Covid-19 #24: You Scream, I Scream, We all Scream for Vaccine

[Mlle. Zabzie]

8 minutes ago, Mr. X said:

Totes, indeed.

One positive thing I'll say for Cuomo and the NYS government is that they did back up their push to keep schools open by designating teachers to be in the first sets of people eligible for the vaccine (along with pretty much all healthcare workers, people age 65+, public transit workers, grocery store workers, and a handful of other groups). Got my first shot a few weeks back and get round two in about 10 days.

That said, the potential impact on students and their families is being gently brushed aside. There are schools currently urging parents to contact local and state governments to allow sports to resume, including things like basketball and (a spring season of) football. 

I’m so glad YOU got your first shot.  And indeed all my kids teachers have gotten their first dose (including specialists).  I’m really, really pleased.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Oh well yes. "It confirms". But I might have hesitated with "it's comforting that". Getting tired and eyesight going down the drain for the last year don't help...

 

Other good news I've seen is that other pharma across Europe are offering some factories to help produce the vaccines. Alas, this will take time and we'll have to wait for months before all these come online, which isn't awesome for Western countries who want them right now, but from a global point of view, it's great. It ensures that poorer countries will be able to get some substantial shiplments of vaccines this year, and not, say, in 2024.

O do I understand about tired and eyesight going down the drain.  Particularly this year.  The up side of that though, is that I can out-typo you probably any day or night!  I win!  So much  winning!  

As 

2 minutes ago, Mr. X said:

Cuomo and the NYS government is that they did back up their push to keep schools open by designating teachers to be in the first sets of people eligible for the vaccine (along with pretty much all healthcare workers, people age 65+, public transit workers, grocery store workers, and a handful of other groups).

Except most of us can't get an appointment no matter what groups we're in.  It's chaos here.  Plus more winning coz re-opening the restaurants, wedding venues, etc.  So good, when most people won't even get close to getting their first vaccination until late in April at the earliest.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Mr. X said:

That said, the potential impact on students and their families is being gently brushed aside. There are schools currently urging parents to contact local and state governments to allow sports to resume, including things like basketball and (a spring season of) football. 

It's been maddening driving by sports fields and seeing a ton of kids practicing and/or playing team sports with all the kids out there not wearing masks, and it's made worse by the parents gathering to watch, also not wearing masks in a lot of cases and not social distancing either. How dumb are the people ruling in favor of all of this?

3 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I’m so glad I got your first shot.  

Great Freudian slip. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

It's been maddening driving by sports fields and seeing a ton of kids practicing and/or playing team sports with all the kids out there not wearing masks, and it's made worse by the parents gathering to watch, also not wearing masks in a lot of cases and not social distancing either. How dumb are the people ruling in favor of all of this?

Great Freudian slip. 

Or just typing on a phone...  But I am genuinely happy for each person who gets a shot. I’m guessing mine will come in late June.  And that’s fine.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Or just typing on a phone...  But I am genuinely happy for each person who gets a shot. I’m guessing mine will come in late June.  And that’s fine.

I'm becoming a bit concerned over my own situation. The employee sign up link has gone from everything is booked for a while to link no longer is active.

Great...

[Mr. X]

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Except most of us can't get an appointment no matter what groups we're in.  It's chaos here.  Plus more winning coz re-opening the restaurants, wedding venues, etc.  So good, when most people won't even get close to getting their first vaccination until late in April at the earliest.

Yeah, this is very true. I jumped on the reservation website right when it went live and got a slot. One of my co-workers had a slot the first week but had to cancel it and has yet to be able to get a new appointment.

If you have a primary care physician, you may want to check with them. By coincidence, I had my annual physical the same week I booked the first shot and both the physicians assistant and my doctor led off with "We're going to get you scheduled for the vaccine!"  I turned them down since I'd already booked a slot, but it might be worth asking.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Mr. X said:

f you have a primary care physician, you may want to check with them.

They send me updates not to call them.  Have to go through yet another dashboard for their network, which isn't taking appointments, as the updates said, because they don't have any vaccine.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1.4k downvotes...

 

[ljkeane]

My stepdad has been given an appointment to get his first vaccine dose (on Wednesday). I'd guess it's probably the Astrazeneca one since it's not at either a hospital or a major vaccine distribution centre. My neighbour got his last week. It's good to see the vaccine rollout starting to reach people I know.

[Fragile Bird]

With all the criticism of the efficacy of the J&J vaccine and the fear that's is just not as good as the Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna vaccines, I just wanted to take a look at their Phase 3 studies to satisfy a question I had about timing.

