The vagaries of time travel or why Mel can't catch a break

[Julia H.]

8 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

One would need to qualify the difference between warnings and prophecy. For instance Thoros foresaw the siege of Riverrun and as the result the BwB chose not to go there. It is the case that whatever scrying Mel does, does not confine itself to depiction of events past, present or future. An example from Jojen would be the chained winged wolf which could be described as a situation. However, both Mel and Jojen (Bran, the Undying, Thoros, the Ghost of Hight Heart, Maggy the Frog, etc) have had visions of future events that came to pass. After all Mel did see Stannis' defeat at King's Landing.

Jojen in particular is batting a thousand, seeing specifics of people who would come to die. The flaying of the faces is the detail clinches it in that particular vision, as Ramsay actually flayed the faces of the Miller Boys in order to pass them as Bran and Rickon, which the dream can also be said to depict.

I am not saying that telling the difference is easy, but perhaps (just perhaps) a prophecy is something that will happen anyway. It may be argued that the fact that someone hears the prophecy and then tries to either promote it or prevent it may be a necessary factor in the chain of events that lead to the fulfilment of the prophecy. Or we may suppose that a prophecy will come true regardless of what else happens and the telling of the prophecy is not necessary for the realization of the event in question. For example, the Targeryens learned about the Doom of Valyria from a prophetic dream. There was nothing for them to do about the foretold event itself, but they removed themselves from the path of danger. In this sense, the prophetic dream served as a warning for them.

In the case of Mel's vision foretelling the assassination attempt against her, it is a question what exactly she saw - someone plotting against her or someone poisoning her? Or did she see herself protecting herself against murder? In other words, did she prevent what she had seen or did she make it happen? In any case, seeing the vision was apparently instrumental in her survival, i.e. the vision was a significant factor in the chain of events that actually occurred. 

Maggy's prophecy is again interesting - was it preventable what she told Cersei? Or did she tell it in such a way that Cersei's actions in response (given the person she was at the time) were bound to start a chain of events that made the realization of the foretold events more likely? Or was it to happen anyway? In this case, where was Cersei's free will in the shaping of her future? It seems that Maggy told Cersei the prophecy out of spite - did Maggy intentionally start a chain of events that would inevitably determine Cersei's future simply by telling her the prophecy?

Seeing a vision of a past event may simply help you understand the present better. Getting involved in the past though... that's a completely different story. But I wouldn't call either of these examples of magic a prophecy. 

I think @hiemal's categorisation above makes a lot of sense. Whatever we call these visions, dreams or spoken words, there seem to be different degrees of agency that they give to the people who get the information they convey.

 

 

[hiemal]

42 minutes ago, Julia H. said:

 

In the case of Mel's vision foretelling the assassination attempt against her, it is a question what exactly she saw - someone plotting against her or someone poisoning her? Or did she see herself protecting herself against murder? In other words, did she prevent what she had seen or did she make it happen? In any case, seeing the vision was apparently instrumental in her survival, i.e. the vision was a significant factor in the chain of events that actually occurred.

Exactly. She says that threats to her person were the fist thing she learned to see but she also says that her visions require interpretation. She is pretty bad at this overall and seems to act often in a way that brings about her visions even as she seeks to avoid them- for example when she advises Stannis to kill Renly because of her vision of Garlen Tyrell in Renly's armor at the Battle of Blackwater.

Whether or not history can actually be altered or only seems to be shifted in course because of limited perspective is probably beyond the scope of the series but the "presentation" is important- as well as who is sending or facilitating them and why.

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Maggy's prophecy is again interesting - was it preventable what she told Cersei? Or did she tell it in such a way that Cersei's actions in response (given the person she was at the time) were bound to start a chain of events that made the realization of the foretold events more likely? Or was it to happen anyway? In this case, where was Cersei's free will in the shaping of her future? It seems that Maggy told Cersei the prophecy out of spite - did Maggy intentionally start a chain of events that would inevitably determine Cersei's future simply by telling her the prophecy?

