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Covid-19 #24: You Scream, I Scream, We all Scream for Vaccine


Fragile Bird

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1 hour ago, Proudfeet said:

It doesn't contradict what I'm saying. Even if you're taking 5% of the 20% of Covax, you still have 300% from pharmaceutical companies. Quantity isn't the issue here. It's the timing of the deliveries. I know that Canada has only been receiving a trickle so far, but they are still at a relatively front position in the queue overall.

Frankly, right now, apart from Israel, UK and US (and possibly Chile soon), everyone else is at the queue. Having 0.01% or 2% of your population vaccinated makes no difference. The difference will come when the bulk of your vulnerable population has been vaccinated, so at 20% and over, because then ICUs, hospitals and healthcare system as a whole will be able to go back to normal. The key issue with vaccines deliveries, in my opinion, isn't who gets there first, but what happens next. If the US vaccinates 15% every month, once the vulnerable people are out of trouble, yet Canada has only access to few vaccines, hasn't vaccinated half the older people, and has only enough deliveries to get 5% a month, then this is a major issue. Same if UK basically vaccinates 70% of its people while EU is barely at 15%.

Since we're not there yet, it's too early to grumble. But if things sadly end up that way, then there will be serious backlash coming from the countries who got the short end of the stick.

Then, in an ideal world, at-risk people would be vaccinated first the world over, and when it's done in poor countries as well, then launch the global wave of vaccines. At least there are more and more vaccines being effective and being approved, so I think we really have a shot to vaccinate every willing adult on the planet at some point next year, way before 2022 is over (it's made easier because there's a huge lot of people under 18 in many countries, and eventually kids and teens' vaccination will have to be taken into account).

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think you are being unfair there. Canada has a small pharmaceutical sector, let's face it, the world leaders are European and American and they wouldn't build plants here because the market is too small. Besides that, Canada didn't have to worry it's pretty little head because, they said, the US and Europe have more than enough capacity to supply Canada. We fund a lot of research instead, and then make deals with the big companies. The Eli Lilley treatment, for example, used data provided by AbCellara in Vancouver, which received funding from the federal government along the way.

At least we learned our lesson, the government has provided funding to two vaccines, the Medicago one, now near the end of Phase 3, and the Providence Therapeutics one, which just started Phase 3. Providence is building a plant in Calgary, Medicago will manufacture in North Carolina, and the National Research Council plant in Montreal will produce Novavax vaccine by the end of the year. And a new plant will be constructed in Vancouver that will produce 240 M doses a year, but that won't open until 2023.

And don't forget, the policy of the Conservatives was to slash and burn until they got to a balanced budget so they could be re-elected. Canadians have wanted funding for health care, not vaccine plants. We had 428 deaths from H1N1, that wasn't going to move the government to build plants, but Covid has.

I totally get Canada expected to get vaccines promptly in any crisis and provided funding appropriately.  I get this was based on the cost of building infrastructure yourself against the risk that there would be something to cause a global shortage of vaccine.  If this was a flu pandemic globally we probably could provide vaccines and it would not be a problem.  Unfortunately this is covid and the wholecwprld was unprepared.  Not foreseeing something like covid means you are at the mercy of places that do make vaccine.  The whole world underestimated the ammount of vaccine needed as fast as it's needed.  I think we expected any outbreak of something would mostly stay in a limited number of countries and be effectively contained to longer, and not spread as quickly to every fucking country.

Not one person is arguing against the moral case of all nations to have equal access. But no nation government  can afford to send much vaccine to 3rd nations until their most vunrable are vaccinated. There would be riots.  Especially when things are really really bad the health system not coping (non covid treatments canceled as there are not the staff available) and and in the middle of a major lockdown with businessses and schools shut.  

Yes some papers are being nasty about Canada, those paoerscare made for an internal market.  From the UK general public COVAX is there to supply poor nations with vaccine, not rich nations like Canada.  Most people dont know the legalities of COVAX and exactly what thevagreement is.  Canadian press has been critical of us saying we are hoarding vaccine not letting others have it, this is a way of pointed out Canada looks to be taking vaccine earmarked for other nations thus doing what theybaccuse us of doing in effect.  The actual truth is not that simple.

