Martell Plan: Reversed Tasks

[Angel Eyes]

Would things have gone better for Doran if Quentyn was sent to King's Landing to observe the court and Oberyn was sent to Meereen?

[sifth]

25 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Would things have gone better for Doran if Quentyn was sent to King's Landing to observe the court and Oberyn was sent to Meereen?

I've been saying this for years and the answer is probably "yes". I thought Quentyn would get himself killed risking his life for Tyrion and Oberyn has been to Essos before, he knows his way around and has contacts. To be honest Doran's entire plan seems very stupid, from a readers POV.

[Lord Varys]

Quentyn wasn't smart enough to oversee the politicking at court.

And Oberyn is far too old to marry a young queen. And not really highborn enough. The original contract with Viserys III was that the daughter of the Prince of Dorne marry him, not his brother his sister. It was a stretch to try to marry Quentyn to Dany but it was closer to the original deal.

Oberyn turns out to be the kind of man Dany may have found more interesting than Quentyn ... but marriages aren't really about looks and feelings and all that. They are about contracts and political necessities. Quentyn's problem was that he came at the wrong time ... and it would have been the same with Oberyn. Not to mention that he may have quickly faced Daario in a duel considering his character.

There was no chance that Prince Frog could woo Daenerys, but if Oberyn was mocking Dany's paramour he may have gotten himself killed, too.

[Angel Eyes]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Quentyn wasn't smart enough to oversee the politicking at court.

And Oberyn is far too old to marry a young queen. And not really highborn enough. The original contract with Viserys III was that the daughter of the Prince of Dorne marry him, not his brother his sister. It was a stretch to try to marry Quentyn to Dany but it was closer to the original deal.

Oberyn turns out to be the kind of man Dany may have found more interesting than Quentyn ... but marriages aren't really about looks and feelings and all that. They are about contracts and political necessities. Quentyn's problem was that he came at the wrong time ... and it would have been the same with Oberyn. Not to mention that he may have quickly faced Daario in a duel considering his character.

There was no chance that Prince Frog could woo Daenerys, but if Oberyn was mocking Dany's paramour he may have gotten himself killed, too.

Doran didn't exactly give Quentyn the tools to succeed in his task when he sent him to Meereen.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think the plan would have worked a hell of a lot better. Quentyn can just take his father's seat and be an observer at court. Oberyn would have done better traveling through the Disputed Lands and getting to Meereen. He doesn't have to marry Dany, but he can still propose marriage between her and Quentyn. Although Dany might feel like she's been tricked once she laid eyes on Quentyn since she found him neither enchanted nor enchanting.

I find that for someone who thinks his plans through the way Doran does, he sure seems to bumble his way around a lot. It's not like his latest idea of sending the Sand Snakes to different places and different tasks is brighter.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Quentyn wasn't smart enough to oversee the politicking at court.

And Oberyn is far too old to marry a young queen. And not really highborn enough. The original contract with Viserys III was that the daughter of the Prince of Dorne marry him, not his brother his sister. It was a stretch to try to marry Quentyn to Dany but it was closer to the original deal.

Oberyn turns out to be the kind of man Dany may have found more interesting than Quentyn ... but marriages aren't really about looks and feelings and all that. They are about contracts and political necessities. Quentyn's problem was that he came at the wrong time ... and it would have been the same with Oberyn. Not to mention that he may have quickly faced Daario in a duel considering his character.

There was no chance that Prince Frog could woo Daenerys, but if Oberyn was mocking Dany's paramour he may have gotten himself killed, too.

The book makes it pretty clear, that Quentyn being ugly was one of the main issues to why Dany turned down the Dorne alliance. Also Oberyn didn't need to be the one to marry her, just oversee the alliance and new marriage patch was made.

[CamiloRP]

Turth is, either Doran is an idiot, or he wanted Quent to fail.

[TheLastWolf]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Would things have gone better for Doran if Quentyn was sent to King's Landing to observe the court and Oberyn was sent to Meereen?

HELL YEAH! 

[Canon Claude]

Oberyn would never have missed the chance to avenge Elia. I can easily imagine a scene where Doran does plan to send Oberyn east, but Oberyn refuses and insists that he’s going to King’s Landing to confront the Lannisters.

