Covid-19 #25: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

[Caligula_K3]

I have a question for those of you who are more science-minded or up to date with research; I've looked in traditional media and can't find an explanation anywhere. Why have new COVID cases been dropping so dramatically across the USA and Canada in the past month? I get that we're past the Christmas bump, but the numbers are lower in many places than they've been in months, including in places that don't seem to have any social distancing measures in place, like Florida. It doesn't seem vaccination numbers are high enough (definitely not in Canada) to explain this, and kids have been back in school in most places for a month. Any ideas?

[Prue]

Hmm, maybe the new mutations aren't widespread enough yet? I think the numbers went down in the UK, too, before suddenly the mutation took over.

With the first SARS 10 years ago or so, the world was incredibly lucky that a dominant new mutation that was mostly harmless but spread far more effectively managed to stop the pandemic. But with the UK/South African/ Brazil mutation we don't seem to be that lucky.

[The Anti-Targ]

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I’ve been hearing stories that the vaccination rate in Israel has dropped off, and the country is hitting resistance among certain groups, like the ultra orthodox and younger people. This is after about 30% of the country has received two doses.

I had been meaning to mention that I have seen a number of commentators in the US fearing that after the 100 M mark is reached in the US the vaccination rate will drop off. Those fears seem to align with what Israel is experiencing. Part of the reasoning seems to be that Trump so poisoned the atmosphere there’s a very large group in the US that’s very resistant to any taking basic precautions like mask wearing and social distancing and that resistance will extend to the vaccine.

In Canada the flu vaccine is usually taken by 35% to 40% of the population, although it hit 42% in the 2018/19 season. I expect the uptake will be higher for the Covid vaccine, but who knows.

 

'Flu vaccination is different in that it's a less deadly disease than COVID-19 esp among the ages between 5 and 60. Many people who a fine with vaccination don't get the jab because there is no fear of 'flu. "I've had it before and I felt like shit for a few days but I got over it, so no worries". I have to admit to never getting the 'flu shot myself, because I couldn't be arsed, though I am now getting close to the age where can no longer afford to not be arsed. COVID-19 is a different beast.

I would be more inclined to look at measles vaccination rates as an indicator of willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccination

I would be shocked if the US vaccination rate tailed off at 100 million, surely anti-vaxx / COVID conspiracy/denialism isn't 2/3 of the USA. 80+ million people voted for Joe (some of whom will be anti-vaxxers for sure) and they will have kids, and perhaps adult family members who didn't vote. And several million Republican or bust people will have voted for Trump because he was the Republican candidate, but they are sufficiently connected to reality that they will get the jab. I hope the US is good for at least 65% vaccination coverage.

Also, the WHO investigating team in China has come out and said that COVID-19 is unlikely to have come from a lab: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/says-covid-19-unlikely-have-leaked-chinese-lab

Quote

WHO says Covid-19 unlikely to have leaked from Chinese lab

The coronavirus is unlikely to have leaked from a Chinese lab and is more likely to have jumped to humans from an animal, a World Health Organisation expert said today.

WHO food safety and animal diseases expert Peter Ben Embarek made the assessment at the end of a visit to the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where a team of scientists is investigating the possible origins of the coronavirus. The first cases were discovered in the city in December 2019.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology has collected extensive virus samples, leading to allegations that it may have caused the original outbreak by leaking the virus into the surrounding community. China has strongly rejected that possibility and has promoted other theories that the virus may have originated elsewhere. The team is considering several theories for how the disease first ended up in humans.

"Our initial findings suggest that the introduction through an intermediary host species is the most likely pathway and one that will require more studies and more specific, targeted research," Embarek said.
 

There will be people who read this and conclude the opposite, because the WHO group is being equivocal about it. And of course the other thing Trump did was poison people's minds against the WHO by suggesting it is a Chinese puppet. Was it Pompeo who claimed the State Dept had definitive proof it was from a lab, but that proof never came out?

Of course I can't say 100% it wasn't from a lab, since the investigating group says it's unlikely then I can't be more definitive than that. I expect it will ultimately be totally confirmed it's not lab origin, and this report is taking us in that direction. I would like China to be held to account for shit it actually did (or neglected to do) which helped this virus to become a pandemic, and more energy put into that. Holding China to account doesn't really mean much, their govt won't face any real consequences, however I hope there will be a WHO / UN report that specifically calls out the things it the Chinese govt actions that magnified the spread of the virus.