 

 

17 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Frankly, right now, apart from Israel, UK and US (and possibly Chile soon), everyone else is at the queue. Having 0.01% or 2% of your population vaccinated makes no difference. The difference will come when the bulk of your vulnerable population has been vaccinated, so at 20% and over, because then ICUs, hospitals and healthcare system as a whole will be able to go back to normal. The key issue with vaccines deliveries, in my opinion, isn't who gets there first, but what happens next. If the US vaccinates 15% every month, once the vulnerable people are out of trouble, yet Canada has only access to few vaccines, hasn't vaccinated half the older people, and has only enough deliveries to get 5% a month, then this is a major issue. Same if UK basically vaccinates 70% of its people while EU is barely at 15%.

Since we're not there yet, it's too early to grumble. But if things sadly end up that way, then there will be serious backlash coming from the countries who got the short end of the stick.

Then, in an ideal world, at-risk people would be vaccinated first the world over, and when it's done in poor countries as well, then launch the global wave of vaccines. At least there are more and more vaccines being effective and being approved, so I think we really have a shot to vaccinate every willing adult on the planet at some point next year, way before 2022 is over (it's made easier because there's a huge lot of people under 18 in many countries, and eventually kids and teens' vaccination will have to be taken into account).

It's rare that I agree with you.  Right now we are still giving the 1st dies to our over 70s.  And things are really shit here.  Once phase 1 is done or maybe before that if we get hospitalizations at a more manageable level earlier I'm sure we will be sending a sizable quantity of vaccine out of the country.

 

Yes India is making most of the COVAX vaccines, mainly commits cheaper to make them in India than In the UK or Europe.  But we will be making vaccine for richer nations and most of it being sold at cost.  Btw the UK helped fund one of the Indian sites primaily somwhat we made here could be used first in the uk  and donating to COVAX.   

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think you are being unfair there. Canada has a small pharmaceutical sector, let's face it, the world leaders are European and American and they wouldn't build plants here because the market is too small. Besides that, Canada didn't have to worry it's pretty little head because, they said, the US and Europe have more than enough capacity to supply Canada. We fund a lot of research instead, and then make deals with the big companies. The Eli Lilley treatment, for example, used data provided by AbCellara in Vancouver, which received funding from the federal government along the way.

At least we learned our lesson, the government has provided funding to two vaccines, the Medicago one, now near the end of Phase 3, and the Providence Therapeutics one, which just started Phase 3. Providence is building a plant in Calgary, Medicago will manufacture in North Carolina, and the National Research Council plant in Montreal will produce Novavax vaccine by the end of the year. And a new plant will be constructed in Vancouver that will produce 240 M doses a year, but that won't open until 2023.

And don't forget, the policy of the Conservatives was to slash and burn until they got to a balanced budget so they could be re-elected. Canadians have wanted funding for health care, not vaccine plants. We had 428 deaths from H1N1, that wasn't going to move the government to build plants, but Covid has.

Dunno why it quoted you twice.

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5 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I totally get Canada expected to get vaccines promptly in any crisis and provided funding appropriately.  I get this was based on the cost of building infrastructure yourself against the risk that there would be something to cause a global shortage of vaccine.  If this was a flu pandemic globally we probably could provide vaccines and it would not be a problem.  Unfortunately this is covid and the wholecwprld was unprepared.  Not foreseeing something like covid means you are at the mercy of places that do make vaccine.  The whole world underestimated the ammount of vaccine needed as fast as it's needed.  I think we expected any outbreak of something would mostly stay in a limited number of countries and be effectively contained to longer, and not spread as quickly to every fucking country.

Not one person is arguing against the moral case of all nations to have equal access. But no nation government  can afford to send much vaccine to 3rd nations until their most vunrable are vaccinated. There would be riots.  Especially when things are really really bad the health system not coping (non covid treatments canceled as there are not the staff available) and and in the middle of a major lockdown with businessses and schools shut.  

