Heresy 234 and the coming of Winter

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, Black Crow said:

Indeed, but my point here is that they may have stolen the sigil, but not the substance of the link

Assuming there was a substance to the link in the first place.  I'm not convinced that either the Starks or the Lannisters or the Casterlies for that matter were ever historically skinchangers.  I think it's more likely that they just adopted the sigil of the biggest apex predator in their territory.

[Black Crow]

It need not necessarily be a matter of skinchanging, but if Leaf was including the Lions among the Old Races then the links between certain old families and their familiars may have been a part of the Pact, and the uniqueness of the retention of a paring between Starks and Direwolves may reflect the breaking down of the Pact.

[Tucu]

The roles of bastards or seeds or outsiders in keeping and spreading the magic bloodline seems to be key. We have the old tales of Heroes and Gods spreading their seeds even introducing the First Men version of the First Night. For example we have Lann the Clever as a bastard of Florys the Fox that in some versions introduces the lions in the Rock and keeps the daughters of the Casterlys

In the books we have Jon as a likely bastard of Lyanna the Wolf that manages to convince the Lord of Winterfell to "invite" the direwolves back into Winterfell. His link to the direwolves might not be the strongest but it was the earliest.

If this is a new Age of Heroes we might see the end of many of the old houses. There is a good chance that there will not be another Stark of Winterfell but new lines rising from the remains.

[LynnS]

18 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don’t disagree with you, assuming that we only have 1 or 2 books left to go, I doubt we have enough time for anyone to successfully “wed” with a dragon, who’s name isn’t Danaerys Targaryen.

Unless Aegon is a dragon after all.  Even so, his mother is not a dragon.  Although, I do think he will survive to wed Sansa in the end, and join the lands of ice and fire.

[LynnS]

Why did Rhaegar change his mind?  What did he read?

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Daenerys I

"I would hear it from you."

"As you wish," said Whitebeard. "As a young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early that men said Queen Rhaella must have swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father's knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.'"

Did Rhaegar believe he was the PWIP at this point?  Did he read the story of Azhor Ahai and think he was destined to be the warrior of fire?  Why did he change his mind and say that Aegon was the PWIP?  Does it have something to do with the return of the dragons... waking dragons from stone, the failure at Summerhall.

[Black Crow]

17 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Why did Rhaegar change his mind?  What did he read?

Did Rhaegar believe he was the PWIP at this point?  Did he read the story of Azhor Ahai and think he was destined to be the warrior of fire?  Why did he change his mind and say that Aegon was the PWIP?  Does it have something to do with the return of the dragons... waking dragons from stone, the failure at Summerhall.

Summerhall is a distinct possibility - although not necessarily. Looking at things sensibly, he read something that said [a] he was qualified, and   this would be confirmed by an event or sign. A failure to hatch dragons would be a logical point at which to conclude that while the bloodline was right, it wasn't he.

My only reservation about the failure at Summerhall, is that the prophecy appears to pre-date the decline of the dragons.

[Black Crow]

14 hours ago, Tucu said:

The roles of bastards or seeds or outsiders in keeping and spreading the magic bloodline seems to be key. We have the old tales of Heroes and Gods spreading their seeds even introducing the First Men version of the First Night. For example we have Lann the Clever as a bastard of Florys the Fox that in some versions introduces the lions in the Rock and keeps the daughters of the Casterlys

In the books we have Jon as a likely bastard of Lyanna the Wolf that manages to convince the Lord of Winterfell to "invite" the direwolves back into Winterfell. His link to the direwolves might not be the strongest but it was the earliest.

If this is a new Age of Heroes we might see the end of many of the old houses. There is a good chance that there will not be another Stark of Winterfell but new lines rising from the remains.

I think that the Starks are already the last magical bloodline - there are other old houses, but they have lost their magic, or at least their old powers. The Stark survival is due to the return of their Direwolves, while the Targaryens have simultaneously recovered their dragons. The last of the Blackwoods isn't going anywhere and none of the other houses can boast a familiar. 

[LynnS]

Pyatt Pree's curses... I assume he is not just swearing at Dany:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV

When she spilled out into the sun, the bright light made her stumble. Pyat Pree was gibbering in some unknown tongue and hopping from one foot to the other. When Dany looked behind her, she saw thin tendrils of smoke forcing their way through cracks in the ancient stone walls of the Palace of Dust, and rising from between the black tiles of the roof.

