I know it's a tired topic, but tell me why A + N != J and R + L != A

[lehutin]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

I never said that Jon was legitimate, but still. inheritance is complicated, and some people could definitely believe he comes before any of Ned's children.

Which people? In ASOS, Catelyn says that as a bastard, Jon can't inherit Winterfell. Robb doesn't dispute that; instead, he argues that a legitimized Jon can inherit.

 

If Jon's parents aren't R+L and he's just a bastard, there's really no reason for Ned to lie about Jon's parentage or keep it a secret. AFAIK, this is why most alternative theories fell by the wayside long ago, and why fans who try to resurrect them insist on there being some sort of secret B+A or N+A marriage.

[Ran]

Folks, keep it civil.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It also starts to beg the question why didn't Ned try to legitimize Jon.  Especially when Ned's best friend was one who could legally erase the taint of being a bastard on Jon.  Jon might start to wonder if Ned failed to do this because it might put Jon ahead of Ned's children in the line of succession. 

It's not expected for a bastard to be legitimized if there isn't a reason for it. And nobody would ever expect Ned to try to have his older brother's bastard legitimized and him not doing this wouldn't reflect poorly on him at all.

 

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And there is really only one parentage possibility which would fit the bill (no matter how distasteful) and perhaps explain why Jon's dreams keep pulling him to the Winterfell crypts.

Beyond shock value, what's the point of Jon being the son of Brandon and Lyanna? What textual evidence is there for the two of them having an incestuous relationship? And how does the timeline work? If Jon was Brandon's son by anybody, he'd be way older than Ned claims he is. 

[Frey family reunion]

44 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

It's not expected for a bastard to be legitimized if there isn't a reason for it. And nobody would ever expect Ned to try to have his older brother's bastard legitimized and him not doing this wouldn't reflect poorly on him at all.

 

Beyond shock value, what's the point of Jon being the son of Brandon and Lyanna? What textual evidence is there for the two of them having an incestuous relationship? And how does the timeline work? If Jon was Brandon's son by anybody, he'd be way older than Ned claims he is. 

The reason one would legitimize a bastard is to give him certain inheritance rights.  Presumably he would be last in line after the heir’s “legally” born children.  But in the situation where all the legally born children are deceased a legitimized bastard can inherit and even take over as lord of the House.  We see Varys bring up this possibility when talking a bout House Darry.  All of Lord Darry’s heirs are killed (except his daughter who married into other House Frey).  Varys brings up the existence of an acknowledged bastard of House Darry.  Presumably Varys brings him up as a possible heir to the House.  I assume that this unknown Bastard of Darry would have to be legitimized first.

ETA: Now if Jon was Brandon’s son, and Eddard had legitimized him, I do think that would have caused a succession crisis when Eddard died.  Especially since Jon already harbored resentment that he was told he could never be the Lord of Winterfell because he was bastard born.

As for your second question, it kind of depends on the nature of magic and magical bloodlines in the story.  I do wonder if they may create a compulsion towards similarly situated individuals.  

Take the Targaryens for instance, how did their custom of marrying brother to sister start?  Their stated reason was to keep their bloodlines pure.  But how did they first come to believe this?  Did their apparently inheritable abilities to ride, bond and possibly even hatch dragons lead to a compulsion which created their incestuous practices?  

Now turn to Jaime and Cersei.  Is there a reason that they feel such a compulsion to each other?  Perhaps beyond simply their mutual vanity?  Is there some type of genetic factors working to encourage their mutual attraction.

Then we have the wargs.  Varamyr indicated that Wargs can almost sense the presence of other Wargs.  Varamyr indicated that there are often gatherings of wargs.  Some posters here have theorized that these gatherings may in actuality be um instances where wargs get together in more ways than one.  In other words, do wargs seek out other wargs to procreate?

My thought is, if indeed Brandon and Lyanna committed this taboo, the reason would lie in what Eddard obliquely calls their “wolf blood”.  My thought is Brandon and Lyanna may either both carry a recessive gene for skin changing or may in fact be skinchangers who’s talents remained repressed.  But it’s possible that their bloodlines may have also caused them to have a compulsion for each other.  Possibly the same situation that Jaime and Cersei find themselves in.

As for the timeline, I do think Jon is older then we think he is.  But if you read carefully, Ned never really discloses when Jon was supposedly conceived.  The assumption is when he told Robert that he dishonored himself and Cat in the sight of gods and men, while Cat was pregnant with Robb that he is referring to a fictional affair with Jon’s mother.  I’m not so sure that is what Ned is really referring to.  

I think Ned is being very honest with Robert that he feels that he dishonored Cat while she was pregnant with Robb.  But since we have a strong reason to believe that Ned never in fact conceived, Jon, I think Ned is talking of a different dishonor.  I think Ned is referring to the false affirmation he made regarding Jon.  Which if he did this while Cat was still pregnant with Robb, indicates Jon is indeed older than Robb.

I’ll leave it with this quote from Jaime:

Quote

“Brandon was different from his brother, wasn’t he?  He had blood in his veins instead of cold water.  More like me.”

”Brandon was nothing like you.”

”If you say so.”

 

[Egged]

6 hours ago, lehutin said:

GRRM is on record as saying that 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Interview_in_Barcelona/

 

Even if we exclude this word of God, suppose that B+?=trueborn J. An inevitable implication is that Ned Stark is actually a POS scumbag uncle who scammed his nephew out of his rightful inheritance of Winterfell. And for what? "Expectations subverted"?

 

B+?=bastard J has no claim to Winterfell, and there's also no reason for Ned to lie about Jon's parents in that scenario either.

That's if Ned knows Jon is Brandon's son. If the baby Lyanna is holding is actually a bastard from Brandon + Ashara, he wouldn't necessarily know.

That being said, I kind of like the idea that Ned hands over Aegon to Ashara/the Daynes, and Ashara hands him her and Bradon's son.

