Baelor vs Bloodraven who was right?

[The Bard of Banefort]

The most effective strategy would appear to be to speak softly and carry a big stick.

In this series, mercy seems to be most effective when it’s unexpected, which is something Jaehaerys I did a lot with great success. This isn’t totally unprecedented in our world either. One of the reasons why the Japanese held out as long as they did during WWII is because—bombings aside—they thought that if they surrendered, the Americans would storm the shores and kill all of them. When that didn’t happen, they were a lot more willing to cooperate. 
 

The problem is, you need a really big stick. Jaehaerys had dragons (and more of a spine than his father) so he could afford to be merciful. Same with Aegon I. Bobby B was able to keep the Iron Islands at bay for 15 years by being merciful, but once he was gone, no one was strong enough to keep them in line (plus, y’know, there was that whole civil war thing). Daeron’s legacy rested on Baelor, Maekar, and Bloodraven, but Baelor died and the other two had a falling out.

For what it’s worth, Bloodraven’s actions only seemed to work in the short-term. He was able to squash the second and presumably third rebellions, but he didn’t prevent them from happening. He might have been better off trying to give the other lords reasons not to rebel instead.

If anything, it would appear that in ASOIAF, marriage alliances work better than anything else. Maybe Bloodraven should have finally given up on Shiera and married a Bracken instead. 

[The Jingo]

There is absolutely no question that Breakspear was right and Bloodraven was wrong. 

Breakspear's clemency won him so much admiration because he recognized that the rebels had legitimate reasons to rebel, and he personally addressed those reasons.

The First Blackfyre Rebellion had so much support because of how badly Baelor mismanaged the Dorne situation, followed up by Daeron doubling down on that policy.

Tens of thousands of men - the fathers, brothers, and sons - of loyal Targaryen subjects marched for the Young Dragon. They fought by his side and with a lot of blood, sweat, and tears won Dorne together.

Then Dorne murdered Daeron under a peace banner and Baelor proceeded to kiss their asses so much they should have called him Baelor the Brownnose. It was the ultimate betrayal of not only Daeron but of the people that fought and died for the Targaryen dynasty.

Breakspear as a half Martell was basically the living embodiment of that grievance, and by showing mercy he buried the hatchet and strengthened the kingdom.

Bloodraven on the other hand was an irredeemable fool that did so much damage to the Targaryen dynasty that Aegon IV should have strangled him in the crib. He had such a hateboner for Bittersteel that he went full on totalitarian moron and almost let the Greyjoys destroy the Seven Kingdoms with his negligence. Then he doubled down and ruined the prestige of the dynasty by murdering people after promising safe conduct. His rampant idiocy is probably the third or fourth largest reason for the overthrow of the dynasty.

 

 

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

2 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

Breakspear as a half Martell was basically the living embodiment of that grievance, and by showing mercy he buried the hatchet and strengthened the kingdom.

Bloodraven on the other hand was an irredeemable fool that did so much damage to the Targaryen dynasty that Aegon IV should have strangled him in the crib. He had such a hateboner for Bittersteel that he went full on totalitarian moron and almost let the Greyjoys destroy the Seven Kingdoms with his negligence. Then he doubled down and ruined the prestige of the dynasty by murdering people after promising safe conduct. His rampant idiocy is probably the third or fourth largest reason for the overthrow of the dynasty.

The Greyjoy threat wasn't even that bad. Dagon only threatened the Western shores of the Westerlands and the North. He was also taken care of pretty easily and the text does imply that Bloodraven stepped in to take care of Dagon. He hates Bittersteel so much but he doesn't lead an invasion of Tyrosh to destroy the Blackfyres? Also, how does Bloodraven influence the overthrow of the Targs?

[The Jingo]

8 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

The Greyjoy threat wasn't even that bad. Dagon only threatened the Western shores of the Westerlands and the North. He was also taken care of pretty easily and the text does imply that Bloodraven stepped in to take care of Dagon. 

One of the most basic functions of a state is to maintain and enforce its territorial integrity. Essentially, the King must keep the King's Peace. If he doesn't, then he lacks legitimacy as a monarch and has no right to rule anything. 

Whether you think Dagon Greyjoy's reaving was "not that bad" doesn't matter - if you have one Lord Paramount in what amounts to rebellion, flouting the laws and making low key war on at least three other Lord Paramounts, you have a duty to respond. If you're not able to do that, you're a weak monarch. And if you're not willing to do that, you're no monarch at all. 

I will also note that for not being "that bad", there were people in King's Landing preaching on street corners and calling for the overthrow of King Aerys for this. 