Maggy's prophecy seems to be just that, it is reported in a way that is impossible to misinterpret or to escape. The only ambiguity is the identity of the "little brother" and that could just be spite.

Or Maggy could just really good at interpreting visions and I'm barking up the wrong tree entirely.

[CamiloRP]

On 1/8/2021 at 2:36 PM, Julia H. said:

I guess the author's intention may well have been to establish Jojen's credibility as a greenseer with the reader. If there was an in-world sender of the dream, that person may have had the same purpose - to show Bran how valuable Jojen was. But it is also possible that seeing green dreams is just an ability, and the dreams come randomly, maybe somewhat depending on what the dreamer's mind is occupied with when awake. Magical abilities are limited. 

It's a possibility, but given how George writes about prophecy in other stories and the fact that we know people able to send visions and dreams, i think it's a far less likely possibility.

Was Aeron's dream in  the forsaken a mere vision? No, Euron clearly sent it. Who sent the dreams to Jaime? Maybe Jojen and Bran are jus better at receiving the dreams. After all, Aeron needed Shade-Of-The-Evening and Jaime a weirwood stump/the moon. Mel needs a fire. While Bran and Jojen need nothing.

 

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That's totally possible and would be in character with Mel. The question is how far ahead she can see in the future - can she see possible events no one is even planning yet? Another possibility is that she was planning herself to arrange several assassinations, not only Renly's, and in this case, too, the leeches were only for show. Later, however, she realized that Stannis couldn't give him new shadow babies (which may have been at least partially due to the subconscious guilt Stannis was feeling about Renly), but the killings were done anyway, by others. The trick with the leeches definitely seems suspicious. I doubt Mel can magically start chains of events that eventually lead to the deaths of people far away - though she may be able to inflict "bad luck" on somebody, and when a war is going on, that could easily cost a person their life.   

I'm all but certain that @Frey family reunion is correct. She just caught wind of their deaths and took credit for it in order to convince Stannis/Davos. If she was able to kill people that way she should have killed Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella before Ned was executed. Stannis would be king instantly.

 

17 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Why do you think someone sent it? What would they hope to achieve? It was also Jojen's vision. Lacking context it was first misunderstood. Ironicalle later Maester Lewyn speculated that it does depict Winterfell falling to Theon, but still he wouldn't act without more information, nor was there much to be done at that time. If it could have been prevented by Jojen seeing it wouldn't have happened and therefore coud not have been seen. The qualifying difference is Jojen and Meera's presence in the first place, which facilitated Bran's escape and survival and led him to BR.

The issue of assuming a sender and an agenda ultimately merely transposes the source. We still have valid visions of future events regardless of who originally had them.

Same as I said above, and to the bold bit: the visions being valid means nothing to prove or disprove a sender, or intentions. Take the Maggy The Frog prophecy. I think the YMBQ is Cersei, and that she has fulfilled the vision by trying to avoid it, wouldn't that mean that it wouldn't have come to pass if the prophecy wasn't said. 

And no, prophecy won't come true anyway, we see it doesn't work that way in other GRRM stories, and, to quote Meera:

 "Why would the gods send a warning if we can't heed it and change what's to come?"

Or maybe the vision sender was sneding a vision that would come true in order to win the trust of the one receiving it.

[Lady Dacey]

Time may not be linear. Eshu throws a rock today and kills a bird yesterday. 

[Julia H.]

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

It's a possibility, but given how George writes about prophecy in other stories and the fact that we know people able to send visions and dreams, i think it's a far less likely possibility.

So, who is sending the visions and why?

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

 

I'm all but certain that @Frey family reunion is correct. She just caught wind of their deaths and took credit for it in order to convince Stannis/Davos. If she was able to kill people that way she should have killed Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella before Ned was executed. Stannis would be king instantly.