 

[lehutin]

5 minutes ago, Egged said:

That's if Ned knows Jon is Brandon's son. If the baby Lyanna is holding is actually a bastard from Brandon, he wouldn't know better.

So just to be clear, your original title question was about why N+A != J. Are you now advocating B+A=J?

[Egged]

2 minutes ago, lehutin said:

So just to be clear, your original title question was about why N+A != J. Are you now advocating B+A=J?

As others pointed out regarding the timeline (which I think is a good argument, it would be difficult to fit if not impossible), I think it makes more sense in terms of timeline to have B + A = J yes.

I especially like the implications Council Member brought.

BTW the title is "tell me why it doesn't make sense". I like discussions

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

36 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The reason one would legitimize a bastard is to give him certain inheritance rights.  Presumably he would be last in line after the heir’s “legally” born children.  But in the situation where all the legally born children are deceased a legitimized bastard can inherit and even take over as lord of the House.  We see Varys bring up this possibility when talking a bout House Darry.  All of Lord Darry’s heirs are killed (except his daughter who married into other House Frey).  Varys brings up the existence of an acknowledged bastard of House Darry.  Presumably Varys brings him up as a possible heir to the House.  I assume that this unknown Bastard of Darry would have to be legitimized first.

Yes, and there was no reason why Ned would be expected to do this for Jon, and especially not if Jon was Brandon's son.

37 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for your second question, it kind of depends on the nature of magic and magical bloodlines in the story.  I do wonder if they may create a compulsion towards similarly situated individuals.  

This gets at what I was implying about the lack of textual support for the theory. Speculation that the Targs have a magical attraction to siblings (I'm not entirely sure about that, but I can at least see why someone might think that), and then further speculation that the same also applies to the Starks (no basis for this), and then concluding that this means Brandon and Lyanna had an incestuous relationship and are Jon's parents (major leap). There's no direct textual evidence or anything really hinting at this.

39 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for the timeline, I do think Jon is older then we think he is.

That begs several questions. Starting with, if Brandon is Jon's father, then was at the very least born several months before Ned showed up at the ToJ. Is the theory that Lyanna happened to die several months after childbirth just as Ned showed up? 

42 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But if you read carefully, Ned never really discloses when Jon was supposedly conceived

Even if the theory that when Robert asks Ned about his bastard's mother (who Ned says is Wylla) that Ned's response about dishonor is actually referring to something other than cheating on Catelyn is true, that's clearly not the way Robert takes it. So whatever is in Ned's head isn't really relevant. Catelyn also believes that Ned cheated on her. And Jon has a birthday he celebrates, which presumably other people know about. The next question that prompts is this - if Jon is quite a bit older than what Ned claims, what's the point of lying about it? If he tries to pass off Jon as being younger than Robb despite being several months older, does he expect nobody to notice? It's not like giving Jon's real age is going to tip anyone off that he must be the son of Brandon and Lyanna. It serves no purpose as far as I can tell, unnecessarily harms Ned's relationship with his wife, his reputation, and raises the potential to arouse suspicion if anyone notices he's clearly lying about the boy's age for no apparent reason. 

46 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Which if he did this while Cat was still pregnant with Robb, indicates Jon is indeed older than Robb.

Setting aside everything I mentioned above, in AGOT Catelyn specifically recalls that when Robb was born, the war was still going on and she was uncertain if Ned would ever see his son. While this theoretically could maybe fall in a narrow window after Ned's fight at the ToJ and before Catelyn heard about Ned survival, this seems unlikely, and the more likely conclusion is that Robb was born by the time the ToJ fight happens.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

17 minutes ago, Egged said:

As others pointed out regarding the timeline (which I think is a good argument, it would be difficult to fit if not impossible), I think it makes more sense in terms of timeline to have B + A = J yes.

How does the timeline of B + A = J work either? When does Brandon get her pregnant? I don't see any way around this theory requiring that Lyanna and Ned are somehow fooled by a newborn infant being replaced by a baby that's at least several months old. That's a lot less believable than Jon being Rhaegar's son and having Stark features, especially considering that this theory relies on them being tricked into thinking a Stark/Dayne baby is a Targaryen.

[Egged]

13 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

How does the timeline of B + A = J work either? When does Brandon get her pregnant? I don't see any way around this theory requiring that Lyanna and Ned are somehow fooled by a newborn infant being replaced by a baby that's at least several months old. That's a lot less believable than Jon being Rhaegar's son and having Stark features, especially considering that this theory relies on them being tricked into thinking a Stark/Dayne baby is a Targaryen.

Brandon would have gotten Ashara pregnant close to nine months before Lyanna gives birth.

Then either the Daynes swap Lyanna's child with B/A's bastard child to protect him, and Ned either finds out when he goes to Starfall and refuses to hand him back to Ashara (to the other Daynes' agreement, since they want to protect Aegon, not Ashara's bastard) or Ned never knows any better and the Daynes are fine with keeping it secret from him but Ashara isn't too happy about it and maybe flees with R/L's child. I think the former is more likely, more interesting.

In any case, it stays close to what I posited in the original post, but has far more interesting implications regarding Ned who basically prefers to protect his brother's bastard over Lyanna's child. Maybe a bit of preference over raising Brandon and Ashara's child over his sister and the lover who was the son of the man who he had just fought a war against and who killed his father and brother. The Daynes would probably want to get rid of Brandon's bastard from their line too.

"Promise me, Ned."

He didn't.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

10 minutes ago, Egged said:

Brandon would have gotten Ashara pregnant close to nine months before Lyanna gives birth.

