NFL 2021 By Henne Means Necessary

[dbunting]

17 hours ago, briantw said:

It's pretty crazy when you think about it.  You've got Rodgers and Brady likely to give it at least one more go.  Pittsburgh is chained to Big Ben's corpse so he'll be back another year.  Stafford will be starting somewhere.  Wilson, Prescott, and Watson are all playing consistently great.  Matt Ryan is still alive.

Mahomes and Jackson were MVPs in their second season and Mahomes is in another Super Bowl.  Allen made a big leap this year and led the Bills to a big playoff win.  Baker was being rated as a top five QB by PFF over the back half of the season and led the Browns to their first playoff win since Bill Belichick was coaching the team in the nineties.  You've got a bunch of first and second year guys that look promising like Murray, Burrow, and Herbert.  Maybe Hurts too, although who the hell knows what the Eagles are doing right now.  Apparently Kirk Cousins is good?  Goff is meh but not going anywhere.

That's basically half a league's worth of either established stud quarterbacks, up-and-coming stars, guys on the cusp, solid veterans, or guys who are at least good enough to lock down their team's starting spot for the next few years.  And there's about to be an injection of new talent this year with Lawrence, Fields, and a few others in the draft.

Of course, some of the above will implode like Wentz did, but still. 

What I remember most is an article from like 5+/- years ago where the concern was a lack of QB talent in the NFL and oh me oh my how will we get through this. Those colleges aren't getting us NFL caliber talent, they run the spread etc etc

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Says the man who hates on Dak any chance he can.

I don’t hate on Dak, I just wouldn’t give him a giant contract. If I ran the Cowboys I would have tried to trade him for a monster haul prior to his injury. One interesting trade proposal I’ve heard is trading him and a first for Watson, which really isn’t a bad deal for either side.

[dbunting]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don’t hate on Dak, I just wouldn’t give him a giant contract. If I ran the Cowboys I would have tried to trade him for a monster haul prior to his injury. One interesting trade proposal I’ve heard is trading him and a first for Watson, which really isn’t a bad deal for either side.

Sounds great in theory but who is gonna give up a monster haul for a guy on a franchise tag? Not to mention all the pissed off Dallas fans when whoever we had as QB isn't as good as Dak? Watson wasn't even thought of as being available last offseason. Hell almost no top QB's were.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, dbunting said:

Sounds great in theory but who is gonna give up a monster haul for a guy on a franchise tag? Not to mention all the pissed off Dallas fans when whoever we had as QB isn't as good as Dak? Watson wasn't even thought of as being available last offseason. Hell almost no top QB's were.

The franchise tag is irrelevant. If he was to be traded he'd be able to negotiate at least the outline of a deal before it would be completed. 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The franchise tag is irrelevant. If he was to be traded he'd be able to negotiate at least the outline of a deal before it would be completed. 

I don't know why you're claiming it's irrelevant.  The fact the trading team would need to negotiate a new deal fundamentally and significantly lowers his trade value.  This is a basic rule in any sport - the closer the player's contract is to expiring, the less trade value the player has (unless he's determined to be overpaid, then the opposite).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know why you're claiming it's irrelevant.  The fact the trading team would need to negotiate a new deal fundamentally and significantly lowers his trade value.  This is a basic rule in any sport - the closer the player's contract is to expiring, the less trade value the player has (unless he's determined to be overpaid, then the opposite).

Not always. The Texans traded two first rounders for a guy on an expiring contract. If Dak's trade value was lowered, it would only be at the margins. Cowboys could easily get three first rounders for him, and probably more if multiple teams are trying to get him. And regarding negotiations, what it really means is what you said, that the player will get overpaid. 

[Jace, Extat]

The Cowboys couldn't get three 1s for Dak. Two maybe, before the injury, but they're not getting that offer now. Deshaun is worth three 1s.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not always.

I mean you can argue the extent it lowers his value, but yes, it always does.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

The Cowboys couldn't get three 1s for Dak. Two maybe, before the injury, but they're not getting that offer now. Deshaun is worth three 1s.

If a middling LT gets you two firsts, a top 10 QB in his mid 20’s gets you a fair bit more. And I can see Watson going for a lot more than three. The Texans should probably get the richest return ever for him.

17 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean you can argue the extent it lowers his value, but yes, it always does.

Not in the NBA. In some instances players actually have more trade value when they’re on an expiring contract.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not in the NBA. In some instances players actually have more trade value when they’re on an expiring contract.

Again, yes, in terms of a salary dump.  You're really just being pedantic at this point.

[briantw]

4 hours ago, dbunting said:

What I remember most is an article from like 5+/- years ago where the concern was a lack of QB talent in the NFL and oh me oh my how will we get through this. Those colleges aren't getting us NFL caliber talent, they run the spread etc etc

Talent ebbs and flows in the NFL at every position.  Right now it's looking great at all the skill positions other than TE, which is a bit of a wasteland.  Of course, we have the best TE prospect in a good long while in the draft this year.