 

I myself have said that it is totally possible. But I also think that a slightly different scenario is also possible. No proof either way. However, we certainly know that Mel is able to kill people but not on her own. She needs shadow assassins and a way to get close to the target person. Before Ned was executed she may not have been close enough to Stannis yet to create shadow assassins with him, and later she had to see that Stannis wasn't able to help her assassin magic any longer.

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

And no, prophecy won't come true anyway,

If we look at the motif of prophecies in the broader context of mythology / literature, we see that prophecies tend to come true even if someone tries to prevent them and even when they are not heeded by anyone (these stories tend to emphasize the power of fate over humans) - but prophecies are often misunderstood and their true meanings become clear only when they eventually come true. In a novel, they can also serve the plot in various ways. How many definitely failed prophecies do we know of in this world? The Stallion Who Mounts the World may be one - unless there is a twist to its meaning that is not clear yet. Dany's child died, but his death led to the return of dragons, and who knows, maybe his soul / lifeforce / essence is in the dragons now, and in this sense, he has indeed become a very fearsome and powerful "stallion", just not the way everyone thought.

[CamiloRP]

1 hour ago, Julia H. said:

So, who is sending the visions and why?

My guess is many people, Bloodrave, the COTF, Euron, Quaithe, Marwyn, the Undying, Urrathon the Nightwalker, the Three-Eyed-Crow (if he's none of the above) and maybe some character we haven't met yet, or maybe one we've met but don't know can send visions. I know LF and Doran have been proposed by many to be vision senders. Maybe the Others can send visions?

What we need to ask ourselves is who benefits from the results of the visions. And we need to find out what are visions and what aren't. For example, one of Ned's dreams in the black cell resembles a vision Euron send to Aeron (a dead loved one saying mean thinks to the POV until he's revealed to be an enemy wearing the dead love one's face). Is this enough to think of it as more than a regular dream?

 

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If we look at the motif of prophecies in the broader context of mythology / literature, we see that prophecies tend to come true even if someone tries to prevent them and even when they are not heeded by anyone (these stories tend to emphasize the power of fate over humans) - but prophecies are often misunderstood and their true meanings become clear only when they eventually come true. In a novel, they can also serve the plot in various ways. How many definitely failed prophecies do we know of in this world? The Stallion Who Mounts the World may be one - unless there is a twist to its meaning that is not clear yet. Dany's child died, but his death led to the return of dragons, and who knows, maybe his soul / lifeforce / essence is in the dragons now, and in this sense, he has indeed become a very fearsome and powerful "stallion", just not the way everyone thought.

In GRRM's book The Armageddon Rag the protagonist is trying to stop a prophecy, so he's about to shoot someone in the head. He then realices this would fulfill the prophecy, so he does nothing and the day is saved. This prophecy was an end of the world thing, it was the big prophecy in the book, but there were more. I found three distinct types of prophecies in TAR.

The first ones are the ones that were bound to come true. The protagonist gets a vision of an old friend he hasn't seen in a long time looking like a corpse. Of course the protagonist already planned to visit his friend, and when he does, the dude looks like a corpse. Because he already did before the vision was sent.

The second type are the visions that come true because the people receiving them work hard for them to come true. A prophecy says a dude will get his hearth cut out, another says a bar will burn down, the same person believes in this visions, so they go and burn the bar and cut the dude's hearth out. 

The third type is the big prophecy. The save the world thing. This is portrayed as an instruction manual, that is, the visions don't say 'X will happen' but rather, 'if you do Y, Z and W, then X will happen'.

 

Anyhow, with all the talk there is in ASOIAF of prophecy being unreliable and George's other stories regarding prophecy (another example could be "And SevenTimes, Never Kill Men" in which prophecies are sent by humanities enemies in order for humans to kill each other) and the Meera quote I provided earlier, I think we need to think about prophecies, question them, not just accept them.

[Julia H.]