How? When Lyanna runs off with Rhaegar, Brandon is in the Riverlands heading to meet up with his father. When he hears about Lyanna, he rides to KL and is taken prisoner. Is the theory that Ashara pays him a conjugal visit in the Black Cells where Jon is conceived? The description of the war lasting around a year would seem to put any child conceived around that time as being born months before Ned shows up at the ToJ. It's also apparent that Robert and Catelyn believe Ned conceived him after his marriage, and Jon's official birthday is presumably dated accordingly. What's the point of lying to make him younger than he is? How would people not notice he was obviously older than Robb when they were babies? And was Ashara just hanging around the ToJ nearby so her baby could be swapped right after it was born, or was it raced from Starfall? Why would anyone bank on this plan when the babies easily could have been different genders? And again, as you've repeatedly expressed skepticism about Jon being a Targ despite looking like a Stark, how do you explain the characters in-universe relying on passing him off as a Targaryen and successfully fooling Lyanna and Ned? If that's plausible, why isn't it plausible that Jon has Stark features despite Rhaegar being his father?

Why would Ned refuse to give Brandon's bastard back to the Daynes? Why would he claim him as his own and refuse to tell him who his mother is? Your theory is that Ned promised to protect Lyanna's child and then chose Brandon's bastard over it, or that he didn't promise her that, despite thinking at the time that the baby at the tower was hers? 

[Megorova]

20 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

The description of the war lasting around a year would seem to put any child conceived around that time as being born months before Ned shows up at the ToJ. It's also apparent that Robert and Catelyn believe Ned conceived him after his marriage, and Jon's official birthday is presumably dated accordingly. What's the point of lying to make him younger than he is? How would people not notice he was obviously older than Robb when they were babies?

Ned and Catelyn married in the end of January or in first half of February (I made calculations), and Robb was conceived in span of 14 days that his parents spent together prior Ned went back to war. And Jon was conceived in late December of the previous year. Jon is 1-1,5-2 months older than Robb.

There are indications that people at Winterfell thought that Ned got together with Jon's mother, Ashara, before he got married with Cat, prior the Battle of the Bells, when Ned and Cat weren't yet promised to each other:

"

Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now. I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged.^[6]

—Harwin to Arya Stark

"

People at Winterfell thought that supposedly at Harrenhal's tournament Ned and Ashara met and fell in love, and then later, in late 282, they got together again, and that's when Jon was conceived. Who knows where Ashara was at the time when was supposed to happen Brandon's wedding with Cat. Maybe people thought that Ned met Ashara in this time slot, or some time later after Brandon's death, but before the Battle of the Bells, after which Ned got obligated to marry with Cat. So they thought that Ashara (Jon's mother) was already pregnant, when Ned was getting married with Cat, though Ned didn't knew then about the pregnancy. In Harwin's opinion there was no stain on Ned's honor, because when he conceived Jon, he wasn't married yet. Their assumption was partially correct, Jon's mother indeed got pregnant prior Ned's wedding with Cat, though it wasn't Ashara, it was Lyanna, and the father of her child was Rhaegar, not Ned or Brandon.

People at Winterfell are aware that Jon is older than Robb. In case if Ned ever legitimized Jon, and if after his legitimization Jon gained equal inheritance rights with Ned's other children, then Jon would have been first in line, after Ned he would have became the next Lord of Winterfell. That's why Catelyn hated him so much, and was afraid that he can take Winterfell from Robb.

[Frey family reunion]

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Yes, and there was no reason why Ned would be expected to do this for Jon, and especially not if Jon was Brandon's son.

I don't think the issue is whether anyone would expect Ned to do it for Jon.  I think the issue is whether Ned would ever feel that he owed it to Jon's father or mother to legitimze Jon.

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

This gets at what I was implying about the lack of textual support for the theory. Speculation that the Targs have a magical attraction to siblings (I'm not entirely sure about that, but I can at least see why someone might think that), and then further speculation that the same also applies to the Starks (no basis for this), and then concluding that this means Brandon and Lyanna had an incestuous relationship and are Jon's parents (major leap). There's no direct textual evidence or anything really hinting at this.

I think it's a fair point that GRRM hasn't laid the groundwork for what I'm proposing, at least not yet.  A lot rests as to whether there may be an underlying genetic(?) reason behind Jaime and Cersei's compulsion towards each other.  If there is then it wouldn't suprise me if that same underlying reason might apply to other characters as well, whether GRRM is intentionally creating parallel storylines with various characters.  But I do agree if the next book doesn't dwelve into this issue then it's probably a dead end.  

I would note that the idea of an incestuous Stark relationship does have a precedence in the earliest proposals for A Song of Ice and Fire.  And while the idea of a problematic attraction between Jon and Arya has been jettisoned, it doesn't mean that GRRM may not have simply shifted this idea to other characters in the Stark line.  I think a lot of it depends on just how much inspiration GRRM is taking from the Norse Volsunga saga and Wagner's Ring cycle.  I have a suspicion he has, but not sure to what extent.

As for clues in the back story, we do have precious little to go on, I agree.  I do find it a little odd, that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna inflamed Brandon more than anyone else, Robert included.  If GRRM was taking his inspiration for the Harrenhal tourney from Ivanhoe (and it's inarguable that he did), then it is strange that the character most incensed with Rhaegar's action was Brandon as opposed to Robert.  In Ivanhoe, when the mystery knight crowned the object of his affection, her betrothed was the one who swore revenge.  The gir's family was actually quite happy with the honor, since they considered it less a romatnic overture to their adopted daughter then an acknowledgment of the status of their household.  

Certainly the Starks could have (and probably should have) seen Rhaegar's overture as a sign of respect to their family as opposed to an insult.  

And if GRRM is playing around with the idea that Lyanna is trapped in an unwanted betrothal to Robert, I do find it interesting that Lady Barbrey suggests much the same situation existed with Brandon.  

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

That begs several questions. Starting with, if Brandon is Jon's father, then was at the very least born several months before Ned showed up at the ToJ. Is the theory that Lyanna happened to die several months after childbirth just as Ned showed up? 

