Robb should have attacked Tywin instead of Jaime

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 

I agree, but as I pointed, while the risk with Tywin was greater, the possible rewards were much larger

Right, but the loss would have been total with Tywin, whereas the Jaime gambit had a number of options open:

 - if they make it all the way to RR without being detected, they could smash Jaime's host and secure a base of ops in the riverlands;

 - if Jaime is alerted to their presence, they could retreat, preferably drawing off Jaime's horse to either defeat it at some advantageous point or getting them stuck in some mire somewhere or losing them long enough to swing back and smash the foot remaining at RR. The Blackfish should know those lands like the back of his hand while Jaime is a newbie.

 - they could pull all the way back to the Twins if need be, picking off riders and scouts guerilla-style all the way.

 - they could pin Jaime's horse against the river, leaving them no room to maneuver.

And as Robb noted, it's not just greater risk with Tywin, but virtually insurmountable risk because they are giving up the element of surprise and they are facing a larger army that is better armed and armored -- and they would still face another army after losing a third, perhaps half, of their army defeating the first one. So with Tywin, it's an all-or-nothing roll of the dice with low odds, while with Jaime you get multiple throws with far better odds of your own making.

[Lion of the West]

22 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Tywin is a ruthless veteran general. If there had been the possibility to annihilate the Northern army without significant costs, he would have taken it.

But Roose Bolton has been at war before and he is a cautious and careful man who don't seem like a gambler sort of person. So I think that the fact that so much of the Northern army escaped north has more to do with Roose's caution than with anything else. Also note that Tywin isn't very reckless in battle to my knowledge and thus both sides might have played it a bit more cautious than, say, Jaime or Robb would have done in the same situation, hence no dedicated chance for destruction or attempt at finishing off the retreating Northmen.

[The hairy bear]

On 1/26/2021 at 6:10 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Edmure not so much, but losing him was actually a potential advantage, as if he were to die, Cat (and later Robb or Bran) would be the heir to the Riverlands.

It's funny how you accuse Robb for failing to take the necessary risks to rescue Ned, while you deride him for rushing to rescue his uncle. By your logic, Robb should have rescued neither Ned nor Edmure, since their deaths would mean that he would inherit both the North and the Riverlands.

Of course Robb has not been raised that way. He would try to rescue both of them. If one of the rescues was easier, and its success allowed to recruit more men to confront the other with better chances of success, it's obvious which one should be addressed first.

On 1/26/2021 at 6:10 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It's definitely not the same position. Edmure had his back clear, Robb would not have, because Stafford Lannister would be a thing. Again, had Robb not lucked out with the trail and Grey Wind, which he had no means of predicting, he would be toast.

Stafford is described as an incapable old dullard, and his army composed of "raw green leavies".

I doesn't seem to me that they would suppose that much of a threat to the Riverlands, as Robb's army (the one that defeated them easily in the realm timeline) would be there to defend them.

On 1/26/2021 at 6:10 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Read the part about the Ruby Ford. The Ford would have ensured that Tywin's force would be anihilated.

You are making wild speculations and treating them as foregone conclusions.

• If Robb is able to defeat Tywin at the Green Fork (although Tywin was more experience, has chosen the ground and his army bigger),
• and if Robb is able to give the Lannisters pursuit after his victory (although his troops would be exhausted after an extenuating march while Tywin's men had spent the last days just waiting for them),
• and if Tywin chooses to return to Harrenhal via de Ruby Ford (Tywin would know if he's being followed, and could decide to use other potential crossings to the south. For instance, could have retreated to Saltpans)
• and if Tywin is incapable of mounting a solid defense at the Ruby Ford that allows his army to cross sacrificing a small part of it
• and if, in this second confrontation Robb wins again.... then yes, then the part of Tywin's army that would not have time to cross may be anihilated. That woud still leave you the part of the army that had crossed to deal with, including most of the command and the elite fighters, as they would be the ones who would cross first.

 

22 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

But Roose Bolton has been at war before and he is a cautious and careful man who don't seem like a gambler sort of person. So I think that the fact that so much of the Northern army escaped north has more to do with Roose's caution than with anything else. Also note that Tywin isn't very reckless in battle to my knowledge and thus both sides might have played it a bit more cautious than, say, Jaime or Robb would have done in the same situation, hence no dedicated chance for destruction or attempt at finishing off the retreating Northmen.

