I know it's a tired topic, but tell me why A + N != J and R + L != A

[Megorova]

11 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

She's very clear that when Robb was born, the war was still going on and she wasn't sure about Ned surviving.

The Rebellion officially ended after the lifting of Storm's End's siege. But in the south there still were ongoing small battles, raids, etc. Cat didn't knew where Ned was at that time. She thought that he also went there, to the south. And he did, though not to participate in battles, but to find Lyanna.

There's that quote what Cersei said: "Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned?" Cersei doesn't know how old is Jon, she made assumption that Jon was conceived by Ned when Ned went to Dorne after the lifting of SE's siege.

[Frey family reunion]

On 2/5/2021 at 9:35 PM, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Please elaborate. What is your timeline here? I do not see how a Brandon-Lyanna conception can fit in a timeline where it comes anywhere near 9 months before the ToJ fight.

If Jon was born around the time of the TOJ fight, then I agree, he could not have been conceived prior to Lyanna's "disappearance".  I think it's more likely, however,  that Jon was born shortly before the Battle of the Trident.  Once again, there is an assumption that Lyanna died at the tower of joy shortly after giving birth to Jon.  I don't agree with that assumption.  

On 2/5/2021 at 9:35 PM, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

The ages of Jon and Robb are both remarked on. They're both said to be fourteen at the start of the story, and we know they both celebrated birthdays later that year. One of their birthdays has to come first. There's no reason to think Jon's birthday is a secret. If Jon's is first, it doesn't make sense that Catelyn is under the impression that Ned cheated on her. It also wouldn't make sense to give Robert that impression if he ever found out that Jon was older than Robb, as it would be suspicious. 

That's a fair point.  I could be wrong, though, but in Westeros don't they technically celebrate someone's "name day" not their "birth day"?  Tricky, tricky Ned.

On 2/5/2021 at 9:35 PM, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

You can think it's too long, but we never get any real indication of the gap between those events. Catelyn's POV is pretty unambiguous. When Robb was born, the war was not over and she wasn't sure Ned would ever see his son.

Yes, I agree we never do get a really good indication about the gap between these events.  As for the quote, yes your interpretation could be correct, or Cat could simply be referring to the time that Ned spent in Dorne or down South in general.  I'm not sure how many details she knows about Ned's events, and when he technically stopped fighting the war.  But I don't have any real dispute with your timeline, I don't think.  Once again, my premise is not that Jon was born around the time of the tower of joy fight.  I think if Jon was present at the tower of joy (and I think he was) Ned may have arrived to stop Jon's err, "rebirth".  

But more mundanely, as for the timeline, I think we first have to have a handle on when the Battle of the Bells was fought, and the earliest time period that Ned could have arrived with his army in the North.  Forgetting all of the travel and battles that Robert fought before the Battle of the Bells, let's take a look at Ned's travels.  He first had to make his way through the Mountains of the Fingers and travel by small boat to the Sisters and then to White Harbor.  He then needs to make his way up to Winterfell.  An army then has to assemble at Winterfell many of which must have come from some of the outskirts of the North, such as the Umbers, and apparently some of the Mountain Clans.  This army then has to make it's way from Winterfell to the Stoney Sept.  We're talking about travels and events that should have taken a good number of months.  I think on the conservative side, the earliest the Battle of Bells could have been fought is about halfway through the start of the war.  So I'd guess 5 to 6 months at least.  

[Megorova]

32 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But more mundanely, as for the timeline, I think we first have to have a handle on when the Battle of the Bells was fought, and the earliest time period that Ned could have arrived with his army in the North.  Forgetting all of the travel and battles that Robert fought before the Battle of the Bells, let's take a look at Ned's travels.  He first had to make his way through the Mountains of the Fingers and travel by small boat to the Sisters and then to White Harbor.  He then needs to make his way up to Winterfell.  An army then has to assemble at Winterfell many of which must have come from some of the outskirts of the North, such as the Umbers, and apparently some of the Mountain Clans.  This army then has to make it's way from Winterfell to the Stoney Sept.  We're talking about travels and events that should have taken a good number of months.  I think on the conservative side, the earliest the Battle of Bells could have been fought is about halfway through the start of the war.  So I'd guess 5 to 6 months at least.  