My problem with answering this, is that the question is making assumptions that I don't necessarily agree with.

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Even if the theory that when Robert asks Ned about his bastard's mother (who Ned says is Wylla) that Ned's response about dishonor is actually referring to something other than cheating on Catelyn is true, that's clearly not the way Robert takes it. So whatever is in Ned's head isn't really relevant.

Err, no if we're trying to figure out when Jon was conceived then the only thing that is relevant in that conversation is Ned's true meaning, not what Robert (and the readers) assumed Ned was talking about.  I think Ned was careful not to reveal too much information but I also think at the time that he was actually angry about the dishonor he put on Cat.  And I think in Ned's mind the false affirmation (in the sight of gods and men) was a dishonor he cast upon himself and his wife.  It's analagous to when Ned angrily told Cat that Jon was his own blood.  He was speaking truthfully even though his true meaning remained hidden.

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Catelyn also believes that Ned cheated on her. And Jon has a birthday he celebrates, which presumably other people know about. The next question that prompts is this - if Jon is quite a bit older than what Ned claims, what's the point of lying about it? If he tries to pass off Jon as being younger than Robb despite being several months older, does he expect nobody to notice? It's not like giving Jon's real age is going to tip anyone off that he must be the son of Brandon and Lyanna. It serves no purpose as far as I can tell, unnecessarily harms Ned's relationship with his wife, his reputation, and raises the potential to arouse suspicion if anyone notices he's clearly lying about the boy's age for no apparent reason. 

Ned hasn't tried to pass Jon off Jon as being either older or younger than Robb.  At least not to anyone in Winterfell.  I'm unsure as to what story he told Robert.  But as far as Cat is concerned, she has no idea the circumstances as to when or by whom Jon was born.  Ned has never uttered one word to her about it.  There appears to be two rumors around Winterfell, one that Jon is Ashara's son, and the other is that Jon's mother was some commoner Ned met during the war.  Cat doesn't know what's true.  If Jon was born from a commoner during the war, Cat seems to believe it happened after their marriage.  If she suspects that the Winterfell rumors about Ned and Ashara then one would assume that Ned's affair happened before his marriage to Cat.  She acknowledges that she has no idea of the truth of either possibility.

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Setting aside everything I mentioned above, in AGOT Catelyn specifically recalls that when Robb was born, the war was still going on and she was uncertain if Ned would ever see his son. While this theoretically could maybe fall in a narrow window after Ned's fight at the ToJ and before Catelyn heard about Ned survival, this seems unlikely, and the more likely conclusion is that Robb was born by the time the ToJ fight happens.

That would put the battle at the tower of joy 9 months after the Battle of the Bells.  I think that's a tad bit too long.  If you could provide me with this quote, perhaps you could convince me.  The only thing i recall is that Cat said it was a year after their wedding when she arrives at Winterfell to find baby Jon already present.

[Megorova]

10 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Certainly the Starks could have (and probably should have) seen Rhaegar's overture as a sign of respect to their family as opposed to an insult.  

Unless Brandon saw this gesture as a threat. Rhaegar gave the crown to Lyanna to show that he acknowledges that if she wasn't threatened by Aerys and didn't removed herself from further participation in the tournament (as the Knight of the Laughing Tree), then it's likely that she could have won even against Rhaegar, and would have became the winner of that tournament. It's likely that Ned and Brandon found out that Lyanna was the mystery knight, and Rhaegar also knew this. So could be that Brandon interpreted that thru this gesture Rhaegar is threatening or mocking Lyanna and her family, hinting that he knows what she did. On Rhaegar's part it was not a threat, it's the opposite - he acknowledged Lyanna's courageous deed/her defending Howland. Though if Brandon was too weary of Aerys' paranoia, and was afraid for his sister, then any gesture that even hinted on her involvement in the tournament, he saw as a potential danger for Lyanna. And thus it enraged him that Rhaegar, by doing what he did, had drawn to Lyanna unwanted attention of all those people that were present at that tournament. Because someone out of those people also could have realised the true meaning of Rhaegar's gesture, and that would have endangered Lyanna.

This makes sense in a context of what Brandon did, when he found out that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. He thought that Rhaegar is still playing whatever game he was playing at the tournament, and thought that Rhaegar is either mocking Lyanna's family, or took Lyanna to King's Landing to reveal to Aerys that Lyanna was that mystery knight at Harrenhal. Though he was entirely wrong about Rhaegar's intentions, Rhaegar wasn't going to bring Lyanna to KL, nor to reveal what she did in the past.

[lehutin]

37 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think it's a fair point that GRRM hasn't laid the groundwork for what I'm proposing, at least not yet.

...

As for clues in the back story, we do have precious little to go on, I agree.

Here's my olive branch to you. If you had admitted this upfront - that you at best have "precious little" textual evidence for B+L=J - then I wouldn't have said anything. My rule is that when a person disclaims that he/she is talking about fanfic, headcanon, tinfoil, etc., I don't comment. I let things be.

 

But if you don't admit this upfront and instead claim that B+L=J is the "really only one parentage possibility," then you have to accept that the conversation might go in directions you don't like. Fair?

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

My problem with answering this, is that the question is making assumptions that I don't necessarily agree with.

Please elaborate. What is your timeline here? I do not see how a Brandon-Lyanna conception can fit in a timeline where it comes anywhere near 9 months before the ToJ fight.

 

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ned hasn't tried to pass Jon off Jon as being either older or younger than Robb. 

The ages of Jon and Robb are both remarked on. They're both said to be fourteen at the start of the story, and we know they both celebrated birthdays later that year. One of their birthdays has to come first. There's no reason to think Jon's birthday is a secret. If Jon's is first, it doesn't make sense that Catelyn is under the impression that Ned cheated on her. It also wouldn't make sense to give Robert that impression if he ever found out that Jon was older than Robb, as it would be suspicious. 