Howling curses, Pyat Pree drew a knife and danced toward her, but Drogon flew at his face. Then she heard the crack of Jhogo's whip, and never was a sound so sweet. The knife went flying, and an instant later Rakharo was slamming Pyat to the ground. Ser Jorah Mormont knelt beside Dany in the cool green grass and put his arm around her shoulder.

What form would a curse take:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys V

Dany had laughed when he told her. "Was it not you who told me warlocks were no more than old soldiers, vainly boasting of forgotten deeds and lost prowess?"

Xaro looked troubled. "And so it was, then. But now? I am less certain. It is said that the glass candles are burning in the house of Urrathon Night-Walker, that have not burned in a hundred years. Ghost grass grows in the Garden of Gehane, phantom tortoises have been seen carrying messages between the windowless houses on Warlock's Way, and all the rats in the city are chewing off their tails. The wife of Mathos Mallarawan, who once mocked a warlock's drab moth-eaten robe, has gone mad and will wear no clothes at all. Even fresh-washed silks make her feel as though a thousand insects were crawling on her skin. And Blind Sybassion the Eater of Eyes can see again, or so his slaves do swear. A man must wonder." He sighed. "These are strange times in Qarth. And strange times are bad for trade. It grieves me to say so, yet it might be best if you left Qarth entirely, and sooner rather than later." Xaro stroked her fingers reassuringly. "You need not go alone, though. You have seen dark visions in the Palace of Dust, but Xaro has dreamed brighter dreams. I see you happily abed, with our child at your breast. Sail with me around the Jade Sea, and we can yet make it so! It is not too late. Give me a son, my sweet song of joy!"

 

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys III

"The Dothraki sea," Ser Jorah Mormont said as he reined to a halt beside her on the top of the ridge. Beneath them, the plain stretched out immense and empty, a vast flat expanse that reached to the distant horizon and beyond. It was a sea, Dany thought. Past here, there were no hills, no mountains, no trees nor cities nor roads, only the endless grasses, the tall blades rippling like waves when the winds blew. "It's so green," she said.

"Here and now," Ser Jorah agreed. "You ought to see it when it blooms, all dark red flowers from horizon to horizon, like a sea of blood. Come the dry season, and the world turns the color of old bronze. And this is only hranna, child. There are a hundred kinds of grass out there, grasses as yellow as lemon and as dark as indigo, blue grasses and orange grasses and grasses like rainbows. Down in the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai, they say there are oceans of ghost grass, taller than a man on horseback with stalks as pale as milkglass. It murders all other grass and glows in the dark with the spirits of the damned. The Dothraki claim that someday ghost grass will cover the entire world, and then all life will end."

 

The Dothraki can't survive without their horses.  A blight on the Dothraki Sea would force Dany across the Narrow Sea.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Summerhall is a distinct possibility - although not necessarily. Looking at things sensibly, he read something that said [a] he was qualified, and   this would be confirmed by an event or sign. A failure to hatch dragons would be a logical point at which to conclude that while the bloodline was right, it wasn't he.

My only reservation about the failure at Summerhall, is that the prophecy appears to pre-date the decline of the dragons.

Yes, the comet is the key.  At first I thought Mel was spinning links between AA and the comet; but comets have periodic orbits and I think it features in the story of AA.  It's appearance being described a a crack in the moon, similar to Catelyn's description of the comet, like a scratch upon the face of god..  

So it's appearance would coincide with AA's forging of Lightbringer.  How to date the event is a good question.  The arrival of the Andals in Westeros might provide a clue since they mark their arrival by carving the bleeding star into the rocks at first landing place - the Fingers.  There seems to have been waves of Andal invasions.   If the first invasion was 6,000 years past; then the comet's previous appearance would be 12,000 years past.  Before the Wall and the Hammer of the Waters.  At the end of the last ice age when land bridges existed across the Narrow Sea.