I think at least part of it is that coaching on the whole has gotten a lot better.  You have far more coaches scheming to the strengths of their players and putting them in a position to succeed than in the past.  There are still plenty of shit coaches, but that will probably always be the case because it's inevitable that some guys will nail the interview but be unable to cope with the mental faculties the job of head coach requires.  The best example of that I can come up with is Kitchens with the Browns last year.  He said all the right things about how he was going to run the team but then did absolutely none of them.

[Jace, Extat]

43 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If a middling LT gets you two firsts, a top 10 QB in his mid 20’s gets you a fair bit more. And I can see Watson going for a lot more than three. The Texans should probably get the richest return ever for him.

 

Unfortunately the Cowboys don't get to trade with the Texans. Everyone knew the Tunsil deal was insane when it happened. Two good 1s may not get the Cowboys to give you Dak, but paying more is asinine. He's a good player, but there are other options for cheaper. 

Ramsay and Adams were superstar defenders who wanted off bad teams. The trade partners were perennial playoff teams that thought they had their offenses settled.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Unfortunately the Cowboys don't get to trade with the Texans. Everyone knew the Tunsil deal was insane when it happened. Two good 1s may not get the Cowboys to give you Dak, but paying more is asinine. He's a good player, but there are other options for cheaper. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last decade haven't we seen three teams part with more than three first round picks to move up and draft a QB? Doesn't seem that odd to trade the same for a young top 10 QB, and at least then you're getting a known entity. 

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last decade haven't we seen three teams part with more than three first round picks to move up and draft a QB? Doesn't seem that odd to trade the same for a young top 10 QB, and at least then you're getting a known entity. 

Meanwhile Mariotta is a backup on the Raiders, Wentz got Peterson fired, and Goff is shielding Kurt Cousins from being labeled the most albatrossal player in the league. But if you want that lifestyle I'm not here to judge.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

17 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Meanwhile Mariotta is a backup on the Raiders, Wentz got Peterson fired, and Goff is shielding Kurt Cousins from being labeled the most albatrossal player in the league. But if you want that lifestyle I'm not here to judge.

And you didn't even mention RG3. But this makes my point for me. I'd rather bet the farm on something I know than something I don't. 

[Kalbear]

I think it makes it clear that you shouldn't, as a rule, bet the farm. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It does seem to fail most of the time, but I'd still bet the farm on Lawrence or Watson. I'd do any of the deals for the aforementioned players if it netted me one of those two, especially if my roster is otherwise well rounded and ready to go. 

[mcbigski]

On 1/25/2021 at 9:51 AM, Cas Stark said:

That isn't why the lost the game.  Going for the field goal instead of a touchdown is why the lost the game.  IMO.

For your reading pleasure:

https://deadspin.com/tom-brady-has-been-to-more-super-bowls-than-every-franc-1846124311

To appreciate what Brady has been able to do, you need to understand just how insane it is to make it to the biggest annual sporting event this country puts on. The New England Patriots are the only franchise that has more appearances than Brady, with 11. And with the way he’s playing at 43, who’s to say that he can’t at least tie that before he retires?

I thought GB should have been going for 2 earlier but I don't have to do press conferences.

On 1/25/2021 at 1:07 PM, Jace, Basilissa said:

Probably doesn't lead to anything. But he learned from Favre and is famously vindictive. Could lead to something.

It's the elves that say yea and nay right?  Or do the fucking wizards do that too while also being subtle and quick to anger?

On 1/25/2021 at 6:00 PM, briantw said:

It's pretty crazy when you think about it.  You've got Rodgers and Brady likely to give it at least one more go.  Pittsburgh is chained to Big Ben's corpse so he'll be back another year.  Stafford will be starting somewhere.  Wilson, Prescott, and Watson are all playing consistently great.  Matt Ryan is still alive.

I just decided I'd love to see Fitz in Pittsburgh next year.  Granted JuJu is probably gone, but they still have plenty of talent, a decent OL and an air out mentality.  Not as much as I want to see him in NE to complete the AFC East quadrilogy, but still.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last decade haven't we seen three teams part with more than three first round picks to move up and draft a QB? Doesn't seem that odd to trade the same for a young top 10 QB, and at least then you're getting a known entity. 

How does that compare to haul needed to move up one spot for Mitch Trubisky?   I mean, imagine if the Bears didn't pull the trigger and had to settle for the next QB on the board.

[PyroclasticFlow]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

And you didn't even mention RG3. But this makes my point for me. I'd rather bet the farm on something I know than something I don't. 

Don’t forget the “best pure pocket passer in the draft” (2018), the handsome fella from UCLA who’s on his what, fourth team?? 

Man actually had the nerve to be pissed at the Cards for drafting Murray

[dbunting]

14 hours ago, briantw said:

I think at least part of it is that coaching on the whole has gotten a lot better.  You have far more coaches scheming to the strengths of their players and putting them in a position to succeed than in the past.  

This is something that never made sense. Draft a guy who excels at X and put him in your Y system, because after all it's your system, and wonder why it doesn't work. Same with free agents. Teams will sign a zone corner and play him man and wonder why he gets burned.