When Dagon Greyjoy sailed forth, King Aerys and Bloodraven had an obligation to respond to this. Instead Aerys continued his affair with books while Bloodraven lurked in the Tower of the Hand with his thumb up his ass seething impotently over the possibility of a Blackfyre Rebellion. And because he did this Dagon became a legend that people still talk about even into the modern era and cite old tales of his predations. 

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He hates Bittersteel so much but he doesn't lead an invasion of Tyrosh to destroy the Blackfyres?

Because that would trigger a war with multiple Free Cities and probably lead to them putting the Blackfyres on the Throne. The Golden Company alone would not be able to militarily defeat the Seven Kingdoms. But the Golden Company backed by three to five Free Cities probably could. 

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Also, how does Bloodraven influence the overthrow of the Targs?

The overthrow of the Targaryen dynasty by the rebels during Robert's Rebellion wasn't a one off issue. It was the result of generations of discontent.

Bloodraven established the Targaryen dynasty on the Iron Throne as being weak and indecisive, unwilling to defend the realm in a time of crisis while obsessing over his imagined personal enemies. He also established the Iron Throne as a dishonourable institution, given how he murdered a Blackfyre heir (his own kinsman) after promising the man safe conduct for the Great Council. Aegon V (to his credit, one of the few good things he did), did strip Bloodraven of office and send him to take the Black, but people still remember. 

None of the kings after Bloodraven took any real steps to earn back the loyalty of the realm that he lost. Aerys did nothing while Bloodraven ruled, Maekar sulked at Summerhall while Aerys ruled and then died almost instantly after taking the crown. Aegon V alienated all the houses of the realm even further because he loved dirty peasants just that much, while Aegon's children all had a hand in spurning the Great Houses directly with their marriage choices. Jaehaerys survived the last Blackfyre Rebellion by hiding in King's Landing and then died almost instantly after. Then Aerys took the Throne and started molesting other people's wives and burning men alive. 

The rot begins with Bloodraven and grows through the generations, and become terminal during the reign of King Aerys II. It's not a coincidence that multiple Lords Paramount allied by marriage during the generation of Robert and Ned (an almost unheard of occurrence). They either wanted to overthrow the dynasty to begin with, or they intended to form a unified political block to force the Targaryens to abide by some concessions to the realm they misruled. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

My head canon is that Egg, after seeing how bad the reaving is, will march down to Summerhall/wherever and convince Maekar to rally his forces. Someone needs to give him a good kick in the pants.

[Mourning Star]

23 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

the text does imply that Bloodraven stepped in to take care of Dagon

When does this happen?

If you mean this:

"He bearded the lion in his den and tied the direwolf's tail in knots, but even Dagon could not defeat the dragons. But I shall make the dragon queen mine own. She will share my bed and bear me many mighty sons."

Then that is a pretty wild leap... especially since it says the "dragons", plural.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Example 1: The Ironborn do not sow. Balon wants to be king.  Losing didn't change his philosophy.  Follow Bloodraven's prescription and destroy the Greyjoys. 

Example 2: Walder Frey has no philosophical differences with the Lannisters.  He rebelled because he was forced to choose.  He chose badly.  Baelor's way works best for his case.  Forgive Walder and the Freys.

[The Jingo]

On 11/24/2021 at 6:07 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Example 1: The Ironborn do not sow. Balon wants to be king.  Losing didn't change his philosophy.  Follow Bloodraven's prescription and destroy the Greyjoys. 

Example 2: Walder Frey has no philosophical differences with the Lannisters.  He rebelled because he was forced to choose.  He chose badly.  Baelor's way works best for his case.  Forgive Walder and the Freys.

A corollary as far as the Freys go. 

They should have been treated with clemency before the Red Wedding, but after it they should have been wiped out to the last infant. This isn't me waving a hateboner for the Freys, even if I don't like them. But the Freys need to be wiped out the same way that Dorne should have been drowned in its own blood after the Young Dragon was murdered under a peace banner.

In order for a society to function and for wars to be settled in a way that actually brings peace, people need to adhere to the Rules. You don't kill people under guest rights. You don't kill people after proposing negotiations. You don't sign a peace treaty and then immediately violate its provisions. When this happens diplomatic trust is destroyed and the only solution to any sort of conflict is absolute total war that ends in the complete annihilation of the losing party.

If you cannot trust someone to keep their word (in a very basic sense, not in a Ned Stark muh honor way), then there are no avenues of conflict resolution except complete destruction.

When the Freys are not only allowed to live, but outright rewarded for breaking Guest Rights, it encourages nothing less than societal breakdown and anarchy. 