Yes some papers are being nasty about Canada, those paoerscare made for an internal market.  From the UK general public COVAX is there to supply poor nations with vaccine, not rich nations like Canada.  Most people dont know the legalities of COVAX and exactly what thevagreement is.  Canadian press has been critical of us saying we are hoarding vaccine not letting others have it, this is a way of pointed out Canada looks to be taking vaccine earmarked for other nations thus doing what theybaccuse us of doing in effect.  The actual truth is not that simple.

 

 

It's rare that I agree with you.  Right now we are still giving the 1st dies to our over 70s.  And things are really shit here.  Once phase 1 is done or maybe before that if we get hospitalizations at a more manageable level earlier I'm sure we will be sending a sizable quantity of vaccine out of the country.

 

Yes India is making most of the COVAX vaccines, mainly commits cheaper to make them in India than In the UK or Europe.  But we will be making vaccine for richer nations and most of it being sold at cost.  Btw the UK helped fund one of the Indian sites primaily somwhat we made here could be used first in the uk  and donating to COVAX.   

Dunno why it quoted you twice.

Oh, I know, but it's still aggravating as hell. First there was Fareed Zakaria calling Canada a vaccine nationalist on a huge US news program, which is damn galling for all the reasons I already said, and then there's this Guardian hit job.

You know how a parliamentary system works, ours is like yours except we have more parties so we get a lot of minority governments. Right now we have a minority government that's been hammered from all sides because....wait for it....we didn't order vaccine ahead of Trump and lock up the first 70 M doses for Canadians. Because we were supposed to know which vaccine was the best one and we were supposed to know which one would be ready first and we were supposed to know that there would be supply problems and it's Trudeau's fault that Pfizer shut down it's Belgium plant for two weeks so we have no vaccine coming in. Trudeau, the opposition has been demanding, should call Biden RIGHT NOW and demand that 10 M doses get sent to Canada immediately, after all they've already got 50 M.

And, in case other people don't know this, the way a minority government works is that if you lose the support of the party that has been supporting you on votes, there's an election call. If the Liberals lose the Conservatives will win, the other parties have no chance. The Conservatives in Canada throttled the old Progressive Conservative Party from years ago from a further right-wing of a break away party called the Reform Party, based in Alberta oil country. They are very much like Donald Trump's Republican Party, when in power they cancelled all programs for women and minorities ("everyone is equal, they don't need help"), slowed refugee admissions to a trickle (allowing in Christians from the Middle East as a special case), claimed they were big supporters of the military yet never made the spending decisions they criticized the previous Liberal governements for not making, brought in voter suppression tactics etc etc etc. You get the picture. 

So if they keep hitting the Liberals with all this vaccine shit, we could have a change of government. Chats, imagine getting Trump  back not in four years but in a few months because a vote gets defeated in the Senate.

While it's easy to say, hey, think of lesser developed countries first! it doesn't work that way, the people in your country are comparing themselves to the neighbours. Our neighbours are the US, with 10% of the country vaccinated. The EU countries are comparing themselves to the UK, with 15% of the country vaccinated, not, say, Brazil. The news media here attack the government because Poland, the same size as Canada, has more people vaccinated (Poland! We're behind bloody Poland! Oh, the humiliation!)

So if you think I'm pissed off now, if we get Trump light back in power because of vaccines, then you'll really see pissed off.

Oh, one more point. A couple of years ago Trump called up Canada (not literally, I don't think) demanding we arrest a Huawei executive in Canada because Huawei was violating US law. The extradition hearings are still dragging on. Let's face it, Trump was slamming Canada with tariffs and threatening he would cancel our free trade agreement at the time, on top of running a trade war with China. A year ago we entered into an agreement with the Chinese to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, because, ya know, we were all in this together. We rushed plans to expand a federal government facility to manufacture vaccine. When things reached a point where human trials were supposed to start, China stabbed us in the back and didn't send over the vaccine. I'm sure they did that to get even with us for doing what the US asked in arresting the executive. The Chinese vaccine was supposed to be our big entry into the vaccine supply. 

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1 hour ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

 The whole world underestimated the ammount of vaccine needed as fast as it's needed.  I think we expected any outbreak of something would mostly stay in a limited number of countries and be effectively contained to longer, and not spread as quickly to every fucking country.