Agreed. I was only replying to the claim that if Tywin had pursued Roose's army, it would have been "annihilated". Tywin knew that such a chase is a risky endeavor and it's outcome wasn't a done deal. It could turn out badly for him. And precisely because he isn't reckless, he didn't pursue.

[John Suburbs]

On 1/27/2021 at 10:57 AM, Lion of the West said:

But Roose Bolton has been at war before and he is a cautious and careful man who don't seem like a gambler sort of person. So I think that the fact that so much of the Northern army escaped north has more to do with Roose's caution than with anything else. Also note that Tywin isn't very reckless in battle to my knowledge and thus both sides might have played it a bit more cautious than, say, Jaime or Robb would have done in the same situation, hence no dedicated chance for destruction or attempt at finishing off the retreating Northmen.

Not really. Remember Roose was a feint. His purpose was to make it seem like the entire northern army was marching south so as to cover the cavalry's movement to Riverrun. Neither he nor Robb intended for him to defeat Tywin, just keep him busy until the siege was lifted.

That's why Roose put in only a halt-hearted effort at the green fork, and even then he sent the other northern lords' men into battle, keeping his own in reserve so that he would have the largest army when the dust settled.

[saltedmalted]

Robb should have sent the Greatjon instead of Bolton. "Cautious" Roose managed to lose atleast 5,000 men despite not being under any compulsion to fight a battle.

 

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, saltedmalted said:

Robb should have sent the Greatjon instead of Bolton. "Cautious" Roose managed to lose atleast 5,000 men despite not being under any compulsion to fight a battle.

I mean I agree with you on Roose's quality as a leader (though I don't think it was 5000k, that's way too much by medieval standards, more like 2k or 3k), but at least he retreated organized and in good order. I doubt the Greatjon would have understood what the word retreat meant.

The problem was not with the commander, but with Robb, who as per usual, forgot to give proper orders. They should have been, come within a day of Tywin then retreat, because at that point it wouldn't have mattered anymore.

[The Young Maester]

Had robb attacked Tywin and won. He wouldn’t be able to completely rout tywins army.

Winning a pitched battle against Tywin is nothing compared to the strategic victory of ambushing Jamie and his whole army, whilst only taking casualties in the hundreds.

Marching on Jamie liberated riverrun and rallied the riverlords to robbs side. Had robb attacked Tywin, all he would gain is a handful of highborn prisoners and some casualties on tywins army.

He would still be stuck on the green Ford with no way to aid riverrun or free his father.

[saltedmalted]

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I doubt the Greatjon would have understood what the word retreat meant.

He could hardly have done worse than Roose.

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

though I don't think it was 5000

I don't have an estimate of my own. This number is present in the wiki.

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

The problem was not with the commander, but with Robb, who as per usual, forgot to give proper orders.

How was Robb supposed to give orders when he was out of contact?

I don't see this "caution" anywhere. By any standard losing over 20% of your soldiers in an unforced battle is awful.

22 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

but at least he retreated organized and in good order.

Bolton gets no plaudits for managing a mess that he created all by himself. 

 

[Lion of the West]

On 1/28/2021 at 5:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

Not really. Remember Roose was a feint. His purpose was to make it seem like the entire northern army was marching south so as to cover the cavalry's movement to Riverrun. Neither he nor Robb intended for him to defeat Tywin, just keep him busy until the siege was lifted.

That's why Roose put in only a halt-hearted effort at the green fork, and even then he sent the other northern lords' men into battle, keeping his own in reserve so that he would have the largest army when the dust settled.

Forgive me, but how isn't this Roose's caution? Roose was in command and he fought the battle cautiously and so could retreat in order. He didn't fall into Tywin's trap with a weak, I think it was the left flank, left flank used as a bait which Tywin hoped an inexperienced Robb bite at.

[Bernie Mac]

On 2/1/2021 at 3:04 PM, saltedmalted said:

He could hardly have done worse than Roose.

He very obviously could have done worse. He could have lost far more men.

Tywin was actually disappointed, he was hoping for a rout, but Roose did not fall into his trap

Lord Tywin drained his cup, his face expressionless. "I put the least disciplined men on the left, yes. I anticipated that they would break. Robb Stark is a green boy, more like to be brave than wise. I'd hoped that if he saw our left collapse, he might plunge into the gap, eager for a rout. Once he was fully committed, Ser Kevan's pikes would wheel and take him in the flank, driving him into the river while I brought up the reserve."