[Fragile Bird]

I think the restrictions in Canada have dropped numbers, if you aren’t exposed to the virus you can’t catch it. I really cut down going out since the end of December, and when I do go out the streets are empty at night (I try to grocery shop late at night). Also, wearing masks does help! Quebec, of course, has a curfew every night from 8:00 pm to 5:00 am.

All three worrisome variants have been found across the country, but they haven’t spread a lot. B117, the UK variant, has been found in the largest numbers, so health authorities everywhere have been warning about it.

The other thread title I considered was something about it being darkest before the dawn, and someone still might be moved to use it, depending on what happens in the next month or so. I’ve seen so many top people on tv warning the US might have yet another wave because more and more B117 is being detected.

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, Prue said:

Hmm, maybe the new mutations aren't widespread enough yet? I think the numbers went down in the UK, too, before suddenly the mutation took over.

With the first SARS 10 years ago or so, the world was incredibly lucky that a dominant new mutation that was mostly harmless but spread far more effectively managed to stop the pandemic. But with the UK/South African/ Brazil mutation we don't seem to be that lucky.

SARS made people sick very quickly and killed them quickly also, limiting how fast it could spread. There was no pandemic because it was localized to just a few places such as hospitals in the Toronto area.

[Clueless Northman]

I think I got the flu shot once - forgot exactly why - decades ago when I fas truly a young adult. Didn't bother with it for the next 15-20 years. Then got the flu in late spring, it fucked up my vacation plans totally. Since being bed-ridden with the flu for 4-5 days without being able to do much isn't of any use to me - skipping work due to illness is only worth it if I can read or play video games, otherwise it's just wasted time -, I now get it every year. I also noticed that the 1st shot a couple years ago wasn't noticeable, but the later ones I felt it a bit more - not sure if it's because my immune system goes "oh crap this shit comes again, let's get massive against it this time, boys", a bit like my 2nd hepatitis shot a month after the 1st one.

[The Anti-Targ]

41 minutes ago, maarsen said:

SARS made people sick very quickly and killed them quickly also, limiting how fast it could spread. There was no pandemic because it was localized to just a few places such as hospitals in the Toronto area.

The key thing about SARS1 and MERS was that people only became infectious once they got symptoms, so there was none of that asymptomatic / pre-symptomatic spread which makes spread of COVID-19 basically impossible to control without lockdowns of some description. Asymptomatic / pre-symptomatic spread is really the main reason SARS-CoV-2 became a major pandemic.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Caligula_K3 said:

I have a question for those of you who are more science-minded or up to date with research; I've looked in traditional media and can't find an explanation anywhere. Why have new COVID cases been dropping so dramatically across the USA and Canada in the past month? I get that we're past the Christmas bump, but the numbers are lower in many places than they've been in months, including in places that don't seem to have any social distancing measures in place, like Florida. It doesn't seem vaccination numbers are high enough (definitely not in Canada) to explain this, and kids have been back in school in most places for a month. Any ideas?

I can't say I know but, while restrictions are important, compliance is as important.  Even in places with few restrictions, if people behaved better once they got out of the holiday period, that should definitely help.  3k people dying every day is hard to ignore (even if people do).

[Derfel Cadarn]

Was given the AstraZeneca jab. Only side-effect beyond a slightly sore arm is that last night my whole body felt achy. 

[Heartofice]

19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Of course I can't say 100% it wasn't from a lab, since the investigating group says it's unlikely then I can't be more definitive than that. I expect it will ultimately be totally confirmed it's not lab origin, and this report is taking us in that direction. I would like China to be held to account for shit it actually did (or neglected to do) which helped this virus to become a pandemic, and more energy put into that. Holding China to account doesn't really mean much, their govt won't face any real consequences, however I hope there will be a WHO / UN report that specifically calls out the things it the Chinese govt actions that magnified the spread of the virus.

I think there is obviously a long way to go when it comes to discovering where the virus came from. From what I've seen though, the WHO have made very few conclusions as to it's origin, but one thing they are ruling out it seems is that it escaped from the lab in Wuhan. I have to admit that seems a little suspicious, that they were able to rule it out so easily, it being the most damning of all the potential causes for China. 

Would be good to know why it simply cannot have come from there, and that it's just a huge coincidence that there were 3 labs nearby studying corona viruses. 

[Heartofice]

On the WHO, it has also just recommended the AZ Oxford vaccine for the over 65s, and seems to agree with the British position in regards to gaps between doses.
 

