Covid-19 #22: What Were You Doing This Time Last Year?

[Galactus]

4 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Aaaah. I now get it. You are mentioning things we could’ve done if the Spanish Flu arrived today. I was talking about if Covid-19 had shown up 100 years ago. 
 

Edit: The virus is a killer. Just because medicine has advanced enough to lessen the immediate death toll, does not mean we should be complacent.

Over one in every 1,000 Americans have been killed by it. With the death rate still rising. But because all too many Americans don’t see the bodies themselves, they are able to just shrug it off as “the flu”. 

IIRC they end up at roughly the same. Though it should be noted that the spanish flu struck a society that was already pretty strained due to wartime rationing and such. They had fairly different patterns of pathology though, and because the 1918 flu killed more young people it likely had a bigger impact demographically. 

[Clueless Northman]

5 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I wonder how Covid-19 compares to what is commonly known as the Spanish Flu. 
 

I tend to think it is at least as deadly, if not more deadly. With the only difference being 100 years of scientific progress keeping more people alive than what would’ve happened if Covid-19 had arrived a century ago. 

Spanis Flu death rate in the US was more or less at 2.5%, it seems. Which means it was actually quite lower than the global death rate, which seems to have been closer to 10%. Covid right now has a higher death rate in the West, due to the sizable elder population, which wasn't the case with the Spanis Flu, and would not be the case, with covid happening in 1910s/20s. But since covid also seems to be more contagious, with higher reproduction rate, and people hadn't any effective drug to use back then - even less than we have now - with a quite basic healthcare level, tech-wise, there's no doubt there would have been way more deaths than in 2020. At least in the US, and possibly in many Western countries, the death rate and total casualties would have been at least as high as with the Influenza, imho.

[Galactus]

7 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Spanis Flu death rate in the US was more or less at 2.5%, it seems. Which means it was actually quite lower than the global death rate, which seems to have been closer to 10%. Covid right now has a higher death rate in the West, due to the sizable elder population, which wasn't the case with the Spanis Flu, and would not be the case, with covid happening in 1910s/20s. But since covid also seems to be more contagious, with higher reproduction rate, and people hadn't any effective drug to use back then - even less than we have now - with a quite basic healthcare level, tech-wise, there's no doubt there would have been way more deaths than in 2020. At least in the US, and possibly in many Western countries, the death rate and total casualties would have been at least as high as with the Influenza, imho.

Though I do note that the world was larger in 1918. No real air travel, and most people still moved a the speed of horse (or maybe railroad) It was a very different landscape. 

[Clueless Northman]

Definitely. Then, were it not for that little skirmish called WW I, the pandemic would've spread more slowly. I'm not sure it could've been effectively quarantined in some countries, but it might well have lasted longer until it crossed the world. Or with luck it could've been stopped at some point during Summer season without going as far as it went. Whatever, without the war restrictions and the global weakening of populations, odds are that the casualties wouldn't have been as horrendous.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Definitely. Then, were it not for that little skirmish called WW I, the pandemic would've spread more slowly. I'm not sure it could've been effectively quarantined in some countries, but it might well have lasted longer until it crossed the world. Or with luck it could've been stopped at some point during Summer season without going as far as it went. Whatever, without the war restrictions and the global weakening of populations, odds are that the casualties wouldn't have been as horrendous.

The history, The Great Influenza, makes clear it probably emerged first here in the US (definitely not in Spain), in the midwest (Kansas) and was spread far and wide thanks to the instituted massive draft and mobilization of troops to train and go overseas.  They took it with them to Europe. John M. Barry carefully follows all the twists and turns and every aspect of the Great Influenza.  It answers every question you may have about it, including whether or not if it happened now we would have dealt with it better.  The massive difference is, that we hadn't yet hit on viruses in medical research -- but the research done then, truly great and innovative work, by the end resulted in the revelation of  whole new micro universe.  Because of their work, vaccines for covid-19 could be developed with such astonishing rapidity, as the work has continued to unravel viruses, particularly of the SARS varieties has been going on for years now, particularly since the researchers are able to perform genomic investigation into the varieties of viruses

 

 

[Zorral]

Vaccinations are ramping up here in NYC.  Vaccination hubs are established in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, but for some reason not in Manhattan.  The qualified to get appointments have been expanded too. They started taking appointments late last night, early this morning, and are up and running now, I believe.

