Covid-19 #25: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

[The Anti-Targ]

Well, mere hours before the govt was going to make a decision on moving alert levels we got a report of 2 new cases, connected to the index case (there is still no certainty on the index case, since the mother and daughter were diagnosed at the same time and while the mother's connection to the border makes her the most likely index case, they can't rule out the daughter picking it up from some unknown source elsewhere).

The reason I mention the uncertainty with the daughter possibly being the index case is that these 2 new cases are from the school the daughter attends. This is a cause of concern for 2 reasons: it massively widens the potential contacts pool; and it lends a bit of credence to the daughter being the index case and not the mother, which means there could be UK variant strain cycling through the population from an unknown source. I think unless they can definitively conclude that the mother is the index case Auckland needs to stay at its current alert level. So while there was hope the alert level would drop from tomorrow I don't think the govt can bow to the political pressure that might start to build demanding it and they need to stick to level 3. Being the UK strain and being more transmissible, albeit the extent to which it is not being precisely known, that also indicates the need for caution on when restrictions are lifted.

In terms of numbers, which is somewhat of a measure of remaining risk, 76 out of 128 identified close contacts of the index case(s) have been tested, all but one being negative. So about 1/3 of close contacts are still to have test results confirmed. There is a reasonable risk that at least one of those remaining close contacts will test positive. There are nearly 1500 identified casual contacts and approx 1200 have been tested negative, one of the confirmed cases is classed as a casual contact being a sibling to a close contact. So 300 casual contacts remaining. A reasonably low risk of any of those 300 being positive, but it's still a possibility. I am not sure if casual contacts are being required to self isolate. But close contacts and their immediate household have been self isolating since the index case(s) were detected. [I should probably say "likely index case(s)"]

Contact tracing to identify close contacts for the 2 new cases is underway, but no numbers reported yet. Probably a decent amount of overlap, but no doubt several more people will be identified as close contacts of the new cases.

[Zorral]

"Dr. Fauci shifts the timeline on when the general public will be able to get a vaccine"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

Also Dr. Fauci wins prize for his c-19 work:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

[The Anti-Targ]

new post since it's a change in topic. 110,000,000 confirmed cases hit today. 10 million cases were confirmed on 25 June 2020. it took more or less 6 months to go from zero to 10 million. It took only 8 months to add a further 100 million cases. 15 February was the first time <300,000 cases were reported globally in a single day since 12 Oct 2020. In the run up to the first 10 million cases the highest daily confirmed cases was ~185K on 19 June. The last time the global daily case number was below 200K was 6 July 2020. The last time the global daily was under 100K was 26 may 2020.

We can probably start to feel like things are really on the improve when the global daily tally stays below 200K for an extended period of time. we can probably start to feel like we've got this thing pretty well licked if the global dailies drops below 100K more or less permanently. What are the odds of reaching that <100K in 2021? I think we have a better than even chance of it.

All data from Worldometers.

[The Anti-Targ]

21 minutes ago, Zorral said:

"Dr. Fauci shifts the timeline on when the general public will be able to get a vaccine"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

Also Dr. Fauci wins prize for his c-19 work:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

That likely means the timeline for countries like us will be delayed somewhat as well. We'll get supplies for the gen pop as and when sufficiency for USA and similar countries is achieved. Though I hope all of our at risk populations will get vaccinated soonish.

[Fragile Bird]

On the weekend I did a lengthy post about about Trump’s EO and the vaccines funded under Warp Speed, because I was trying to figure out what vaccines were blocked. Unfortunately I looked at a new post while I was doing it and it got eaten, and I was so annoyed I didn’t redo it.

The search was triggered by the question posed a few pages ago about J&J vaccine manufactured in Europe being shipped to the US for final preparation, filling the vials, and whether it would be seized by the US. EO 13962, s.1, states: “...Americans have priority access to COVID-19 vaccines developed in the United States or procured by the United States Government”. A person might wonder if vaccine manufactured in Europe and shipped to the US for final preparation might not get shipped back to Europe.

Everyone in Canada was holding their breath when we found out that our Pfizer vaccine was being shipped not from Germany to Canada but to the US, and then shipped to Canada. That wording sure made it sound like Trump could order our doses to stay in the US for US use, and, you know, it was Trump. However, they got transferred onto planes headed to Canada, so I am going to assume J&J vaccine made in Europe for other countries and shipped to the US for finishing will be shipped out to those other countries.

