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Mithras

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A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI

“But . . . my lord, you said . . . you said we were sailing home.”

“And there it stands, miserable as it is. My ancestral home. It has no name, I fear. A great lord’s seat ought to have a name, wouldn’t you agree? Winterfell, the Eyrie, Riverrun, those are castles. Lord of Harrenhal now, that has a sweet ring to it, but what was I before? Lord of Sheepshit and Master of the Drearfort? It lacks a certain something.” His grey-green eyes regarded her innocently. “You look distraught. Did you think we were making for Winterfell, sweetling? Winterfell has been taken, burned, and sacked. All those you knew and loved are dead. What northmen who have not fallen to the ironmen are warring amongst themselves. Even the Wall is under attack. Winterfell was the home of your childhood, Sansa, but you are no longer a child. You’re a woman grown, and you need to make your own home.”

...

A Feast for Crows - Alayne II

Her eyes widened. “He is not Lady Waynwood’s heir. He’s Robert’s heir. If Robert were to die . . .”

Petyr arched an eyebrow. “When Robert dies. Our poor brave Sweetrobin is such a sickly boy, it is only a matter of time. When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn’s bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon . . . and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out with your long auburn hair, clad in a maiden’s cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back . . . why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa . . . Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell. That’s worth another kiss now, don’t you think?”

 

In ASoS, LF ruled out Winterfell definitively for Sansa. In AFfC, LF promised to retake Winterfell for Sansa if she played her part. But in AFfC, Winterfell was still a broken ruin with its household gone for good, and the North was still in the middle of a civil war between Boltons, Stannis and the ironmen. In other words, everything he told Sansa in ASoS about why she should forget Winterfell forever was still valid in AFfC.

How did Winterfell become so valuable in LF's eyes from ASoS to AFfC? In fact, one might say that the rosy scenario LF told Sansa about the Vale knights pledging their swords to win her birth right seems straight out of fairy tales, which she thinks she is over with. 

Further clues:

  1. ASoS was written while GRRM still thought to proceed with a 5 year gap.
  2. Harry the Heir did not exist in ASoS. Had GRRM proceeded with the 5 year gap, Sweetrobin would have been 13, around the same age Oberyn fathered Obara and Theon had sex with the miller's wife.
  3. Originally GRRM wanted to have Sansa wed to Joffrey, bear him a son and choose her husband and child over her parents and siblings, a choice she would later bitterly rue.
  4. "Pulling an Elaena Targaryen": passing somebody else's child as that of a dead husband.
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30 minutes ago, Mithras said:

In ASoS, LF ruled out Winterfell definitively for Sansa. In AFfC, LF promised to retake Winterfell for Sansa if she played her part. But in AFfC, Winterfell was still a broken ruin with its household gone for good, and the North was still in the middle of a civil war between Boltons, Stannis and the ironmen. In other words, everything he told Sansa in ASoS about why she should forget Winterfell forever was still valid in AFfC.

How did Winterfell become so valuable in LF's eyes from ASoS to AFfC? In fact, one might say that the rosy scenario LF told Sansa about the Vale knights pledging their swords to win her birth right seems straight out of fairy tales, which she thinks she is over with. 

Or, the even more likely option, LF is full of shit in one or both of those conversations.

I personally don't think he'll attack the North, but rather the Riverlands, probably using a Frey Civil War between each side of the twins, Riverrun and Darry, to exterminate all Freys, get de facto control of the RIverlands to go along with his de jure control and then maybe move on to the North.

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Tyrion dealt with some family issues and Cersei became an amazing ruler really fast. LF gives his in-world explanation on what changed in Alayne II:

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He did not hold her kiss against her. “You would not believe half of what is happening in King’s Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now…it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear.”

Notice that LF almost breaks the fourth wall when he mentions the 4 or 5 quiet years.

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LF never gave a crap about Winterfell. It is his carrot to Sansa to get her to play along with his schemes. He is bribing her with what he thinks she wants, a castle a court and a handsome prince. 

It might also be of use to gain favor in the Vale, a way send some idiots who oppose him away to die and a chip to bargain with other external forces. 

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He's manipulating Sansa emotionally to break her down and make her more dependent and compliant.  He then casts himself as the hero who has the power to give her back what she has lost.  His advice to Ned is that he would be a fool, to trust anything that he said or promised.  Same for Sansa except that Sansa is also a weak point for Littlefinger who vacillates between his feelings for her as a daughter and a lover.

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5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Or, the even more likely option, LF is full of shit in one or both of those conversations.

I personally don't think he'll attack the North, but rather the Riverlands, probably using a Frey Civil War between each side of the twins, Riverrun and Darry, to exterminate all Freys, get de facto control of the RIverlands to go along with his de jure control and then maybe move on to the North.

yep

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34 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

"I'm giving you such amazing gifts that you have to let me kiss you" :ack:

Also did I mention how much you look like your mother, the one who I raped and had her husband exiled to Australia who's death happened as a direct result of my actions, and who's husband's death was even more directly due to me?

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3 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Also did I mention how much you look like your mother, the one who I raped and had her husband exiled to Australia who's death happened as a direct result of my actions, and who's husband's death was even more directly due to me?

and "I framed you for murder so I could have you to myself" 

It's really awful on so many levels. 

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I have questioned his motives because of his problem with consistency.  He falls right along with Illyrio.  The fat man whose plans change with the wind.  LF is the same.  We have to wait until we know their true motives.  Walder changes his mind too but it doesn't look inconsistent because we know his motives changed as he reacts to Robb.

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2 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

I have questioned his motives because of his problem with consistency.  He falls right along with Illyrio.  The fat man whose plans change with the wind.  LF is the same.  We have to wait until we know their true motives.  Walder changes his mind too but it doesn't look inconsistent because we know his motives changed as he reacts to Robb.

I don't think Illyrio's plans have changed all that much. 

I agree that Littlefinger is all over the place in how he moves and schemes. But Illyrio has been pretty consistent thus far. Most of his plans are secrets but what we know of him is consistent.

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On 1/6/2021 at 3:13 AM, Quoth the raven, said:

I have questioned his motives because of his problem with consistency.  He falls right along with Illyrio.  The fat man whose plans change with the wind.  LF is the same.  We have to wait until we know their true motives.  Walder changes his mind too but it doesn't look inconsistent because we know his motives changed as he reacts to Robb.

Petyr pretty much wanted Catelyn. But he had to get rid of Ned. 

His motive actually changed when Catelyn died, but he probably already eanted to get Sansa out of KL at thst point. Maybe he wanted to achieve her trust with it.

From the point of Catelyn's death, he pretty much does what he does for saving his own ass, with gaining enough military support to be safe. He also wants Sansa for himself, once zhe girl gets back Winterfell with the help of the Vale

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