Why was janos slynt a top contender for lord commander

[Bernie Mac]

3 hours ago, Walda said:

I think the personal recommendation of Tywin won Slynt the personal attention of Bowen Marsh. He is one of the very few men of the watch who respects the power of Tywin Lannister.

If we look at the men who shared the Lord Commander's table with Tyrion, it is easy to see why:- Alliser Thorne, Jaremy Rykkr, sent to the Wall by Tywin Lannister for fighting valiantly, loyally, for the king Tywin betrayed. Maester Aemon, the last Targaryen, his house ruined by death, disgrace, and desolation at the hand of Tywin Lannister. 

Jeor Mormont is of the North, as commanders of the watch historically tended to be. His quarrel, if he has one, is with Eddard Stark. He buried it well enough to groom Eddard's son for Lord Commander, and to give Tywin's son hearty hospitality and pleas to be remembered in King's Landing. 

There are other men in the leadership of the Watch:- Othell Yarwyck, whose prejudices are about deep foundations and wide embrasures rather than families or gods new and old. Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke, whose family enmities and personalities are more against each other than the great lords of Stark and Lannister, or the green land's kings new and old.

Tywin is too arrogant to realize that the watch, full of baseborn churls and traitors as it is, is not a place full of men who will bow to him instinctively, serve him without question, see the value of cultivating his alliance. Bowen Marsh is practically the only officer of the Night's Watch that is ready to, but happily he is also the officer that reads and responds to Tywin's correspondence.

It seems to me too, that this rapprochement between Bowen Marsh and Lord Tywin came about after Lord Commander Mormont marched out on the Great Ranging. I might be paranoid, but the "slain, with all his strength" letter seems a bit premature. Perhaps, if Bowen Marsh had been in command, there would have been no hopes held for Benjen Stark or Waymar Royce (tbh even Jeor Mormont does not hold out much hope of seeing Waymar again) but in his place I would wait as many days from the return of the messageless crows as it took the men to arrive at the Fist, before deciding that "all his strength" had perished.

Perhaps the mutiny at Craster's Keep was not as spontaneous and food-based as we are led to believe. Maybe Karl, Ollo, Dirk, Oss, and either Garth of Oldtown or Garth Greenaway were using food to rally men to their cause, and had intended to ensure Mormont and all who were loyal to him were slain before they ever left Castle Black.

Maybe Bowen Marsh would have let them live at Craster's Keep undisturbed, as Chett had dreamt of doing, if Lord Commander Mormont never returned. Marsh would only have to make the deal with one, none of the others need know he was complicit. He might not even have had to make a deal. Hearing whispers of the plan in the wormways while the men tallied their secret larders might be enough. Or maybe I am seeing what isn't there, and Marsh wrote to the five kings at Aemon's suggestion, as it takes time to bring levies to Castle Black, and it takes about as much time for a victorious wildling host to march from the Fist of First Men to Castle Black as it does for the remnant of their own force to return. As Sweet Donnel and Ulmer were among those who returned, I am not sure that all the mutineers stayed behind.

Then, there were Chett's mutineers too. Yes, they failed, but Dirk and Ollo were part of that plot and Chett can't have been the only one to have thought "If none of them ever returns to the Wall, no one will ever come looking for us, they’ll think we died with the rest."

Unlike Chett, whoever had that thought after the Fist of First Men would not have the risk of killing Wythers and Locke to ensure Smallwood got command. 

It is possible someone even smarter than Chett might have worked out that the wildlings were massing in huge numbers, and whatever amount of rangers you sent out after them, there was a good chance they would not come back, if they ventured far enough from the wall.

The Others seem to have a very human quality in Chett's capter. They are lurking, spying, listening in on their plans. Also, they have goaded the Lord Commander out from Castle Black, by taking a ranging party here, a wildling villiage there. Dragging the corpses of Rykkr and Flowers to the Godswood. The Others have at least six of Chett's fourteen, and they are about to visit the mutineers of Craster's keep when Sam leaves. 

It seems at odds with Marsh's personality that he would lead forces into battle down to the Bridge of Skulls, with Ser Wynton Stout in command at Castle Black. Mance knew he would take the bait - clearly Mance knows more of Bowen Marsh than I do. I can only assume he knew the command of Castle Black would devolve on Maester Aemon and Donyl Noye, and that, by chosing his deputy by rank rather than ability he was providing justification for an experienced commander with Tywin's patronage and a Lordship to take over for Ser Wynton before he returned for the choosing.