This becomes important because, as I found out in my research, J&J is facing manufacturing issues, just like Pfizer and Moderna. US doses are being made at Emergent BioSolutions in Maryland. 10 M doses are supposed to be delivered by the end of March but it now looks like it will only be able to make 2 M doses. Dr. Fauci has come out and said the timeline for US vaccinations may be slower because if this.

[The Anti-Targ]

7 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

To me, CBD oil has a lot of unknowns. Including the fact of it may not be all that pure and can ping you on a drug test. Now, working for a hedge fund, they practically expect us to be doing blow and god knows what else (Adderall, likely) so my employer does not drug test us. But, Cobb County cops love to claim that people are driving impaired when they aren’t, and the only way to beat that is going to the hospital with them and getting a blood draw (the fuckers still have the vehicle impounded). 

And humans are evolved to eat fish, and meat...I just choose not to. But, if a cod has to die so my knees don’t snap-crackle-pop and hurt like hell, I’d catch it myself.

One cod liver capsule a day it is!!! 

Even though you can no doubt get CD oil over the counter, if you had written medical advice from your doctor that CBD oil is recommended to help manage your condition, then it should be an automatic defence on any THC drug test that comes up with a low level positive. Though the zealousness with which some people approach anything associated with weed, even having a doctor's letter might not stop them trying to apply the maximum penalty available to them.

[The Anti-Targ]

5 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yeah, a doctor’s letter is not going to be a defense against impaired driving.

Just like how alcohol is legal, but you’d better not drive after drinking.

The problem with a THC potential ping is that it does stay in the system for a while. So not something I want to take a chance on.

Oddly enough, I do have a friend who pinged for THC at a drug test at his doctor’s office. This is because stuff like Adderall requires a urine test so they can tell if you are taking it and not selling it. His CBD candy habit came up as THC and they had to tell him to try again in a week   And he doesn’t smoke or anything - just the CBD. My son got him a card about “recovery”, and the whole office signed it “stay clean bro” and such.

If you only have THC in your system from taking CBD oil then you are not going to be impaired for driving. Just like alcohol and driving impairment, it's not a presence / absence thing. Presence needs to be above a threshold for it to be considered impairment. Even CBD products with relatively poor purity won't get you to impairment levels [ETA: I'm guessing]. If your drug driving laws are based on presence / absence then every right-minded person should be demanding a change in the law to establish an impairment threshold.

[The Anti-Targ]

19 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yeah, probably not going to happen because the police like arrests and the voters like to feel “safe”.

Its the same with alcohol. Most people have the misinformation that there’s a “legal limit of 0.08”. Which is to some extent true. That’s DUI per se. There’s “any amount of alcohol below 0.08” where you get charged with “DUI less safe”. It has all the same penalties as if you were stumbling and slurring and DUI per se.

Differences in jurisdictions I suppose. Our legal limit is that, the legal limit. If you are under it, then you can't be charged for DUI. If you caused an accident and were found with any amount of alcohol in your blood then this might be regarded as having a contributory effect, but it would not be a separate DUI charge, it would just be a factor in considering the penalty for having caused the accident.

On topic, since we should stop talking about weed and booze so much in the COVID thread, research has suggested that 25% of NZers are unlikely to take the vaccine. This is disappointingly high, but it it probably just tolerable to get us to sufficient levels of immunity to not cause problems for our health system, or major outbreaks. but it won't stop clusters from happening. But bugger them, those that don't get vaccinated deserve what they get, and the rest of us will still be protected and our lives should not suffer any disruption from the low levels of disease circulation that will result.

I do expect in the end that >75% of people will get vaccinated. Our true anti-vax population is no where near 25%, so a lot of that 25% is people just being a bit wary of such a hastily deployed vaccine. In a year or so most of them will have come around to accepting its safety and efficacy, and I think we should get close to 90%. Maybe I'm being too optimistic.

I am facing a bit of a personal dilemma. I have a friend (not a close friend, but still a friend) who is so vehemently anti big pharma that he said he's going to refuse to get vaccinated. He's not technically anti-vax, because he still accepts the science that vaccination works and doesn't turn you into a gibbering idiot or a zombie, or a Gates/Soros automaton. But still the outcome, refusing to be vaccinated is, to all intents and purposes, the same. So since I have declared my utter disdain for anti-vaxxers, should I be taking a similar approach to this person? I am also anti big pharma in a lot of respects, but I am going to avail myself of the products of big pharma when it is going to be of significant benefit to my personal or community health, I just might grumble a lot about the obscene profits being made as a result.

[Week]

18 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Hey, weed and booze are both supposed to lower your inhibitions and make you more likely to catch covid  lol. 

Indica only - sativas are banned until after the pandemonium.