[James West]

Tyrion would have had to defend himself.  He is not going to pick Quentyn to champion his trial.  A lot would have changed in Kingslanding.  Oberyn would have no better luck in changing the outcome in Meereen. 

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Doran didn't exactly give Quentyn the tools to succeed in his task when he sent him to Meereen.

He would have been even more incapable to do the job in KL - which was something you needed experience for.

13 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think the plan would have worked a hell of a lot better. Quentyn can just take his father's seat and be an observer at court. Oberyn would have done better traveling through the Disputed Lands and getting to Meereen. He doesn't have to marry Dany, but he can still propose marriage between her and Quentyn. Although Dany might feel like she's been tricked once she laid eyes on Quentyn since she found him neither enchanted nor enchanting.

I find that for someone who thinks his plans through the way Doran does, he sure seems to bumble his way around a lot. It's not like his latest idea of sending the Sand Snakes to different places and different tasks is brighter.

Oberyn would have botched the secrecy part of the Dany plan. He is too well-known in Essos.

13 hours ago, sifth said:

The book makes it pretty clear, that Quentyn being ugly was one of the main issues to why Dany turned down the Dorne alliance. Also Oberyn didn't need to be the one to marry her, just oversee the alliance and new marriage patch was made.

The reason why nothing came of that alliance was that Daenerys had no interest in going to Westeros now. She was in love with Daario, determined to marry Hizdahr for political reasons, and set on her decision to remain in Meereen.

Nobody could have changed that - not Quentyn, not Aegon, not Oberyn, not Euron if they had shown up, personally. The only thing which could have made a difference if they had shown up with a big army before the second sacking of Astapor and before Daenerys had agreed to marry Hizdahr if he could end the violence in Meereen.

Like Varys/Illyrio, Doran assumed Daenerys was eager to get to Westeros - and if that had been the case then a Dornish consort and the spears of Dorne would have been very important to her. But as it turned out - she didn't give a damn about Westeros. She still doesn't, so any offer of an alliance there isn't something that will be very important to her.

[The Commentator]

17 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Would things have gone better for Doran if Quentyn was sent to King's Landing to observe the court and Oberyn was sent to Meereen?

The Martells acted too late.  They should have been helping King Viserys The Third and Princess Daenerys.  Now they want to hop on the moving train and ride it all the way to the throne.  It won’t work.  Fortune and power doesn’t come to those who are too afraid of risk.  Doran entered the game too late.  It would not matter who he sent.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He would have been even more incapable to do the job in KL - which was something you needed experience for.

Oberyn would have botched the secrecy part of the Dany plan. He is too well-known in Essos.

The reason why nothing came of that alliance was that Daenerys had no interest in going to Westeros now. She was in love with Daario, determined to marry Hizdahr for political reasons, and set on her decision to remain in Meereen.

Nobody could have changed that - not Quentyn, not Aegon, not Oberyn, not Euron if they had shown up, personally. The only thing which could have made a difference if they had shown up with a big army before the second sacking of Astapor and before Daenerys had agreed to marry Hizdahr if he could end the violence in Meereen.

Like Varys/Illyrio, Doran assumed Daenerys was eager to get to Westeros - and if that had been the case then a Dornish consort and the spears of Dorne would have been very important to her. But as it turned out - she didn't give a damn about Westeros. She still doesn't, so any offer of an alliance there isn't something that will be very important to her.

She also has an inner thought, on if she'd have turned Quentyn's offer down, if he looked like his handsome friend Ser. Gerris. Just the fact that she would have considered Quentyn's offer more, simply based on his looks says volumes on Dany's political mindset.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, sifth said:

She also has an inner thought, on if she'd have turned Quentyn's offer down, if he looked like his handsome friend Ser. Gerris. Just the fact that she would have considered Quentyn's offer more, simply based on his looks says volumes on Dany's political mindset.

She would have considered the offer more seriously, yes, if Quentyn had looked better ... but she wouldn't have married him in any case.

Doran had no idea about Dany's character or tastes in men. The entire thing is a wild gamble based on his assumption that Dany would want her father's throne. As it turns out, that isn't exactly a high priority for her. And this is the reason why she doesn't care for Quentyn much. Marrying him would give her nothing that she needs right now - which was a way to create a lasting peace in Slaver's Bay.