I do wonder if there was something else that riled him up - he seems a stolid character, ideally suited to being castallen, preserving and inventorizing assets, staying put. I would have thought it would take more than Mance's feints and Tywin's letter to gee up Bowen Marsh to the point he ventured out to fight wildlings. Maester Aemon and Donal Noye both might have seen through Mance's feint, but if either warned Marsh, they did not dissuade him.

His willingness to pander to the Lannisters is never explained. Aemon understands the politics of the realm and Mormont the politics of the watch well enough to take a kindly personal interest in the son of Tywin Lannister, but we have not learned why Bowen Marsh was on hand to fill Tyrion's glass. 

Alliser Thorne seems more the type to take the opportunity to lead a host in combat, but I don't know that Alliser Thorne would have done, if he were in Marsh's place. His military experience was not about leaving the walls of King's Landing to defend the swampy delta of the Trident. He would not clear the way for Lord Tywin to take command, so why would he make way for Lord Tywin's lowly frog? Alliser would see through Mance's tactics - he would not leave Castle Black undefended on such slight provocations, however numerous. But at the time he was still on his way back from King's Landing, or at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea after his humiliating audience with Tyrion.

Thorne arrived at Castle Black at the same time as Lord Slynt. Jon Snow assumes they are responding to the raven Maester Aemon and Donal Noye sent in ASoS Ch 48 Jon VI. But I think, all in all, Cotter Pyke has given Ser Alliser and Lord Slynt his van, as he set off to fight the wildlings raiding between Eastwatch and Castle Black, knowing there was a choosing in the offing and the Watch needed a fighter. Perhaps Bowen Marsh was thinking along the same lines, hoping to win some support for his heroic efforts from the Shadowtower men.

It is clear, from Ser Wynton Stout "asleep in the window seat" of the Lord Commander's solar in ASoS Ch 69 Jon IX, that Slynt has taken the rule of Castle Black under his aegis, just as Jon himself had in ASoS Ch 64 Jon VIII where Maester Aemon, insisting his own role was only to advise,  advised that Donal, who had been deputised by Stout at Aemon's recommendation, had deputised Jon before he died and there was no-one else to command Castle Black.

When the men of Eastwatch arrived, Stout no doubt acceded to Ser Alliser's request that Lord Slynt should take operational command as the highest ranked person there, possibly also per Bowen Marsh's written directive. 

Lord Slynt's first order of business is to call for Jon Snow, which makes sense to Aemon as Jon Snow has had operational command and knows the current dispositions of the enemy and Castle Black. Aemon was not to know that Lord Slynt had already been primed by Ser Alliser to court martial Jon Snow.

We can tell Ser Alliser is behind this firstly by the way he greets Jon as "the turncloak" and then by the way Slynt defends him and his courtesies against the "traitor's bastard" and allows Ser Alliser to question the "prisoner". We can also see it in the charges. Ser Glendon brings in Rattleshirt, who witnessed Jon murder his commanding officer. Yet Jon is not being charged with murder or mutiny but for oath-breaking, cowardice and desertion. Alliser wants to be sure Jon Snow dies as a snivelling outcast, and isn't remembered as a warrior mighty enough to slay the legendary half-hand, or a rebel, or any such grand charge.

Slynt of course wants to be known as the man that killed the dangerous traitor Ned Stark, but was betrayed by the imp of Lannister. Either would be enough to endear him to Alliser. That, and his still burning ambition (note how he clings to his title) combined with his stupidity, make him the perfect vehicle for Alliser's malice. He babbles a bit when Jon states Eddard was murdered.

Ser Alliser also blabs a bit when Jon tells Slynt "I don't know what your head is stuffed with". He equates the killing of Qohrin with the killing of Mormont at Craster's keep, and accuses Benjen Stark of getting in Mances ear and orchestrating both, which sounds not a little unhinged. It makes me think a few unhinged speculations of my own. Like Alliser's animus against Jon Snow is due to Alliser's involvement in a plot with Bowen Marsh to overthrow Jeor Mormont and Benjen Stark and have Southerners take the watch. Like Bowen Marsh intended to sacrifice Castle Black to a wildling attack, and Slynt and Thorne had been racing down to take stock, and take credit for salvaging and commanding whatever part of the Watch had not been destroyed, and perhaps hoping to assassinate Mance there before Stannis and his forces ousted the wildling rabble for them.