With no impediments, the Others would be able to invade Essos.  And so we get the story of AA slaying a beast.  The description of which is much the same as plinking a WW with obsidian.  But I don't think AA was the last hero because his sword wouldn't have broken. Mel's belief that he ended the long night seems coincident to the Last Hero ending the long night.  It does seem to me that the fight was also taking place on another front in Essos.  And the reason why Mel tells Jon that the Wall is as much her place as it is his.  In other words, it's also her fight. 

 

[Frey family reunion]

5 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Summerhall is a distinct possibility - although not necessarily. Looking at things sensibly, he read something that said [a] he was qualified, and   this would be confirmed by an event or sign. A failure to hatch dragons would be a logical point at which to conclude that while the bloodline was right, it wasn't he.

My only reservation about the failure at Summerhall, is that the prophecy appears to pre-date the decline of the dragons.

It probably wasn't just Summerhall because Summerhall was a past event when both Rhaegar and Aemon agreed that Rhaegar was TPTWP.  

However a failure to hatch dragons at Summerhall probably did later contribute to Rhaegar's doubt that he fulfilled the role, since it appears that Rhaegar may have been the guest of honor at Summerhall.

And yes, TPTWP couldn't have been about the return of dragons to the world, because the prophecy first came about at least a thousand years ago, when dragons and their riders were ruling the world.

From what I gather from Aemon, TPTWP prophecy seems to involve a messianic figure to help fight the War for the Dawn, and in some way dragons must be involved as well.  TPTWP prophecy also seems to have been influenced a bit about the prophecies involving the return of Azor Ahai.

I've argued this before in the past, and I'm still of the opinion that it's the most likely scenario.  That TPTWP was a Rhoynish prophecy brought about during their downfall from their war with the Valyrians.  That TPTWP prophecy was then passed down to House Targaryen when they married into House Martell. 

Which would perhaps explain why Rhaegar believed that his son Aegon with Elia Martell was the actual inheritor of the , umm "crown".  He's a prince on both sides of his family.

[Frey family reunion]

21 hours ago, Black Crow said:

It need not necessarily be a matter of skinchanging, but if Leaf was including the Lions among the Old Races then the links between certain old families and their familiars may have been a part of the Pact, and the uniqueness of the retention of a paring between Starks and Direwolves may reflect the breaking down of the Pact.

From what I gather, the direwolves and cave lions and the like were allies of the COTF (or perhaps thralls) as opposed to allies of any of the First Men.  The taboo of being a warg in Westeros makes it seem unlikely that any of the Houses would have actively cultivated such a connection, unless it was kept extremely hidden.  And it seems that there would have been tales of this.  But the only tales dealing with Wargs and House Stark is House Stark going to war with wargs who overstepped their bounds.

[LynnS]

8 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I've argued this before in the past, and I'm still of the opinion that it's the most likely scenario.  That TPTWP was a Rhoynish prophecy brought about during their downfall from their war with the Valyrians.  That TPTWP prophecy was then passed down to House Targaryen when they married into House Martell. 

I go back to GRRM's SSM on Noah and Gilgamesh.  Gilgamesh is the pre-curser for the flood story and so I think the story of AA is remembered by different cultures in different ways.  I do think the prophecy is about the return of dragons and this is associated with AA and the comet.  I think it's the founding story for the Red religion since it appears that AA and Nissa Nissa were a priest and priestess of a pre-curser religion and the holy fire used to forge the sword was dragon fire.  I would go so far as to say that Nissa Nissa was a bride of fire and the mother of dragons as well.

We get the story from Asshai from Irri about the moon cracking with dragons pouring forth.  The bride of fire and mother of dragons does that.

Think Mel is not only trying to re-create the legend or conditions for AA's return, but she herself is a stand-in for Nissa Nissa.  Although she isn't going to transform Stannis into a fiery priest and he doesn't have a valyrian steel sword.  She won't be waking dragons from stone.

At any rate,  I don't think there will be an AA figure as we know it.  AA didn't put an end to the soul of ice.  That's what has to happen this time around.  I'm anticipating a twist on the confrontation between the soul of ice and the soul of fire. 

 

[LynnS]

Then there is another part of this prophecy which Mel kluges into the AA prophesy.  Born in a place of salt and smoke and/or reborn amidst salt tears and smoke.