 

Roose being far more cautious than the likes of the Greatjon is the reason he was picked to lead

It was his first misstep, but how to make him see it without wounding his fledgling confidence? "Your father once told me that the Greatjon was as fearless as any man he had ever known."

Robb grinned. "Grey Wind ate two of his fingers, and he laughed about it. So you agree, then?"

"Your father is not fearless," Catelyn pointed out. "He is brave, but that is very different."

Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

"No. You want cold cunning, I should think, not courage."

"Roose Bolton," Robb said at once. "That man scares me."

 

So clearly other commanders, such as the Greatjon, may well have done a far worse job on the Green Fork than Roose did.

 

There is zero indication that Robb is unhappy with Roose, yet Robb when he is angry about battle performance, Edmure and Glover come to mind, he is not afraid to bring it up and voice his displeasure.

[saltedmalted]

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

So clearly other commanders, such as the Greatjon, may well have done a far worse job on the Green Fork than Roose did.

Do we have a reason to believe the Greatjon would have done worse? Other than a few comments about his personal temperament? The Umbers were still loyal to Robb, they can follow his directions well enough.

OTOH we have proof that Bolton rushed into battle like a fool even when he wasn't actively plotting treachery.

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Roose being far more cautious than the likes of the Greatjon is the reason he was picked to lead

 

Actions speak otherwise.

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He could have lost far more men.

Armies usually shatter and are left incapable of coherent action after taking high casualties. I think George just doesn't know or care about that.

21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is zero indication that Robb is unhappy with Roose, yet Robb when he is angry about battle performance, Edmure and Glover come to mind, he is not afraid to bring it up and voice his displeasure.

Which is completely strange.

George wanted Bolton to have enough distance between him and Robb so that he could plan his betrayal. 

@Lion of the West

Quote

Roose was in command and he fought the battle cautiously and so could retreat in order.

He shouldn't have fought the battle at all. Taking 5,000 casualties in an unecessary battle is not "cautious".

 

 

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

3 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

He shouldn't have fought the battle at all. Taking 5,000 casualties in an unecessary battle is not "cautious".

Tbf, that is on Robb, not on Roose. Robb's plan has Tywin engage the force

Quote

Tywin will march North to engage our main host

He never even considers withdrawing just before contact

[saltedmalted]

27 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Tbf, that is on Robb, not on Roose. Robb's plan has Tywin engage the force

It wasn't. Never mind Robb couldn't have actively controlled movements from so far. 

27 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

He never even considers withdrawing just before contact

We don't know what Robb told Bolton. We get our knowledge from Catelyn's POV. She doesn't mention if (or how) Tywin Lannister was to be engaged in battle.

Quote

. Robb had commanded him to continue the march south, to confront the huge Lannister army coming north under Lord Tywin.

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

 

It wasn't. Never mind Robb couldn't have actively controlled movements from so far. 

We don't know what Robb told Bolton. We get our knowledge from Catelyn's POV. She doesn't mention if (or how) Tywin Lannister was to be engaged in battle.

Agreed. Drawing him north was the plan, no need to actually fight him. If Roose wanted to fight him on defensive terms, he easily could have done so by picking the right site / terrain and making a fortified camp (like Tywin did). Hell he could have likely taken a really good defensive position at the Green Fork site based on what we see from Tyrion's POV.

[Lion of the West]

12 hours ago, saltedmalted said:

 

@Lion of the West

 

He shouldn't have fought the battle at all. Taking 5,000 casualties in an unecessary battle is not "cautious".

Unless I recall Roose followed the orders he had been given by his boss, which was to engage Tywin to keeping Tywin occupied while Robb struck at Jaime at Riverrun.

If the battle was unnecessary, Robb should either have left Roose with more clear orders or removed Roose from his command after the battle. The fact that neither happened hints strongly to me that Robb was totally ok with Roose engaging Tywin to keep Tywin's mind and focus away from what Robb was doing.

If you want I can try to dig up some quotes for this.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 minute ago, Lion of the West said:

Unless I recall Roose followed the orders he had been given by his boss, which was to engage Tywin to keeping Tywin occupied while Robb struck at Jaime at Riverrun.

If the battle was unnecessary, Robb should either have left Roose with more clear orders or removed Roose from his command after the battle. The fact that neither happened hints strongly to me that Robb was totally ok with Roose engaging Tywin to keep Tywin's mind and focus away from what Robb was doing.

If you want I can try to dig up some quotes for this.