And Oberyn is far too old for Daenerys if you ask me. She likes somewhat older man, but Drogo was a man around thirty and Daario doesn't seem to be older than Drogo (to me he appears somewhat younger). And Oberyn is past forty already. She may have found him more interesting than Quentyn, but she already had a rogue in Daario.

The chance that Daenerys would agree to a marriage pact with the Dornish point blank without first meeting Quentyn - in a scenario where Oberyn would speak for him - are about zero if you ask me. She no longer is a position in which she would allow men to choose a husband for her.

[sifth]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The chance that Daenerys would agree to a marriage pact with the Dornish point blank without first meeting Quentyn - in a scenario where Oberyn would speak for him - are about zero if you ask me. She no longer is a position in which she would allow men to choose a husband for her.

She might, if that man came with a safe port and an army willing to help her retake her birthright. Heck she basically allows a lady she hardly even knows to marry her off to Hizdahr.............a man who can "magically" bring peace to her city. The fact that she falls for such an obvious trap, is just insulting to Dany's character. Even him proving results, just shows he's in league with the people trying to kill her.

If Dany really cared about bring peace to Meereen, she wouldn't have randomly killed 163 Great Masters. She'd have put all of them on trial and see which ones were for the killing of children and which were against it. When you just randomly treat everyone of a certain class as guilty, you show that you care more about revenge, than justice. This only fuels opposition. What Dany really wanted was a break from being a warrior queen, as she told "Jorah" in her fever dream, at the end of ADWD. Little did Dany know that fighting a war is easy, when compared to governing. On the plus side, I think Dany finally snaps to her senses at the end of the book.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, sifth said:

She might, if that man came with a safe port and an army willing to help her retake her birthright. Heck she basically allows a lady she hardly even knows to marry her off to Hizdahr.............a man who can "magically" bring peace to her city. The fact that she falls for such an obvious trap, is just insulting to Dany's character. Even him proving results, just shows he's in league with the people trying to kill her.

It is her call, and she is persuaded, not forced or dictated. Dany does have many other options than to marry Hizdahr ... but she wants to take that road because she does want peace.

And, again, she doesn't care about 'her birthright': 'Westeros must wait.' She might get there, eventually, or not, if she never feels like going there. While she wants to rule Meereen nobody offering her swords in Westeros is going to have success with her. She doesn't need them, and they are only distracting her from what she actually wants to do right now.

Just now, sifth said:

If Dany really cared about bring peace to Meereen, she wouldn't have randomly killed 163 Great Masters. She'd have put all of them on trial and see which ones were for the killing of children and which were against it. When you just randomly treat everyone of a certain class as guilty, you show that you care more about revenge, than justice. This only fuels opposition. What Dany really wanted was a break from being a warrior queen, as she told "Jorah" in her fever dream, at the end of ADWD. Little did Dany know that fighting a war is easy, when compared to governing. On the plus side, I think Dany finally snaps to her senses at the end of the book.

You are confused about the chronology. The execution of the Great Masters was both 'war justice' and revenge - done in the heat of the moment after she and the rebelling slaves had taken Meereen.

But if you go back to the text you will notice that Dany's decision 'to be a queen' is only made later, at the end of that chapter. Only then does she made the decision to be a queen to both the former slaves and the former slavers. This decision changes her policies completely.

And stop pretending that there is any indication in the books that anyone in the Meereenese elite opposed the idea of crucifying slave children - that is nowhere indicated, nor is there any indication that she targeted innocent people at all. The Great Masters ruled Meereen collectively as far as we know, and there is no indication that there was an anti-slavery party among them.

And since the children were crucified the entire elite is either guilty because they commanded it - or complicit because they did not prevent it.

The much bigger issue than those 163 people is slavery and theft. The Great Masters and the other freeborn Meereenese who owned slaves want their property and privileges back. That's what the conflict is about.

[sifth]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is her call, and she is persuaded, not forced or dictated. Dany does have many other options than to marry Hizdahr ... but she wants to take that road because she does want peace.

