Covid-19 #25: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

[rotting sea cow]

People are humans with physical, social, psychological and sexual needs and therefore they will go around the government restrictions to go on with their lives the best they can. But politicians are in most part sociopaths and narcissists (or both) and they don't want to understand that. So, if they decree a lockdown they want to see photos of empty streets and few masked people distance 10m away, so the media feed them and they all congratulate themselves, even if the park 100m away of that photo was packed. They want to read that the numbers are going down so restriction work, if the numbers go up, they find another thing to blame, but never their own blindness.

[rotting sea cow]

We are not done with the AstraZeneca drama

 

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

People are humans with physical, social, psychological and sexual needs and therefore they will go around the government restrictions to go on with their lives the best they can. But politicians are in most part sociopaths and narcissists (or both) and they don't want to understand that. So, if they decree a lockdown they want to see photos of empty streets and few masked people distance 10m away, so the media feed them and they all congratulate themselves, even if the park 100m away of that photo was packed. They want to read that the numbers are going down so restriction work, if the numbers go up, they find another thing to blame, but never their own blindness.

True, but it also raises a question of how much control a government in western societies can really have over their populace. Right now it's understood that there are a series of levers governments can pull to affect the R number.. but in reality that is all just wishful thinking.

I think there is a reason the UK has had to shift from one system to another to try and have any real effect on the transmission levels, and that's because people are mostly going to decide on their own what their level of risk is. It was only a serious, heavy handed lockdown that appears to have any real effect, and even then it's debatable as to how much effect it really had as cases and deaths continued to be high throughout it, because I just don't think it's as easy as all that for governments to control behaviour.

[BigFatCoward]

36 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I have to say, my experience in semi-rural Gloucestershire is extremely different - yourself and HOI are both London yes?.

You see the odd group who look suspiciously similar aged, but they're few and far between; mostly see quite a lot of couples, usually masked, and pretty much everyone is giving wide berths when passing.
I've yet to see a group stop to chat and NOT keep 2m+ part; and hardly ever see a bench being used.

I'm live in semi rural oxfordshite. London is so bad it's not even worth discussing. 

Social distancing is ok, it's the meeting up with other households that is clearly being breached.

 

[Fragile Bird]

29 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

We are not done with the AstraZeneca drama

 

Oh, look! India might be imitating the US and the UK!

And I’m laughing out loud once again about that Guardian article about Canada! And the article about the 25 richest countries in the world and how they must pay for vaccine, and now the vaccine producer everyone is depending on might be restricted!

That’s not a “hahaha funny” laugh either.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/22/scotland-covid-vaccination-drive-linked-to-big-drop-in-hospital-admissions

Quote

Scotland vaccination drive linked to big drop in hospital admissions
Pfizer jab cuts risk of admission by up to 85% four weeks after first dose, while AstraZeneca jab cuts risk by 94%, study finds.

One dose of vaccine against Covid-19 in Scotland has cut hospital admissions by more than 85%, according to the first data to be published on the impact of the UK programme.
...

 

[Fragile Bird]

2 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/22/scotland-covid-vaccination-drive-linked-to-big-drop-in-hospital-admissions

 

Great news about AZ in that article - that may mean there will be good news from the US trial! 
 

All the negative news about the AZ vaccine makes people worried that they will be “stuck” with it. When the news about Canada drawing on their COVAX share came out I heard more than a few people say things like “if I go for a vaccine shot and they tell me it’s AZ, I’d walk out”. Mind you, that’s all speculative because there is no vaccine here. We’re going to start vaccinating people 80 and older next month.

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Great news about AZ in that article - that may mean there will be good news from the US trial! 
 

All the negative news about the AZ vaccine makes people worried that they will be “stuck” with it. When the news about Canada drawing on their COVAX share came out I heard more than a few people say things like “if I go for a vaccine shot and they tell me it’s AZ, I’d walk out”. Mind you, that’s all speculative because there is no vaccine here. We’re going to start vaccinating people 80 and older next month.

Clearly that is the case in countries like Germany where much of the bad press, led by politicians, has led to many AZ vaccines being left on the shelf.

Having said that one of my friends has said he would be more accepting of taking the AZ vaccine due to it not being an MRNA vaccine like some others 

[Chaircat Meow]

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/22/scotland-covid-vaccination-drive-linked-to-big-drop-in-hospital-admissions

 

 

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Great news about AZ in that article - that may mean there will be good news from the US trial! 
 

All the negative news about the AZ vaccine makes people worried that they will be “stuck” with it. When the news about Canada drawing on their COVAX share came out I heard more than a few people say things like “if I go for a vaccine shot and they tell me it’s AZ, I’d walk out”. Mind you, that’s all speculative because there is no vaccine here. We’re going to start vaccinating people 80 and older next month.