I did those calculation before, here (9 quotes below)

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151000-daenerys-quaithe-and-asshai/page/2/

( @Egged previously I did complete calculations for all major events of Robert's Rebellion. Though at that point in time I still mistakenly thought that Lyanna died at the Tower of Joy. Now I think otherwise, I'm sure that it happened at Starfall. Though here's my previous calculations:)

Spoiler

 1

Quote

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna a bit less than a year after Tournament at Harrenhall. The Rebellion started not long after Lyanna's kidnapping, and in 282, there wasn't many battles, so Lyanna's kidnapping happened just a few months prior New Year. If we'll use our calendar, then she was kidnapped sometime in September-November.

I made calculations based on the length of The Wall - 300 miles, I measured distances between major locations of Rebellion (such as KL, Trident, Harrenhall, Starfall, Tower of Joy, Storm's End, The Vale, Riverrun), also I used this source for speed of horses https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

First I calculated distances and travel time, and then applied this info to known timeframe of events, such as Lyanna's kidnapping happening in later part of a year, Battle of the Bells first battle of 283, Dany's birth approximately 9 months after the Sack of KL, age difference between Jon and Dany 8-9 month <- this is what GRRM said! - using all that information, I made a fairly accurate timeframe, and nothing in this timeframe goes against any of known information, so it's highly likely, that my calculations are correct.

2

Quote

Lyanna and Brandon were on the way to Riverrun, though probably they departed there from different locations. Most likely when Rickard heard about Lyanna's disappearance, and that Brandon went to KL, at that time Rickard was already at Riverrun. And it's unlikely, that he waited to get a personal invitation from Aerys, until he went after his son to KL.

I found info on speed of travel on horseback, thru various types of terrains, how far a horse can travel, miles per day:

https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

On Roads / trails
Level or rolling terrain: 40
Hilly terrain: 30
Mountainous terrain: 20

Off-Road (or unkempt trails etc)
Level/rolling grasslands: 30
Hilly grasslands: 25
Level/rolling forest/thick scrub: 20
Very hilly forest/thick scrub: 15

Un-blazed Mountain passes: 10
Marshland: 10

Distance from Riverrun to KL is 770 miles, by River Road and King Road.

770/40 = 19,25 days. From September 23 + 19,25 days - 19th day will be October 12 and 19,25th day will be October 13.

October 12-13th - Rickard arrived to KL.

What a coincidence! this is also an important date from the War of Roses (The battle of Ludford Bridge (12-13 October 1459) was a humiliating defeat that appeared to have ended any hopes of a Yorkist victory in the Wars of the Roses.)

What happened on September 23rd -"Salisbury then ran into Audley and Dudley at Blore Heath in Shropshire (23 September 1459), but defeated the larger Lancastrian army and was able continue on his way south."

Rhaegar ran into Lyanna, and after that went south, same as Salisbury during War of Roses.

3

Quote

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles. Furthest castle of The Vale from The Eyrie is Baelish Keep - 470 miles.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)." There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons, that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

I don't think, that it took Jon much time to decide what to do, whether to comply with Aerys' demand, or to send ravens to his own bannermen all over The Vale.

Eyrie -> Baelish Keep and other castles, 470/50 = 9,4 hours.

Thus less than 24 hours after Rickard's and Brandon's execution, entire Vale already knew, that they are going to rebel against Targaryens.

During winter The Vale is unaccessible thru mountain trails, so the only way to get out of it is by sea-route. So they went from The Eyrie to Gulltown, probably thru Redford, 370 miles thru mountainous terrain, 370/20 = 18,5 days.

While Robert and Jon Arryn went to fight in Gulltown (and that battle ended fast), Ned went thru the Moon mountains and The Fingers, from where he was transported thru The Bite by local fisherman. That's why some people thought, that Jon's mother was some fisherman's daughter. Because Jon was conceived at approximately that time plus minus a month or two, when Ned was going to The North from The Vale. By that time Gulltown was already under control of rebels, and Robert sailed to Storm's End.

812 nautical miles. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 miles per hour. 

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Journals/TAPA/82/Speed_under_Sail_of_Ancient_Ships*.html

Under favourable winds Robert arrived to Storm's End, after 7 days of sea-travel. With unfavourable winds, the speed could be 1,5 knots. 1 knot is 1,15 miles per hour. So minimum speed is 1,725 mph. The ship can sail 24 hours per day, unlike horses it doesn't need to rest. So under unfavourable winds, it would have taken Robert 20 days to sail from Gulltown to Storm's End. Obviously that by the time when Robert was already home, Ned was still on the way North, whether Robert arrived home after 7 or 20 days of travel.