On 1/10/2021 at 2:11 PM, CamiloRP said:

My guess is many people, Bloodrave, the COTF, Euron, Quaithe, Marwyn, the Undying, Urrathon the Nightwalker, the Three-Eyed-Crow (if he's none of the above) and maybe some character we haven't met yet, or maybe one we've met but don't know can send visions. I know LF and Doran have been proposed by many to be vision senders. Maybe the Others can send visions?

What we need to ask ourselves is who benefits from the results of the visions. And we need to find out what are visions and what aren't. For example, one of Ned's dreams in the black cell resembles a vision Euron send to Aeron (a dead loved one saying mean thinks to the POV until he's revealed to be an enemy wearing the dead love one's face). Is this enough to think of it as more than a regular dream?

If a vision is sent by Euron or LF, I don't think it is something that I'd regard as prophecy. If they have access to magic with which they can influence people, they will use it to their own ends, and any vision they send is more likely to be a lie than any actual information regarding the future. Just lies and manipulation disguised as prophetic visions but not actual prophecy. If we are dealing with those, then it's a totally different situation.

On 1/10/2021 at 2:11 PM, CamiloRP said:

In GRRM's book The Armageddon Rag the protagonist is trying to stop a prophecy, so he's about to shoot someone in the head. He then realices this would fulfill the prophecy, so he does nothing and the day is saved. This prophecy was an end of the world thing, it was the big prophecy in the book, but there were more. I found three distinct types of prophecies in TAR.

The first ones are the ones that were bound to come true. The protagonist gets a vision of an old friend he hasn't seen in a long time looking like a corpse. Of course the protagonist already planned to visit his friend, and when he does, the dude looks like a corpse. Because he already did before the vision was sent.

The second type are the visions that come true because the people receiving them work hard for them to come true. A prophecy says a dude will get his hearth cut out, another says a bar will burn down, the same person believes in this visions, so they go and burn the bar and cut the dude's hearth out. 

The third type is the big prophecy. The save the world thing. This is portrayed as an instruction manual, that is, the visions don't say 'X will happen' but rather, 'if you do Y, Z and W, then X will happen'.

 

Unfortunately, I haven't read that book. Based purely on your post, the guy who wants to prevent a prophecy but realizes that the planned action would actually be the fulfilment of the prophecy, so he does not do the action and thus prevents the prophecy from coming true sounds like the deconstruction of the motif where someone fulfils a prophecy by trying to prevent it. It's a nice twist, and it is probably a major event in the plot, but it is also an acknowledgement of the original motif.

The outcomes of the other prophecies, as you describe them, seem to indicate that "normally" prophecies come true.

As you say, there is the type that is bound to come true. In ASOIAF, the Doom of Valyria could be an example of that. The prophecy foretelling this event only prepares people for it, but there is nothing anyone could done either for or against the event itself.  

The second type you mention comes true because people work hard to make it come true - in ASOIAF, Mel thinks she needs to work towards the fulfilment of a prophecy; and so did Rhaegar and others. Unfortunately, Mel has probably misinterpreted some signs, and we don't how much Rhaegar interpreted correctly, eventually. We cannot yet tell what (and if) each of them will, in the end, contribute to the fulfilment of the prophecy (despite their mistakes). And we also have at least one person who is madly trying to prevent a prophecy - Cersei. In any case, I think these prophecies depend on being told to the right person(s) in order to come true. Once they are told, they set a chain of events in motion by prompting people to do something (either to fulfil or - ironically - to prevent the foretold event). In some sense, these prophecies are also "bound to come true" - unless something very special happens, where someone realizes (in time) the true nature of the underlying mechanism of events and is able to stop the process. Is MMD a person like that? Or is she someone who may have stopped a prophecy from coming true in one way but also set it on a different path, which has led to fulfilment in a different way?   