 

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Vaccinations are ramping up here in NYC.  Vaccination hubs are established in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, but for some reason not in Manhattan.  The qualified to get appointments have been expanded too. They started taking appointments late last night, early this morning, and are up and running now, I believe.

 

 

 

I am seeing so many posts I forget who posted what, or if in fact this might be from a tweet I read as I was scrolling down twitter feeds posted in the US Politics thread. Someone said you sign up on line, but there are 51 questions you have to answer and stuff you have to scan and download to the questionaire.

I have no idea if that's true or if it's an exaggeration.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

31 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Vaccinations are ramping up here in NYC.  Vaccination hubs are established in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, but for some reason not in Manhattan.  The qualified to get appointments have been expanded too. They started taking appointments late last night, early this morning, and are up and running now, I believe.

 

 

 

“For some reason”.  Oh DeBlasio....

I would like to note, though it isn’t being as well publicized that grocery workers are eligible right now.  Also those relying on Homeless shelters.

There is a form.  It is online.  It didn’t look too hard, but I do admit that for some of the groups it might be hard to fill out.

[Zorral]

There will be vaccination centers later -- this week? -- opening in Manhattan, I just heard on the public radio station.

If people are considered essential workers, such as all the people in the food industries, from bodegas to supermarkets, restaurants -- they should be among the numero uno to be vaccinated.  And teachers too.  Not to mention caretakers of the elderly, including our dear friends who rescued Mother / MIL from an assisted living complex in Birmingham and brought her home to Harlem.  She's in her 90's and starting down the alzheimer's slope.  They need that vaccination.  Or at least one of them should be vaccinated because in living conditions if even one of the people is safely vaccinated -- it will make a huge difference for the better in their lives, starting with losing the terror of having take the laundry to the laundromat and going to the supermarket.

Still wearing masks, etc., of course!

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

44 minutes ago, Zorral said:

There will be vaccination centers later -- this week? -- opening in Manhattan, I just heard on the public radio station.

If people are considered essential workers, such as all the people in the food industries, from bodegas to supermarkets, restaurants -- they should be among the numero uno to be vaccinated.  And teachers too.  Not to mention caretakers of the elderly, including our dear friends who rescued Mother / MIL from an assisted living complex in Birmingham and brought her home to Harlem.  She's in her 90's and starting down the alzheimer's slope.  They need that vaccination.  Or at least one of them should be vaccinated because in living conditions if even one of the people is safely vaccinated -- it will make a huge difference for the better in their lives, starting with losing the terror of having take the laundry to the laundromat and going to the supermarket.

Still wearing masks, etc., of course!

 

Great to hear! Whether caretakers of elderly who are not licensed professionals are eligible wasn’t 100% clear to me.  I was looking to see if our babysitter was eligible (I don’t think so, and btw this is probably just and proper) or her husband (I think he is - he’s in the DOT security team, but he’s going to look into it further).  I hope your MIL and her caretakers get vaccinated ASAP.  

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 I hope your MIL and her caretakers get vaccinated ASAP.  

She's not my MIL -- she's my friend's mother and her husband's MIL.  But it takes both of them, all day, every day, to caretake her.  She's so lucky to have such a loving daughter and wonderful SIL.

When my friend flew down to 'Bama to get her, other residents said to her in wonder, "Nobody ever gets rescued from this place.  Once you're in, you're in."  This place, btw, is top of the line, very expensive and luxurious -- until the new directors wanted mother's apartment because by now they could sell it to someone new for twice what she had paid and the monthly service and upkeep she was paying -- having invested some money in it with t original developers -- who then shortly before pandemic had sold it on. New management was gaslighting, frightening etc. in attempts to get her out.  They wanted to put her in a tiny cell in another par of the complex and charge the same amount that she'd been paying for this lovely apartment with a lovely view.

Also their son, on the spectrum, teaches f2f music to special needs children.  More than one person he and his fiancee have dealt with at work have gotten sick and / or tested positive.  They have quarantined and been tested twice.

