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US Politics: Georgia on Our Minds


Fragile Bird

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1 minute ago, TrackerNeil said:

Trumpism not just about being loud and bigoted; there's a certain common touch (of assholery) that will likely elude any more polished officeholder.

Yep, his appeal has always been largely based on his "authenticity."  I recall when he first announced in the summer of 2015 I happened to be visiting my extended family in San Diego.  My grandma ended up in the hospital and while we were waiting FNC was on covering all his horseshit (if memory serves it was late June).  Two of my uncles have always been crazy rightwing, and I was talking to one of them like "c'mon, I know he's always pretended to run for attention but this is ridiculous."  He responded, "well what, Hillary is better?  They both lie all the time but at least he's honest about it."  That statement makes no sense on its face, but it's plainly what got him elected, and it's very difficult to replicate. 

Again, the only one I think has any type of shot to pull it off is Hawley.  And yeah that includes Pence.  This is why I think Noem is more dangerous - she's much more natural at this facet, but in a decidedly different manner than Trump, which I think is (unfortunately) a very compelling asset for that electorate.

12 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

There have been plans to break up California for as long as California has existed as a state. It ain’t ever gonna happen.

Yep.  Same goes for Texas btw.

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1 hour ago, GrimTuesday said:

I'm sorry, but you're delusional if you think this is over when Trump leaves. The Republicans (the party, not the voters) were already fucking demons whose entire political philosophy was structured around the interests racists, theocrats, and oligarchs and now we have seen the logical continuation in Trump. Now we're looking down the barrel of Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton and Matt Gaetz all of whom either agree with Trump, or see no problem with going along with him for the sake of their own ambitions and are many times more competent and subtle than Trump.

The mask slipped and they realized they suffered absolutely no consequences, they're not going back to what it was before and their voters will stick with them. We can leave no uncertainty of who these people are.

Hmm you know Prager U released a video were they quite literally argued Lee should keep his statue because he put down a slave rebellion.

 

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28 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This is actually I’d argue a pretty reasonable position. The schism between urban and rural voters has only amplified these years.

It hasn’t received popular support in the Republican Party  in California or NY, but statewide support perhaps may not be needed.

Yeah, this is what I'm really worried about. The cited article tapped into it with talk of urban areas and the way they "tyrannize" rural areas.

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52 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Yeah, I'm not losing sleep over that one but I don't doubt they'll make a mess in trying if they feel they have no other choice.

Wouldn't breaking up California be good for the Dems?  Say it splits 5 ways, even if Republicans get 3 senate seats that would be 7 for the Dems.  

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

This is key. Trying to imitate Trump doesn't appear to work all that well. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Republicans change their primary system after 2016?  So now even Trump would struggle to have won in 2016?  It doesn't rule an equivalent winning it in the future, but it shows how many stars had to align for Trump to even do it.  

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The existing politicians can't do what Trump did because, well, they're politicians and aren't particularly popular. One of the things that appealed about Trump was that he wasn't a politician at all. 

If you're looking for someone to replace Trump look for either current popular conservative figures like Hannity or relatively inexperienced governors who didn't fuck over Trump this election. 

But really, the idea of replacing Trump when he and his family are still around is just silly. Equally silly is that his being more demented or acting confused will somehow matter to his fans. It didn't matter for Reagan, and he didn't have nearly the rabid popularity Trump did with his cult. 

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I kinda got that impression.

which is really worrying, because it helps gives credence that Trump’s whining for the past two months wasn’t done purely to scam his followers.

He actually tried to kill democracy to keep the presidency. 

Of course it wasn't just about the money for him. Its also about staying out of court and/or jail. He needs the Presidency to stay afloat.  But he is no Caesar and the Potomac is no Rubicon...

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Just now, ants said:

Wouldn't breaking up California be good for the Dems?  Say it splits 5 ways, even if Republicans get 3 senate seats that would be 7 for the Dems.  

Depends on how any given state is split. This is how they've done splits with gerrymandering. Ohio's House delegation is 16 Republicans and 4 Democrats but if you look at the state-wide office voting totals, the R/D split is quite close. The cited article talked about specific counties succeeding.

https://slate.com/tag/gerrymander-puzzles

 

But the Republican m.o. is often to just make a mess and work out any advantage out of it that they can, especially if it results in some degree of divide and conquer or just distraction. Dem strength is unity but their cohesion is difficult to maintain. Don't doubt they'll make a real play to split up states as long as we have the EC, but this is more of a concern. I'd feel better if Dems make a hard turn after this election to focus on gaining local and state-wide offices.