[IheartIheartTesla]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/10/japan-pfizer-vaccine-doses-wrong-syringes

Quote

Millions of people in Japan will not receive Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine as planned due to a shortage of specialist syringes – an oversight that could frustrate the country’s inoculation programme.

Standard syringes in use in Japan are unable to extract the sixth and final dose from each vial manufactured by the US drugmaker, according to the health minister, Norihisa Tamura.

Thats 1/6th of 72 million (144 million presumes doses, or 72 million innocculated) people unable to be vaccinated, so they're short 12 million. I have to say, vaccine rollout has had many more issues than vaccine production itself.

[Caligula_K3]

Thanks for your answers about the North American decline in cases, everyone. It is true that even in places with no restrictions, people might just be be more careful now than they were in late fall/early Winter. Though we'll see how these numbers jump after the Super Bowl... some of the videos I've seen of packed clubs and bars and parties are insane; so different from what my life has been this past year that I have trouble believing my eyes.

Let's hope these variants aren't too awful as they gain hold in North America. The interesting thing is that places like Britain and South Africa seem to be following the same pattern as places in North America, even with their variants; massive spikes around late November to early January followed by decline in cases, perhaps due to increased social distancing measures and conscientiousness. The same is true for a place like Portugal that got hit with the British variant, though slightly later, with their spike starting in mid-December.

 

[ljkeane]

24 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/10/japan-pfizer-vaccine-doses-wrong-syringes

Thats 1/6th of 72 million (144 million presumes doses, or 72 million innocculated) people unable to be vaccinated, so they're short 12 million. I have to say, vaccine rollout has had many more issues than vaccine production itself.

In fairness Pfizer have apparently fairly recently changed how they're counting the doses per vial. So they're now counting the same amount of vaccine as 6 doses rather than 5 which seems a little dodgy to me. So I'm not entirely sure that's the Japanese authorities fault.

[Fragile Bird]

10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/10/japan-pfizer-vaccine-doses-wrong-syringes

Thats 1/6th of 72 million (144 million presumes doses, or 72 million innocculated) people unable to be vaccinated, so they're short 12 million. I have to say, vaccine rollout has had many more issues than vaccine production itself.

I’m really really getting annoyed with the Guardian’s Covid-19 coverage. Some facts would be really useful. “Japan has secured 144 M doses of the Pfizer vaccine” means what? Is that like “Canada has secured enough vaccine to vaccinate it’s population 5x”? Without mentioning Canada has actually only “secured” 1.24 M doses? How much vaccine does Japan actually have? Since the US only has about 30 M Pfizer doses so far I don’t think Japan has and is discarding millions of doses. Besides that, they have ordered the special needles which will arrive sooner or later.

I’m surprised that the Guardian didn’t also mention Japan has “secured” 90 M doses of the AZ vaccine, which is being manufactured at the AZ plant in Japan.

Canada has had to order the special needles as well. I don’t think Pfizer told countries they needed them. In the meantime, even without the special needles being available lots of countries are reporting they are getting 6 doses. There are several provinces in Canada regularly reporting they have given 110% of their received vaccine. That will change going forward because Canada has agreed to changing the labels to say 6 doses instead of 5 doses, as other countries have as well.

And, btw, can someone in the medical field explain to me why they would discard vaccine? I assume that every person gets a new needle for their shot, so a different needle is inserted into the vial five times. Why can’t you withdraw as much as is left from one vial and then use the same needle to remove what is left in a second vial, if you didn’t get a full sixth dose? Somewhere I saw something about a fear of contamination, but how would you contaminate the second vial? If there was contamination on the lid, there’s contamination that contaminated  all the doses you took out. Surely they are swabbed each time?

 

[Zorral]

https://slate.com/technology/2021/02/vaccine-chasers-wait-your-turn.html

Quote

 

....Our clinics serve more than 100,000 people, most of whom are Latino and Black, and many of whom are extremely low income. We are the largest COVID-19 vaccine provider in South L.A., and we have provided more than 20,000 vaccines over the past three weeks to health care workers and seniors—mostly people of color—from the area. Despite the fact that California is still in Phase 1B of vaccine distribution, in which largely only health care workers and seniors are qualified to receive it, every day, hundreds of mostly white, unqualified Westside residents are flooding our clinics.