Aemon puts a stop to their nonsense with a letter to Cotter Pyke. While Pyke can't read, both Slynt and Thorne know he is with Stannis, who can read. Odd that neither of them mentioned the imminent arrival of the King to anyone. That they sent Jon out to kill Mance just before Stannis arrived, and didn't mention a word about all the kings heavy horse and all the king's men until he was literally at the gate. I notice that Bowen Marsh and Septon Celladar are among the few that still suspect Jon. 

When the choosing begins, Thorne puts his own name forward, but by the third day he has withdrawn from the running and put his influence, such as it is, entirely towards Slynt.

As soon as Jon hears there is a choosing in the offing he realises it will come down to Ser Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke.

The other two contenders he briefly considers are old, cautious Ser Ottyn Wythers, in the rearguard and second in command to Lord Commander Mormont, and bold persuasive Thoren Smallwood in the vanguard commanding the scouts. Then he remembers both died on the Fist of First Men.

Ser Ottyn had seniority, and was not senile like Ser Wynton. Smallwood hated wildlings and showed some military skill, although he was not courteous and the half-hand called him a fool.

They both seem to me to be at best a poor man's stalking-horse for Mallister and Pyke. I'm wondering why they flitted across Jon's brain for even that fleeting second. Tyrion in King's Landing saw straight away that Mallister and Pyke were the only real contenders. Neither Jon or Tyrion considered Thorne a goer at all. 

However, he was ambitious enough to put his name in at the chosing, coming sixth after Slynt, Marsh, Yarwyck, Mallister, and Pyke. A weak sixth, in a field of thirty, and weaker rather than stronger after others withdrew. Still he had no inclination to resume his post as master-of-arms, not even when Jon Snow took the duty on himself.

Slynt was fifth in the first choosing - a very strong start for such a new brother. I suppose the five that came with him from King's Landing might think it worth their while to promote him, but he would need more than these - there are 589 voters, and the winner needed at least 393 votes. 

Slynt's ever increasing vote count still mystifies me. Once he had the support of Bowen Marsh, and through him, Othell Yarwyck, the increase makes some sense, but while these two were still in the running? .

Unlike King's Landing, Slynt could not promise promotion, and I am not sure the men of the Night's Watch earn a salary (although, how else could they pay for the buried treasure of moletown?) He might have Lord Tywin's favour, but Tywin is far away. Lord Baelish and the crown coffers likewise. On the stick side of the equation, he has only five men who killed for him in his glory days, and it is doubtful they would feel obliged to continue, as their loyalty led them to the Wall with him. The Wall is not King's Landing, where goldcloaks can kill where they like. Slynt is surrounded by King's men and Queen's men and brothers of the watch, all armed and battle-hardened, unlike the weavers of the Street of Looms and the denizens of Fleabottom. Slynt has no easy targets, no trusty henchmen, and nothing to gain from killing voters. So he has to use his charms, such as they are.

So, the six votes he started with then the five or four that Alliser garnered (we know that Alliser becomes a promoter of Slynt's interest - although not that his supporters would all transfer to Slynt. I would love to know who voted for Alliser, even more than who voted for three-finger Hobb). Assuming all 49 of Bowen Marsh's men gave Slynt their vote too (unlikely as that may be) there are still the thirty Slynt managed to take from Mallister and Pyke.

How? Their commanders loathe him, King Stannis loathes him. That he could get thirty voters to change their vote to him, is impressive.The only notion I have is that all the twenty-three that put their names forward in the first count but then withdrew, and all the seven supporters they shared amongst them, had bitterly preferred Slynt to anyone that they thought stood a chance of winning, anyone they actually knew. Which seems unlikely.

Even as the compromise candidate, even as the dark horse that nobody knew well enough to outright loathe, Slynt's success in the polls shows us that Sam is not the only influence peddler working behind the scenes.

TL;DR Slynt needed more support than the Lannisters could give him to be the contender he was.