[The Anti-Targ]

28 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Hey, weed and booze are both supposed to lower your inhibitions and make you more likely to catch covid  lol. 

Truly on topic, though, your friend sounds like a real grouch. See what happens when he really gets the opportunity to take the vaccine. If he refuses, I’d lose a lot of respect for him if he were my friend. 

I personally avail myself of the products of Big Pharma every chance I get. If it weren’t for Big Pharma, I probably would be in severe TMJ pain on a daily basis and unable to chew. Botox injections and occasional muscle relaxers gave me my life back (along with surgery).

Interesting you say grouch, because he is about 70, so grouch is commonly used for people in that age demo. Though in general he is not a grouch at all, just on this matter.

[JoannaL]

2 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I also need to take back anything I ever said about viruses typically mutating to less lethality. Apparently, that’s only been true in modern times.

Smallpox, everyone’s favorite demon living in two freezers (in the US and Russia) was found to have probably mutated from the Plague of Justinian to its (currently non-occurring) form by choosing humans as its sole host and actually gaining lethality.

Humans as a sole host was a mistake for smallpox.

Unfortunately we already know that the Coronavirus survives in a lot of species like bats where it evolved from but also cats and other felines and mink and such. No luck here. On the long run we will have to live with it, also the countries that do not have it yet (though they are smart to stay closed until there are enough vaccines).

About living with it: the discussion here focuses more on rapid testing (not PCR, results in 15 min) the last few days. there seemed to be enough now for everyone all the time. They will be available here free of charge for everyone March 1, but only done by a professional. Hopefully from the middle of March there will be also tests available for self use (we will see if that really is implemented). Some other countries already started self testing. Any experience any of you can share already? I have heard that Austria uses a rapid self use test for all schoolchildren (twice a week done directly in school), Does it work? That would be so helpful.

[Heartofice]

One thing to think about is that even if there are a high number of anti vaxxer types who refuse to take the jab, those people will also be more likely to catch the virus naturally ( due them also being less interested in observing social distancing etc) and provide their own level of immunity...  so problem solved 

[rotting sea cow]

I think people freak too much about antivaxxer. The hard-core ones are probably a tiny minority that would make them epidemiologically irrelevant. There is however a larger number of people distrustful of government actions (not without reason sometimes). Governments instead of trying to fight off the first type, should try to behave to convince the second type. Threatening vaccine deniers with making them outcast will only give reason the first type and enrage the second. Governments should focus in transparency and efficient organization of the vaccine campaign. It's still too early to be really preoccupied for the effect of antivaxxing sentiments. Roll-out the damn thing to whomever would take it and look back when you are done.

[The Anti-Targ]

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think people freak too much about antivaxxer. The hard-core ones are probably a tiny minority that would make them epidemiologically irrelevant. There is however a larger number of people distrustful of government actions (not without reason sometimes). Governments instead of trying to fight off the first type, should try to behave to convince the second type. Threatening vaccine deniers with making them outcast will only give reason the first type and enrage the second. Governments should focus in transparency and efficient organization of the vaccine campaign. It's still too early to be really preoccupied for the effect of antivaxxing sentiments. Roll-out the damn thing to whomever would take it and look back when you are done.

I don't know about that. Tell it to the people who died from measles before COVID hit in the Pacific because the anti-vax movement helped to reduce vaccination rates in NZ to below herd immunity levels to cause somewhat of an epidemic here, and they wormed their way into the ears of some Pacific leaders curtailed vaccination campaigns and so had a substantial vulnerable population when the outbreak here inevitably spread to those Pacific islands.

Quote

83 deaths, out of a Samoan population of 200,874

On 6 July 2018 on the east coast of Savai'i, two 12-month-old children died after receiving MMR vaccinations.^[8] The cause of death was incorrect preparation of the vaccine by two nurses who mixed vaccine powder with expired anaesthetic instead of the appropriate diluent.^[19] These two deaths were picked up by anti-vaccine groups and used to incite fear towards vaccination on social media, causing the government to suspend its measles vaccination programme for ten months, despite advice from the WHO.^[20][21] The incident caused many Samoan residents to lose trust in the healthcare system.^[22]

After the outbreak started, anti-vaxxers credited the deaths to poverty and poor nutrition or even to the vaccine itself, but this has been discounted by the international emergency medical support that arrived in November and December.^[8] There has been no evidence of acute malnutrition, clinical vitamin A deficiency or immune deficiency as claimed by various anti-vaxxers.^[8]

It started from a tragic instance of negligence. But it wouldn't have gone far if the wrong people hadn't had influential sway over the population at large and government leaders.