Yeah, he either didn't give specific orders, or he gave them and Roose obeyed. When Cat and Robb discuss the upcoming battle, Robb clearly say he will send his main foot host to engage Tywin.

[Lion of the West]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Agreed. Drawing him north was the plan, no need to actually fight him. If Roose wanted to fight him on defensive terms, he easily could have done so by picking the right site / terrain and making a fortified camp (like Tywin did). Hell he could have likely taken a really good defensive position at the Green Fork site based on what we see from Tyrion's POV.

The problem with this is that Roose becomes passive and relies on Tywin to do what Roose wants while Roose has no way to force Tywin do what Roose wants. Finding defensive terrain is good, if Tywin comes after Roose. If Tywin however is comfortable with his own position he will just sit tight and there will be no battle between them. In fact it will offer Tywin the oppertunity to scout out Roose's position, very possibly find out that most of the heavy horse is gone and send a bird to Jaime to tell him that Robb's horse is not facing Tywin.

Do you see the problem with this defensive and passive approach in relation to what Robb's need to distract Tywin and at the same time keep Jaime in the dark about Robb's plan to march on the siege of Riverrun?

[saltedmalted]

10 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

Unless I recall Roose followed the orders he had been given by his boss, which was to engage Tywin to keeping Tywin occupied while Robb struck at Jaime at Riverrun.

Catelyn's POV says nothing of the sort. The point was to keep Tywin Lannister separated from his son. Bolton did not have enough men to risk an offensive battle.

He should have at least tried to pick a better position when he realised that the Lannisters were alert and preparing for battle.

10 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

Robb should either have left Roose with more clear orders or removed Roose from his command after the battle.

We do not know the details of the orders given by Robb. GRRM let Bolton plot in peace because the first three books were meant to show the downfall of the Starks.

10 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

If you want I can try to dig up some quotes for this.

Dig them up.

10 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

The fact that neither happened hints strongly to me that Robb was totally ok with Roose engaging Tywin to keep Tywin's mind and focus away from what Robb was doing.

 

Don't overthink it. We aren't meant to scrutinize every action with a microscope.

 @Alyn Oakenfist

This is the sole instance where the word "engage" appears in Catelyn's POV in AGoT:

Quote

When Lord Tywin gets word that we've come south, he'll march north to engage our main host

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

25 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

This is the sole instance where the word "engage" appears in Catelyn's POV in AGoT:

Which is also the sole instance fo Robb saying anything about what the army should do, so it's proof enough if you ask me.

[Lion of the West]

26 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Catelyn's POV says nothing of the sort. The point was to keep Tywin Lannister separated from his son. Bolton did not have enough men to risk an offensive battle.

The fact that Roose risked an offensive battle and got away, even with losses, means that he totally had the men to risk that.

26 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

He should have at least tried to pick a better position when he realised that the Lannisters were alert and preparing for battle.

Problem is that since Roose was doing a night march, he would only have realized that when very close to the Lannister army. And that means that he would have to try and wheel his army around, formed up and march away right infront of Tywin's army. That could easily have turned out even worse than the actual battle.

26 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

We do not know the details of the orders given by Robb. GRRM let Bolton plot in peace because the first three books were meant to show the downfall of the Starks.

If we're going to handwave things we don't like or can easily explain according to our pleasure as "necessary for the plot" or something like that. What is the purpose of this forum?

26 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Dig them up.

Found this little gem on Roose's actions so far. I don't promise anything but I'll try to return with another and longer quote from the council when Robb settles on the matter.

 

Quote

 

Roose Bolton

Hate to bother you but I have a question concerning Roose Bolton's betrayal. There are some that think that Roose had treachery in mind from the minute Robb left Winterfell. That his battle against Tywin was against Robb's wishes and meant to weaken the other Northern Houses. I believe he first thought of treachery after Stannis was defeated and Highgarden joined with the Lannisters. Could you clarify any of this or will is it something that is to be revealed later?

Lord Bolton may well have all sorts of things in mind. Whether or not he would act on any of those thoughts is another matter. Roose is the sort of fellow who keeps his thoughts to himself.

And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that.

 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Roose_Bolton

26 minutes ago, saltedmalted said:

Don't overthink it. We aren't meant to scrutinize every action with a microscope.

So why are we even discussing this at all then? What's the purpose of discussing character motivation when they only become relevant in the story if the author decides that they are relevant. Shouldn't the fact that we won't have a solid quote one way or another mean that Roose's options, orders etc. are entirely irrelevant?