Regarding, the "instruction manual" prophecy, that type seems to be straightforward enough - something will happen only if certain prerequisites happen before. I think these prophecies are also bound to come true, once the prerequisite has taken place. Mel's vision of the danger to her own life may be of this category perhaps (though not necessarily) - "this man will not poison you if you protect yourself". But Mel herself admits that there are prophecies and there are warnings, and that misinterpretations are possible. I guess the prerequisite itself can also be misunderstood; but the prophecy itself does not fail even then, simply the other scenario is realized - where the correct prerequisite does not take place.  

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, Julia H. said:

If a vision is sent by Euron or LF, I don't think it is something that I'd regard as prophecy. If they have access to magic with which they can influence people, they will use it to their own ends, and any vision they send is more likely to be a lie than any actual information regarding the future. Just lies and manipulation disguised as prophetic visions but not actual prophecy. If we are dealing with those, then it's a totally different situation.

Yes, but then there are the other players that could pass it off as a more believable prophecy.

 

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Unfortunately, I haven't read that book.

Oh, you should, I love it.

 

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Based purely on your post, the guy who wants to prevent a prophecy but realizes that the planned action would actually be the fulfilment of the prophecy, so he does not do the action and thus prevents the prophecy from coming true sounds like the deconstruction of the motif where someone fulfils a prophecy by trying to prevent it. It's a nice twist, and it is probably a major event in the plot, but it is also an acknowledgement of the original motif.

Kinda, the reason why I brought it up, is because a person tells him of the prophecy and then leaves him there with the means to stop it. He takes the means and it's about to use them when he realizes that they would cause it. So this could be true of whoever sends the visions to Mel, she tries to prevent them, and ends up causing them, like the sender wants.

 

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The outcomes of the other prophecies, as you describe them, seem to indicate that "normally" prophecies come true.

As you say, there is the type that is bound to come true. In ASOIAF, the Doom of Valyria could be an example of that. The prophecy foretelling this event only prepares people for it, but there is nothing anyone could done either for or against the event itself.  

That may be, but I was aiming more for Bran knowing about Ned's death. It's more similar to what happened in TAR, Ned was already dead, the visions only took the information to Bran.

 

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The second type you mention comes true because people work hard to make it come true - in ASOIAF, Mel thinks she needs to work towards the fulfilment of a prophecy; and so did Rhaegar and others. Unfortunately, Mel has probably misinterpreted some signs, and we don't how much Rhaegar interpreted correctly, eventually. We cannot yet tell what (and if) each of them will, in the end, contribute to the fulfilment of the prophecy (despite their mistakes). And we also have at least one person who is madly trying to prevent a prophecy - Cersei. In any case, I think these prophecies depend on being told to the right person(s) in order to come true. Once they are told, they set a chain of events in motion by prompting people to do something (either to fulfil or - ironically - to prevent the foretold event). In some sense, these prophecies are also "bound to come true" - unless something very special happens, where someone realizes (in time) the true nature of the underlying mechanism of events and is able to stop the process. Is MMD a person like that? Or is she someone who may have stopped a prophecy from coming true in one way but also set it on a different path, which has led to fulfilment in a different way?   

Regarding, the "instruction manual" prophecy, that type seems to be straightforward enough - something will happen only if certain prerequisites happen before. I think these prophecies are also bound to come true, once the prerequisite has taken place. Mel's vision of the danger to her own life may be of this category perhaps (though not necessarily) - "this man will not poison you if you protect yourself". But Mel herself admits that there are prophecies and there are warnings, and that misinterpretations are possible. I guess the prerequisite itself can also be misunderstood; but the prophecy itself does not fail even then, simply the other scenario is realized - where the correct prerequisite does not take place.  

With this, I was thinking more of Azor Ahai, maybe the prophecy is not 'this are the signs of a savior' but rather 'follow this steps and you will make a savior'.

[Ewan McGregor]

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

With this, I was thinking more of Azor Ahai, maybe the prophecy is not 'this are the signs of a savior' but rather 'follow this steps and you will make a savior'.