That fits for Dany born on Dragonstone and then the salt tears she sheds in her smoke filled tent.  It also fits for Jon, if he was born on the Quiet Isle on the salt pans and smoking bee hives, for making mead..  Then we have Bran tasting a salty tear when he passes through the black Gate and Jon's smoking blood in the now. 

I think the salt and smoke portion is a missing piece of the PWIP prophecy.

[Black Crow]

37 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Then there is another part of this prophecy which Mel kluges into the AA prophesy.  Born in a place of salt and smoke and/or reborn amidst salt tears and smoke.

That fits for Dany born on Dragonstone and then the salt tears she sheds in her smoke filled tent.  It also fits for Jon, if he was born on the Quiet Isle on the salt pans and smoking bee hives, for making mead..  Then we have Bran tasting a salty tear when he passes through the black Gate and Jon's smoking blood in the now. 

I think the salt and smoke portion is a missing piece of the PWIP prophecy.

Not necessarily. It could be a later red herring:

"So then the hero is going to come along... how will we know its him, Dad?"

"ah well, he'll have a big sword won't he ? "

"but they all do, you can't say you're a hero without waving a sword. So how do we know its him"

"Well its a magic sword, aint it"

"but how do we know that"

"it'll be a flaming sword."

"wot, like that sword swallower came last summer fair"

Nah, that were only a mummer. This'll be a proper magic sword made of fire... with smoke and all"

Sounds a bit salty to me" 

[Tucu]

9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I think that the Starks are already the last magical bloodline - there are other old houses, but they have lost their magic, or at least their old powers. The Stark survival is due to the return of their Direwolves, while the Targaryens have simultaneously recovered their dragons. The last of the Blackwoods isn't going anywhere and none of the other houses can boast a familiar. 

I see this as multiple dormant magical bloodlines with the Starks among the first to re-awake and disperse. The Blackwoods might be the last active of the previous era and they have recently passed their blood to the Starks and Targs.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Tucu said:

I see this as multiple dormant magical bloodlines with the Starks among the first to re-awake and disperse. The Blackwoods might be the last active of the previous era and they have recently passed their blood to the Starks and Targs.

I think of all the old houses who may have cultivated a "warg" or "skinchanging" bloodline, the Blackwoods are my primary suspect.  Lord Blackwood's very real concern about his only daughter possible being used as a royal ward/hostage to the Iron Throne may play into that. 

[Frey family reunion]

5 hours ago, LynnS said:

Then there is another part of this prophecy which Mel kluges into the AA prophesy.  Born in a place of salt and smoke and/or reborn amidst salt tears and smoke.

That fits for Dany born on Dragonstone and then the salt tears she sheds in her smoke filled tent.  It also fits for Jon, if he was born on the Quiet Isle on the salt pans and smoking bee hives, for making mead..  Then we have Bran tasting a salty tear when he passes through the black Gate and Jon's smoking blood in the now. 

I think the salt and smoke portion is a missing piece of the PWIP prophecy.

I go back and forth on the whole prohecy angle.  Either there is something to it or there isn't.  The issue for me, even if these prophecies are suspect, is that they may still come into play if the necessary actors decide they have to put their thumb on the scale to bring about said prophecies.

[Tucu]

52 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I go back and forth on the whole prohecy angle.  Either there is something to it or there isn't.  The issue for me, even if these prophecies are suspect, is that they may still come into play if the necessary actors decide they have to put their thumb on the scale to bring about said prophecies.

I would say that old prophecies are basically syncretic cargo cults.  Someone has visions (or memories) of the forging of a Hero then passes the tale; with time the tales of the forging of many Heroes start to merge; then prophets start telling people how their preferred Hero is going to be reborn.

Better to look at how the new generation is being forged than try to guess which one is Azor Ahai and which one is Spotted Pate.

[LynnS]

Mood: Not Hopeful.

Reflections on a Bad Year | Not a Blog (georgerrmartin.com)

[LynnS]

Reading Fire Cannot Kill A Dragon.  I find it interesting.  I'm the type who likes listening to commentaries.  There are some pretty amusing anecdotes. 

Example:  In a scene where they used a carcass of a dead deer; cast and crew were sent gagging and vomiting when the creature was opened.  And in the original pilot, Dany's Silver which was supposed to be a filly, turned out to be a colt.  That was discovered during Drogo/Dany's first intimate scene and the horse was aroused.