They line up with lawn chairs and laptops before the vaccine clinic is even open. They demand to use our bathrooms, and their presence blocks seniors and health care workers from easily accessing our vaccine clinics. They heckle and intimidate our staff members, all of whom are Latino and/or Black. They threaten to “call the newspapers” because we won’t let them cut the line. One man even spit at a security guard who wouldn’t let him cut in front of an 82-year-old Black woman who had an appointment.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been forced to double the number of security staff to manage the crowds. I suspect that stories of providers throwing vaccines away or doses going to people who are in the right place at the right time are to blame for all these people showing up. But our clinics never trash vaccines or give them out to lucky bystanders. We have a pool of local residents, mostly seniors, whom we would bring in if there were no-shows or leftover doses.

It’s not just physical mobs. These young white people have also figured out how to outsmart California’s vaccine appointment software. The system, which is clunky and inefficient, has a loophole that allows non–health care workers and nonseniors to make appointments by clicking “Other” when asked about their age and profession. They go onto the system as soon as the appointments are posted and book them up—there’s no way right now to automatically screen these people out. When health care workers finally get home from working all day and try to schedule an appointment, the slots are often all full.

The other week, several hundred first-shot appointments were made by self-identified white, non–health care workers for our clinics alone, preventing hundreds of qualified health care workers and seniors from accessing appointments. Luckily we caught it before the vaccine clinic operations began, since we noticed many appointments checked “Other” were accompanied with birthdates that made it clear they were not seniors. But we had to spend hours and hours of staff time calling to verify the patients’ information before canceling their appointments and replacing them with seniors who were on waitlists. The website clearly needs to be fixed, but we’ve been alarmed at the selfishness that has seeped through the cracks in the system. Gumming up a severely strained health care system as we try to deliver lifesaving resources to those who need them most could cost people their health, or worse.

 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

I'm concerned that the infection rate numbers aren't as great as they appear. They appear to be dropping fantastically. I just have this foreboding fear it's another dip before yet another wave of pain.

Hopefully I'm very wrong and were inching towards the light at the end of a tunnel of terror.

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I think there is obviously a long way to go when it comes to discovering where the virus came from. From what I've seen though, the WHO have made very few conclusions as to it's origin, but one thing they are ruling out it seems is that it escaped from the lab in Wuhan. I have to admit that seems a little suspicious, that they were able to rule it out so easily, it being the most damning of all the potential causes for China. 

Would be good to know why it simply cannot have come from there, and that it's just a huge coincidence that there were 3 labs nearby studying corona viruses. 

Don't know if this is what was done, but you could probably rule it out as a lab virus by looking at the genomic sequences of all the viruses the labs were/are studying and if there isn't an extremely close match with the original genome of SARS-CoV-2 then it's a pretty strong rule out. Not to say a lab wouldn't destroy all evidence it was working with the virus, but if the evidence is gone, then there is no proof. 

 

[Clueless Northman]

4 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/10/japan-pfizer-vaccine-doses-wrong-syringes

Thats 1/6th of 72 million (144 million presumes doses, or 72 million innocculated) people unable to be vaccinated, so they're short 12 million. I have to say, vaccine rollout has had many more issues than vaccine production itself.

As said above, it's actually Pfizer who acts dodgy as fuck in this case. Countries bought X doses from Pfizer, Pfizer says "we deliver them in vials of 5 doses, so get your lazy asses up and get the required syringes for these vials". Then later it turns out that you can actually squeeze another dose from these vial, but to do it, you need to use different syringes. Pfizer studies the trick and smells profit. So now, instead of the original plan wich was "We deliver you 1mio vaccines in 200K vials" and to update this as "We deliver you 200K vials and you can actually try to get 1.2mio vaccines out of them, isn't that great?", Pfizer says "We deliver you 1mio vaccines in 167K vials". They're basically making 1/6 profit out of their deliveries, and are from now on delivering 1/6 less vials than originally planned. And since the change is very recent, plenty of countries just don't have the new syringes, and have huge amounts of the other ones that won't be needed anymore.

I'm surprised the European union hasn't made a temper tantrum about that, because it's actually more clear-cut than their spat with Astra-Zeneca.

[Heartofice]

34 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Don't know if this is what was done, but you could probably rule it out as a lab virus by looking at the genomic sequences of all the viruses the labs were/are studying and if there isn't an extremely close match with the original genome of SARS-CoV-2 then it's a pretty strong rule out. Not to say a lab wouldn't destroy all evidence it was working with the virus, but if the evidence is gone, then there is no proof. 

 

I would be very surprised if the lab would have offered up evidence incriminating them. I'm not sure I would be ruling it out just because you couldn't find anything from the lab, or asking the scientists 'did you do it?'