The Azor Ahai prophecy is right, but Mel keep getting the wrong person.  First it was Stannis.  Now it's going to be Jon, the mummer's dragon.  She will need her 3rd attempt to get the right one, Dany

[Alyn Oakenfist]

54 minutes ago, Ewan McGregor said:

The Azor Ahai prophecy is right, but Mel keep getting the wrong person.  First it was Stannis.  Now it's going to be Jon, the mummer's dragon.  She will need her 3rd attempt to get the right one, Dany

It's the rule of three. Setup, reinforce then punchline. Which is a good parallel seeing as all you say is a joke

[TheLastWolf]

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It's the rule of three. Setup, reinforce then punchline. Which is a good parallel seeing as all you say is a joke

Resist mate 

[CamiloRP]

6 hours ago, Ewan McGregor said:

The Azor Ahai prophecy is right, but Mel keep getting the wrong person.  First it was Stannis.  Now it's going to be Jon, the mummer's dragon.  She will need her 3rd attempt to get the right one, Dany

Never said I wasn't, just that it may not be desirable. Remember, this is a religion of intolerant fanatics that hate everyone who doesn't practice it and burn people alive. A religion in which their savior became one by murdering his wife. GRRM doesn't like zealots, he doesn't like prophets, so I have a hard time thinking the most disgusting of them all are also the ones that are correct.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 minute ago, CamiloRP said:

Remember, this is a religion of intolerant fanatics that hate everyone who doesn't practice it

Must. Resist. Obvious. Joke

1 minute ago, CamiloRP said:

Never said I wasn't, just that it may not be desirable. Remember, this is a religion of intolerant fanatics that hate everyone who doesn't practice it and burn people alive. A religion in which their savior became one by murdering his wife. GRRM doesn't like zealots, he doesn't like prophets, so I have a hard time thinking the most disgusting of them all are also the ones that are correct.

Yeah petty much. In general the Azor Ahai prophecy seems to be a Red Herring with too many people fitting in in some way or another. My guess is that it's less about a hero and more about a number of people that will work together to bring the Dawn (mainly Jon, Dany, Bran and Stannis were I to guess)

[CamiloRP]

7 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Must. Resist. Obvious. Joke

Yeah petty much. In general the Azor Ahai prophecy seems to be a Red Herring with too many people fitting in in some way or another. My guess is that it's less about a hero and more about a number of people that will work together to bring the Dawn (mainly Jon, Dany, Bran and Stannis were I to guess)

Yeah, I think that's a possibility, tho what I obviously favour (at least I think it's obvious given how many times I talked about the Others being dealt with by peace and my constant distrust of prophecy) is that Azor Ahai is a figure created by vision senders (probably COTF) to drive humans and others into war, Azor Ahai will have a flaming sword. If a flaming sword is what saves the day, why would anyone try to talk it out?

[Julia H.]

20 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Oh, you should, I love it.

Thanks, I will check it out.

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That may be, but I was aiming more for Bran knowing about Ned's death. It's more similar to what happened in TAR, Ned was already dead, the visions only took the information to Bran.

Oh, I see, the vision that informs you about something that is already happening / has already happened somewhere far away! This seems to be different from a prototypical prophecy - it does not have to "come true" because it is already true. Would it be a green dream? I'm not sure.

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With this, I was thinking more of Azor Ahai, maybe the prophecy is not 'this are the signs of a savior' but rather 'follow this steps and you will make a savior'.

Yes, Mel seems to be working like that. 

[CamiloRP]

7 hours ago, Julia H. said:

Thanks, I will check it out.

Oh, I see, the vision that informs you about something that is already happening / has already happened somewhere far away! This seems to be different from a prototypical prophecy - it does not have to "come true" because it is already true. Would it be a green dream? I'm not sure.

It doesn't matter if it's a prophecy or not, it's received as one, Bran is convinced about his powers after seeing the death of Ned.

TAR's protagonist is convinced about the visions after he sees his friend looks like he did in the vision.

This visions, I think, have the purpose of convincing the receiver of their veracity, so they can be manipulated by the latter visions.