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

On 11/23/2021 at 6:48 PM, The Jingo said:

Bloodraven on the other hand was an irredeemable fool that did so much damage to the Targaryen dynasty that Aegon IV should have strangled him in the crib. He had such a hateboner for Bittersteel that he went full on totalitarian moron and almost let the Greyjoys destroy the Seven Kingdoms with his negligence. Then he doubled down and ruined the prestige of the dynasty by murdering people after promising safe conduct. His rampant idiocy is probably the third or fourth largest reason for the overthrow of the dynasty.

What? How is Bloodraven to blame for Aerys' actions? When did Dagon became a serious threat? Why he was a totalitarian?

[SeanF]

On 11/23/2021 at 6:31 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

The most effective strategy would appear to be to speak softly and carry a big stick.

In this series, mercy seems to be most effective when it’s unexpected, which is something Jaehaerys I did a lot with great success. This isn’t totally unprecedented in our world either. One of the reasons why the Japanese held out as long as they did during WWII is because—bombings aside—they thought that if they surrendered, the Americans would storm the shores and kill all of them. When that didn’t happen, they were a lot more willing to cooperate. 
 

The problem is, you need a really big stick. Jaehaerys had dragons (and more of a spine than his father) so he could afford to be merciful. Same with Aegon I. Bobby B was able to keep the Iron Islands at bay for 15 years by being merciful, but once he was gone, no one was strong enough to keep them in line (plus, y’know, there was that whole civil war thing). Daeron’s legacy rested on Baelor, Maekar, and Bloodraven, but Baelor died and the other two had a falling out.

For what it’s worth, Bloodraven’s actions only seemed to work in the short-term. He was able to squash the second and presumably third rebellions, but he didn’t prevent them from happening. He might have been better off trying to give the other lords reasons not to rebel instead.

If anything, it would appear that in ASOIAF, marriage alliances work better than anything else. Maybe Bloodraven should have finally given up on Shiera and married a Bracken instead. 

Jaehaerys benefitted from Maegor’s actions, too.  People knew very well what a dragon rider could do if provoked, and so they mostly kept the peace.

The Dornish invasion fleet disregarded that lesson, with predictable results.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

10 hours ago, The Jingo said:

A corollary as far as the Freys go. 

They should have been treated with clemency before the Red Wedding, but after it they should have been wiped out to the last infant. This isn't me waving a hateboner for the Freys, even if I don't like them. But the Freys need to be wiped out the same way that Dorne should have been drowned in its own blood after the Young Dragon was murdered under a peace banner.

In order for a society to function and for wars to be settled in a way that actually brings peace, people need to adhere to the Rules. You don't kill people under guest rights. You don't kill people after proposing negotiations. You don't sign a peace treaty and then immediately violate its provisions. When this happens diplomatic trust is destroyed and the only solution to any sort of conflict is absolute total war that ends in the complete annihilation of the losing party.

If you cannot trust someone to keep their word (in a very basic sense, not in a Ned Stark muh honor way), then there are no avenues of conflict resolution except complete destruction.

When the Freys are not only allowed to live, but outright rewarded for breaking Guest Rights, it encourages nothing less than societal breakdown and anarchy. 

Robb Stark broke a sworn oath.  Oaths are important to their society to function.  Perhaps a few of the Freys deserved punishment and prison time for their part in the red wedding but they absolutely do not deserve to be wiped out. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

16 minutes ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Robb Stark broke a sworn oath.  Oaths are important to their society to function.  Perhaps a few of the Freys deserved punishment and prison time for their part in the red wedding but they absolutely do not deserve to be wiped out. 

As did Walder and most of his male descendants far more many times and in far worse than Robb, plus the marriage pact was made under dishonorable circumstances. 

Walder and all of his sons, grandsons and great-grandsons who organised and willingly took part in the Red Wedding deserve torture and execution, and should not receive pardon for having proven that they are far too treacherous and unscrupulous to break so many and important vows and do something as abominable. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

As did Walder and most of his male descendants far more many times and in far worse than Robb, plus the marriage pact was made under dishonorable circumstances. 

Walder and all of his sons, grandsons and great-grandsons who organised and willingly took part in the Red Wedding deserve torture and execution, and should not receive pardon for having proven that they are far too treacherous and unscrupulous to break so many and important vows and do something as abominable. 

Hopefully when Big Walder becomes Lord of the Twins, he’ll prove to be more faithful and diplomatic than his grandsire. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

2 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Hopefully when Big Walder becomes Lord of the Twins, he’ll prove to be more faithful and diplomatic than his grandsire. 

That's if he survives the battle of Ice and if the victorious Stannis and/or northern forces, especially the northmen who lost family, friends and men at the Red Wedding spare him, which seems very unlikely to happen. And even if he survives it's far from sure that he'll be the one chosen to lead house Frey and the Twins. 

[The Jingo]

12 hours ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

What? How is Bloodraven to blame for Aerys' actions? When did Dagon became a serious threat? Why he was a totalitarian?