The article also says they mainly used the Oxford Jab on the over-80s where there was an 81% reduction (combined figure for both vaccines) in people being hospitalised.*  This would very much suggest the Aztrazeneca vaccine is effective in older age groups and certain foolish people should probably eat their words, especially as they damaged public confidence. 

*However, they were not counting people who died in care homes who did not go to hospital before they passed away.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

According to my parent the SII director is somewhat brash and grandiose, but I cant find anything quantitative about exactly what it is his org and the Indian government are thinking about regarding Indian needs vis-a-vis the rest of the world. I do see he tweeted recently about his conversation with Trudeau and how he was committed to getting Canada their promised doses...by next month, I think.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

 

The article also says they mainly used the Oxford Jab on the over-80s where there was 81% an reduction (combined figure for both vaccines) in people being hospitalised.*  This would very much suggest the Aztrazeneca vaccine is effective in older age groups and certain foolish people should probably eat their words, especially as they damaged public confidence. 

*However, they were not counting people who died in care homes who did not go to hospital before they passed away.

 

I was given the AZ vaccine (I’m 41 though in classed as vulnerable due to having been on immune-suppressants) so glad to see the vaccine has been effective. It’s been two weeks since I got the first dose so should kick in next week.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

This would very much suggest the Aztrazeneca vaccine is effective in older age groups and certain foolish people should probably eat their words, especially as they damaged public confidence. 

I don't get this.  From my understanding, there were some flaws in the original studies done by AZ.  (The US are unlikely to approve its use until April because of this).  Based on the lack of evidence regarding its efficacy on older people, a lot of countries choose not to use the vaccine on their older population.  That decision was science led. 

There is now better evidence of its efficacy.  Those countries would clearly be foolish if they ignored the new evidence but in what way were they actually "foolish" originally?   You could argue "over cautious" at best.

There was also some concerns in the Guardian article about whether waiting for 12 weeks is the right approach when it comes to the Pfizer vaccine.  The science has not shown that is the right approach yet.  If in 3 weeks time it does, that decision wasn't foolish either.

It's unfortunate that AZ has generated negative publicity.  But Moderna/Pfizer didn't have those issues with their studies.  We can blame the media also for exaggerating things but is anyone surprised that the media did that?

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Clearly that is the case in countries like Germany where much of the bad press, led by politicians,

Led by politicians?  That sounds incorrect.

This article talks about the issues with India also.  Although, not much more details.  India is such a big country that it prioritising its needs would certainly cause a major delay.  Right now, 0.8% of its population has been vaccinated.  But still the 4th biggest country in terms of raw vaccine numbers.

And this gives a lot of interesting info about the J&J vaccine.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Well, again per my parents they are vaccinating ~300k per day so surely unless the rate of vaccination is ramped up, there must be room to do both, supply externally as well as keep vaccinating internally. I dont think it makes sense to hoard vaccines while the rest of the world is ready to vaccinate.

Then again, many other countries are doing the same. Also, 300k/day is about a quarter of what the US does, and India needs maybe 4 times more people vaccinated, so they are 16x times slower than my adopted country. Might want to consider the consequences of that when of the 7 billion humans, a fifth of them are behind the 8-ball.

[Padraig]

27 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Also, 300k/day is about a quarter of what the US does, and India needs maybe 4 times more people vaccinated, so they are 16x times slower than my adopted country. Might want to consider the consequences of that when of the 7 billion humans, a fifth of them are behind the 8-ball.

Yup.  When India has less than 1% vaccinated, you can't blame them for wanting to get as many vaccines as possible.  But you can't blame other countries for being unnerved by it also. 

I wonder what they are supposed to do contractually.  Although, the country with the factories certainly seems to have the advantage there.  It'll be interesting to see what the WHO says regarding COVAX.

[Fragile Bird]

10 minutes ago, Padraig said:

This article talks about the issues with India also.  Although, not much more details.  India is such a big country that it prioritising its needs would certainly cause a major delay.  Right now, 0.8% of its population has been vaccinated.  But still the 4th biggest country in terms of raw vaccine numbers.

And this gives a lot of interesting info about the J&J vaccine.

I hadn’t realized the AZ vaccine is now being called Covishield.

As for prioritizing India, the hundreds of millions of doses are made possible largely because nations around the world have paid upfront for them, right? Like the EU did, perhaps, 3/4 now, 1/4 on delivery? I haven’t seen any of those details. I always assumed that distribution would be 50/50, split between the funding nations and the recipient nations. The Chinese have administered 40 M doses and are still supplying countries around the world. Brazil has received it’s AZ vaccine from India.