My own best friend was hesitant about getting his son MMR vaccinated because of the myths being perpetuated about it, until I slammed him for listening to unscientific bullshit. He wasn't anti-vax, but the dis-information campaign had him wondering if there might be something to it.

[Clueless Northman]

4 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I also need to take back anything I ever said about viruses typically mutating to less lethality. Apparently, that’s only been true in modern times.

Smallpox, everyone’s favorite demon living in two freezers (in the US and Russia) was found to have probably mutated from the Plague of Justinian to its (currently non-occurring) form by choosing humans as its sole host and actually gaining lethality.

Plague of Justinian was genuine plague, according to the few descriptions we have. On the other, earlier Antonine Plague probably was smallpox.

Still, plague and Spanish flu strain seem to have become less lethal over time among others. Smallpox as well, but it might be because only people with some level of resistance survived it back in the time. But this takes decades, and usually the evolutionary pressure not to kill the host is only there if the disease is a nasty killer that can wipe out most of the host population. I can't see how 1% lethality can actually be reduced by mere evolutionary pressure; the ratio is just too low. Ebola, on the other hand, could become less lethal in the long run - or could have, in ancient times, not sure how our current global world would influence it.

 

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

One thing to think about is that even if there are a high number of anti vaxxer types who refuse to take the jab, those people will also be more likely to catch the virus naturally ( due them also being less interested in observing social distancing etc) and provide their own level of immunity...  so problem solved 

Yeah, I've always been of the opinion that idiots caught without masks where they're mandatory should get a PCR test asap, and should be quarantined until the results arrive, because if you're going to do random testing in the hopes of picking some undetected cases, these fools are the ones who are most likely to be infected.

[HoodedCrow]

Bid pharma does some things well, if there is enough money in it for them. They make some bad “mistakes”, such as doing studies where the people with the most side effects drop out and are not counted, not reporting null results, quoting faulty studies, ignoring international and perhaps more truthful studies, exaggerating effectiveness, expanding the target( for example, cholesterol drugs keep going for lower endpoints, when the results are not impressive and often unnecessary, and do not increase longevity, with side effects) controlling the pockets if journal publishers, creating new uses for drugs approved for other things, selling doctors on hype and junkets, using very misleading statistics, using poor and rigid guidlines, testing on people improperly, using adult drugs on children, ignoring suicides,not quoting studies that show contradictions to their products, with doctors either unaware on in denial,of short or long term consequences. Doctors using their own wares. I’m pretty sure that at least two of the doctors that I saw were on something. Still, there are a few good ones, and I am pro vaccination, and am for any drug that works well for an individual.

That said, if I can get a vaccine I will take it. I expect that there will be different rounds of inoculations, a booster every x number of months or taking vaccines tailored to various mutations...like the flu shots.

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm not entirely convinced that big pharma needs to be the model for anything in the health sector really. Universities with pharmacological schools given decent research grants and financial returns for making pharma breakthroughs could provide just as good output as the current big pharma model. Money and profits isn't the only motivator in healthcare and science. So yes, big pharma has provided a lot of very useful drugs and vaccines. But we didn't need big pharma for them to be discovered and put to good use. Indeed a different model might have avoided most or potentially all of the well documented and proven bad stuff that big pharma has done.

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 But we didn't need big pharma for them to be discovered and put to good use. Indeed a different model might have avoided most or potentially all of the well documented and proven bad stuff that big pharma has done.

Indeed. Some of the most powerful, versatile drugs come from a weed grown in the ground. But because it can't be patented, here in the UK, we're not allowed to use it.

 

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm not entirely convinced that big pharma needs to be the model for anything in the health sector really. 

Oxford University initially promised to donate the rights to its promising coronavirus vaccine to any drugmaker.  But then sold them to AstraZeneca (encouraged by Bill Gates, who is a big believer in intellectual property).

Now there is a question about whether Big Pharma would have made a vaccine if it didn't own the IP (or wasn't being paid to make the thing) but maybe that is where government funding could have come in.  See here.  It is an interesting take given how supply is the main issue right now.

Anyhow, there is a lot going on right now.  I read that Curevac and GSK are working on developing another vaccine that would target several variants with one shot.  That is ignoring Curevac' promising current candidate.  And Novavax is making progress with its option.  An we should hear positive news on approval from J&J in the coming weeks.  Even if J&J will have supply issues, like everyone else.  Still, 3 more options is good.

[BigFatCoward]

Shit, I havent been paying attention to anyone else for a while, but worldometer is showing the US as just having gone through 0.5 million deaths.