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California splitting would be a gain of senators most likely at a cost of some ec votes. Both systems suck, mind you, so I guess its more about whether you think having a slight majority in the Senate but not winning potus is more or less useful. 

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If one's going full-blown, out in the open authoritarian, then the House and Senate don't have to matter past a certain point. You disband them which Trump has already suggested because of made up faulty election or whatever blah blah excuse stuff.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493044-trump-threatens-to-adjourn-both-chambers-of-congress

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28 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

If you're looking for someone to replace Trump look for either current popular conservative figures like Hannity or relatively inexperienced governors who didn't fuck over Trump this election.

Hannity has absolutely zero shot of having that type of "authenticity" appeal.  Carlson, too, isn't much better.  Frankly Hawley and even Cruz are superior in that regard.  I don't know who the non-politician candidate is, but those two ain't gonna get very far at the national level.  Neither, btw, is any of the rest of his family, albeit I could see Ivanka and even Junior at a lower elected office.

46 minutes ago, ants said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Republicans change their primary system after 2016?  So now even Trump would struggle to have won in 2016?  It doesn't rule an equivalent winning it in the future, but it shows how many stars had to align for Trump to even do it.

I'm not aware of any of the winner-take-all states shifting to PR.  Even if all states had PR apportionment in 2016 Trump still would've won.  Maybe it woulda taken a bit longer but that's about it.

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Bernstein refers to the Trump tape as the "Ultimate smoking gun."

Legendary Watergate journalist Carl Bernstein reacts to audio obtained by the Washington Post of President Donald Trump pushing Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "find" votes to overturn the election results in the state.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/01/03/trump-georgia-votes-raffensperger-call-tapes-bernstein-sot-vpx.cnn

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2 hours ago, Teng Ai Hui said:

Someone needs to take a copy of that phone call recording, present it to Texas Lt Gov Dan Patrick, and try to collect that 1 million USD reward for evidence of voter fraud.

He's already been presented with evidence, that Trumpist who cast a vote for Trump under his dead mother's name. He didn't pay out, of course.

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4 hours ago, DMC said:

I could see Ivanka and even Junior at a lower elected office.

I don’t know. Would they really settle for less than following Daddy? 
 

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6 hours ago, DMC said:

Two of my uncles have always been crazy rightwing, and I was talking to one of them like "c'mon, I know he's always pretended to run for attention but this is ridiculous."  He responded, "well what, Hillary is better?  They both lie all the time but at least he's honest about it."  That statement makes no sense on its face, but it's plainly what got him elected, and it's very difficult to replicate. 

It's makes sense if you come from the position that all politicians lie constantly all the time. Even pre Trump I would read the comments on the Blaze and you could see just from those that rightwingers are far more cynical about politicians including their politicians then leftwingers are. If you assume anyone who doesn't think all politicians are liars and crooks is a naive fool, well them calling Trump a liar doesn't carry much weight.

 As for Trump's legacy I think he'll fade remarkabelt fast. Sarah Palin tapped into the same energy and people and once she was out of the spotlight her star waned remarkably quickly. I think Trump will have a similar fate. He'll hang on longer but politics and issues will move on. I'd be surprised if he had much influence after the 2024 election they'll be new issues and campaigns and people will move on. 

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10 hours ago, Myshkin said:

The leaked recording is not playing well on conservative Reddit. Initially there were the predictable excuses of “out of context” and calls for the whole recording to be released. But once the whole recording was released, there was really no way to spin this favorably for Trump. Some are still trying, but most are falling somewhere on the spectrum of terrible misstep-time to move on-yikes this might be criminal.

I listened to a good portion of the tape last night. Apart from the election tampering and treason charges that could arise, I think the biggest problem for Trump supporters is that Trump comes across as a terrible negotiator. The Art of the Deal guy comes across as a whiny, groveling little sniveller try to get candy from a recalcitrant baby. 

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34 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I listened to a good portion of the tape last night. Apart from the election tampering and treason charges that could arise, I think the biggest problem for Trump supporters is that Trump comes across as a terrible negotiator. The Art of the Deal guy comes across as a whiny, groveling little sniveller try to get candy from a recalcitrant baby. 

He begged.  He repeatedly begged.  He was weak.

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