I really think you are overcomplicating a pretty straightforward matter. Slynt was qualified to do the job, the majority of Watchmen would likely prefer someone who was qualified to do the job over someone who was not.

Slynt rose from a butcher's son to Gold Cloak, to a Captain of the Gold Cloaks to Lord Commander of the Gold Cloaks. That is going to impress a lot of people, especially the many commoners amongst the Nights Watch who could only dream of such advancement.

The majority of the Watchmen can't read, but even if they could, they don't have a copy of ASOIAF to tell them what to think of Slynt. They don't share the biased opinion Jon has towards him.

[Walda]

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

you are overcomplicating a pretty straightforward matter. Slynt was qualified to do the job,

The question was not entirely straightforward - for a start, it can be split into two questions

1/ How did Janos Slynt get command of Castle Black from the second he set foot in the place?

2/How did Janos Slynt get 74 votes for Lord Commander when he has been in the watch only a very few months, and known of by the men of the Shadow Tower and Castle Black for mere days?

We have read of Slynt's rise from butcher to captain to commander of the watch and lord of Harrenhal. The men of the Night's watch have only what they can see and what they are told, by Slynt and by other people in hearing distance. Slynt is big on mentioning that he is a lord, and doesn't mind people knowing he commanded the city watch and has powerful friends near the Iron Throne. He is not so fond of revealing that he worked his way up from captain, much less that he served an apprenticeship and became a butcher before joining the Goldcloaks as a common watchman. In fact, he never shares that aspirational narrative with anyone, impressive as it is. 

Of course, his accent and manners make it obvious he has not been born and bred a lordling, but they don't make it obvious that he is an experienced and competent commander.

The five men that arrived with him from King's Landing are the first lot from King's Landing to arrive at the Wall for a long time (Yoren's lot being rolled in the Riverlands). I suppose there is a stray chance that a man on the wall might remember being roughed up after being nicked by Captain Slynt, or perhaps remember how much easier his life of crime became when the watch could be bought off, but these are not necessarily recollections that would make Slynt his preferred commander. 

The ex-goldcloaks are really the only ones that can speak with authority on Slynt's qualifications as a commander. They are all loyal to him, at least as far as initially voting for him equates to loyalty. 

Which is good for him, as far as it goes. But it doesn't change the fact that most of the black brothers don't really know the ex-goldcloaks, any more than they know Slynt.

The fact that they arrive as a group rather than as individuals means it takes longer for the men at Eastwatch to get to know them. There is an 'us and them' vibe from the start, and they have each other so they don't have to spend all their time getting to know the tales of all the Eastwatch men they train with, or learn which one snores so loudly. And vice versa.

Even if it was clear the ex-goldcloaks loved their former Lord Commander, the men of Eastwatch might just see a bunch of newbies that knew nothing about life on the Wall, nothing about the North, and thought their commander was all that because he was m'lord. This might work to make Cotter Pyke's base firmer, might go so way to explaining why he had two and a half times more votes than Slynt when Slynt's vote peaked.

Being qualified to do the job is only one reason for voting. As Three-finger Hobb's faithful voters demonstrate, it is not the only factor. A significant factor is that it is not one man one vote. Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke cast votes for all the men that have not come to Castle Black in person. They each cast nearly one third of the vote by proxy.

Sam saw this and realized Jon only had to get the votes of those two men to become Lord Commander. Marsh and Thorne saw this and knew they needed all of Cotter Pyke's votes to just scrape through. That was why they were so anxiously persuading Yarwyk to support Janos in ASoS Ch 79 Jon XII. Alliser and Bowen saw that if Othell bid his supporters to vote for Slynt and they did, Slynt and Pyke would have a scant third each, and Cotter Pyke would realise, as the brothers cast vote after vote into the night, that it was going to be either m'lud Slynt or Ser Denys bloody Mallister, and every time he didn't take on the mantle of kingmaker by voting for Slynt was an opportunity for Ser Denys to claim the merit for even that, because Slynt wasn't going anywhere because his voters were not proxies in his back pocket, but men present in the room, casting their own tokens to the best of their own judgement.

ASoS Ch 79 also does a synopsis of what the men are being told.