I saw an article with a map showing where countries were getting vaccines from, but I can’t find it right now. I’ll see if I can dig it up.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

I don't get this.  From my understanding, there were some flaws in the original studies done by AZ.  (The US are unlikely to approve its use until April because of this).  Based on the lack of evidence regarding its efficacy on older people, a lot of countries choose not to use the vaccine on their older population.  That decision was science led. 

There is now better evidence of its efficacy.  Those countries would clearly be foolish if they ignored the new evidence but in what way were they actually "foolish" originally?   You could argue "over cautious" at best.

There was also some concerns in the Guardian article about whether waiting for 12 weeks is the right approach when it comes to the Pfizer vaccine.  The science has not shown that is the right approach yet.  If in 3 weeks time it does, that decision wasn't foolish either.

It's unfortunate that AZ has generated negative publicity.  But Moderna/Pfizer didn't have those issues with their studies.  We can blame the media also for exaggerating things but is anyone surprised that the media did that?

Led by politicians?  That sounds incorrect.

This article talks about the issues with India also.  Although, not much more details.  India is such a big country that it prioritising its needs would certainly cause a major delay.  Right now, 0.8% of its population has been vaccinated.  But still the 4th biggest country in terms of raw vaccine numbers.

And this gives a lot of interesting info about the J&J vaccine.

Emmanuel Macron claimed the Oxford vaccine was 'quasi-ineffective' for the over-65 year olds just hours before the EU's own regulator approved its use for all age groups.  He did not say there wasn't enough data from trials to be sure and so pending further research approval was being delayed, He said he had evidence the vaccine did not work as expected for certain ages. What he said was foolish and false.   

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Yup.  When India has less than 1% vaccinated, you can't blame them for wanting to get as many vaccines as possible.  But you can't blame other countries for being unnerved by it also. 

I wonder what they are supposed to do contractually.  Although, the country with the factories certainly seems to have the advantage there.  It'll be interesting to see what the WHO says regarding COVAX.

I think it's a serious blow to COVAX if India sticks to that decision. I'd dare to say that other factors played a role. For example, not long ago the WTO rejected a motion led by India and S. Africa to suspend IP protections related to products to fight the pandemic. They might be sore for that. I imagine India will try to provide vaccines to selected countries. If China and Russia can play the game, why not India?

[Altherion]

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Then again, many other countries are doing the same. Also, 300k/day is about a quarter of what the US does, and India needs maybe 4 times more people vaccinated, so they are 16x times slower than my adopted country. Might want to consider the consequences of that when of the 7 billion humans, a fifth of them are behind the 8-ball.

To be fair, the US is (surprisingly!) doing relatively well compared to most other countries. As far as I can tell, on a per capita basis, it is currently 4th behind Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. In absolute numbers of people vaccinated, the US is ahead of everyone -- including even much larger countries (e.g. China) and those using non-mRNA vaccines (which are easier to store, but less effective).

I'm kind of amazed that we had not outsourced all vaccine production yet so there are still places in the US where they can be manufactured, but this does mean that it's more or less the whole 7 billion that are behind the 8-ball, not just a fifth of them. Even the wealthy and technologically advanced EU is significantly lagging.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I imagine India will try to provide vaccines to selected countries. If China and Russia can play the game, why not India?

Yes.  You'd worry about what criteria they would use.  At least COVAX was focused on an equalitarian approach.

2 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Emmanuel Macron claimed the Oxford vaccine was 'quasi-ineffective' for the over-65 year olds just hours before the EU's own regulator approved its use for all age groups.  He did not say there wasn't enough data from trials to be sure and so pending further research approval was being delayed, He said he had evidence the vaccine did not work as expected for certain ages. What he said was foolish and false.   

I thought we were talking about German politicians.  But anyhow.

When you say "he said he had evidence the vaccine did not work as expected", it sounds like he was going to expose Astrazeneca with secret evidence.  I'm assuming he didn't actually say that.   What he did say...

Quote

"The real problem on AstraZeneca is that it doesn’t work the way we were expecting it to," Macron told a group of reporters, including POLITICO, in Paris. "We’re waiting for the EMA [European Medicines Agency] results, but today everything points to thinking it is quasi-ineffective on people older than 65, some say those 60 years or older."

He certainly wasn't 100% correct but there were a lot of rumors floating around at the time.  And given that a lot of countries in the EU didn't think it was appropriate for AZ to be given to older people, he certainly wasn't as "false" as you think.

[Zorral]

President Biden is addressing the nation in sorrowful observance that today we put up the number of recorded deaths here to covid at 500,017.