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That would put the battle at the tower of joy 9 months after the Battle of the Bells.  I think that's a tad bit too long.  If you could provide me with this quote, perhaps you could convince me.  The only thing i recall is that Cat said it was a year after their wedding when she arrives at Winterfell to find baby Jon already present.

You can think it's too long, but we never get any real indication of the gap between those events. Catelyn's POV is pretty unambiguous. When Robb was born, the war was not over and she wasn't sure Ned would ever see his son.

Quote

Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips. At least he had left her with more than words; he had given her a son. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. 

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

Ned and Catelyn married in the end of January or in first half of February (I made calculations), and Robb was conceived in span of 14 days that his parents spent together prior Ned went back to war. And Jon was conceived in late December of the previous year. Jon is 1-1,5-2 months older than Robb.

I've seen your calculations of these things, and I'll just say that I take them with a grain of salt. They don't even use the names of the months we have in Westeros, or celebrate Christmas Eve, as I've seen you suggest as Jon's conception date.

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

There are indications that people at Winterfell thought that Ned got together with Jon's mother, Ashara, before he got married with Cat, prior the Battle of the Bells, when Ned and Cat weren't yet promised to each other:

There really isn't much basis for this, certainly not as any sort of reliable indicator of anything. Jon does not even come up in Harwin's story, and he explicitly says he doesn't believe it. Furthermore, a Harrenhal conception date would put Jon as more than a year older than even your timeline suggests. 

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

and then later, in late 282, they got together again, and that's when Jon was conceived.

Do tell where it is stated that people believe Ned and Ashara got together in late 282.

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

People at Winterfell are aware that Jon is older than Robb. In case if Ned ever legitimized Jon, and if after his legitimization Jon gained equal inheritance rights with Ned's other children, then Jon would have been first in line, after Ned he would have became the next Lord of Winterfell. That's why Catelyn hated him so much, and was afraid that he can take Winterfell from Robb.

There's no indication that Jon's age relative to Robb is the source of Catelyn's disdain. From her POV she clearly believes Ned cheated on her, and Robert clearly has that impression as well. It's entirely possible that Jon actually is older than Robb, but from what we know it doesn't make sense for his official birthday to be earlier. There'd be no reason for anyone to think Ned cheated on Catelyn if that was the case. Harwin says it would be no stain on his honor because the time he is talking about is the tourney at Harrenhal, at which point Brandon was still alive and betrothed to Catelyn.  Furthermore, as I have pointed out above, per Catelyn's POV we know that the war was still going on and she was uncertain of Ned's survival when Robb was born. A short time after the ToJ fight is the absolute latest this could plausibly be, but 2 months afterwards is a major stretch IMO. 

[Megorova]

10 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Do tell where it is stated that people believe Ned and Ashara got together in late 282.

That's when (they think) Jon was conceived. They know when he was born, because he does have a birthday, and they counted 9 months back, and made conclusion that Ned was with Jon's mother, supposedly Ashara Dayne, at the time of Jon's conception, wich was in late 282. If they believe that Ashara is Jon's mother, then they also believe that Ned was with her at that point in time.

10 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I've seen your calculations of these things, and I'll just say that I take them with a grain of salt. They don't even use the names of the months we have in Westeros, or celebrate Christmas Eve, as I've seen you suggest as Jon's conception date.

That's the thing - GRRM doesn't use any names for months of Planetos. And it doesn't matter that they don't celebrate Christmas, because Christmas is not the point, the point is that the baby's conception happened in second half of the Twelfth Moon of 282, if that sounds better to you.

10 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Furthermore, a Harrenhal conception date would put Jon as more than a year older than even your timeline suggests. 

I didn't said that Jon was conceived at the time of Harrenhal's tournament in late 281, I said that people believed that that's when Ned and Ashara fell in love, and that they had sex again much later, in late 282, at the time of Jon's conception.

Obviously I know that Jon is not Ned's son, and that Ashara wasn't Ned's love interest. I'm sure that she is Howland Reed's wife, and that approximately at the time of Jon's conception +- a few weeks, Ashara and Howland conceived Meera. And that people thought that at Harrenhal something happened between Ned and Ashara, because they saw Ashara coming out (or going in) of Ned's tent in the middle of the night. But nothing happened between them, she went there because Rhaegar sent her to warn Lyanna about Aerys' plans to unmask the Knight of the Laughing Tree on the next day. Lyanna was using Howland's shield, she took it and painted it with a tree-sigil, and after using it in tournament, she returned it back to wherever Howland was storing his belongings. During that tournament Howland was living together with Ned in Ned's tent, so after warning Lyanna not to continue her participation in tournament, Ashara told her to get rid of those things that can reveal her as the mystery knight, and Lyanna told her that she returned the painted shield to Howland's other belongings. So Ashara went to Ned's tent to take the shield from there, and that's when someone saw her, sneaking into Ned's tent. Ashara couldn't have allowed Lyanna to go and retrieve the shield herself, because if someone saw Lyanna with that shield, then they could have realised that she is that mystery knight, because at the time of "his" appearance, Lyanna wasn't seen by anyone, she wasn't amongst spectators or anywhere else, and she was short like that knight. But if someone caught Ashara with that shield, she could have just said that she found it. Rhaegar told Ashara to protect Lyanna, so even when later there appeared rumors that Ashara was with Ned on that night, Ashara didn't corrected them that she went to Ned's tent just to get something from there, and that there was nothing going on between her and Ned. She was dishonored at Harrenhal, but for Lyanna's sake had to keep herself from refuting those rumors. Howland knew that there was nothing going on between Ned and Ashara, because he was in that tent with Ned, when Ashara came there. All three of them had to keep quiet about what really happened, to protect Lyanna. Howland and Ashara had this shared secret, and that's what made them close.