Janos Slynt has been conducting a negative campaign. It is presented to us as being primarily against Jon Snow, starting before Snow was a candidate, with him attempting to hang him, and continuing after

Quote

“Look! The beast that tore the life from Halfhand. A warg walks among us, brothers. A WARG! This … this creature is not fit to lead us! This beastling is not fit to live!”

(ASoS Ch 79 Jon XII)

Admittedly, this is from Jon's biased perspective. But he did not imagine Slynt's court-martial, and none of his bothers had called him beastling before Slynt came to Castle Black. Well, Ebben muttered something about wargs, but it was unclear if he was referring to Orell's eagle or Jon's dream. And Ebben never had the opportunity to clarify his opinions or share them with his brothers.

Rattleshirt knew Jon for a warg the minute the met-it is the first thing he says to Jon. Clearly, also, one of the first things he says to Slynt's men about Jon. When Slynt was Lord Commander in King's Landing, the stories the Freys told of Robb at the battle of Oxcross were related by Ser Lancel to Lady Sansa in front of the king in ACoK Ch 32 Sansa III, and the Stark Warg Army became known of upstairs and downstairs in Harrenhal as well (ACoK Ch 30 Arya VII). 

Slynt has conflated Rattleshirt's story with the stories of Robb the warg king for the same reason the Freys did - to stir up loyalist sentiment against an inhuman Northern foe.

He is appealing to men that worship the New Gods and hate the wildlings. Nevermind that he has never actually seen Ghost, until that moment. And "Tore the life from Halfhand" is a direct appeal to the men of the Shadowtower, men who actually knew Qohrin by name.

Yarwyk is strongly influenced by Stannis bringing in his army and saving the Wall. This feeling works against Slynt precisely because Slynt is pushing a King's Landing Narrative and is claiming Lord Tywin's preference, and was all Lord Tywin sent the Watch in its hour of need.

Othell's trusty friends can explain that Lord Lannister will win the war and he won't want to be a friend of Stannis then. They can read him the letter of commendation if they like, it doesn't change the fact that Stannis saved the Night's Watch last week, and his men are at every exit of the hall they are voting in.

Cotter Pyke has another illiterate, hearsay-only perspective

Quote

Might be you had those gold cloaks trained to lick your bloody arse, but you’re wearing a black cloak now.

(ASoS Ch 79 Jon XII)

Now m'lud Janos Slynt wants to change the way we choose our Commander, boys. Saying that Ed Tollet has no right. Who the hell is this m'lud bossing us around in his Southron way - you're in the Night's Watch now, bucko, and we don't answer to any liege lord.

That argument is bound to sway men who have served winters in the watch, and hadn't heard of this self-important upjumped unproven stranger the week before last.

The men of the watch learn little of what happens South of the wall, in the places they will never see again. The brothers they live with, train with, fight beside, have more relevance than the King on the Iron Throne.

They vote for the man they know.That is why Three-finger Hobb has his five loyal voters.(My guess is these include Mully, Owen, Dannel, Kegs, Horse and possibly Dolorus Edd, as they seem to be food-focused chums). Knowing the man is also why Edd Tollet puts Jon Snow's name forward. He knows the second vote for him was Jon's, and he is giving Jon a taste of his own medicine.

Knowing the man plays against Janos, but works for Jon. While Janos has been garnering votes, Jon has spent most of his time in the training yard, taking on all comers. All action, no talk. I'm guessing that Iron Emmet drew his steel in the supper-hall in an attempt to cut down Slynt's  accusations against Jon.

Janos might think his lordship in the Riverlands helps him. I doubt it. They know that a man must renounce all lands when he takes the black, and all alliances. Insisting on his courtesies shows Cotter Pyke that he doesn't know how things work in the watch, and shows Denys Mallister he is a graceless illbred fool.

Of course, the watch isn't really egalitarian, but they bow to the lords they know. Before Stannis came in person, Owen was dreaming of King Robert coming to save them. Robert is the king most of them agree on, and until Stannis came in person, the many Southron kings were nothing to them. 

The men of the Night's Watch know and respect Lord Eddard. He has never forgotten the watch, and his own brother was Head Ranger and no-ones blood ran blacker.  Even the Wildlings have heard of the Starks of Winterfell, friends of the watch since time immemorial.