Since late March 2020, it was absolutely obvious that a global vaccination campaign would be necessary by 2021 - or basically as soon as vaccines would be developed and proven effective. Of course, we were sadly unprepared earlier. Most of Big Pharma had dumped vaccine development because you don't make much money with this, it's just 1/2 shots every decade and they don't cost much to boot, weak investment compared to drugs that cost hundreds per dose and that people have to take every week for years if not life. Still, more construction of factories should've happened since then.

Still, for now, finger-poiting is a bit premature, I'd say - be it between Western countries or from the rest of the world towards the West. Considering the latter, countries with very low deaths can't reasonably expect Europe or Canada, with ongoing bloodbath and not even 5% of people vaccinated - so at most a quarter of their elderly at serious risk of dying - to ship plenty of vaccines to countries with lower cases and lower deaths. Any government who did this would fall. But the easier-to-distribute vaccines should be produced and shipped to the rest of the world in huge quantities as soon as vulnerable people are protected, at this stage, the West should definitely share its production and help save vulnerable people everywhere and would deserve a lot of blame if this didn't happen. Meanwhile, there's a lot of production outside America and Europe that also should be put to that use.

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3 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Was looking at NZs vaccination strategy the other day. It's pretty defensible, and is one of the more selfless.

They only plan to take enough vaccines to harden their border quarantine system and vaccinate front line healthcare workers for the next few months. Ie enough to dramatically lower the risk of them getting an outbreak and diverting vaccine from elsewhere. In a country the size of NZ that's really not many doses in the grand scheme.

Theyre not planning to vaccinate the general population until the last half of 2021, by which point all going to plan most western countries should have their populations pretty much vaccinated. They've very much stuck themselves at the back of the queue.

Australia on the other hand is planning on starting to vaccinate the general population over the course of the next month. Though mostly with locally manufactured AZ vaccine.

I don't know how this is particularly defensible. It certainly is one of the more selfless, but only because everyone else is very selfish. Putting themselves at the back of the Westernized queue is still WAY ahead of countries that are struggling significantly more than NZ has or likely ever will. 

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22 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I ordered two silk masks for double masking.

I’m thinking that I would do the silk as the first layer, to prevent maskne, then a tie-on surgical mask over it.

Thoughts?

I have been double masking the other way - surgical mask underneath with a tight fitting cloth mask on top.  I find I get a better fit that way.  But you should experiment to see which way works best for you and gets you the best fit.

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46 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I have been double masking the other way - surgical mask underneath with a tight fitting cloth mask on top.  I find I get a better fit that way.  But you should experiment to see which way works best for you and gets you the best fit.

I've been seeing the reports that we should probably be wearing two masks now. Ugh, it was hard enough to get people to wear one. We'll be able to build a bridge to Mars with disposable masks when this is all said and done....

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49 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Since late March 2020, it was absolutely obvious that a global vaccination campaign would be necessary by 2021 - or basically as soon as vaccines would be developed and proven effective

Given supply issues, I do wonder whether the speed of approval caught the pharma companies by surprise?  Should they have more production capacity right now?  Its an impossible question, which hinges on hindsight.

Congrats to J&J.  That's big news.  Hopefully an EU application will follow over the next couple of weeks.

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1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I ordered two silk masks for double masking.

I’m thinking that I would do the silk as the first layer, to prevent maskne, then a tie-on surgical mask over it.

Thoughts?

I'll second MZ's comment, and I've see multiple doctors say put the cloth mask over the surgical one, and ideally get a cloth mask that lets you tighten it behind your ears.

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17 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

That’s because they are saving/protecting the “more valuable” mask. I’m vain and worried about maskne and have an unlimited supply of surgical masks. 

If I’m going into a situation that is potentially a lot of people (eye doctor) I wear an N95 and a surgical mask, but this is “going to the grocery store” or “picking up a croissant and hot chocolate at Alon’s”.

For me it is about fit. Actually the masks that fit me best are target kids size with the nose bridge and I can slip an insert in them, which I sometimes do instead. But my kids get dibs on those. 