Barristan Selmy also knew what really happened, he knew that there was nothing between Ned and Ashara. Barristan was one of those people to whom Rhaegar trusted. Arthur and Barristan were with Rhaegar, when Rhaegar found out about Aerys' plans. Rhaegar sent Ashara because she was Elia's lady-in-waiting and Arthur's sister, and he trusted to Arthur. Could be that Barristan offered to go himself, but Rhaegar and Ashara decided that it will be bad if anyone will see Barristan or Arthur anywhere near Lyanna, because it was very late, majory of the tournament's attendants were already sleeping. If someone saw Lyanna, a young lady, so late at night in a company of a man, it could have dishonored her. So instead of using Barristan's help, which he offered, Ashara turned to Stark/went to Ned to ask his help.

In this context, what Barristan thought about Ashara, gets a totally different meaning: "She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?^[5]"

Rhaegar realised that Lyanna was the mystery knight, because he noticed her during the fiest. He was singing, and then she cried, and when Benjen laughed at her, she poured wine over his head. This scene has drawn Rhaegar's attention to Lyanna, and later that evening he saw how Howland Reed pointed out to Lyanna those three squires that attacked him previously (Frey, Haigh, Blount). Two days later in the tournament appeared a mystery knight, who challenged knights from those three Houses. Rhaegar saw that when the mystery knight was there, Lyanna wasn't present. And probably he also noticed that the knight's shield is the same shield that he previously saw with Howland, when Howland was at the fiest sitting with Lyanna. Thus later he sent Ashara to warn Lyanna and to get rid of the shield.

That's how appeared rumors about Ned and Ashara.

10 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

From her POV she clearly believes Ned cheated on her, and Robert clearly has that impression as well.

Other people think that Jon's mother is a fisherman's daughter, because at the time of Jon's conception Ned was sailing from Gulltown to White Harbor, in Twelfth Moon of 282. People that think that Jon's mother is Ashara, probably thought that instead of going to White Harbor, Ned at first sailed to Starfall, or someplace else, where he had rendezvous with Ashara. Those people that know that Ned was at The Bite at the time of Jon's conception, and think that Jon's mother is a fisherman's daughter, and those people that don't know Ned's exact whereabouts at the time of Jon's conception, and think that the mother is Ashara, those people from Team-A and people from Team-FD have never met, and have never exchanged information. Otherwise they would have realised that Jon is not Ned's son.

Robert thought that Jon's mother is Wylla, and that Ned met her after his wedding with Catelyn. Jon's birthday is in September, or Ninth Moon. A fulltermed pregnancy last 40 weeks, or 9 months and 10 more days. Though that's not always correct, many women give birth only after 38 weeks of pregnancy, or sometimes even less. Based on the day of Jon's birthday, it's impossible to exactly define the day of his conception, because maybe he was born premature (he wasn't, but they don't know that).

Just because Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's, doesn't mean that Jon was conceived earlier than Robb. Robb could have been conceived earlier, but Jon was born less than 9 months after his(Jon's) conception. He could have been born 1-1,5 months premature, only after 8 months and 10 days or only 8 months of his mother's pregnancy, or even less than after 8 months since conception. Even children that were born only after 7 months of pregnancy are viable/can survive. Thus people in Team-Wylla, such as Robert and Catelyn, believe that Ned cheated on Catelyn, after their wedding. 

Team-W think that Jon was conceived after the wedding and was born premature, Team-A and Team-FD think that Jon was conceived prior the wedding and was born after his mother's fulltermed pregnancy.

Jon was conceived earlier than Robb (but people don't know that, some of them think so, while others think otherwise, based on whom they think to be Jon's mother), and was born earlier than Robb (about this people do know).

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

11 hours ago, Megorova said:

That's when (they think) Jon was conceived. They know when he was born, because he does have a birthday, and they counted 9 months back, and made conclusion that Ned was with Jon's mother, supposedly Ashara Dayne, at the time of Jon's conception, wich was in late 282. If they believe that Ashara is Jon's mother, then they also believe that Ned was with her at that point in time.

I'm asking you to provide textual evidence that this is what they believe. 

11 hours ago, Megorova said:

That's the thing - GRRM doesn't use any names for months of Planetos. And it doesn't matter that they don't celebrate Christmas, because Christmas is not the point, the point is that the baby's conception happened in second half of the Twelfth Moon of 282, if that sounds better to you.

We do not in fact know that

11 hours ago, Megorova said:

Other people think that Jon's mother is a fisherman's daughter, because at the time of Jon's conception Ned was sailing from Gulltown to White Harbor, in Twelfth Moon of 282.

I think you're giving a rumor from some remote islands way too much credit. I doubt anyone in the Three Sisters knows when Jon Snow's birthday is. It's a story that presumably some locals made up to involve their little home in an interesting and dramatic tale about an honorable high lord fathering a bastard there while he was fleeing for his life. 

11 hours ago, Megorova said:

Just because Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's, doesn't mean that Jon was conceived earlier than Robb

We don't know that Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's. And there's no evidence for your suggestion that people like Catelyn and Robert think Jon was born premature.  Child mortality was very high in general in a medieval society, and the odds of a baby born 1-2 months premature surviving were not good, there's no reason that would be the default assumption. And it doesn't make any sense for Ned to give that explanation or impression. Why not just say you hooked up with his mother before you married Cat? If the birthdays align that way there's no reason not to go with that story. 

And this still does not address the implication of Catelyn's POV about the timing of Robb's birth. She's very clear that when Robb was born, the war was still going on and she wasn't sure about Ned surviving. It's very difficult to make that fit with Jon being 2 months older than Robb, unless you think Lyanna died multiple months after giving birth.