4

Quote

Robert left Stannis to command in Storm's End, and then went to Ashford.

Summerhall is located nearly in the middle.

Storm's End 300 miles - Summerhall - 270 miles Ashford.

So it doesn't make sense, if after only one day of battle at Summerhall, Robert went all the way back to Storm's End, to later go back thru Summerhall again, to Ashford. It's obvious, that he went to Ashford from Summerhall, 270/20 = 13,5 days. (<- This part is wrong, he did went back to Storm's End twice, later I corrected it)

There he fought against troops of Randyll Tarly, and was wounded. Mace Tyrell also was bringing his troops to fight against rebels, so Robert had to withdraw from that battle, and went to Stoney Sept in Riverlands. And while he was going there, Mace went with his troops from Ashford to Storm's End, to lay a siege, that was lifted by Ned, close to a year after that.

Ashford -> Stoney Sept - 570 miles thru hilly grasslands, 570/25 = 22,8 days.

Mace Tyrell went same distance, 570 miles to Storm's End (270 miles to Summerhall, and 300 miles from there to Storm's End), though his troops were going thru Dornish Marches, so they were going slower that Robert's forces, that went to Riverlands. 570/20 = 28,5 days. Thus by the time, when Mace arrived to Storm's End, nearly a week passed since Robert arrived to Stoney Sept.

Battle at Ashford was last battle of 282. By the time when Mace arrived to Storm's End, and Robert arrived to Stoney Sept, it was already year 283.

Also distance between Highgarden and Ashford is the same as between Summerhall and Ashford - 270 miles thru mountainous terrain. So probably when Robert defeated those lords at Summerhall, Mace marched his troops towards Ashford, same as Robert. Though he departed later than Robert, thus the reason why he was a bit late for that battle, and Randyll Tarly mostly won with his troops alone.

5

Quote

I also calculated how much time it took Ned to go from the Eyrie to The North, and from there for his troops to arrive just in time for Battle of the Bells.

Eyrie - Fingers, 470 miles thru Vale of Arryn, thru off-road hilly grasslands, speed 25 miles per hour, 18,8 days.

Fingers - White Harbor, thru The Bite on a rowboat, 835 miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowing

"A rower can maintain 40 strokes per minute for only a brief period. Longer, narrower rowboats can reach 7 knots (13 km/h; 8.1 mph) but most rowboats of 4.3 m (14 ft) can be rowed at 3–4 knots (5.6–7.4 km/h; 3.5–4.6 mph)."

I'm taking speed 4 mph, and that they rowed for 8 hours per day, taking one hour break, after each of them rowing for 30 minutes.

For example they wake up at 5 am, with sunrise. One hour for breakfast and other trivial things, and then each day they depart/begin rowing from 6 am.

1 hour 6-7 rowing, 7-8 break, 2 hour 8-9 rowing, 9-10 break, 3 hour 10-11 rowing, 11-12 break, 4 hour 12-13 rowing, 13-14 break, 5 hour 14-15 rowing, 15-16 break, 6 hour 16-17 rowing, 17-18 break, 7 hour 18-19 rowing, 19-20 break, 8 hour 20-21 rowing, and they go to sleep after 9 pm, which gives them 8 hours of daily sleep until 5 am. Or if one of them is staying awake during night, while the other one is either just watching over boat, or continue rowing, then each of them will sleep for 4 hours per day. If it was a boat with sail, then they could have sailed at night on wind alone, without rowing. So one of them can sleep and the other is managing boat.

So 4 mph, and 8 hours of rowing per day, is reasonable amount, especially for a healthy 20-years old Ned, and his companion - professional fisherman, who's rowing and sailing all the time.

835 miles / 4 mph / 8 hours = 26 days.

Ned arrived to White Harbor, 26 days after departing from The Fingers.

From Baelish Keep, or from Sisterton, or from White Harbor, or even prior his departure from The Eyrie, he could have sent a raven to his people in Winterfell and other northern castles, for his bannermen to begin necessary preparations. So they marched towards Winterfell long prior Ned arrived home. Though maybe he didn't even went all the way to Winterfell, maybe his troops met him at White Harbor. Though I included either possibility, even that fleet seized by Arryn, could have sailed up north, and went thru northern castles located on shores (Ramsgate, Hornwood, Widow's Watch, The Dreadford, Karhold), gathering northern troops from there, and bringing them to Trident, from which they charged towards Stoney Sept.