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5 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Frankly, right now, apart from Israel, UK and US (and possibly Chile soon), everyone else is at the queue. Having 0.01% or 2% of your population vaccinated makes no difference. The difference will come when the bulk of your vulnerable population has been vaccinated, so at 20% and over, because then ICUs, hospitals and healthcare system as a whole will be able to go back to normal. The key issue with vaccines deliveries, in my opinion, isn't who gets there first, but what happens next. If the US vaccinates 15% every month, once the vulnerable people are out of trouble, yet Canada has only access to few vaccines, hasn't vaccinated half the older people, and has only enough deliveries to get 5% a month, then this is a major issue. Same if UK basically vaccinates 70% of its people while EU is barely at 15%.

Since we're not there yet, it's too early to grumble. But if things sadly end up that way, then there will be serious backlash coming from the countries who got the short end of the stick.

Then, in an ideal world, at-risk people would be vaccinated first the world over, and when it's done in poor countries as well, then launch the global wave of vaccines. At least there are more and more vaccines being effective and being approved, so I think we really have a shot to vaccinate every willing adult on the planet at some point next year, way before 2022 is over (it's made easier because there's a huge lot of people under 18 in many countries, and eventually kids and teens' vaccination will have to be taken into account).

?

All I'm saying is that its a bit hypocritical to attack the US and UK and then bristle at being attacked when you're seemingly taking the same position when you get your chance. Its not helped by the Guardian article blowing things out of proportion, but you can't expect people not to get upset when they take it at face value. 

I'm not making an opinion on whether the vaccination strategy is right or wrong. I'm certainly also not attacking Canada, I first entered this discussion to defend them having extra doses. I'm just asking to consider the perspective of other countries and not take everything personally.

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I bought a box of N95 masks that I vigorously researched to ensure I was getting both legitimate and approved items. Crazy expensive ($200/50) but I got them for MC as he's more out in the world. I'll double mask with Zabzie's method, though I have a few filter inserts left that came with some of the cloth masks.

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3 hours ago, KalbearAnon said:

I don't know how this is particularly defensible. It certainly is one of the more selfless, but only because everyone else is very selfish. Putting themselves at the back of the Westernized queue is still WAY ahead of countries that are struggling significantly more than NZ has or likely ever will. 

Sure. In an ideal world I agree, but that's not the world we live in. I mean millions of people die of hunger a year, but we sit around eating steak and icecream. NZ is a rich country and that they're waiting at all is kinda surprising. 

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Rich-ish. The fact of the matter is we don't have the clout to shove ourselves to the head of the rich kids queue in these situations. The actual rich kids like having us around for show, because we are, mostly, nice. The main thing that is "commendable" about the NZ govt's decision to wait our turn is that we aren't impotently stamping our feet demanding to be further up the queue. Though that isn't stopping some people of a certain attitude from doing so internally, complaining that the govt is being too slow in getting vaccine supplies in. I hope we don't have an outbreak just before the vaccine roll out starts, otherwise those tiresome voices will become louder and more prominent in the media.

 

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15 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

That article makes me feel even more cynical about humans in general.  Anglosphere + Chile and Israel hoarding vaccines when some countries likely won't be vaccinated until 2024.  From link:

 

Depends on what you mean by hoarding, but there's an argument to be made that controlling it in some areas first and spreading out from there is more efficient than making sure every geographic location has the same percentage vaccinated in lockstep.  Especially when the areas that are "hoarding", to use your term, are mostly the same areas developing treatments.

Also, I'm sure that the article you linked you is totally above board and written by someone who has a burning desire to spread the truth, but if that ever was the case in journalism, the author would likely be over 70 or so.  It's all activists these days, so I keep my filter adjusted appropriately.

12 hours ago, maarsen said:

Show me a country that has not prioritized its own citizens. Prioritizing ones own citizens is the fucking job of a country's government! 

How very MAGA of you!  Surprised tbh.  Or am I missing a level here?

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15 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

There is so much nonsense in this post I hardly know where to start.

First if all, have you even read the posts in this thread? You have people estimating how fast the UK will have it’s entire population vaccinated, about how many hundreds of thousands of people are being vaccinated every day.

The UK vaccinates more people every 2 days than Canada has vaccinated to date.

The US vaccinates more people every 20 hours, every day, than Canada has vaccinated so far. 