[Megorova]

(I'm warning you beforehand, that in the end of this post I wrote: "Let's end this conversation. It isn't going anywhere. Let's return to it later, after TWOW's release, of after ADOS's." Though, if you'll have more questions (about this post), I can answer them (I'm actually using this forum to practice English, which is my fourth language), so I don't mind, much, sometimes going in circles while discussing.)

9 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

21 hours ago, Megorova said:

That's when (they think) Jon was conceived. They know when he was born, because he does have a birthday, and they counted 9 months back, and made conclusion that Ned was with Jon's mother, supposedly Ashara Dayne, at the time of Jon's conception, wich was in late 282. If they believe that Ashara is Jon's mother, then they also believe that Ned was with her at that point in time.

I'm asking you to provide textual evidence that this is what they believe. 

1.

"They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again."

2.

"You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?"

3.

"If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be."

4.

" "My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?"

"No. Did he know her?"

"Tell me."

He looked at her uncomfortably. "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—"

"That's not so. He loved my lady mother." "

5.

" "That boy Ned said . . ."

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly. "Ned says she jumped from a tower into the sea." "

6.

"But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well."

 

~~~

Those people have several different concepts about what happened. Catelyn, Ned Junior, people at Winterfell, and Cersei thought that Ashara commited suicide because Ned stole her child, Jon. They all thought that Jon's mother was Ashara. Catelyn does know when is Jon's birthday, so counting 9months-and-10days back from Jon's birthday, that's when Jon was conceived, or could have been conceived, because if his mother's pregnancy wasn't a fulltermed one, then he was conceived not as far back from his birthday as 40 weeks, but less than that. If Jon was born after 8, or 7 and a half, or 7 months long pregnancy, then that places his conception already after Cat's wedding with Ned.

~~~

1. People at Winterfell know when is Jon's birthday.

(It's in late 283, 8 months prior Dany's, and 8 months after Rhaego's. Three heads of the dragon, the Holy Trinity of ASOIAF - The Mother, The Son, and The Holy Ghost. 24/3=8. Jon/September - 8 months later - Dany/May - 8 months later - Rhaego/January - 8 months later - Jon/September. The full circle. Libra, Gemini, Aquarius.)

2. So they also approximately know the time of his conception (late 282 - early 283).

3. They think that Jon's mother is Ashara.

1+2+3= those people believe that Ned was with Ashara in late 282 - early 283, when they supposedly conceived Jon.

~~~

Barristan doesn't think that Jon is Ashara's child. Maybe he doesn't know about Jon, didn't knew that Ned Stark had a bastard. Either he didn't knew about Jon at all, or thought that Jon is not Ashara's child. Barristan thought that Ashara gave birth to a stillborn daughter, and soon afterwards commited suicide, when Ned came to Starfall, which places the birth of Ashara's supposedly stillborn daughter at approximately the same time as Jon's birth. If Barristan thought that Ashara's baby was fathered by Ned, then he also thought that Ned was with Ashara approximately 9 or so months prior that baby's birth, so he also placed Ned's whereabouts in late 282 - early 283 with Ashara, wherever she was at that time.

~~~

It's not writen anywhere directly what those people thought about Jon's birthday or his conception. But it's a logical conclusion (about what they thought) that is based on that information, quotes from above.

9 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

We do not in fact know that

We actually, sort of, do know that. It's not hard to calculate it, based on Harrenhal's tournament as a starting date.

1. Less than two months after Harrenhal's tournament the False Spring ended.

2. The snow started falling on first day of 282.

1+2 places Harrenhal's tourney, which lasted 10 days, in the end of October-beginning of November.

3. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna less than 12 months after Harrenhal's tournament. (1, 2, and 3 is information from the World book). With addition of my calculations of distances and timing of traveling that occured in span of Robert's Rebellion, this places Lyanna's kidnapping ~in the middle of September.

4. Starting from Lyanna's kidnapping I calculated how much time was needed for Brandon to go to King's Landing, Rickard to go there too from Riverrun, Aerys to send a raven to the Eyrie, Jon Arryn to gather his troops and to go to Gulltown, Ned going from Gulltown thru The Bite to the White Harbor and Robert going from Gulltown to Storm's End, from Storm's End to Summerhall, back to Storm's End, then to Ashford, then to Stoney Sept; and at that same time Ned was first going to The North, and then returning from there with his troops and going thru Riverrun, where they picked up Hoster Tully and his troops, and then went to the Stoney Sept, where they arrived just in time for the Battle of the Bells. After the Battle of the Bells Aerys sent Gerold Hightower to find Rhaegar. Gerold had enough time to go from King's Landing to Harrenhal (where he found out from Oswel Whent's relatives where is Oswel (who was one of the Kingsguards that went with Rhaegar to kidnap Lyanna), then from Harrenhal to Starfall (that's where Rhaegar and Lyanna went after they eloped. They eloped in the middle of September and arrived to Starfall close to Christmas Eve, and conceived Jon), from Starfall Rhaegar went to King's Landing and then to Trident. At that time Ned and Jon Arryn went to Riverrun and married with Tully sisters. 14 days after the wedding Ned went back to war. Between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle at the Trident months passed, in span of those months Barristan Selmy was gathering scattered Targaryen troops and Gerold was searching Rhaegar. Then I calculated, based on information such as Dany being born 9 months after Rhaella's departure to Dragonstone, which occured after they got information from the Trident that Rhaegar died, and Ned with his army is going to King's Landing, then the Sack of KL, Ned went to Storm's End, Ned went to Starfall where Jon was born on September 23 (autumnal equinox of 1983/283), 8 months later Dany was born at Dragonstone, in May. Jon is Libra, Dany is Gemini, Rhaego is Aquarius, all three are Air signs of Zodiac, three dragonriders (Dany/Drogon, Rhaego/Rhaegal, Jon/Viseryon. The clues are sound-effects with which dragon eggs hatched at Drogo's funeral pyre, in AGOT Dany IX).