I'm writting the longest route, which is via land (by ships it would have been much faster):

from White Harbor up White Knife by ship, 400 miles to King's Road. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 mph. Could be even higher, but I'm taking average. The ship could saild 24 hours per day. 400 / 5 /24 = 3,33 days.

From there by King's Road, 70 miles to Winterfell, by level road, 40 miles per day. 70/40 = 1,75 days.

Then by King's Road northern troops went 1,200 miles to Crossroads Inn.

1,200/40 = 30 days.

And from there to Stoney Sept, thru hilly grasslands, with speed 25 miles per day. 335 miles/25 = 13,4 days.

18,8 (Eyrie - Fingers) + 26 (Fingers - White Harbor) + 3,33 (White Harbor - King's Road) + 1,75 (King's Road - Winterfell) + 30 (Winterfell - Trident/Crossroad Inn) + 13,4 (Crossroad - Stoney Sept) = 93,28 days between Ned departing from The Eyrie, and arriving just in time to save Robert at Stoney Sept.

If Brandon and Rickard were executed on 13 October, and Ned departed from The Eyrie on 14-15 October, after Jon Arryn received Aerys' letter, then he arrived to Stoney Sept 93,28 days later, in the first part of day 94 counting from 14-15 October, and that's 15 January - the day of the Bells battle.

6 (Correction to this one, later I realised that Lyanna thru all duration of the Rebellion was staying at Starfall)

Quote

In my estimates, the Battle of the Bells happened in the middle of January, and the Battle at Trident in the middle of July, or even a bit later (the Sack of KL happened in late late August). The pause between those battles was approximately 5-6 months. And all that you mentioned above, happened in those months.

After the Battle of the Bells, Aerys has sent Gerold Hightower after Rhaegar. I think, that maybe first he went from King's Landing to Harrenhall, to visit House Whent (because amongst Rhaegar's companions, when he kidnapped Lyanna, was Oswell Whent, so first Gerold checked whether they are at Harrenhall), and after that he went to Starfall. That's where he foud Rhaegar. After that Gerold, Rhaegar, Lyanna and other went north thru Dornish Mountains. While they were going thru Prince's Pass, they realised that Lyanna is pregnant, so not to endanger life of their baby, they decided that Lyanna will stay at the Tower of Joy, with three Kingsguards, and Rhaegar continued his journey. It takes approximately 75 days to go from King's Landing to Starfall, thru the hardest roure, thru unblazed mountain passes, off roads.

After the Battle of the Bells, Aerys has sent Darry and Selmy to gather remnants of Targaryen army near Stoney Sept. Which doesn't mean, that Aerys couldn't have simultaneously send Gerold to find Rhaegar.

Distance between Harrenhall and KL is 370 miles, there and back with average speed on level road 40 miles per day, 18,2 days for Gerold to get there and back. Let's say 21 day, with inclusion of rest after he got to Harrenhall, and when he returned to KL. Then 75 days to Starfall, and 75 days from Starfall to KL. 21 + 75 + 75 = 171 days. If Battle of the Bells happened 15 January, and after that loss Aerys has sent Gerold after Rhaegar, then he arrived there 171 days after 15 January, and that's 4 July <- add to this day several more weeks for Rhaegar and Lyanna to prepare for their journey north, for Rhaegar to part with Lyanna at the Tower of Joy, for Rhaegar to prepare for the battle after his arrival to KL, and how much time it takes to go from KL to Trident, is already included in my calculations. So the Battle at Trident happened in early August or late July.

Darry and Selmy went to Stoney Sept sometime after second part of January, so they had plenty of time to gather Targaryen forces from there, and then to return to KL, to later depart from there with Rhaegar.

7

Quote

After Lyanna's kidnapping, her brother and father went to KL, were executed there, Jon Arryn started rebellion, Robert arrived from Gulltown to Storm's End, from there went to Summerhall, where he fought for ONE! day, then he went from there to Ashford, where he sort of lost to Randyll Tarly, and then went to Stoney Sept. The end of the year. Gulltown, Summerhall, Ashford - those battles happened in span of late October, November and December.

8

Quote

Jon Arryn and Robert took with them Arryn's troops stationed at The Eyrie, maybe on the way to Gulltown gathered some other Houses, and broke into Gulltown. Then Robert took a ship and departed to Storm's End. And Jon Arryn stayed in The Vale, gathering his other people from all over his lands, and then probably also transported them via sea-route to Trident/Crossroads. So it took Robert and Jon just a few days to prepare for going into Gulltown. Then Robert arrived home, and after he found out, that several of his lords are plotting to go against him, and support Targaryens, he gathered his people, and went to fight with those lords to Summerhall. He won there, but lost at Ashford, because the other side had more troops. And then the year ended.