Because Bloodraven was the Hand of King Aerys and it was his responsibility to manage him?

It is only your personal perception that Dagon wasn't a "serious" threat. He was certainly a serious enough threat to the North, the West, and the Reach that people still tell stories of his savagery and violence a hundred years or so later. 

And he was a totalitarian because he had a unit of literal secret police going around arresting people and disappearing them for expressing non-approved sentiments. That's the origin of the thousand eyes and one phrase, it's not a reference to some flock of warg ravens, it's a reference to his legion of spies. 

7 hours ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Robb Stark broke a sworn oath.  Oaths are important to their society to function.  Perhaps a few of the Freys deserved punishment and prison time for their part in the red wedding but they absolutely do not deserve to be wiped out. 

Which justifies Walder renouncing fealty and going over to the Lannisters. It doesn't justify him breaking the laws of war and diplomacy. 

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

39 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

Because Bloodraven was the Hand of King Aerys and it was his responsibility to manage him?

How is Aerys I to blame for Robert's Rebellion?

40 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

And he was a totalitarian because he had a unit of literal secret police going around arresting people and disappearing them for expressing non-approved sentiments. That's the origin of the thousand eyes and one phrase, it's not a reference to some flock of warg ravens, it's a reference to his legion of spies. 

Arresting and disappearing for non approved sentiments? When did this happened? Certainly it did happened to traitors but not to people who just disagreed with him. And of course in times of civil war there will be spies everywhere. How else did the Crown can be sure who is loyal and who isn't?

[The Jingo]

57 minutes ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

How is Aerys I to blame for Robert's Rebellion?

By creating the root of dissent against the Targaryen monarchy. Aerys' did nothing during his tenure and let the realm burn, which made many lords very angry at the Targaryens. His successors all either died before they could fix things (Maekar, Jaehaerys II), or made things worse (Aegon V).

If Aerys hadn't been such a weak monarch, then it's unlikely that the lords of Westeros would have looked to each other for alliances and security rather than relying on the crown. Robert's Rebellion was only possible because of the marriage alliances of multiple Lords Paramount, and those alliances only existed because Aegon V and Aerys I gave the lords motivation to start thinking about them. 

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Arresting and disappearing for non approved sentiments? When did this happened? Certainly it did happened to traitors but not to people who just disagreed with him. And of course in times of civil war there will be spies everywhere. How else did the Crown can be sure who is loyal and who isn't?

When he became Hand of the King for Aerys I, Bloodraven had the Red Keep garrisoned by the Raven's Teeth. They functioned as his personal police force to suppress dissent against his rule. He recruited an enormous amount of spies, to the degree that people began to fear everyone they met was one of his spies. 

This guy was malicious as hell. He even proposed that he should  "keep [Egg] at court as my...guest" because not even Maekar was safe from Bloodraven's rampant paranoia. 

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

7 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

By creating the root of dissent against the Targaryen monarchy. Aerys' did nothing during his tenure and let the realm burn, which made many lords very angry at the Targaryens. His successors all either died before they could fix things (Maekar, Jaehaerys II), or made things worse (Aegon V).

If Aerys hadn't been such a weak monarch, then it's unlikely that the lords of Westeros would have looked to each other for alliances and security rather than relying on the crown. Robert's Rebellion was only possible because of the marriage alliances of multiple Lords Paramount, and those alliances only existed because Aegon V and Aerys I gave the lords motivation to start thinking about them. 

Daeron the Good was the one who made the Lords distrust the Crown. How is Bloodraven to blame for Aerys being weak? From what we have seen the Lords starting to feel bolder against the Targs started after the dragons died.Before Bloodraven was even born.

 

10 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

When he became Hand of the King for Aerys I, Bloodraven had the Red Keep garrisoned by the Raven's Teeth. They functioned as his personal police force to suppress dissent against his rule. He recruited an enormous amount of spies, to the degree that people began to fear everyone they met was one of his spies. 

In a time of civil war yes of course! How else he could know who is loyal and who is a traitor?

11 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

This guy was malicious as hell. He even proposed that he should  "keep [Egg] at court as my...guest" because not even Maekar was safe from Bloodraven's rampant paranoia. 

If he was so bad why did he allowed Egg to live? Or even Maekar? Why both of them were left alive?

[Mourning Star]

You can know a man by his friends, Egg.

-The Sworn Sword

Who were Bloodraven's friends?

14 hours ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

If he was so bad why did he allowed Egg to live? Or even Maekar? Why both of them were left alive?

Maekar was not left alive.

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

You can know a man by his friends, Egg.

-The Sworn Sword

Who were Bloodraven's friends?

They were the same people who chose to follow him at the Wall.