Which countries’ media have been leading the attacks on Canada as the world’s leading vaccine nationalist? The US and the UK. 
 

I tell you what has made me cynical about human beings. The US and the UK keeping all the vaccine they produce for their exclusive use for at least the next 4 months. 
 

You know what makes me grateful? That the EU has decent human beings who did not do the same thing. I don’t know if that’s because they didn’t think of it back in the summer, although that can’t be true because Trump made huge announcements when he did it and then tried to grab all the vaccine that was going to be produced by a German company as well, until Merkel stepped in. Maybe with hindsight they’d do it now. Maybe they will still do it now.

And did I just not say in a post that Pakistan has had fewer cases of Covid-19 than Canada does and half the deaths? Pakistan has 223 M people, Canada has 38 M. And Canada is fucking the world with immigration? Pakistan averages 12,000 immigrants to Canada a year. There are about 200,000 Pakistani immigrants in Canada. They originally got here because of Commonwealth connections. There are 1.1 M in the UK, but it’s Canada that’s fucking the world? Nigeria? There are 51k Nigerian immigrants in Canada, Nigeria had a population of 209 M, and the US blocked immigration for the last four years. There are 215k in the UK. India? There are 668 k Indian immigrants in Canada. There are 1.4 M in the UK. There are 1.38 B people in India. We’re supposed to ban immigration from India? That will be tough on a helluva a lot of Indian people bringing their families over and others who want to immigrate, they are the number 1 immigrant group to Canada. Shall we ban people of color from immigrating here? 

I think you’ve entirely misunderstood my point about immigration as I never said or implied anything about Canada ‘fucking the world over with immigration’ or said they should ban it. There isn’t a single word in my post that implies any of this. What I meant was that Canada (and the US, UK and other Western countries) do have people from these countries (India, Pakistan, Nigeria etc.) migrating there, and a lack of vaccines in said countries may affect this negatively I.e. make it difficult to migrate I.e. ‘fuck the world over.’ I would’ve thought this was pretty damned obvious in my earlier post, but I guess not.

Also I am a person of colour - kindly keep that in mind before lecturing me with fake claims that I think people of colour should be ‘banned’ from anywhere. 
 

As for the vaccine supply, fair points about the US and UK.

 

Just to say though: I linked to an article that said Canada and New Zealand had orders in the programme that is meant to help poor countries get the vaccine. That is a fact. Out of the 350 million orders Canada has there, half will go to their own citizens - I felt that was unfair given that they already have direct deals with pharma companies. Others have shared more detail since that may have more nuance - I will definitely read those sources to get a better picture. At the time, I was going off what I read in the article I linked. 

You are free to disagree, sure. But kindly don’t misrepresent what I said. 

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13 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Frankly, right now, apart from Israel, UK and US (and possibly Chile soon), everyone else is at the queue.

Chile is vaccinating a huge chunk of the population thanks to vaccines from China. Uruguay is planning the same. Millions have been vaccinated in Brazil with Sinovac. Argentina and Bolivia are doing something similar thanks to the Russians albeit the speed is somewhat slower.

The few and far in between Pfizer doses are a drop in the ocean. Covax still promises millions of doses (mostly AZ) but nobody really is counting with them.

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3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Covax still promises millions of doses (mostly AZ) but nobody really is counting with them.

Nobody in South America you mean?

That seems a little unfair.  Look at this listing.  Argentina 2m, Chile 1m, Brazil 11m vaccines over the first half of the year?  Or do you mean that nobody is counting on them to populate most of their population?  That is fair enough.  It isn't set up to populate total populations.  Its initial focus is to try to get 20% populated (i.e. the most vulnerable). Although this first step brings it to 3%.

I  did read about Chile's plans but right now the number of vaccination in those countries are very low.  See here.  Chile is hoping to turn its figure into 5m by the end of March (4m Sinovac, 1m COVAX presumably).  That will be over 25%, which is impressive.

I do think COVAX is important to get the most vulnerable treated and to keep the focus on the vulnerable.  I suppose there is an argument that those countries that have arranged their own orders should not be entitled to any but that might just encourage countries to hide their orders.  Adds more complexity etc.

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