vaccine dissemination in the US. Gotta chalk it down to external circumstances.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Little more detail about the person who destroyed the vaccines in Wisconsin: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/wisconsin-pharmacist-covid-19-vaccine-doses-steven-brandenburg

An unfortunate case, but I wouldnt take it to mean anything more for vaccine dissemination in the US. Gotta chalk it down to external circumstances.

Depends how widespread beliefs are among people with access to stock of vaccine are re tings like mutating DNA, and Bill gates microchips. If an actual pharmacist can form these beliefs then pharmacy staff can too.

Good news on the lady who went to court front, her test result came back negative.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

4 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Little more detail about the person who destroyed the vaccines in Wisconsin: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/wisconsin-pharmacist-covid-19-vaccine-doses-steven-brandenburg

An unfortunate case, but I wouldnt take it to mean anything more for vaccine dissemination in the US. Gotta chalk it down to external circumstances.

'Sounds like someone who's under a lot of stress.  Still, it would be nice to know where he got that, "shots would mutate people's DNA" hooha.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Holy shit, Trump wants to fly to Scotland to play golf during the inauguration.