So if they and their son and his fiancee and mom/grandmom/mil all got vaccinated, imagine how much improved their lives would be!  Ya -- I'm dreaming dreams on their behalf!

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

She's not my MIL -- she's my friend's mother and her husband's MIL.  But it takes both of them, all day, every day, to caretake her.  She's so lucky to have such a loving daughter and wonderful SIL.

When my friend flew down to 'Bama to get her, other residents said to her in wonder, "Nobody ever gets rescued from this place.  Once you're in, you're in."  This place, btw, is top of the line, very expensive and luxurious -- until the new directors wanted mother's apartment because by now they could sell it to someone new for twice what she had paid and the monthly service and upkeep she was paying -- having invested some money in it with t original developers -- who then shortly before pandemic had sold it on. New management was gaslighting, frightening etc. in attempts to get her out.  They wanted to put her in a tiny cell in another par of the complex and charge the same amount that she'd been paying for this lovely apartment with a lovely view.

Also their son, on the spectrum, teaches f2f music to special needs children.  More than one person he and his fiancee have dealt with at work have gotten sick and / or tested positive.  They have quarantined and been tested twice.

So if they and their son and his fiancee and mom/grandmom/mil all got vaccinated, imagine how much improved their lives would be!  Ya -- I'm dreaming dreams on their behalf!

 

OH, misunderstood, but dreaming dreams for them too!  Fingers crossed!

[Heartofice]

On why the EU has been so slow to vaccinate

[Iskaral Pust]

Today was our son’s first day of in-person school attendance since March.  He really enjoyed it but my wife is having a full-blown anxiety attack.  She has always been over-anxious about germs, but I don’t want that anxiety to mean our son has to stay locked at home if his school has proven for months now that they’ve avoided any transmission within the school.

(I know I’m tempting fate to type that)

[Mlle. Zabzie]

12 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Today was our son’s first day of in-person school attendance since March.  He really enjoyed it but my wife is having a full-blown anxiety attack.  She has always been over-anxious about germs, but I don’t want that anxiety to mean our son has to stay locked at home if his school has proven for months now that they’ve avoided any transmission within the school.

(I know I’m tempting fate to type that)

If anecdotes make her feel better, my kids have been in-person 5 days a week since August.  There has been no transmission in the schools and very few cases.  As best we can tell both schools are doing a great job with distancing protocols and they also have testing protocols (testing everyone on the way in and then random thereafter - would be better if it was 2x per week, but there’s a budgetary limit and so far it has worked).  From talking to folks, my understanding is that it works best if there is community buy-in to all of the guidelines and restrictions.  That is, you are trusting the other people in the school community not to be a dumba$$.  Both schools have strong communities.....

[Mlle. Zabzie]

So rumors are that Broadway is planning to be back fall 2021.  This actually sort of scans with my expectations.  I think it will probably start out distanced, but I think before that won’t give shows enough time to finance, do advance, etc. etc. etc.  If I had to guess “fall” means more like for the holiday season, with distanced previews beforehand.  Thoughts?

[Mudguard]

4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

So rumors are that Broadway is planning to be back fall 2021.  This actually sort of scans with my expectations.  I think it will probably start out distanced, but I think before that won’t give shows enough time to finance, do advance, etc. etc. etc.  If I had to guess “fall” means more like for the holiday season, with distanced previews beforehand.  Thoughts?

I think that's possible if everyone gets vaccinated.  I wonder if some businesses will require proof of vaccination. 

[Fury Resurrected]

I just got the antibody test to see if I have them after both rounds of vaccination. I am pleased to say I do and can return to the gym!

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I just got the antibody test to see if I have them after both rounds of vaccination. I am pleased to say I do and can return to the gym!

I am SO EXCITED for you (and also a little jealous).

[Mlle. Zabzie]

15 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I think that's possible if everyone gets vaccinated.  I wonder if some businesses will require proof of vaccination. 

Also, and this is pure anecdote, but the wheels are spinning at my firm planning in-person events for October/November.  Also seems possible....  One of my colleagues thinks it is nuts and we shouldn’t even consider until summer of 2022.  A different one thinks we will have our annual partner meeting in-person and in May.  I think they are both wrong but who the heck knows.