 

And stop pretending that there is any indication in the books that anyone in the Meereenese elite opposed the idea of crucifying slave children - that is nowhere indicated, nor is there any indication that she targeted innocent people at all. The Great Masters ruled Meereen collectively as far as we know, and there is no indication that there was an anti-slavery party among them.

She isn't being forced to take the Dorne offer either, it's simply the smarter of the two choices given to her. Trust one of the ruling parties of a society you openly wronged when you randomly killed 163 of it's nobility, without a proper trial and who's economy you completely destroyed. Or on the other hand, trust the noble family who fought, bleed and died for your family. I'm sorry, but the moment Dany randomly choose to kill 163 nobles, without any form of due process, she lost any chance of properly ruling Meereen; since in the ruling classes eyes, she cared more about revenge, than justice. She might have been able to rule through fear, if she actually killed, the hostages she took from the Great Masters, but she screwed that up as well.

As for the second point, I don't judge in absolutes, like you do. I refuse to believe GRRM is a simplistic writer, who would make an entire city filled with people who were "alright" with crucifying children, just for shits and giggles. If anything, I view this as something GRRM should have explored in more detail. Heck the fact that Hizdahr's father was against the Great Masters plan and yet Dany killed him anyway, was one of the few things The TV show did right, over the books, IMO. There's a huge difference between killing 163 people because you think they are bad vs killing 163 people who you know are bad. Dany just choose the easier of the two paths and spends most of ADWD regretting that choice.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, sifth said:

She isn't being forced to take the Dorne offer either, it's simply the smarter of the two choices given to her. Trust one of the ruling parties of a society you openly wronged when you randomly killed 163 of it's nobility, without a proper trial and who's economy you completely destroyed. Or on the other hand, trust the noble family who fought, bleed and died for your family. I'm sorry, but the moment Dany randomly choose to kill 163 nobles, without any form of due process, she lost any chance of properly ruling Meereen; since in the ruling classes eyes, she cared more about revenge, than justice. She might have been able to rule through fear, if she actually killed, the hostages she took from the Great Masters, but she screwed that up as well.

The Dornish never did anything for Daenerys or Viserys III that either of the know about. They do not deserve trust just because they show up at the court of a powerful monarch, drawn there by the promise of dragons.

Can you point us to any quotes where the Meereenese elite actually gave two cents about those 163 dudes? Where it is clearly established that this thing is what makes it impossible for Dany to make get the old guard on board? I don't recall anything about that. Skahaz mentions that the Pahls are pretty pissed because their champion was killed ... and then some where among the 163, but that's it. Hizdahr and Galazza and Reznak all give no indication they give a shit about that thing.

Instead, what we get is all more mundane and realpolitik issues - the young slaver who lost his parents during the riots who is denied revenge, Galazza's cousin being pissed that his slaves now make money of skills 'he' taught them.

Overall, the people directing the opposition against Daenerys - which seem to be the Gree Grace and Hizdahr and Reznak - aren't that unhappy about her drowning the city in blood and doing away with the lazy, complacent, collective government they had before. Dany is the mount Hizdahr and Galazza want to ride to create a new Ghiscari empire, with a single ruler at the top rather than the bloated living corpses of the Great Masters. This is basically the ancien regime (without a king) being replaced by a Napoleon by the means of Dany's Robespierre.

And it is quite clear what the obvious choice would have been if the old guard weren't willing to come around - exterminate them completely, or at least take away all their wealth and possessions and then banish them from your city. The former slaves are a gigantic majority in Meereen. Daenerys could do everything without so much as a single freeborn Meereenese left in her city.

4 minutes ago, sifth said:

As for the second point, I don't judge in absolutes, like you do. I refuse to believe GRRM is a simplistic writer, who would make an entire city filled with people who were "alright" with crucifying children, just for shits and giggles. If anything, I view this as something GRRM should have explored in more detail. Heck the fact that Hizdahr's father was against the Great Masters plan and yet Dany killed him anyway, was one of the few things The TV show did right, over the books, IMO. There's a huge difference between killing 163 people because you think they are bad vs killing 163 people who you know are bad. Dany just choose the easier of the two paths and spends most of ADWD regretting that choice.