Both Pfizer and Moderna started their Phase 3 trials on July 27. We were all in an incredible lull between storms at that time. In fact, I distinctly remember medical commentators on CNN saying they were worried about not enough Covid-19 being around to test the vaccine. That also means most people got their second shots some time in September. Then there had to be a couple of weeks after the last dose. I am going to assume they used data that they had by the end of September, because although they came out with their anouncements just days after the US election on Nov. 3, it does seem results were at HQ before the election and being studied. Remember, Trump angrily accused them of withholding information.

J&J started their Phase 3 on Sept. 23, with 44% of the participants in the US. Their press release, issued today, does not give any dates regarding the last shot administered, but they do talk about results 49 days after the the vaccine was administered, in addition to 14 days and 28 days. I am assuming the information period ended at the end of December, because it seems reasonable.

When the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines started to be administered there were 62.6k new daily cases in the US, two months later there were 34.2k cases (it was a Sunday), and by the end of September, 41.2k cases. For J&J, Sept. 23 started with 42.2k cases, two months later there were 176k daily cases and at the end of December there were 242k daily cases. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines started at the tail end of the peak from the 4th of July, the cases just went down after that. The J&J vaccine started at the build-up from Labor Day that just continued upward, so people who had the vaccine likely faced a much higher viral load than the people who received the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Who knows if they would have had such good efficacy percentages if they started on Sept. 23rd as well.

I know I am only mentioning the US, but a huge portion of the test subjects were in the US. I looked at world daily cases, since I wasn't going to look at the individual countries mentioned in all their press releases, and the patterns are similar

The press release points out that things only got better with time, there were no covid infections 49 days after receiving the vaccine.

This gives me a lot more confidence about the J&J vaccine. The secret really seems to be hunker down for another 50 days after you get the J&J, and if you can't, make sure to wear a good mask and follow all the other safety rules.

Here's their press release.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

[Fragile Bird]

I just want to add this thought. The Pfizer vaccine regime is 1st shot, second 28 days later, then about two weeks for full effects, so 42 days, with the Moderna it’s a week less, 35 days. 49 days for full effects from one shot that's cheaper and more easily stored looks good to me.

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

With all the criticism of the efficacy of the J&J vaccine and the fear that's is just not as good as the Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna vaccines, I just wanted to take a look at their Phase 3 studies to satisfy a question I had about timing.

Both Pfizer and Moderna started their Phase 3 trials on July 27. We were all in an incredible lull between storms at that time. In fact, I distinctly remember medical commentators on CNN saying they were worried about not enough Covid-19 being around to test the vaccine. That also means most people got their second shots some time in September. Then there had to be a couple of weeks after the last dose. I am going to assume they used data that they had by the end of September, because although they came out with their anouncements just days after the US election on Nov. 3, it does seem results were at HQ before the election and being studied. Remember, Trump angrily accused them of withholding information.

I remember an interview with the two lead scientists working on the virus saying the results were only unblinded very shortly before the announcement and that's the first confirmation they had about the success of the trial.

[Impmk2]

On 1/30/2021 at 3:34 AM, Filippa Eilhart said:

I think it’s important to note that there are several exemptions to the ban (which isn’t an obligation but a possibility), such as neighbourhood countries (Ukraine, Belarus), Middle East countries (Syria and others) and all of Covax.

Not true. Both Australia and New Zealand are signed on to Covax, and neither is on the exempt list.

[Padraig]

6 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Not true. Both Australia and New Zealand are members of Covax, and neither is on the exempt list.

There are financial contributors to COVAX (which includes the UK and I believe the US now) and there are those countries that will obtain the vaccine via COVAX over the next few months.  I suspect Australia and NZ is in the former list.

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

so people who had the vaccine likely faced a much higher viral load than the people who received the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Does that matter?  They were comparing those with the J&J vaccine v the placebo group.  So if there was a much higher viral load in the population, it would have affected both groups?

After 49 days, nobody died who had been given the J&J vaccine.  That's the kind of results you would be looking for. 

[Impmk2]

4 minutes ago, Padraig said:

There are financial contributors to COVAX (which includes the UK and I believe the US now) and there are those countries that will obtain the vaccine via COVAX over the next few months.  I suspect Australia and NZ is in the former list.

Ah that makes sense. Though it has been repeatedly claimed by the government here that sourcing through Covax is a possibility. Not that I think it's needed for either country. There's countries that should have far higher priority.

Edit: Actually both Australia and the UK are eligible and looking at buying through covax. So not sure what the distiction is, unless it's a matter their only source being through covax.

[S John]

I’ll do an update since several people commented on my post in the last thread.

