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2 minutes ago, DMC said:

If we still need a third stimulus - that is going to get Manchin's vote no less - by October 2022, I think the conditions are invariably bad for Dems.  I mean, if you're referring to some minor shit, sure, I guess.

Who the fuck cares about need here? 

Get broadly agreeable policies like big infrastructure spending plans that you can get 50 people on board, and get them in. Do it because they're good popular policy, and do them as big as you fucking can. It's not like the US 'needed' a shitty tax break for corporations in 2018. 

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2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I’m not arguing with you about the policies that Manchin will or won’t agree to with a 51 vote threshold. I’m arguing that Manchin is setting Democrats up to get slaughtered in 2 years and I’m shocked that everyone is so sanguine about it. Refusing to even consider measures to reform/abolish the filibuster before you even know what tack Republicans will take is strategically moronic.

I’m saying that I believe that Dems got shellacked because of the ACA vote is based on a false premise. Rather, I believe that people put Democrats in charge in 2009 to do something, and Democrats dicked around too long and ceded the messaging ground to Republicans through the asinine efforts to try to pass bipartisan bills. 

Along with that, I’m saying it’s stupid to think Republicans will act any differently this time around, when it appears that Democrats are ready to step into the same stupid fucking trap. I can’t see how the outcome will be any different this time because the only way McConnell can keep his caucus from tearing itself apart is by uniting it against anything Democrats do to prove to the Trump wing that they are still fighting Democrats. 

There's a whole lot of goalpost moving here.

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11 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

He had 60 votes in the senate. And even he didn't do enough with his power; he could have potentially reshaped the US for generations. But he blew it.

Mandatory reminder, he had a 60 vote Senate for two months, and there were still conservative Dems back then that were being sticks in the mud. 

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just the logistics of getting a third spending bill through.

Ah.  Well, in that case the House is definitely gonna wanna table it until after the election.  At least the one's that actually have to campaign for their seats.

1 minute ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

Get broadly agreeable policies like big infrastructure spending plans that you can get 50 people on board, and get them in. Do it because they're good popular policy, and do them as big as you fucking can. It's not like the US 'needed' a shitty tax break for corporations in 2018. 

Sure.  In this hypothetical though I'm wondering why you didn't already get that shit through in the first two reconciliation bills?

3 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Rather, I believe that people put Democrats in charge in 2009 to do something, and Democrats dicked around too long and ceded the messaging ground to Republicans through the asinine efforts to try to pass bipartisan bills. 

The ACA was not a bipartisan bill (at least by the time the Dems actually took it up).  And voting for it costing Dem MCs seats is empirically verified.  Now, you could argue certain policies would not be as unpopular as the ACA was at that time.  But like I said to Grim, this is pointless without specifics.

6 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Along with that, I’m saying it’s stupid to think Republicans will act any differently this time around

I don't know why you think I think the GOP is going to act differently this time around.  Never have thought that at all, and in fact was complaining just this morning that it seems Biden thinks that.  I guess maybe my tangent about dropping the filibuster threshold to 55 make bills more plausible, but that was in contrast to the (lack of) plausibility of getting Manchin to abolish the filibuster.

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Sure.  In this hypothetical though I'm wondering why you didn't already get that shit through in the first two reconciliation bills?

Depends a lot on what you need in those first two. The first one, IMO, is going to be the 2T+ covid bill. The second one I think could be immigration reform or healthcare reform. I doubt they'll be able to do a 10T infrastructure bill as part of those things. 

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7 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

I doubt they'll be able to do a 10T infrastructure bill as part of those things. 

I don't think $10 trillion for infrastructure is getting 50 votes.  The way I'm imagining it is agreed on the first one, but then the second one put everything you can in it - healthcare, infrastructure, climate change and HR1 if possible.  While still vague, it sounds like this is indeed what Biden is planning for his February bill (which, again, I'd wait to rollout until the summer at the earliest).  I'm not sure how immigration reform can get into reconciliation, and Biden's proposal strongly suggests they don't think so either.

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Regarding a minimum wage hike and other difficult pieces of legislation:

DACA was done pretty much through executive orders.  Trump spent a fair chunk of his term trying to kill it one way or another and failed.  If my hazy memory serves, it even sort of weathered a supreme court challenge.  If my understanding is correct (probably not) this was so because DACA had been in effect for so long and affected so many people that it was 'established'  (okay, poor word choice).  

 

So...say Biden ups the minimum wage via executive order in any circumstance/type of employment he can get away with - and keeps it there for the duration of his term.  Even should republicans win the white house in 2024, killing that increase would tick off millions of voters, many of them republican.  (might have to get very clever with the wording of the relevant executive order)

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25 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

So...say Biden ups the minimum wage via executive order in any circumstance/type of employment he can get away with - and keeps it there for the duration of his term. 