And Stannis was left behind at Storm's End with small garrizon. There was too little of them, to fight back against Tyrell troops. And nobody came to help them, from nearest castles, which means, that Robert took away troops from those castles, while he went to Summerhall. After Robert left, Stannis didn't had enough time to prepare for the war, when Mace arrived there with his army. So it happened not too long after Robert's departure. Everything was happening fast. Especially in the beginning of Rebellion. It was later, in 283, that they had a few months pause between battles, thanks to Ned and Jon's troops defeating Targaryen forces at Stoney Sept. And loyalist also waited for Rhaegar's return. And rebells went to Riverrun for the wedding. So in 283 on both sides things slowed down considerably. Through prior that, first part of Rebellion, happened in a blur.

I calculated, that even if northern bannermen departed from furthest castles of The North, first marched to Winterfell, and only from there to Trident, then even on foot, they would have arrived there in time for Trident's battle.

2135 miles Karhold - Winterfell - Trident.

2135 / 3,1 miles per hour / 5 hours of marching per day = 138 days.

From my previous calculation, it took Ned 50 days to get from The Eyrie to Winterfell, he departed on 14 October. Then let's say the infantry was preparing for 30 days after Ned's arrival, and then marched towards Trident (though Ned himself, with cavalry went ahead to save Robert at Stoney Sept).

14 October + 50 + 30 + 138 = 218 days, then they would have arrived to Trident in the middle of May. And in my calculations, the battle at Trident happened in late July or even in August. Thus there's plenty of additional time for other preparations and delays if needed, and even if troops will go on foot, they will still be on time for the major battle.

9 (Correction to this one - Jon's birthday is September 23 not 25.)

Quote

Ned's and Robert's plan was double wedding to Tully sisters.

For the wedding they went to Riverrun <- Stoney Sept - 235 miles thru hilly grasslands, 235/25 = 9,4 days.

Then from there to Trident, by River Road, 335 miles, 335/40 = 8,4 days.

From Trident Ned went to KL - 435 miles/40 = 10,9 days.

From KL to Storm's End - same 435 miles = 10,9 days.

From Storm's End to the Tower of Joy - either 570 miles thru land-route (570/20 = 28,5 days), or by sea-route (either around Stormlands 1045 nautical miles, 1045/5/24 = 8,7 days + 35 more miles thru untrailed marshlands, 10 miles per day, 3,5 days; 12,2 days in total; or 170 miles to Grandview, 170/20 = 8,5 days, from there by ship or boat 495 nautical miles, 495/5/24 = 4,13 days + 3,5 days thru mountains; 16,13 days in total).

So it took Ned approximately 2-4 weeks (12-29 days) to get to the Tower of Joy, depending on the route he took.

Now let's add together all those travel days, starting from Rickard departing from Riverrun, and ending with Ned finding Lyanna:

Riverrun to KL - 19,25 days

The Eyrie to Gulltown - 18,5 days

Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days

Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 9,4 days

Riverrun to Trident - 8,4 days

Trident to KL - 10,9 days

KL to Storm's End - 10,9 days

Storm's End to Tower of Joy - 12-29 days.

148-178 days. 5-6 months of Rebellion's duration was spent on traveling from one location to another. Obviously, that we also need to add here pauses between battles, and time for various preparations, like raising armies and calling banners.

I previously went thru another calculation, that also included other information, aside from distances and travel time. Based on that calculation, the Rebellion lasted 9,5-10 months. Beginning from 15 October 282 (when Jon Arryn called his bannermen) and ending in early September of 283 (the Sack of KL happened on August 25 or a few days later).

Lyanna was kidnapped on 23 September.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between December 23 and 24.

Rhaegar and Lyanna had two months of time, in which they could have went either via land-route from Harrenhall to Starfall (1300 miles thru various terrains, first 800 miles they could have went by King's Road and then Roseroad, 800/40 =  20 days, and then thru mountains 500/20 = 25 days, 45 days + resting time). Or they could have went all the way by Roseroad to Oldtown, where they got married in a Starry Sept, and from there took a ship to Starfall. Or could be that Rhaegar, prior kidnapping Lyanna, sailed on one of his ships thru Blackwater Rush to God's Eye. From there on horse to King's Road, where he kidnapped Lyanna. And then they went thru the river, to Blackwater Bay. And from there sailed to Oldtown, where they got married. And then to Starfall, where they were staying, untill Gerold Hightower arrived there, to take Rhaegar back to KL.

If Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, then he was born on 25 September 283. Ned arrived to Tower of Joy 23-30 days after the Sack (which happened in interval between August 26 - September 2). Dany was conceived a few days prior the Sack of KL, on August 24 or 25, and was born 40 weeks later, either on May 31 or June 1. Which makes Jon 8 or so months older than Dany.

Though all this calculations are approximate.

 

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

On 2/7/2021 at 8:22 AM, Megorova said:

The Rebellion officially ended after the lifting of Storm's End's siege. But in the south there still were ongoing small battles, raids, etc. Cat didn't knew where Ned was at that time. She thought that he also went there, to the south. And he did, though not to participate in battles, but to find Lyanna.

We don't know the exact time Robb was born relative to the events in the war, or what exactly Cat had in mind. My point is that it's very difficult for me to think this time is supposed to be significantly after the ToJ events, if it is at all. Jon being 2 months older than Robb is tough to fit into that timeline IMO, unless Lyanna had an exceptionally long post-partum illness.

On 2/7/2021 at 8:22 AM, Megorova said:

There's that quote what Cersei said: "Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned?" Cersei doesn't know how old is Jon, she made assumption that Jon was conceived by Ned when Ned went to Dorne after the lifting of SE's siege.

I agree that Cersei doesn't know shit. Her suggesting the Dornish peasant isn't evidence of Jon being younger any more than Ashara rumors are evidence he's older.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If Jon was born around the time of the TOJ fight, then I agree, he could not have been conceived prior to Lyanna's "disappearance".  I think it's more likely, however,  that Jon was born shortly before the Battle of the Trident.  Once again, there is an assumption that Lyanna died at the tower of joy shortly after giving birth to Jon.  I don't agree with that assumption.  

How much of a gap do you put between those events? On what basis? Do you think Lyanna's death was due to childbirth complications or that she died for some other reason? Maternal mortality after childbirth didn't always happen right away, but several months would definitely be unusual. In any case, Ned describes the Sack of King's Landing as taking place almost a year into the war, and that wasn't long after the Trident. And before the war began, you have to factor in the time Brandon was held captive, his travel to KL, his travel from Riverrun to wherever he was when he got the news, his time at Riverrun, and whatever amount of time passed between the hypothetical conception with Lyanna and his arrival at Riverrun (unless you're trying to argue that he somehow impregnated her sometime during those events I listed). Even if with Jon being born a while before the Trident, I struggle to find 9 months there.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But more mundanely, as for the timeline, I think we first have to have a handle on when the Battle of the Bells was fought, and the earliest time period that Ned could have arrived with his army in the North.  Forgetting all of the travel and battles that Robert fought before the Battle of the Bells, let's take a look at Ned's travels.  He first had to make his way through the Mountains of the Fingers and travel by small boat to the Sisters and then to White Harbor.  He then needs to make his way up to Winterfell.  An army then has to assemble at Winterfell many of which must have come from some of the outskirts of the North, such as the Umbers, and apparently some of the Mountain Clans.  This army then has to make it's way from Winterfell to the Stoney Sept.  We're talking about travels and events that should have taken a good number of months.  I think on the conservative side, the earliest the Battle of Bells could have been fought is about halfway through the start of the war.  So I'd guess 5 to 6 months at least.  

I think trying to calculate realistic passage of time based on the distances involved is a fool's errand, personally. I don't think Martin approaches timelines with that level of detail, and he's even explicitly stated that he tries to keep stuff like that vague so he doesn't have readers telling him Ned couldn't have done X in the Y amount of time Martin says he did. And if Catelyn gets pregnant 6 months into the war, and let's say the sack happens 11 months into the war, that puts Robb's birth at 4 months after the sack. I don't think that makes sense with Catelyn's recollections. And if you want to stretch Ned's post-sack adventures as taking that much time, that makes Lyanna's death so long after Jon's birth all the more questionable.

By your own admission, there's not really any direct evidence of a B + L romance. Does it not strike as more likely at that point that R + L is the answer instead?

[Muffin King]

Ashara Dayne is simply a bit of a mystery and distraction from R+L=J, that's it.