The slaves - which make up most of every city in Slaver's Bay - definitely weren't fine with what the Great Masters did. Also, perhaps, some invisible Meereenese middle class - if they exist. But they were not blamed, since the 163 come directly from the ranks of the Great Masters.

The elite definitely were guilty - because it is consensus among them that slaves are treated as property and it is entirely up to the master to decide the fate of his slave(s). I mean, the books show that again and again. Tyrion's entire arc as a slave of Yezzan's shows this. They can do what they want, if their masters come to an understanding that they are to be fed to the lions, they will be fed to the lions.

And if you go back to ASoS you also see how the Meereenese viewed Daenerys collectively when she was giving them her terms.

But to be sure - it is wrong that Dany chose who was crucified. The slavers themselves made that choice. They played along, became complicit in the execution of their peers.

The kind of standard you want to push is way beyond what's 'due process' in Martinworld. The kind of trials people are getting are the ones Tyrion got from his father or Lysa Arryn.

This is not a world where people are innocent until proven guilty. They are guilty when the powerful say they are ... and then they can perhaps prove their innocence. Or not. And nobody is going to grant a trial to the likes of the Cleganes or Roose or Ramsay Bolton - or Walder Frey and his get, for that matter. Their justice will be the sword, and nobody will actually demand 'proof' that they truly did what they stand accused of.

You see this very fine with Catelyn's 'justice'- Merrett Frey didn't deserve to die. He was a drunken fool who just played a role in the Red Wedding without actually killing anyone. Who is Catelyn to demand that Merrett turn against his own family and protect a shitty pretender and his ilk who basically shit on his father and family after everything the Freys did for them?

But he was part of the Red Wedding, just as the Great Masters were part of the crucifixion of children - either actively or passively.

And again - trials and stuff do not happen in war. There you get just cut down or summarily executed. That's how it goes when you sack or conquer a city. There is no rule of law in war ... especially not in this book series.

[Angel Eyes]

Does anybody know why Doran did nothing for Viserys aside from "secrecy"? He could have interceded when Willem Darry died, like fostering Viserys in Norvos with Mellario's family. Doran had no real excuse for not fostering Viserys; if Mellario was so angry about Quentyn being fostered away at Yronwood, why not send both Mellario and Arianne to Norvos or Tyrosh (as the Archon's daughter was fostered at Sunspear), Doran could arrange Viserys and Daenerys to come to Norvos, Mellario could have custody of at least one child, Viserys could meet his betrothed, and perhaps Doran could have a useful tool to plan a counter-revolution. By the time the series began, Viserys wasn't exactly a man anyone would want to marry.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Does anybody know why Doran did nothing for Viserys aside from "secrecy"? He could have interceded when Willem Darry died, like fostering Viserys in Norvos with Mellario's family. Doran had no real excuse for not fostering Viserys; if Mellario was so angry about Quentyn being fostered away at Yronwood, why not send both Mellario and Arianne to Norvos or Tyrosh (as the Archon's daughter was fostered at Sunspear), Doran could arrange Viserys and Daenerys to come to Norvos, Mellario could have custody of at least one child, Viserys could meet his betrothed, and perhaps Doran could have a useful tool to plan a counter-revolution. By the time the series began, Viserys wasn't exactly a man anyone would want to marry.

Doran never really cared for Viserys. He cares first about the safety of Dorne, second about his revenge against the Lannisters (and presumably also Robert), and third about a Targaryen restoration with the Martells as junior partners by means of marrying into the family.

The reason why he never took possession of Viserys and his sister is that he, most likely, correctly guessed that he couldn't hide that for long, and then he would risk war when he wasn't ready yet.

Also, we have no idea that Doran didn't do anything for the Targaryens. He could have sent money and he could have interceded with his friends in Essos, arranging for Viserys to come to Tyrosh, say.

Viserys III must have had strong protectors and patrons after Darry's death or else he would have ended up dead, enslaved, or penniless in the gutter mere days or weeks after he had to leave the house with the red door. He was still in his early teens at that time, after all.

So far it is also just conjecture that Viserys III had no idea about the marriage pact. It is possibly that Darry never told him ... or that Viserys III himself just never told Dany.