Most of them would also have heard of Harrenhal, if not of House Slynt. It might remind them of scary tales of Black Harren and vampire bats, but it means nothing to the watch except that this Lord Slynt is ill-favoured. But his presence at the Wall would have told them as much.

They know that the Starks understand winter like they do, and the watch like they do. The men of the Night's Watch know the North, and take pride in that knowledge. They don't shriek like a greenlands boy at the sight of a direwolf. They know there's a lot more North of the Wall than the Southron lordlings know. They have seen dead men walking. Boasting of killing Ned Stark and associating the North that lies south of the wall with evil sorceries, is of course going to alienate all the brothers who were recruited from above the neck, and will sound like pure Southron ignorance to any man who has spent a winter on the Wall. Slynt is only showing he doesn't understand their lives and their ways.

When Jon was recruited, he and Sam were the only brothers to swear their oaths before the heart tree, and many of the men of the watch come from the South (especially around Oldtown and the Sisters) but the recruits of Castle Black know Ghost better than they know Slynt and co. Among them there are several who think both the boy and the wolf are surly brutes they could live without, but they are not likely to have noticed Jon had sorcerous powers. If Bowen and Alliser had not championed Slynt, he would have had no hope of engaging the men of Castle Black, most of whom were under Jon Snow's command in battle the week before last. The men of the Shadowtower who fought at the Fist are unlikely to come around to the idea that the real enemy was the Old Bear's squire.

Slynt is gaining two votes from the Eastwatch men for every one he gains from the Shadowtower simply because the men in the Shadow Tower know Mormont's steward better than they know Tywin's Lord Commander. The opposite is true for most of the Eastwatch men (but even there, Dareon knows Jon Snow, and Slynt had not met Jon Snow when he was at Eastwatch.)

The rule that a man's crimes and debts and alliegences are left behind him when he joins the watch might not be true in fact, but it is keenly felt and held as sacred by the brothers of the Night's Watch. Janos gains nothing from boasting to these men that he killed Eddard Stark, and was made Lord of Harrenhal for it. They know that Lord Lannister didn't grant him the boon of coming to the Wall with his honour guard at his own free will and behest.

Cotter Pyke has learnt that he never even saw Harrenhal. While all the brothers would feel some sympathy for being betrayed by a fickle lord who called that justice, none of them are likely to warm to Slynt insisting on the title associated with the lands he foreswore when he took his vows.

None of these are Jon Snow's biases. The simple fact of the matter is that the only men who have had any opportunity to gauge Slynt's competence as a commander are his ex-goldcloaks and the men in Cotter Pyke's vanguard, who were with him when they took Rattleshirt at Long Barrow. Beyond that, they only know what their brothers tell them, and they have their own distinctly Northern bias, because that is their world.

Lord Janos's reaction to the raven in the kettle was interesting. Whatever his sins, killing Jeor Mormont wasn't one of them. Perhaps he really did believe that Jon Snow was a sorcerer. Or superstitiously believed that the raven had decided the vote, rather than Cotter Pyke and Ser Denys.

TL;DR It was the biases of Cotter Pyke and Ser Denys Mallister that cost Slynt the command. That is a matter of arithmetic, not opinion.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Janos Slynt had only one weakness.  He had not spent enough time at the wall to have a good understanding of the wildlings and the white walkers.  But there were people at the wall who did.  A leader does not have to know everything as long they have somebody on the staff who do. 

[BalerionTheCat]

There was no strong candidate. Denys and Cotter were excluding each other. Not many really knew Janos, except he was commander of the Gold Coaks.
He was supported by Alliser. Not someone liked, but respected for his experience and toughness.
And Alliser was backing him only because of the Lannisters.

[CamiloRP]

4 hours ago, Walda said:

Lord Janos's reaction to the raven in the kettle was interesting. Whatever his sins, killing Jeor Mormont wasn't one of them. Perhaps he really did believe that Jon Snow was a sorcerer. Or superstitiously believed that the raven had decided the vote, rather than Cotter Pyke and Ser Denys.

TL;DR It was the biases of Cotter Pyke and Ser Denys Mallister that cost Slynt the command. That is a matter of arithmetic, not opinion.

Maybe it didn't decide the vote but it was important, we don't know anything regarding that raven, who pu it there? was it skinchanged? I think it has a telepathic effect on the voters.