Obama was able to get away with DACA because the presidency has a wide berth on immigration policy.  Same reason Trump could do the travel ban.  That's not the case when it comes to the minimum wage.  The GOP would immediately challenge such an EO and, given the composition of SCOTUS, they would undoubtedly prevail - if it even reached them.  It'd probably be struck down by a lower court and not granted cert if the solicitor general appealed.

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24 minutes ago, DMC said:

Obama was able to get away with DACA because the presidency has a wide berth on immigration policy.  Same reason Trump could do the travel ban.  That's not the case when it comes to the minimum wage.  The GOP would immediately challenge such an EO and, given the composition of SCOTUS, they would undoubtedly prevail - if it even reached them.  It'd probably be struck down by a lower court and not granted cert if the solicitor general appealed.

Biden should still  be able to do a minimum wage hike for federal employees, contractors...and maybe vendors if worded carefully enough.  Make it a requirement that any company doing business with the federal government pay a full $15 minimum wage.   That would be the federal government looking after its own.  

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3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Imagine this under any other president:

-some of the worlds top public health experts self-censoring or moderating their speech so as not to bruise the ego of an insane man-child; so he doesn't fire them; so they can try to do their jobs; saving lives; during a pandemic.

- also https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-covid-vaccination-trump/index.html

How this isn't one of the biggest presidential scandals in history is beyond me.

 

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1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

Biden should still  be able to do a minimum wage hike for federal employees, contractors...and maybe vendors if worded carefully enough.  Make it a requirement that any company doing business with the federal government pay a full $15 minimum wage.   That would be the federal government looking after its own.  

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood.  Yes, agreed.  He can do something like this via an EO and should - it'd be an extension of what Obama did.

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Liz Cheney's problems pile up
Trump's allies in the House are moving quickly to try to oust her from GOP leadership.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/21/liz-cheneys-problems-pile-up-461218

Quote

 

Liz Cheney was once considered the future of the GOP. Now she’s fighting to keep her political career alive.

After voting to impeach Donald Trump last week, the highest-ranking woman in the House GOP finds herself at risk of losing her leadership post; staring down a pro-Trump primary challenge; and censured by some of her own party back home in Wyoming.


The most immediate threat to Cheney — a push by Trump loyalists to oust her as conference chair — has gained momentum inside the House GOP, although the process is complicated and could still sputter out. But at least 107 Republicans, or just over a majority, have communicated to the leaders of that effort that they would support removing Cheney from leadership on a secret ballot, according to multiple GOP sources involved in the effort. Others are threatening to boycott future conference meetings if she remains in power.


And at least two members have privately signaled interest in replacing Cheney as the No. 3 Republican, sources say: Reps. Elise Stefanik and Lee Zeldin, two New Yorkers who both sprang to popularity in the party after fiercely defending Trump during his first impeachment.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Imagine this under any other president:

-some of the worlds top public health experts self-censoring or moderating their speech so as not to bruise the ego of an insane man-child; so he doesn't fire them; so they can try to do their jobs; saving lives; during a pandemic.

- also https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-covid-vaccination-trump/index.html

How this isn't one of the biggest presidential scandals in history is beyond me.

 

We're getting hit worse than a 9/11 every day, but the House did investigate Hillary Clinton seven or eight times because four people died in Benghazi. 

Perspective. 

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9 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Liz Cheney's problems pile up
Trump's allies in the House are moving quickly to try to oust her from GOP leadership.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/21/liz-cheneys-problems-pile-up-461218

 

Lay down with rabid dogs, even if you have a rabies shot, you will still get chewed up.

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8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

We're getting hit worse than a 9/11 every day, but the House did investigate Hillary Clinton seven or eight times because four people died in Benghazi. 

Perspective. 

Well, that's because Hillary Clinton secretly flew over there herself and personally shot them in the back of the head, while they were hog tied. The video evidence is right there on Hunter Biden's laptop, which is going to be released any day now.

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54 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

don't think that people are going to be more or less forgiving. I don't think it matters. 74 million people voted for Trump. Think things like their actual situation matter?

 

Curious she and some of the other Republicans who voted to impeach will flip to the Democrats side.

 

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4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Again It should be noted manchin isn’t even the only Democrat not on board with this.

Yeah, is there any evidence that there is a majority of Democrat senators who support removal of the filibuster? 

4 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

All else being equal, it will absolutely tank their chances. I’m not disagreeing that it’s improbable that Manchin will vote to reform the filibuster (he almost certainly won’t). Just that it’s stupid and locks Democrats into a far worse position than they were in 2009.

What are the policies that can not be done by reconciliation, and can you explain why only doing those will save Dems in 20222?  Because it feels like a lot of good stuff can be done via reconciliation.  

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