5. GRRM said that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany.

Dany's 13th birthday was in first half of 297. When she was approximately 13 years and 6 months old, she got married to Khal Drogo. On the day of her 14th birthday she realised that she is pregnant. At that point in time she was 1 month pregnant, it was in May, and her baby was born 8 months later in January.

Rhaego's birthday and Joffrey's birthday are close in time. Days after Rhaego's supposed death, The Bleeding Star commet appeared in the sky above the Red Waste, and also above King's Landing, when they held that tournament in honor of Joffrey's 13th birthday, in early 299. Joffrey died on the first day of 300, before his birthday of that year. It is known that Jon Arryn died 14 days after Joffrey's 12th birthday. King Robert sent a raven to Ned, who got it after execution of that deserter from Night's Watch, who had met the Others in late 297, in the Prologue of AGOT. After that encounter he had enough time to get from The Wall to Winterfell, where he was executed, close to that time when Ned received that raven with information about Jon Arryn's death. Based on how long Tyrion and Jon traveled to The Wall from Winterfell, we know approximately how much time after that deserter's encounter with the Others (in the end of 297) he arrived to Winterfell. Joffrey's and Rhaego's birthdays are in 20s of January, Jon Arryn's death and the deserter's execution occured in late February-early March of 298.

I also calculated how much time Robert and his entourage needed to get from King's Landing to Winterfell, and for how long Ned and the girls traveled from Winterfell to King's Landing, in parallel to Jon and Tyrion's journey to The Wall and Catelyn's journey to King's Landing, where she arrived shortly prior Ned's arrival there, and shortly afterwards went from KL to the Crossroads Inn where she got just in time to meet there Tyrion, who, after going with Jon to The Wall, returned to Winterfell and from there traveled to the Crossroads Inn. I made those calculations based on duration of Bran's coma, GRRM did gave information how many days after Bran's fall Jon departed to The Wall, how many days later Cat was attacked by an assassin, when Jon got news about Bran waking up, etc. Using Bran's fall as a starting point, and Tyrion and Catelyn meeting at the Crossroads Inn as an ending point, we can establish duration of all that traveling on both sides, and also the duration of Ned&the girls' journey (Ned arrived to KL ~14 days prior Cat met Tyrion at the Crossroads Inn). If we know duration of the journey from Winterfell to King's Landing, then we also know the duration of journey from King's Landing to Winterfell. With addition of this information to information that Robert departed from KL to Winterfell some time after Jon Arryn's death, who died 14 days after Joffrey's birthday, whose birthday is close to Rhaego's birthday (the comet at tournament), about which pregnancy Dany found out on the day of her 14th birthday, we thus know (approximately) when is Dany's birthday, which, according to GRRM is 8-9 months after Jon's birthday, so we also know when is Jon's birthday.

After Rhaego's birth, Dany and what remained of her khalasar, went from the Red Waste first to Vaes Tholor and then to Qarth. Approximately at the time of their arrival to Qarth, Dany turned 15 years old (she said in her chapter that she's 15 now). I calculated distances between those cities and how much time is needed for those travels. Rhaego was born in 20s of January, and Dany's birthday/her arrival to Qarth happened in 20s of May, four months to get from the Red Waste to Qarth, with inclusion of how long they were staying at Vaes Tholor, and for how long they traveled to that city from the Red Waste (based on how many people died during that voyage. They were dying at a rate several people per certain amount of days, when they departed they had this number of people, at the time of their arrival they had this many people left, thus they traveled for this long (I don't remember exact numbers)).

 

Mind that at first, when I was making my calculations, I didn't used exact dates/months, I only calculated how much time was required for this or that travel. In result of those calculations I found out approximate magrins/timing for Robert's Rebellion, etc. Then I inserted into those margins what GRRM said about age difference between Jon and Dany. I calculated how much time passed between Lyanna's kindnapping and the Battle at Ashford, which is the last battle of 282. It is known that the Rebellion lasted a bit less than a year, and that the official ending of it was when Ned lifted siege of the Storm's End. Thus between Lyanna's kidnapping and the lifting of siege passed less than 12 months. Also between Harrenhal's tournament (in 281) and Lyanna's kidnapping (in 282) passed less than 12 months. And, based on information from the World book, we know that the Harrenhal's tournament was in late October-early November. If Lyanna's kidnapping occured later than in the middle of September, then there would have been not enough time for all those other events that happened afterwards in 282. For the Battle at Ashford to happen still in 282, Lyanna's kidnapping had to occur in September, no later. The beginning of the Rebellion is not Lyanna's kidnapping, it's when Aerys executed Brandon and Rickard and sent that raven to Jon Arryn, after which Jon with his troops went to Gulltown. So the Rebellion actualy started somewhere in October and ended in late August/early September, and thus lasted approximately 11 months. After lifting the siege at Storm's End Ned had just enough time to sail from there to Starfall, where he found dying Lyanna, that just recently gave birth to Jon. 8 months later Dany was born at Dragonstone. 14 years later Dany found out that she's pregnant. 8 months later she gave birth to Rhaego, whose birthday is close to Joffrey's birthday, which is 14 days prior Jon Arryn's death, which occured close to the time when that deserter from the Night's Watch got from The Wall (from which he departed in the end of 297) to Winterfell (and based on Jon and Tyrion's journey to The Wall, we know approximate duration of travel from The Wall to Winterfell).

So we do actually know when and who was born or when what occured. Even though GRRM did tried not to give too much information.     

10 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Why not just say you hooked up with his mother before you married Cat? If the birthdays align that way there's no reason not to go with that story. 

The reason why he couldn't use this option, is that at the time of Jon's conception certain people did knew where Ned was, and those people know that Ashara Dayne nor Wylla from Starfall was with Ned at that time.

~~~

Let's end this conversation. It isn't going anywhere. Let's return to it later, after TWOW's release, of after ADOS.