The funeral was today and I did not go. My parents and my sister and brother-in-law did go. They all came by my house to meet my son for the first time before they left for the trip and I was able to pass them the letter that I wrote for my cousin to take with them. It was a calculated risk to have anyone at all over I guess, but I’ve kinda considered those 4 people my pod this whole time and we haven’t been around anyone else. Gotta draw the line on reclusiveness somewhere. I think my parents deserved to meet my son and if we get Covid from that then our fucking number has just finally come up.

Still, I had them come by before going to the funeral because I’m imposing 14 days on them from today because there were just so many people there.

Someone did livestream it and my wife and I were able to at least watch the funeral mass on the computer. It was horrible. Her father gave the eulogy and it really got to me. I’m trying to remember the last time I actually cried before today and it’s probably been since the last time they buried a young person whom I was close with.. must have been 20 years ago now. I think I made the right choice by not going but it doesn’t make it suck any less. I could see all the people on the stream that I should’ve been there with. 

[Fragile Bird]

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

I remember an interview with the two lead scientists working on the virus saying the results were only unblinded very shortly before the announcement and that's the first confirmation they had about the success of the trial.

Lol, I don't remember that, but I do remember the President of Pfizer going on CNBC (and speaking to other media) and saying he wouldn't do what Trump claimed. The problem is Dr. Albert Bourla several times said the results would be out at the end of October, and in the heated atmosphere of the election Trump said Bourla "didn't have the courage" to make the announcement before the election. I can also tell you that there were rumours being reported on CNBC and elsewhere before the election that Pfizer was going to announce very good numbers, so I kinda suspect somebody was leaking information. 

 

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

There are financial contributors to COVAX (which includes the UK and I believe the US now) and there are those countries that will obtain the vaccine via COVAX over the next few months.  I suspect Australia and NZ is in the former list.

Does that matter?  They were comparing those with the J&J vaccine v the placebo group.  So if there was a much higher viral load in the population, it would have affected both groups?

Canada has not been exempted by the EU and the government here has had to spend the day reassuring people that EU officials have sworn up and down that they will not block shipments to Canada. People here are pretty damn upset at the EU.

I would think that the viral load was very important. The efficacy rate is calculated by determining how many people in the vaccinated group became infected compared to the number of people in the placebo group who became infected. If you get exposed to a fuck-ton more virus, your numbers are likely to be worse. The 95% efficacy rate with the first two vaccines means they had 95% fewer infections than the placebo group. The J&J vaccine group had more infections compared to the placebo group than the other two vaccines, but since there was so much more virus out there is that really unexpected? It's also the number of infections within a certain time period, a very short time period because of the urgent need for vaccines. Everyone in the study will be followed for two years but I don't think that changes the initial efficacy rate. That's why I also mentioned that various medical personnel interviewed back in July and August were worried there wasn't enough Covid-19 virus around. 

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

After 49 days, nobody died who had been given the J&J vaccine.  That's the kind of results you would be looking for. 

No, Padraig, you are misreading the report. It says after 49 days no one was infected, which I mentioned in my post. That's why I said the key to the J&J vaccine looks like it's hunker down for 50 days after you get the vaccine if you can. Nobody who got the vaccine died, not even in South Africa. There was complete protection from severe disease and death in the vaccinated group.

Quote

Dr. Paul Stoffels, the chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson, told NPR on Friday that the topline results from the company's coronavirus vaccine study fail to tell the full story about just how effective it actually is.

Johnson & Johnson said that 28 days after vaccination, its vaccine is 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases of COVID-19. But Stoffels says that Johnson & Johnson's vaccine is very effective where it matters most: preventing hospitalizations and deaths.

"We showed that there was an 85% efficacy against severe disease and a complete protection against hospitalization and complete protection against death. And that's across all the regions, including in South Africa," he says.

A new coronavirus variant that was first discovered in South Africa has already popped up in the U.S. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine was 57% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases in that country, where the variant dominates. But it was still 89% effective in stopping severe disease, hospitalization and death in South Africa, Stoffels says.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/29/962221448/johnson-johnson-executive-says-vaccine-works-where-it-counts-preventing-deaths

[kairparavel]

This is infuriating. 

 

 

[ljkeane]

6 hours ago, kairparavel said:

This is infuriating.

That's horrendous.

It's good to hear you were at least able to watch the funeral S John.

[Filippa Eilhart]

10 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Not true. Both Australia and New Zealand are signed on to Covax, and neither is on the exempt list.

No I meant beneficiaries of Covax

specifically “Exports to any of the 92 low and middle income countries in the COVAX Advance Market Commitment list.”